Tuesday, November 26, 2013

CLIMATE CHANGE NEWS FOR NOV. 2013

CC NEWS FOR NOV. 2013

In August the National Center for Science Education, which defends the teaching of evolution and climate change science in American schools, published a book titled, Reality Check: How Science Deniers Threaten Our Future.  Chapter 5, Hot Enough for You? The Heated Debate over a Warming Planet, can be obtained from http://ncse.com/book-excerpt in pdf format by clicking on 

It’s well worth reading if you want to understand the power and the influence of those who seek to keep burning fossil fuels regardless of the cost to others.

On Oct. 17 Medill Reports (Northwestern University) posted an article by Elizabeth McCarthy titled, Climate change poses a public health crisis - and opportunity.  Dr. Johnathan Patz, the Director of the Global Health Institute of the University of Wisconsin in Madison, spoke at a recent panel discussion at the Environmental Law and Policy Center at Northwestern.  He said, “This is, I think, the largest health crisis we’ve ever faced, but I also think it could be the greatest opportunity of the last century if we actually address climate change.”  “Swapping cars for bikes, for example, could help pedal away climate change, save a cyclist hundreds of dollars in fuel and provide a way to stay active and healthy.”  At: 

On Nov. 1 President Obama “established a Task Force on Climate Preparedness and Resilience to advise the Administration on how the Federal Government can respond to the needs of communities nationwide that are dealing with the impacts of climate change. The Task Force members include state, local and tribal leaders from across the country who will use their first-hand experiences in building climate preparedness and resilience in their communities to inform their recommendations to the Administration.”  Earlier he said, “we have a moral obligation to our children and future generations to leave them a planet that is not polluted or damaged.”  The task force includs Governors Markell of Delaware and O’Malley of Maryland - two of the states that will be seriously impacted by sea level rise and coastal storms.  At: http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/11/01/fact-sheet-executive-order-climate-preparedness

On. Nov. 11 Alister Doyle and Michael Szabo of Reuters posted an article titled, UPDATE 1-Philippine delegate fasts at climate talks to urge action after storm.  The article said, “The Philippine delegate at U.N. climate talks began a fast on Monday in protest at a lack of action on global warming that he blamed for fuelling a super typhoon that has killed an estimated 10,000 people in his country.”  “In line with many developing nations, he urged far tougher action to cut greenhouse gas emissions, led by the rich, and more funds to help the poor cope with the impacts of climate change, including a new mechanism for loss and damage.
"We can take drastic action now to ensure that we prevent a future where super typhoons become a way of life," he said, his voice choking with emotion. He won a standing ovation.”  At: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/11/climate-talks-idUSL5N0IW3G520131111
The Asbury Park Press posted an article by Wendy Koch on Nov. 12 titled, Climate poll: Most Americans say global warming real threat.  She wrote, “The vast majority of Americans in each of 40-plus states surveyed say global warming is real, serious and man-made.”  “At least 75 percent of U.S. adults say global warming has been happening, but the Stanford University research found that 84 percent or more took that view in states recently hit by drought — Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas — or vulnerable to sea-level rise: Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York and Rhode Island.”  “Majorities consistently said that the U.S. should take action regardless of what other countries do,” said author and professor Jon Krosnik, Director of Stanford’s Political Psychology Research Group.  At: http://www.app.com/article/20131113/NJNEWS17/311130033/Climate-poll-Most-Americans-say-global-warming-real-threat

On Nov. 12 Mother Jones posted an article by Tim McDonnell titled, Is Your State Ready for Climate Disasters?  It reports a study by Columbia University’s Center for Climate Change Law of the 50 State Hazard Mitigation Plans required by FEMA, which lay out the risks and protocols for handling catastrophes.  The article has a map showing states with little or no discussion of climate change in their disaster plans, and those with minimal, accurate but limited, and thorough discussions of climate change.  The states with the highest rating are Alaska, Hawaii, California, Oregon, Colorado, Maryland, New York and the New England states.  Sixteen states had no or inaccurate discussions.  You can find the map and the criteria used for the ratings at: http://www.motherjones.com/blue-marble/2013/11/your-state-ready-climate-disasters?fb_action_ids=10151956466578672&fb_action_types=og.likes&fb_source=other_multiline&action_object_map=%7B%2210151956466578672%22%3A608158802580898%7D&action_type_map=

On Nov. 12 the Wall Street Journal published a 6-page Journal Report titled, ENERGY - The Power of Tomorrow.  It describes how our energy system has changed and what it may look like in the future.  The articles discuss hydropower, nuclear energy, biofuels, deep-water oil drilling, the search for better batteries, and solar power.  It has a lot of good information - including photos, figures, and clippings from past WSJ articles about energy; it is well worth reading.  At: http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/print/WSJ_-R001-20131112.pdf

On Nov. 13 the Huffington Post posted an article titled, Massive Iceberg Drifting Off Coast Of Antarctica May Be A Problem.  It reported that a massive iceberg with an area of 270 square miles broke off Antarctica’s Pine Island Glacier days ago and is now drifting out of Pine Island Bay - posing a possible hazard to shipping.  A massive crack across the glacier - Antarctica’s largest outlet glacier - was observed by NASA scientists in Nov. 2011,  but it has just broken free enough to drift off this year.  Since it was already floating - though not freely - its breaking off will not directly raise sea levels, but its loss may cause the acceleration of ice flow behind it - like taking the cork out of a bottle might release a genie from inside.  Replacing the highly reflective ice and snow surface of the terminus of the glacier by much more light-absorbing seawater will also increase the rate of absorbtion of solar radiation and heating of the water during the Antarctic summer.  At: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/13/iceberg-drifting-antarctica-270-square-miles_n_4268643.html

The American Chemical Society (ACS) has posted the ACS Climate Science Toolkit - The fundamental science to help you understand and
communicate climate science.  It has six different sections: Energy Balance & Planetary Temperature, Atmospheric Warming, Greenhouse Gases, Oceans, Ice, & Rocks, References & Resources, and Narratives & Presentations.

The Climate Science Rapid Response Team provides a service of linking climate scientists - chosen for their expertise based on their peer-reviewed publications - with politicians and the media to make sure that they are getting accurate, up-to-date information.  It has a web page with a wonderful list of resources available to the general public, including reports, web sites, books, videos and blogs.  It’s one of the best sources of information I have seen, written so that can it be understood by non-experts.  At: 

Note: Another good source of information is the Resources section of the Toolkit for Climate Action written by the Climate Change Task Force of the US League of Women Voters.  It includes topics as wide ranging as public policy, economics, ethics, national security, public opinion and museum exhibits.  Check it out.  (I confess that I am a member of the Task Force.)

Some years ago private insurance companies stopped writing flood insurance policies, and that role was taken over by the federal National Flood Insurance Program (NIFP) of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).  The problem is that the NIFP has not been collecting nearly enough money in premiums to cover the payouts for flood damage.  With the Biggert-Waters Reform Act of 2012, the NIFP was required to raise premiums enough to cover payouts.  You can learn more about federal flood insurance at Floodsmart.gov.
Scientists expect flooding risks to increase because of more powerful hurricanes, higher storm surges and heavier rainfall events.  Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and the serious flooding in Colorado this year are harbingers of what is to come.

The following items are from the Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI), Carol Werner, Executive Director. Past issues of its newsletter are posted on its website under "publications"
 at http://www.eesi.org/publications/Newsletters/CCNews/ccnews.htm 
EESI’s newsletter is intended for all interested parties, particularly the policymaker community. 


EPA Begins Public Listening Sessions on Carbon Emissions Regulations

On October 23, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) began a series of 11 listening sessions that it will hold in cities around the country to gather feedback on its planned regulation of carbon emissions for existing power plants. The EPA will be soliciting comments on its use of section 111(d) of the federal Clean Air Act to limit the emission of carbon dioxide from the over 1,000 power plants currently operating. Northeastern states which are already using a carbon trading program that targets power plant emissions (the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative) are expected to argue that they are already compliant with section 111(d). California may also request that the EPA recognize their cap-and-trade system as compliant with section 111(d). States that have not yet implemented their own emissions laws “will likely try to incorporate the lowest cost reduction measures . . . [to] ensure that the program’s requirement’s won’t compromise the availability of affordable and reliable electricity,” said Jennifer Macedonia, a senior adviser to the Bipartisan Policy Center. People who wish to make comments at a listening session will be awarded three minutes each.
For additional information see: EPA, Huffington Post



Iowa Scientists Release Statement on Climate Change Impacts on Farming

On October 18, the 2013 Iowa Climate Statement was released at the Iowa Climate Science Educators’ Forum. Over 150 scientists across the state signed onto the call for climate change action. The statement argues that Iowa’s agricultural economy will be especially hard hit by future climate change. Iowa is the nation’s largest corn and soybean producer, so any impacts will have far-reaching consequences. Extreme weather events such as the state’s prolonged droughts in 2011 and 2012 and the excessive spring rains in 2013 have made the role of climate change in Iowa clear, according to Gene Takle, director of the Climate Science Program at Iowa State University. Takle noted that “the last couple of years have underscored the fact that we are very vulnerable to weather conditions and weather extremes in Iowa.” The scientists commented on the need for Iowa to address climate change, writing, “Iowa’s soils and agriculture remain our most important economic resources, but these resources are threatened by climate change. It is time for all Iowans to work together to limit future climate change and make Iowa more resilient to extreme weather. Doing so will allow us to pass on to future generations our proud tradition of helping to feed the world.”
For additional information see: Popular Science, Radio Iowa, Statement



Study Finds Decline of Global Climate Change Investment

On October 22, the Climate Policy Institute (CPI), a San Francisco-based analysis firm, released a new study that found global investments on renewable energy and other climate mitigation measures plateaued to $359 billion in 2012, $5 billion less than the previous year. According to the report, slightly more than half of the investments ($182 billion) were spent in developing countries, and 76 percent ($275 billion) of all spending was domestic. The study also reveals the pattern of international investments, with private money inclined to flow between developed countries, while a majority of the money developed countries spent in developing countries came from the public sector. “Investment to combat and adapt to climate change is happening around the world, but it’s short of where it needed to be and efforts to grow it have not been successful enough,” commented CPI’s Executive Director Thomas Heller. According to International Energy Agency, an additional $5 trillion investment in clean energy is needed through 2020 to limit the temperature rise to within 2 degrees Celsius, the United Nations target. The report also underscores the critical role played by public sources and policies in leveraging private investment, saying the public sector’s $135 billion investment facilitated $224 billion in private spending.
For additional information see: Bloomberg, Reuters, Environmental Leader, Study



New Study Addresses Cost of Climate Change in East Asia

On October 17, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) released a report titled “Economics of Climate Change in East Asia,” warning of the risk of losing 5.3 percent of the region’s annual gross domestic product (GDP) by 2100 due to climate change. The report found that 12 million people in 23 East Asian cities and $864 billion in assets are at risk. Using climate models and data from China, Japan, Mongolia and South Korea, the report examined East Asia’s adaptation strategies, and how they can be combined with greenhouse gas reduction measures. The report identified infrastructure, coastal protection and agriculture as the three most vulnerable sectors to climate change impacts, and called for annual average climate-proofing investments of $22.9 billion, $4.2 billion and $9.5 billion, respectively. The aggregated annual cost accounts for less than 0.3 percent of the region’s annual projected GDP between 2010 and 2050. Ayumi Konishi, Director General of ADB’s East Asia Department noted that “the cost of inaction far outweighs the cost of climate change adaptation if countries act now.” Climate related natural disasters since 1970 have already cost the four nations $340 billion in economic loss.
For additional information see: Bloomberg, ADB, Report, Study



Study Finds Global Warming is Extending Dry Season in Amazon Rain Forest

On October 21, a new study published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found that the Amazon rain forest's dry season now lasts three weeks longer than it did 30 years ago. According to lead researcher Rong Fu, professor at The University of Texas, "The length of the dry season in the southern Amazon is the most important climate condition controlling the rain forest . . . If the dry season is too long, the rain forest will not survive." The researchers say the most likely explanation for the lengthening dry season is human-caused global warming. Effects of global warming, such as rising surface temperatures and shifts in the southern jet stream, block cold fronts that trigger rainfall in the region. According to the study, the Amazon’s annual fire season becomes longer as the dry season extends, and the threat of tree dieback increases. Since the Amazonian rain forest plays such a critical role in absorbing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, its decline would lead to large increases in greenhouse gases. This phenomenon was evidenced in 2005 when the Amazon experienced an intense drought that caused wildfires and killed thousands of acres of forest. This released one gigatonne of carbon into the atmosphere, equal to about one-tenth of annual human emissions, and reduced carbon storage by 1.6 gigatonnes.
For additional information see: Press Release, Study, Live Science



Scientists Release Guide to Relocating Species at Risk from Climate Change

On October 16, a team of environmental scientists from New Zealand and Australia released a study detailing a new quantitative framework that can be used to determine whether endangered species should be relocated to a new area in order to save them from extinction. The researchers explain that climate change is causing traditional habitats to alter at a pace that adaptation cannot match, threatening the survival of many species. The study’s original mathematical formulations can help scientists determine which species are good candidates for relocation, where and how they should be introduced, how relocation compares with other management options, and if relocation should occur at all. “With the climate changing more rapidly than species can move or adapt, our only chance of saving some species may be to move them to more climatically suitable areas,” explained study lead author Tracy Rout, an environmental scientist at the University of Melbourne. “But introducing species into areas outside their historical range is a controversial strategy, and we have to be sure it will work, both for the animals themselves, and for other species in their new habitat.” The research was funded by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions (CEED), and published in the peer-reviewed journal PLOS ONE.
For additional information see: Science Alert, Phys.org, Study



White House Issues Executive Order on Climate Preparation

On November 1, the White House released an Executive Order to enhance preparedness and resilience in the face of climate change in the United States. The Executive Order is divided into eight sections, and includes general policy issues, land and water management strategies, federal agency planning, and support of data and information processing tools. To ensure that these outlined strategies are implemented, the Executive Order creates an interagency Council on Climate Preparedness and Resilience, which will be chaired by the White House and have a membership of over 25 federal agencies. The order also called for the formation of a Task Force on Climate Preparedness and Resilience, whose members include governors, mayors, county officials and tribal leaders from across the country. The task force will assist and advise the interagency council.
For additional information see: Executive Order, Fact Sheet

Note: Governor Markell of Delaware is one of the governors on the Task Force.

European Ministers Call for a Climate-Friendly Economy

On October 28, a group of 13 European energy and climate ministers (called the Green Growth Group, or GGG) were joined by companies like Coca-Cola and Shell at a Brussels summit to urge the European Union (EU) to adopt strong measures to promote a low carbon economy. During the summit the GGG released a 40-page joint pamphlet titled “Going for Green Growth,” which calls for the EU to take three urgent actions. First, they request that the EU agree on an “EU 2030 Energy and Climate Policy Framework” to incentivize low carbon investment. Second, the group recommends structural reform of the EU’s $73 million Emission Trading System. Finally, the group seeks to ensure the EU is “in a position to put an ambitious emissions reduction offer on the table” at the Ban Ki-Moon-hosted World Leaders’ Climate Summit in autumn 2014. UNFCCC Secretary General Christiana Figueres welcomed the initiative, saying “Implementing clear policy frameworks that incentivize low-carbon, price carbon and lay the groundwork for emission reduction commitments in 2014 are the greatest contributions governments can make towards the new, universal 2015 climate agreement currently under design.”



Investors Ask Fossil Fuel Industry to Evaluate Impact of Climate Change on Business Practices

On October 24, over 70 pension funds, state and city treasurers released a statement revealing that they have requested an evaluation of how climate change will impact business practices at fossil fuel companies where they hold investments. The coalition has asked 45 companies to disclose to investors their "exposure to the risks associated with current and probable future policies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050." New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli explained that “Institutional investors must think over the long term, which means that we must take environmental risks into consideration when we make investments”.  The group of investors represents more than $3 trillion in assets, with only a portion of these investments in fossil fuels. According to Jack Ehnes, CEO of the California State Teachers Retirement System, “we don't expect fossil fuel companies to become clean-energy companies overnight.”  However, “they do need to examine in a rigorous way whether the current approach of investing in ever-more-expensive and carbon-intensive sources of energy is prudent use of our shareholder funds in a world already taking steps toward a low carbon future.”



New Report Shows Taxpayer Cost From Inaction on Climate Change

On October 29, Ceres published a new report “Inaction on Climate Change: The Cost to Taxpayers,” documenting the growing burden on taxpayers from public disaster relief and recovery programs, and warning that government losses and taxpayer costs will continue to rise unless the programs are reformed to encourage climate change mitigation. Ceres president Mindy Lubber noted “Taxpayer costs from climate change are getting bigger and bigger. Last year’s extreme weather events alone cost every American more than $300 apiece, or $100 billion altogether - most of it to pay for federal crop, flood, wildfire and disaster relief.” Extreme weather-prone states such as Florida and Texas face acute financial exposure, as their total loss exposure has risen 1,550 percent in the past 20 years, from $40 billion in 1990 to over $600 billion in 2010. The report offered specific recommendations for several federal programs, including the National Flood Insurance Program, the Federal Crop Insurance Program, disaster assistance and wildfire protection programs. Recommendations included incorporating climate change risks into insurance premium rates, allocating resources for disaster prevention, and incentives such as giving lower insurance premiums to farmers whose practices increase drought and extreme weather resiliency.
For additional information see: Ceres Press Release, Report, E&E Publishing



Arctic Temperatures Are Warmest in 44,000 Years

According to a new study released on October 23, Arctic temperatures are higher now than they have been in the last 44,000 years. Gifford Miller and his colleagues at the University of Colorado, Boulder used radiocarbon dating to find the age of recently exposed moss on rocks beneath melting ice caps on Canada's Baffin Island. The samples were found to be between 44,000 and 51,000 years old – although the researchers note that the samples could be up to 120,000 years old, since radiocarbon dating cannot measure reliably beyond 50,000 years. In addition to dating the moss samples, researchers analyzed gas bubbles trapped in ice cores. Taken together, the data shows that the Arctic has been heating up for about a century. The heating began to accelerate in the 1970’s, and even more significantly in the last 20 years. According to Miller, "All of Baffin Island is melting, and we expect all of the ice caps to eventually disappear, even if there is no additional warming.” Miller goes on to note, "This study really says the warming we are seeing is outside any kind of known natural variability, and it has to be due to increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere."
For additional information see: Live Science, Scientific America, Statement, Study



DOE Invests $84 Million in Carbon Capture Projects

On November 7, the Department of Energy announced an $84 million investment in 18 innovative carbon capture projects around the country to help reduce carbon emissions from new and existing coal-fired power plants. The projects will research how to improve efficiency and drive down costs for carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies in two types of power generation processes: post-combustion carbon capture for traditional, combustion-based coal plants and pre-combustion carbon capture for gasification-based power plants. “Coal and other fossil fuels still provide 80 percent of our energy, 70 percent of our electricity and will be a major part of our energy future for decades,” said Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz. “That’s why any serious effort to protect future generations from the worst effects of climate change must also include developing, demonstrating and deploying the technologies to use our abundant fossil fuel resources as cleanly as possible.” According to DOE, the Obama Administration has invested $6 billion in clean coal technologies to date. Aside from the $84 million DOE investment, additional costs for the CCS projects will be covered by the industry, universities and other research institutions.



Secretary Moniz and Climate Scientists Emphasize Role Nuclear Will Play in Combating Climate Change

At the meeting of the American Nuclear Society on November 11, Department of Energy Secretary Moniz expressed support for the role nuclear power plays in addressing climate change, as part of President Obama’s Climate Action Plan. Commenting on the ‘all of the above’ energy strategy, he stated “we are committed to . . . developing all of our domestic energy sources for a low-carbon world, be it coal, natural gas, nuclear, renewables, biofuels [or] efficiency.”  According to the Secretary, nuclear has been overlooked due to lower electricity demand and the boom in natural gas production in recent years, but commented that “the President continues to see nuclear energy as an important part of a diverse energy portfolio, and it’s part of his goal of doubling the national share of electricity from low-carbon energy sources by 2035.” In related news, several climate scientists penned a letter to policy makers urging further safe development of nuclear power, in order to avoid the worst effects of climate change. The letter, released November 3 by Dr. Ken Caldiera of the Carnegie Institution, Dr. Kerry Emanuel, of Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dr. James Hanson of the Columbia University Earth Institute and Dr. Tom Wigley of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, warns that opposition to nuclear power will jeopardize our ability to avoid the worst affects of climate change. While many environmental groups counter that energy demands can be met by increased efficiency and renewable energy, the signers write that “renewables like wind and solar and biomass will certainly play roles in a future energy economy, but those energy sources cannot scale up fast enough to deliver cheap and reliable power at the scale the global economy requires . . . there is no credible path to climate stabilization that does not include a substantial role for nuclear power.”
For additional information see: The National Journal, CNN, The Associated Press



IEA Reports that Efforts to Mitigate Climate Change Are Falling Short

On November 12, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its 2013 edition of World Energy Outlook (WEO-2013), analyzing the latest developments in global energy markets and the potential energy and climate trends in the upcoming decades. In the report, IEA projects that by 2035 global energy demand will rise by one-third, 90 percent of which will come from emerging economies. Taking all the emissions reductions measures pledged by governments into account, global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will still increase 20 percent by 2035, putting the world on a trajectory toward an average global temperature increase of 3.6 degrees Celsius, far above the international target of 2 degrees Celsius required to avoid catastrophic impacts of climate change. IEA expects the United States will become the world’s largest oil producer for most of the period from today to 2035, although in the mid-2020s the Middle East will begin to take back the dominant role in providing global oil supply growth. Average crude oil prices will climb steadily to $128 a barrel in 2012-dollars by 2035, supporting the development of unconventional oil resources to meet a growing gap between oil demand and oil production. WEO-2013 highlights the importance of taking advantage of energy efficiency, the “hidden fuel,” to adapt to higher energy prices and maintain competitiveness, stating that two-thirds of the economic potential for energy efficiency remains untapped.
For additional information see: The Hill, Politico, IEA



International Ozone Treaty Slowed Global Warming

On November 10, a new study published in the journal Nature Geoscience linked the rate of global warming to human activities, particularly the hidden influence of the 1987 Montreal Protocol, which banned the use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), ozone-depleting substances that also have a warming impact. According to a commentary published alongside the study, the phase-down of CFCs during the 1990s has shaved 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit of global warming since then, a consequential amount in comparison to the 1.6 degree Fahrenheit warming observed from 1901 to 2012. Researchers performed a statistical analysis on temperature data collected from 1850 to 2010, as well as the trends in emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) between 1880 and 2010. They found the drops in emissions during the two World Wars and the Great Depression in the 1930’s led to the cooling period between 1940 and 1970; the reduction in emissions of CFCs and methane contributed to the lower rate of warming since the 1990s; and that the post-war economic boom emission rise marked the “onset of modern climate change.” The research was produced without the use of climate models. Francisco Estrada, lead author and ecological economist at Free University in Amsterdam said, “I hope it also helps with other climate negotiations . . . because this shows that international negotiations can actually achieve things, can actually be successful.”
For additional information see: Study, Nature, BBC, Climate Central, IGSD Press Release



Study Finds Cosmic Rays Contribute Minimally to Climate Change

On November 7, research published in the journal Environmental Research Letters further demonstrated that solar activity is not a significant cause of global warming. The study revealed that cosmic rays and solar radiation caused less than 10 percent of the total global warming observed in the 20th century. The idea that solar radiation is a major contributor to climate change is often cited in opposition of the accepted theory of human-induced global warming. Supporters of this idea hypothesize that cosmic rays from distant supernovas increase cloud cover (and therefore cooling) on Earth by charging the atmosphere, promoting cloud formation. During periods of increased solar radiation, the sun’s rays deflect incoming cosmic rays, leading to decreased cloud cover and increased temperatures on earth. Researchers at Lancaster University used mathematical calculations of the feedback mechanisms occurring in the earth’s atmosphere to calculate the role of carbon dioxide in absorbing heat from the atmosphere as compared to the role of solar activity. The conclusions are not surprising, according to Dr. Raymond Bradley, Director of the Climate System Research Center at the University of Massachusetts, who commented, “numerous studies have concluded that solar forcing cannot explain recent warming.”
For additional information see: NBC News, Study



Scientists Call for Development of Climate Adaptation Science

On November 8, an article published in the journal Science urged the development of climate adaptation science and preparedness research to help manage the risks of climate change. “Adapting to an evolving climate is going to be required in every sector of society, in every region of the globe. We need to get going, to provide integrated science if we are going to meet the challenge,” says Richard Moss, lead author of the article and senior scientist at the US Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The article grew out of a 2012 workshop at the Aspen Global Change Institute, where Moss emphasized “the need to consider how decisions get implemented and that climate is only one of many factors that will determine how people will adapt.” The article identified four major challenges that theoretical and practical sciences should focus on, including understanding information needs for adaptation decisions; identifying vulnerabilities; improving forecasts and climate models; and providing technology, management and policy options for adaptation. An international group of 27 climate and social scientists contributed to the work.
For additional information see: Science, PNNL News Release, NBC News, Climate News Network


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Chad A. Tolman

ctolman141@gmail.com
New Castle County Congregations of Delaware Interfaith Power and Light

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Friday, October 25, 2013

CLIMATE CHANGE NEWS FOR OCT. 2013


CC NEWS FOR OCT. 2013

During Sept. 23-26, Working Group 1 (WG1) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) met in Stockholm and approved the Summary for Policy Makers of the WG1 contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC.  It’s 36 pages are now available in PDF format, dated Sept. 27, 2013,  at: 
http://www.climatechange2013.org  I pulled out a few of its key findings, below:

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased.”  (emphasis added)
“Cumulative emissions of CO2 largely determine global mean surface warming by the late 21st century and beyond. Most aspects of climate change will persist for many centuries even if emissions of CO2 are stopped. This represents a substantial multi-century climate change commitment created by past, present and future emissions of CO2.”

On Bill Moyers’ broadcast of Sept. 27, the charismatic Greenpeace International Executive Director Kumi Naidoo  talked about the politics of global warming and the urgency of environmental activism - even if it means civil disobedience.  He spoke these profound words: 

“If there’s injustice in the world, those of us that have the ability to witness it and to record it, document it and tell the world what is happening have a moral responsibility to do that. Then, of course, it’s left up to those that are receiving that knowledge to make the moral choice about whether they want to stand up against the injustice or observe it.”  At: 

The NY Times for Sept. 29, 2013 had an article titled Climate Change Has Reached Our Shores, by Christopher Loeak, President of the Republic of the Marshall Islands - a low-lying coral atoll nation of about 1000 islands a short plane ride from Hawaii.  He wrote, “As one of only four low-lying coral atoll nations in the world, we are increasingly panicked by recent scientific reports suggesting that the world is currently heading for a three- to six-foot rise in sea levels by the end of the century. If such predictions are accurate, my country will be lost forever.”  It has already had two climate-related disasters this year: an unprecedented drought that left thousands of people without food or water and a “king tide” that inundated the runway of the airport of the capital, Majuro, and nearby neighborhoods, including the president’s.  He wrote, “Some have suggested that we move to higher ground, but in the Marshall Islands there isn’t any — and we are not prepared to abandon our country. Our land is our home, our heritage and our identity.”  He went on to say, “Even as the danger looms large, we in the Pacific are doing much more than waving our arms in distress. Earlier this month, the region’s leaders gathered in Majuro for the Pacific Islands Forum to consider our response to the climate challenge. On Sept. 5, we adopted the Majuro Declaration for Climate Leadership, which outlines the ambitious targets of our island states to accelerate their transition to low-carbon economies. The Cook Islands, Niue, Tuvalu and Vanuatu are all striving for 100 percent renewable energy by 2020, and Tonga, 50 percent by 2020. Our motive is not purely environmental. It comes from a common-sense realization that renewable energy is good for our economies, our energy security and the health of our populations. The message to the bigger countries is this: if we can do it, so can you.”  At: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/25/opinion/climate-change-has-reached-our-shores.html?src=recg&_r=0

Beginning on Sept. 30, Dr. Sarah Burch and Dr. Sara Harris of the University of British Columbia are offering a free 10-week on-line course titled, Climate Literacy: Navigating Climate Change Conversations.  They write, “Climate Literacy tackles the scientific and socio-political dimensions of climate change. This course introduces the basics of the climate system, models and predictions, human and natural impacts, mitigative and adaptive responses, and the evolution of climate policy.”  The workload for active participation during the course is expected to be 3-5 hours per week.  At:

Delaware’s Sea Level Rise Advisory Committee has completed three years of work with the publication of its final report on Oct. 7 titled, Preparing for Tomorrow’s High Tide - Recommendations for Adapting to Sea Level Rise in Delaware, by Susan Love, Tricia Arndt, and Molly Ellwood of
Delaware Coastal Programs as the lead authors.  The Committee consisted of representatives from 25 different stake-holders, including state agencies, city and county governments, and citizen, business and environmental organizations.  I represented the Delaware LWV.  The final ca. 100-page report contains 55 recommendations and 9 Guiding Principles for Adaptation, which are:
  • Begin adaptation planning and implementation; adjust and make improvements as more information becomes available.
  • Avoid unnecessarily prescriptive adaptation actions; empower decisions at the local level.
  • Incorporate adaptation into existing programs and mechanisms, so as to not create a new bureaucracy.
  • Incorporate adaptation into existing programs and mechanisms, so as to not create a new bureaucracy.
  • Engage broad public participation in adaptation decisions.
  • Use the best available science and technology for decision-making and adaptation actions. 
  • Coordinate and consider consequences of adaptation among jurisdictions and among resource types. 
  • Strike a balance between protection of homes, infrastructure and conservation of natural resources. 
  • Strive for equity in selection and funding of adaptation measures. 
  • Encourage development of funding mechanisms for adaptation based on fairness, equity and justice for all citizens.
Delaware is especially vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR) and coastal storms because it has the lowest average elevation (60 feet) of any state in the country, and has no land more than 10 miles from tidal water.  Based on a study of the best science available, a technical work group published three plausible scenarios in 2009 for SLR in Delaware - reaching 0.5, 1 or 1.5 m (about 20, 40 or 60 inches) by 2100.  A tide gauge in Lewes showed an average rate of SLR during the 20th Century of 13 inches/century.  At: http://www.dnrec.delaware.gov/coastal/Documents/SeaLevelRise/SLRAdaptPlanFinalforWeb.pdf
The SLRAC assessed the impacts of these three scenarios on nearly 80 of Delaware’s human and natural resources in an earlier report published in 2012 titled, Preparing for Tomorrow’s High Tide: Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment for the State of Delaware.  It found that for the high SLR scenario Delaware would lose about 5% (17,000) of its homes, 11% of its land area, 72% of the area of the Port of Wilmington, and 99% of its saltwater tidal wetlands at high tide - not including the additional effects of storms.  At: http://de.gov/slrva.  
Note: Whether SLR reaches 1.5 m or more by 2100 will depend primarily on how soon and how seriously humanity reduces its global warming emissions, and on how fast ice now on land near the poles melts or slides into the sea.  The September issue of National Geographic had an article titled, Rising Seas, with NOAA’s four scenarios of SLR to 2100.  It’s highest was 2 m (6.6 feet).
On Oct. 9 the NY Times published an article by Justin Gillis titled, By 2047, Coldest Years May Be Warmer Than Hottest in Past, Scientists Say.  He wrote, “If greenhouse emissions continue their steady escalation, temperatures across most of the earth will rise to levels with no recorded precedent by the middle of this century, researchers said Wednesday.”  “To put it another way, for a given geographic area, “the coldest year in the future will be warmer than the hottest year in the past,” said Camilo Mora, the lead scientist on a paper published in the journal Nature.”  At: 

NOTE: The Times has a whole series of related articles on the science of global warming and climate change by Justin Gillis.  At: 

On October 8 Paul Thornton, the Editor of the Letters page of the Los Angeles Times published a piece titled, On letters from climate-change deniers.  He wrote, “Simply put, I do my best to keep errors of fact off the letters page; when one does run, a correction is published. Saying "there's no sign humans have caused climate change" is not stating an opinion, it's asserting a factual inaccuracy.”  Thornton cited the recent finding of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, made up of the world’s top climate scientists, that it is 95% certain that human burning of fossil fuels is driving global warming.  At: http://www.latimes.com/opinion/opinion-la/la-ol-climate-change-letters-20131008,0,871615.story
Skeptical Science - Getting skeptical about global warming skepticism, is a web site with with a list of the favorite claims of global warming skeptics - and the responses  by scientists.  On Oct. 21 it also announced a new collaborative approach to media coverage of climate  - with some young freelance reports going to the next Conference of the Parties meeting next month in Warsaw.  At:

The following items are from the Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI), Carol Werner, Executive Director. Past issues of its newsletter are posted on its website under "publications"
 at http://www.eesi.org/publications/Newsletters/CCNews/ccnews.htm 
EESI’s newsletter is intended for all interested parties, particularly the policymaker community. 


Former Mexican President Felipe Calderon Heads Multinational Climate-Economics Study

Seven countries have commissioned a study led by former President of Mexico Felipe Calderon to examine the economics of climate change. The $9 million year-long research study will collect data from five continents to analyze the potential economic benefits and costs of cutting carbon pollution. “We have talked about emissions – this time, we will try to talk about profits,” said Felipe Calderon. “The idea is that we can present an economic case.” Britain, Colombia, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Sweden, South Korea and Norway are sponsoring the research, which will look at the ways extreme weather from climate change and greenhouse gas emission cuts have affected companies and governments across the world. Results will be released in September 2014, shortly before a United Nations climate change conference.
For additional information see: Bloomberg, ABC News



Study Finds Children Are Most Vulnerable to Climate Change

On September 23, a report issued by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) found that more than 600 million children live in the most climate-vulnerable regions of the world. These children are subject to heat waves, natural disasters, disease, and food crises as climate change progresses. Presently, 88 percent of the global burden of disease due to climate change occurs in children under the age of five. Furthermore, changing climates mean rising food insecurity, "The IPCC estimate that there will be 30 million more malnourished children as a result of climate change by 2050." The report notes that the negative impacts of climate change, as projected for the years 2030 and 2050, are most relevant to the children being born now, "A child born in 2012 will be 18 in 2030 and 38 in 2050.” Despite being most vulnerable to the effects of climate change, children are frequently not mentioned in the debate. The UNICEF report urges that children be included in the formation of a climate action plan through consultation mechanisms. Additionally, the report recommends more funding for action and adaptation programs, increased efforts toward low carbon development, climate change treaties, and strict emission reduction targets.
For additional information see: UNICEF Report, Think Progress



Climate Change Causing World Hunger Rates to Increase

On September 22, Oxfam released a paper discussing the connection between climate change and rising world hunger. The 4 degree Celsius warming that is predicted by mid-century under “business as usual” emission scenarios will lead to a cascade of events that will impact food security. Increases in extreme weather such as droughts and floods will lead to crop loss, damage food distribution systems as well as affect water supplies. Additionally, farmers in poorer nations will be largely unable to cope with changing precipitation patterns and temperatures. These events can result in depleted food stores, food scarcity and unstable food prices. Oxfam predicts that by 2050, the percentage of global population at risk for hunger may reach as high as 20 percent. They also predict that the price of food staples could double in the next 20 years, unless serious cuts to current greenhouse gas emissions levels are achieved in the near term. The worst effects to food security will be felt by developing nations in tropical and subtropical regions, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia. Oxfam predicts that crop yields in those areas may fall as much as 20 percent in the next 40 years. Warming has already threatened the gains made in the global fight against hunger in the last decade, with Oxfam emphasizing that “a hot world is a hungry world.”
For additional information see: Bloomberg, Oxfam Report



Renewable Energy Cheapest When Factoring in Climate Change

On September 13, a study published in Springer's Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences found that renewable energy is the cheapest source of power for Americans, once the costs of fossil fuel power plants are factored in. The research also discovered that it is less expensive to retrofit existing power plants to produce renewable energy than to keep the current plants producing fossil fuel power. The study's conclusions were based in part on the "social cost of carbon," a metric various government agencies released that puts the price of the effects of releasing 1 metric ton of carbon pollution at $33. Coal-burning power plants are the source of 40 percent of U.S. carbon emissions. "Burning coal is a very costly way to make electricity," explained study co-author Laurie Johnson, chief economist of the Climate and Clean Air Program at Natural Resources Defense Council. "Transitioning to cleaner energy won't just help protect us and our children and grandchildren from climate change, it's also good economics."
For additional information see: PV Magazine, EE News, Study



Combating Climate Change Would Save Millions of Lives

On September 22, a report published in Nature Climate Change stated that transitioning to clean energy to combat climate change would save millions of lives by decreasing air pollution. By the year 2030, 300,000-700,000 premature deaths from air pollution could be averted – a number that would climb to 1.3 million by the year 2050, and 1.4-3 million by the year 2100. “It is pretty striking that you can make an argument purely on health grounds to control climate change,” said lead author Jason West, researcher at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill. The researchers calculated that based on society’s value of human life, the average marginal co-benefits of reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions would be $50-$380 per ton of CO2. Those numbers reveal that the cost of continuing to burn polluting fossil fuels is greater than the cost of switching to clean energy. “Air pollution benefits are local, tangible and near term, with air quality improving within weeks. That strengthens the argument for taking immediate action,” explained Jason West.
For additional information see: New Scientist, The Guardian, Study



Study Finds Higher Severe Storm Risk Due to Global Warming

On September 20, a study published in the Proceeding of the National Academy of Sciences, indicates an increase in potential severe weather days over the next century. The study, led by Noah Diffenbaugh and Martin Scherer of Stanford and Robert Trapp of Purdue University, used a group of complex physics-based climate models to examine how atmosphere reacts to global warming. It finds that rising temperature contributes to atmospheric conditions that favor severe weather, including storms and tornadoes, thus increasing the risk of damage caused. "We’re seeing that global warming produces more days with . . . severe thunderstorms," Diffenbaugh said. The research predicts a 40 percent increase of severe weather in springtime over the eastern U.S., and an overall 25 to 30 percent increase in annual occurrence. The most significant increase, about 2.4 additional storm days per the Spring season, is predicted to occur across areas of Oklahoma, Texas and Louisiana.
For additional information see: Stanford, New York Times, Study



Climate Threat from Short-Lived Climate Pollutants Upgraded by IPCC in 5th Assessment

On September 30, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its Fifth assessment, which significantly upgraded the climate threat posed by short-lived climate pollutants. Short-lived climate pollutants have relatively shorter life spans in the atmosphere, from a few days to a few decades. The main short-lived climate pollutants are methane, black carbon (soot), tropospheric ozone, and hydrofluorocarbons. When feedbacks are included, the IPCC found that the global warming potential (GWP) of methane, the number two climate warming gas, increased by as much as 30 percent over estimates from 2007 and 60 percent over 2001. This is the first time the IPCC has included a GWP for black carbon. The IPCC estimates that over a 100-year timespan, black carbon is 900 times more powerful than carbon dioxide at warming the atmosphere. While the previous IPCC assessment did not include numbers for the GWP of black carbon, calculations based on the data provided would have produced a GWP of 460 over a 100-year timespan, about half the new number. The GWP for methane was increased from 25 to 28 over a 100-year timespan and from 72 to 84 over a 20-year timespan. “Even before the new IPCC assessment, we knew that cutting these climate pollutants could cut warming in half and by two-thirds in the vulnerable Arctic for many decades,” stated Durwood Zaelke, president of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development. “Now we know that this strategy is even more important.”
For additional information see: E&E Publishing, IGSD Press Release



Carbon Capture Projects Decreasing Worldwide

On October 10, the Global CCS Institute released findings from a new survey stating that the number of large-scale carbon dioxide capture projects world-wide has declined from 75 to 65 over the past year. Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is considered by many scientists and engineers to be essential to meet international targets for carbon dioxide emissions reductions to slow the rate of climate change. The study found that in the last year five CCS projects have been cancelled, one has been reduced in size and seven have been postponed. The International Energy Agency projects that by 2050, CCS will be the third most important method of carbon emissions reduction, with only energy efficiency and renewable energy like solar and wind ranking higher. The report warns that “while CCS projects are progressing, the pace is well below the level required for CCS to make a substantial contribution to climate change mitigation.” Currently, the United States leads the market in CCS, but China has 12 new plants under planning and construction and will likely be influential in CCS’s future. CCS projects predominantly capture carbon dioxide from coal power plants, but CCS can also be implemented at natural gas plants, oil refineries and other industrial plants.
For additional information see: New York Times, Report



New Climate Initiative Announced to Address Economic Risks of Climate Change

On October 1, the Risky Business initiative revealed its goal to persuade investors, policy makers and the public that it is more economical to curb emissions now than pay for extreme weather in the future. The new climate initiative, launched jointly by New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, billionaire ex-hedge fund chief Tom Steyer and George W. Bush-era Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, will “arm decision-makers with the information they need to determine how much climate risk they are comfortable taking on.” The initiative comprises two main components: a risk assessment study to quantify the economic risks the United States faces from the impacts of unmitigated climate change by region and by sector, and an engagement effort helping prepare those economic sectors most at risk for climate change. Former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and former Secretary of State George Shultz will both be advising the study. Final results will be published in Summer 2014.
For additional information see: The Hill, Bloomberg, The Washington Post Op-Ed



New Study Finds Carbon Pricing is the Most Cost-Effective Way To Cut Emissions

On October 9, the multilateral Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) released a new report stating that carbon pricing schemes such as carbon taxes and emission trading systems are more cost-effective than most alternative policies to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Placing an explicit price on carbon could achieve 94 percent cheaper emissions reductions than renewable producer subsidies, according to the OECD report. The researchers examined the cost of carbon reduction policies in 15 countries, including the U.S. and China. These findings suggest that governments should enact sufficient carbon pricing schemes, while reexamining and reforming tax exemptions and subsidies to ensure the achievement of climate goals. OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría explained that carbon pricing instruments should be coherent with other implicit pricing policies in order to effectively price all sources of emissions and achieve “complete elimination of emissions to the atmosphere from fossil fuels in the second half of the century.” The OECD report identified two additional key measures: encouraging additional support for investing in new technologies and infrastructures, and ensuring that any regressive impacts are addressed through complementary measures and explained through clear communications.
For additional information see: The Hill, Bloomberg, OECD, Report



Climate Change Will Increase Water Scarcity Globally for Millions of People

A study published September 12 in the journal Environmental Research Letters estimates that an additional 668 million people will face increased water scarcity by mid-century, if global temperatures increase 3.5°C. Currently, 1.3 billion people already live in regions facing water shortages, with semi-arid regions such as the Middle East, North Africa, Southern Europe and the U.S. Southwest bearing the brunt of both current and future water issues. Climate change will worsen water availability in many regions, since rising temperatures will reduce precipitation amounts and change precipitation patterns. Researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact and Research calculated water scarcity for the present international target maximum of 2°C warming, the more likely 3.5°C scenario, and for warming in excess of 4°C. Under a 2°C warming scenario, they calculated that an additional 7 percent of global population will face severe water scarcity. Lead author Dr. Dieter Gerten stressed that even with 2°C of warming, “many regions will have to adapt their water management and demand to a lower supply, especially since the population is expected to grow significantly in many of these regions.”
For additional information see: Climate Central, Study



Oceans Face Deadly Trio of Threats

On October 3, the International Programme on the State of the Ocean (IPSO) released a report warning that oceans are degrading far faster than previously thought. The report stated that ocean warming, water acidification and de-oxygenation are combining in a “deadly trio” to create circumstances that may lead to the next mass extinction. The ocean is more acidic now than it has been for the last 300 million years, including the period when the last major extinction took place, 55 million years ago. “This [acidification] is unprecedented in the Earth's known history. We are entering an unknown territory of marine ecosystem change, and exposing organisms to intolerable evolutionary pressure,” the report says. Corals and other organisms that use calcium carbonate in their shells are particularly at risk from increased acidification and warming. A 2°C temperature increase may stop corals from growing, and a 3°C rise could begin to dissolve them. "The health of the ocean is spiraling downwards far more rapidly than we had thought... The situation should be of the gravest concern to everyone since everyone will be affected by changes in the ability of the ocean to support life on Earth,” remarked Alex Rogers, a biology professor at Oxford University. The report was produced in partnership with the International Union for Conservation of Nature, and published in the Marine Pollution Bulletin, a peer-reviewed journal.
For additional information see: Guardian, Reuters, IPSO Report, IPSO Press Release



Supreme Court to Hear Challenge to EPA Emissions Rules

On October 15, the Supreme Court announced it will hear arguments that challenge the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)’s new rules regarding greenhouse gases (GHG) from stationary sources. The case will build on the 2007 decision in Massachusetts v. Environmental Protection Agency, which states that EPA must regulate GHG emissions from vehicles if they were found to impact public health. Subsequently, EPA found that elevated GHG concentrations are a health threat and set new emissions standards for power plants, in addition to vehicles. The utility industry says that new regulations are an unnecessary burden to U.S. manufacturers, citing costs of regulation at tens of billions of dollars per year. The case will question whether the Clean Air Act provides the regulatory structure to mandate GHG emissions from stationary sources such as power plants, but the ruling may also apply to manufacturers, refineries and apartment buildings. According to Thomas Lorenzeen, former Justice Department official on environmental issues, “the power plant standards will go forward,” but perhaps under a different section of the Clean Air Act, depending on the court’s decision. The court rejected a variety of other cases against the EPA that dispute the agency’s power to address climate change. According to Vickie Patton, general counsel for the Environmental Defense Fund, the announcement represents a victory for environmental groups, since “ the U.S. Supreme Court make it abundantly clear, once and for all, that EPA has the both legal authority and the responsibility to address climate change and the carbon pollution that causes.” A decision is expected by June 2014.
For additional information see: The New York Times, Washington Post, The Los Angeles Times



Environmental Nonprofit Sues EPA Over Inaction on Ocean Acidification

On October 16, the Center for Biological Diversity, a Tucson based non-profit, filed a federal lawsuit against the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The suit claims that the EPA is not taking proper measures under the mandate of the Clean Water Act to protect ocean ecosystems from the impact of ocean acidity. This is the second suit regarding ocean acidity from the non-profit against the EPA: their first suit in 2009 was settled out of court, with the EPA agreeing that the Clean Water Act allows them to address ocean acidification. Ocean acidification is one effect of climate change, occurring when excess carbon dioxide (CO2) and nutrient pollution accumulate in the ocean and react to form a mild acid which raises the water’s pH levels. Acidification contributes to coral bleaching and is also harmful to shellfish. Miyokoto Sakashita, spokeswoman for the Center for Biological Diversity commented, “it really affects the entire ecosystem, from the smallest plankton to the biggest whale.”  
For additional information see: Bellingham Herald, San Francisco Gate


NOTE: About 56 million years ago the release of about 2000 gigatons of carbon into the atmosphere in the form of methane gas - which oxidizes to carbon dioxide in a decade or so after its release - acidified the world’s oceans and caused an oceanic extinction event, referred to by geologists as the Paleocene/Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). It was called a “Thermal Maximum” because the increased concentrations of greenhouse gases also caused the global temperature to rise by 5-6 degrees C.  See C.A. Tolman, Positive Feedbacks and Climate Runaway - the Need to Act Without Delay.  At:


World Bank Report Says Businesses Need to Help Save the Ocean

On October 16, the World Bank released a report urging businesses to take action to reverse damage to oceans that includes depleted fish stocks, ocean acidification, habitat destruction and ocean warming. The report was the product of the Blue Ribbon Panel of the Global Partnership for Oceans, a team of 21 experts from 16 countries which includes government ministers, environmental conservationists, academics and the CEOs of some of the world’s largest seafood companies. The report finds that piecemeal solutions that leave out social, economic, political, and ecological interactions will not be sufficient to solve the current decline of ocean health. Instead, the report recommends a global strategy utilizing public-private partnerships that leverage companies, local communities and governments to both protect and sustainably invest in the ocean. “Getting to healthy oceans is a global challenge that needs the concentrated effort of big and small business, government and science,” said panel chair Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, the director of the Global Change Institute at the University of Queensland in Australia. The study explains that the ocean has so far hidden the full impact of anthropogenic climate change by absorbing 25 percent of carbon dioxide released by human activities. “Ocean change is climate change and vice versa,” Hoegh-Guldberg remarked. “With looming threats of rising sea levels, warmer waters and a growing human population we need healthy oceans and coasts to mitigate climate change, feed billions and protect coastal communities.”
For additional information see: Environmental Leader, World Bank, Reuters, Infozone, Report



Climate Change is Altering North American Forests

On October 14, a new study found that forests in North America are experiencing multiple changes due to global warming. Researchers at Dartmouth University cite climate change as the agent behind increased insect outbreaks, wildfires, and plant diseases – but they also explain that climate change has caused many forests to grow faster and increase their resilience to pests. “We need to also start focusing on what could be – I don’t want to say ‘benefits,’ but the opportunities here,” said study lead author Aaron S. Weed, a postdoctoral researcher at Dartmouth. The increased tree growth rate may positively impact the timber and wood pulp industries and allow for greater absorption of carbon dioxide, broader forest acreage and water recycling, as well as other benefits. The study authors suggested that while some areas may see forest recovery because temperatures have increased high enough to kill off some insects, warmer winters have allowed other insect species to survive longer and do more damage than expected. The changing distribution of pests presents a challenge to forest management, which the authors regard as “one of our prominent challenges . . . [is] to cope with unprecedented changes in pest pressure.” The research, published in the journal Ecological Monographs, covered 500 scientific studies of forests in North America from the 1950s to today.
For additional information see: Washington Post, Red Orbit, Nature World News, Study



Extreme Weather Most Important Cause of Poverty

On October 15, the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) released a report finding that extreme weather, and especially drought, will continue to be a driver of poverty in the developing world. Dr. Tom Mitchell, ODI’s head of climate change, commented on the findings, stating “We've often heard that ill health is the biggest cause for impoverishment [ . . . ] But in the data, in drought prone areas, the biggest cause is the drought - in areas exposed to these hazards, they are the key causes of impoverishment.” Using climate change models and population projections, ODI studied the relationship between extreme weather and poverty, concluding that by 2050, 325 million people will be living in regions with higher than average extreme weather events. Weather events most linked to poverty are drought, heavy rainfall and flooding. The report found that the countries most at risk from extreme weather include Bangladesh, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Nepal, Nigeria, Pakistan, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda. The report recommends a shift of post-2015 development goals to climate change and weather-related disasters, and suggests that without focusing on these two issues, meeting the 2030 poverty irradiation targets will be impossible. Dr. Mitchell remarked on the link between poverty and weather, stating "if the international community [is] serious about ending extreme poverty they need to get serious about reducing disaster risk for the poorest people [ . . . ] We know that disasters entrench poverty – they don’t just end lives, they destroy shops, roads, crops, houses and hospitals in places where there are no safety nets such as insurance or social security.”
For additional information see: Blue and Green Tomorrow, Study



Study Finds Climate Change Will Affect Entire World Ocean System By 2100

Published October 15 in the journal PLOS Biology, a new study warns that unmitigated global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will cause substantial marine ecosystem degradation and threaten hundreds of millions of people’s lives by 2100. An interdisciplinary collaboration of climate modelers, biogeochemists, oceanographers and social scientists led the study, gathering climate, biological and socioeconomic data to quantify the impacts of ocean biogeochemical changes on marine habitats and organisms, and eventually humans. Camilo Mora, lead author and ecologist at the University of Hawai'i at Manoa, said the results suggested that most of the world’s oceans “will suffer simultaneous effects of warming, acidification, and reductions in oxygen and productivity.” Notably, the study also addressed the social ramifications of oceanic changes, and estimated that between 470 to 870 million people who live in coastal areas that depend heavily on oceans for their livelihoods will be severely impacted.
For additional information see: IPS News, Press Release, Study, Synopsis


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Chad A. Tolman
ctolman141@gmail.com
New Castle County Congregations of Delaware Interfaith Power and Light

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