CLIMATE CHANGE NEWS FOR FEBRUARY 2012

CC NEWS FOR FEB. 2012

The NY State Climate Action Council has a web page (http://nyclimatechange.us/) with a lot of information on what NY is doing to achieve Executive Order 24, issued by Gov. Patterson on Aug. 6, 2009, which calls for reducing GHG emissions from the state by 80% below 1990 levels by 2050, and for formation of a New York Climate Action Council, charged with recommending mitigation and adaptation measures in a Climate Action Plan and assessing how they will contribute to New York’s goals for a clean energy economy. The Executive Order is available at: http://www.nyclimatechange.us/ewebeditpro/items/O109F22395.PDF, and an Interim Report, issued in Nov. 2010, is available at: http://nyclimatechange.us/InterimReport.cfm

Arjun Makhijani has written a book published by the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research titled, Carbon-Free and Nuclear-Free: A Roadmap for U.S. Energy Policy. The 3ed printing was posted to the web in Nov. 2010. Chapter 3, pages 28-72, has very good sections on renewable energy, energy storage and carbon capture and storage. The book can be downloaded at: http://www.ieer.org/carbonfree/CarbonFreeNuclearFree.pdf or purchased at: http://www.ieer.org/carbonfree

Environment America has put up a web site showing a map of the U.S. with the number of disasters caused by extreme weather events during the period 2006-2011 shown color-coded by county. Most of the extreme events took place in the Mid-West, though significant numbers occurred in Washington State, Southern California, and in New Jersey through New England. At: http://www.environmentamerica.org/page/ame/map-recent-weather-related-disasters-united-states

The U.S. Energy Information Administration issued its Early Release Overview On Jan. 23 of its Annual Energy Outlook 2012. The EIA projects that U.S transportation energy demand will grow slowly (0.2%/yr) from 2010 through 2035, while electricity demand will grow somewhat faster (0.8%/yr). Per capita energy consumption is expected to decline a little (0.5%/yr) over the same period, while the energy intensity of the economy (energy per dollar of GDP (in 2005 dollars) will decrease 42% over the 25-year period. The amount of electrical energy from coal and nuclear are expected to remain at their current levels, while the projected increase will come from natural gas and renewables. At: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/er/pdf/0383er%282012%29.pdf

On the same day, Bloomberg posted an article by Christine Buurma titled, U.S. Cuts Estimate for Marcellus Shale Gas Reserves by 66%, saying that, though the production of gas from the Marcellus Shale had doubled during 2011, estimated of the technically recoverable natural gas had been decreased by about 2/3 - meaning that the gas from that shale is expected to last only 6 years instead of 17. At: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-23/u-s-reduces-marcellus-shale-gas-reserve-estimate-by-66-on-revised-data.html

On Jan. 24 David Minkow published a blog on ClimateAccess titled, How the Public Perceives the Risks of Climate Change: Interview with Paul Slovic. In it he describes why many people develop psychological barriers to protect themselves from thinking about or acting on climate change. It makes it very difficult to communicate with people and move them to action. At: http://www.climateaccess.org/. The site has links to a number of resources for helping to communicate the risks posed by climate change.


The January 26 issue of EcoWatch has a report from Cornell University titled, Natural Gas from Shale Not Suitable as ‘Bridge Fuel,’ May Worsen Climate Change. The problem is that so much methane leaks into the atmosphere when it is extracted from shale by fracking that the global warming is greater than what one would get from burning oil or coal. At: http://ecowatch.org/2012/natural-gas-from-shale-not-suitable-as-bridge-fuel-may-worsen-climate-change/. There is a 55-minute video at the site describing our energy choices for a better future.

The University of Delaware’s UDaily published an announcement of Jan. 27 titled, Potential energy - Study of Maryland demonstrates Mid-Atlantic offshore wind capacity. It described a study recently published in the journal Renewable Energy by researchers at UD showing that wind turbines off the Atlantic Coast of MD could generate more than enough energy to meet Maryland’s annual electricity consumption.
At: http://www.udel.edu/udaily/2012/jan/wind-power-012712.html
So far, the U.S. is lagging far behind other nations in deploying offshore wind turbines, even though wind power is less expensive than solar PV.

USAToday ran an article on Jan. 31by Wendy Koch titled, NASA: Global warming caused mostly by humans. She quoted a NASA study, published in the December issue of Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, which said that incoming radiation from the sun now exceeds outgoing by radiation by 0.58 watts per square meter and that increasing concentrations of CO2 will cause the imbalance to increase, speeding warming. To get back to radiation balance we would need to reduce the CO2 concentration from the current 392 ppm to 350 ppm. Contrary to claims in a Jan. 27 Wall Street Journal article that global warming is not occurring (without evidence for the claim), “all 11 years of the 21st century so far (2001–2011) rank among the 13 warmest in the 132-year period of record.” At: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/greenhouse/post/2012/01/nasa-global-warming-caused-mostly-by-humans/1

On. Feb. 1 the Wall Street Journal published an article - Check With Climate Scientists for Views on Climate - by a group of distinguished climate scientists in answer to a Jan. 27 Op. Ed. – No Need to Panic about Global Warming - by some climate skeptics, who claimed that the earth hasn’t warmed for the last 10 years and that climate changes can be attributed to sun spots – not anthropogenic CO2. The real climate scientists wrote. “Research shows that more than 97% of scientists actively publishing in the field agree that climate change is real and human caused. It would be an act of recklessness for any political leader to disregard the weight of evidence and ignore the enormous risks that climate change clearly poses. In addition, there is very clear evidence that investing in the transition to a low-carbon economy will not only allow the world to avoid the worst risks of climate change, but could also drive decades of economic growth.” You can find both at: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204740904577193270727472662.html

On Feb. 2 Michael Brune, the Executive Director of the Sierra Club, posted a blot titled Coming Clean – The Sierra Club and Natural Gas. In it he pointed out a change in Club policy that once favored natural gas as a bridge fuel between coal and renewable energy sources. That has changed because the way that a lot of natural gas is now produced in the U.S. involves hydraulic fracturing (fracking) of gas-bearing shale that poses unacceptable risks – especially to fresh water supplies. The club even gave up substantial financial contributions from Chesapeake Energy, one of the country’s largest natural gas suppliers, in order to avoid any conflict of interest. It’s an inspiring story. At:
http://sierraclub.typepad.com/michaelbrune/2012/02/the-sierra-club-and-natural-gas.html

The Feb. 3 NY Times ran an article by Leslie Kaufman and Kate Zernkie titled, Activists Fight Green Projects, Seeing U.N. Plot. They write, “Across the country, activists with ties to the Tea Party are railing against all sorts of local and state efforts to control sprawl and conserve energy. They brand government action for things like expanding public transportation routes and preserving open space as part of a United Nations-led conspiracy to deny property rights and herd citizens toward cities.” At: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/04/us/activists-fight-green-projects-seeing-un-plot.html?pagewanted=all
Though the Tea Party types can seem a little kooky, I consider them a serious threat to efforts to improve our environment and deal with the threat of climate change. Backed by lots of fossil fuel money, they are having a chilling effect on an open discussion of important issues, on which our future depends.

Bill McKibben, the founder of www.350.org, has a Feb. 7 post in Grist titled, The great carbon bubble: Why the fossil-fuel industry fights so hard. It shows a beautiful recent NASA image similar to the classic “Blue Marble” photo of the earth taken by Apollo from space in 1972. Trouble is, there is little or no snow in the mountains of the Western U.S. this winter. Comparing the photos clearly shows the change that has occurred in the last 40 years. The article goes on to show how Republican candidates for President, funded by fossil fuel interests, are struggling this year to deny the reality of global climate change. He writes, “Our GOP presidential candidates are working hard to make sure no one thinks they’d appease chemistry and physics. At the last Republican debate in Florida, Rick Santorum insisted that he should be the nominee because he’d caught on earlier than Newt or Mitt to the global warming “hoax.”” It’s a sad day for America – and for the Earth’s people. It’s a really good article. At: http://grist.org/fossil-fuels/the-great-carbon-bubble-why-the-fossil-fuel-industry-fights-so-hard/

The Feb. 11 issue of ScienceNews has an article by Devin Powell titled, Amazon may become greenhouse gas emitter. Based on regular measurements on about 100,000 trees, scientists estimated that the Amazon was taking up about 1.5 billion tons of CO2 in 2000. However, as a result of deforestation for agriculture and a couple of severe droughts since then that have killed a lot of trees, the Amazon is turning from a net carton sink to a source. The total carbon stored in the forest is estimated to be the equivalent of 10 years of global CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. The concern is that climate change and human activity may eventually destroy the rain forest, adding its 100 billion tons of carbon to the atmosphere. At: http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/337827/title/Amazon_may_become_greenhouse_gas_emitter

ScienceNews has a Feb. 16 article by Devin Powell titled, Natural gas wells leakier than believed. He reports on a study to be published soon by Gabrielle Pétron, an atmospheric scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the University of Colorado at Boulder. Her group has monitored the atmosphere near Denver and found that methane from a leaking natural gas field can be found when the wind is blowing from that direction. The field source of the methane can be determined by analyzing for other light hydrocarbons that are typical of the field. She concludes that about 4% of the gas produced from the field is leaked into the atmosphere, where it has a powerful greenhouse effect. Leakage of natural gas produced by fracking shale formations in other parts of the country is also a concern. At: http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/338505/title/Natural_gas_wells_leakier_than_believed

On Feb. 19 the Wilmington News Journal published an article by Sally Bakewell titled, Who pays for damages if stored CO2 bubbles up? It points out that the sudden release of carbon dioxide from Lake Nyos in Cameroon in 1986 that killed 1700 people is a shadow looming over the financing of attempts to capture and store CO2 from power plants as a way to reduce GHG emissions from burning fossil fuels. While the IPCC has said that there may be enough capacity in suitable sites around the world to hold 2000 Gt (billion tons) of CO2 (about 40 times last year’s global emissions), the sticking point is who will pay for the damages if the CO2 is released (for example in an earthquake). Insurance companies are unwilling to write 100-year or 1000-year policies, so insuring against catastrophic loss may be left to the government (us) to insure. Sound familiar? At: http://www.allvoices.com/news/11549193-who-pays-for-damages-if-stored-co2-bubbles-up


The following items are from the Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI), Carol Werner, Executive Director. Past issues of its newsletter are posted on its website under "publications"
 at http://www.eesi.org/publications/Newsletters/CCNews/ccnews.htm
EESI’s newsletter is intended for all interested parties, particularly the policymaker community.


Obama Administration Publishes Draft Climate Change Adaptation Strategy

On January 19, the Obama administration, along with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies released a draft national strategy to prepare for the impacts of climate change. The paper proposes strategies to mitigate climate change over the next five years, and provides a road map to manage wildlife habitats. “The impacts of climate change are already here and those who manage our landscapes are already dealing with them,” said Deputy Secretary of the Interior David J. Hayes. “The reality is that rising sea levels, warmer temperatures, loss of sea ice and changing precipitation patterns – trends scientists have definitively connected to climate change – are already affecting the species we care about, the services we value, and the places we call home. A national strategy will help us prepare and adapt.” The strategy is available for public review and comment through March 5, 2012.
For additional information see: Proposal, NOAA Press Release, National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy Website

Climate Skepticism Reaching Classrooms

Teachers in some states are facing opposition to teaching climate science from parents, school boards and other groups. Texas, Louisiana, Tennessee and Oklahoma have introduced legislation or educational standards that give climate denial time in the classroom. Resolutions denying climate change passed in the South Dakota and Utah legislatures. “Teachers are getting hammered for teaching climate change, the same way they are for teaching evolution,” said Eugenie Scott, executive director of the National Center for Science Education (NCSE). NCSE is offering tools and support to parents and teachers in effectively teaching climate science to students. Climate science is typically taught in middle school earth science or high school environmental science classes. In December, new national science standards for K-12 will be released and are expected to include climate change.
For additional information see: Forbes, Los Angeles Times

2011 Ninth Warmest Year Since 1880

According to National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the global average surface temperature in 2011 was the ninth warmest since 1880 and the 10 hottest years on record all occurred in the past 20 years. Separately, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported the average temperature in the United States during 2011 was the 23rd warmest year in their historical records. The average temperature for 2011 for the U.S. was 53.8 degrees, 1 degree warmer than the 20th century average. "We know the planet is absorbing more energy than it is emitting," said James E. Hansen, NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), "So we are continuing to see a trend toward higher temperatures.” According to NASA, the increased temperatures are a result of increased greenhouse gasses, especially CO2.
For additional information see: Reuters, NOAA Report, NASA Report

China Facing Climate Change Risks

China’s prosperity is threatened by flooding, droughts and shifting land-use according to the Chinese government’s “Second National Assessment Report on Climate Change.” The report states, "China faces extremely grim ecological and environmental conditions under the impact of continued global warming and changes to China's regional environment." Chinese emissions will continue to increase until 2030, with few major reductions until 2050. China's emissions, which grew 10 percent in 2010, account for a quarter of worldwide C02 emissions. Imbalances in water distribution will have the greatest impacts, with severe water shortages in 18 provinces and flooding in low lying regions. Changing weather patterns will also affect rice and cotton production. Up to 2020, Chinese emission reductions will amount to 10 trillion yuan ($1.6 trillion), with half the expenditure for energy efficiency and renewables. 
In related news, Beijing publicly announced on January 19 that the capital’s air quality was hazardous in at least two areas of the city. In response to complaints from residents that the city government was downplaying the pollution as “fog”, officials cancelled flights at the city airport and closed highways because of low visibility. Surrounded by mountains on the north and west sides of Beijing, smog and soot from heavy traffic and coal plant exhaust hang in the air over the city until weather patterns clear the area. Beijing officials have announced new steps to improve air quality, imposing regulations to control the release of pollutants from local industries.
For additional information see: Reuters, Washington Post

Eliminating Fossil Fuel Subsidies Could Provide Half of 2035 Reduction Targets

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), $409 billion was spent by 37 governments in 2010 to subsidize the price of fossil fuels. “They need to be removed for a healthy energy economy . . . . Energy is significantly underpriced in many parts of the world, leading to wasteful consumption, price volatility and fuel smuggling. It's also undermining the competitiveness of renewables," according to Fatih Birol, IEA chief economist. The subsidies are provided in developing countries to directly reduce the price of fossil fuels, while in developed countries, they are used for tax breaks or beneficial access to land and infrastructure. Without subsidies, by 2015, 750 million tonnes of CO2 and by 2035, 2.6 gigatonnes of CO2, would be eliminated. This reduction will provide half the needed CO2 emission reduction to limit global warming to 2°C.
For additional information see: The Guardian

Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative Cuts 67 Million Carbon Allowances

The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative plans to eliminate an oversupply of 67 million unsold carbon allowances. The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast-based cap and trade system requires electric power providers to pay for emissions by purchasing carbon allowances equal to one ton of carbon dioxide emissions. Unused allowances can be sold by the companies to other emitters of pollution. The move to remove unused allowances will increase prices and lead to a decrease in CO2 emissions. According to Ashley Lawson, a senior analyst with Thomson Reuters Point Carbon, while the program has proved itself successful, the oversupply of allowances created a lower price for them, easing the pressure on electricity providers to emit less. While the prices have been lower than expected, almost $1 billion in revenue has been generated for the 10 original states, most of which has gone to energy efficiency programs.
For additional information see: New York Times

USDA Updates Plant Hardiness Map for a Warmer Climate

The US Department of Agriculture has updated the Plant Hardiness Zone Map to reflect climate change. The map is used by gardeners to determine which plants will grow in each location based on the average annual minimum temperature. Plants are able to thrive farther north because the coldest days of the year are now warmer and spring is arriving earlier. "People who grow plants are well aware of the fact that temperatures have gotten more mild throughout the year, particularly in the winter time," according to Boston University biology professor Richard Primack. "There's a lot of things you can grow now that you couldn't grow before." The new map is based on temperature data from 1976 to 2005 and reflects a two-thirds of a degree increase in average temperatures from the previous map.
For additional information see: ABC, AP, Plant Map

Climate Change Affects the Global Dinner Plate

On January 20 in Science, researchers published a report urging policymakers to include agriculture in global actions against climate change. Led by John Beddington, Britain’s chief science adviser, the paper states, "Global agriculture must produce more food to feed a growing population, yet scientific assessments point to climate change as a growing threat to agricultural yields and food security." Climate change-related weather events wipe out large crops of available food worldwide, and raise the overall price of remaining supplies. Farmers and scientists have begun to work together to find solutions to the food shortage. In Israel researchers have developed a way to use satellite images to assist farmers with harvests, relaying climate data to farmers that tell them when to plant seeds, when to harvest crops and which crops work best for each square kilometer of land. In Africa, farmers are using agroforestry to mix crops and livestock with shrubbery and trees in order to reduce deforestation and use available animal manure to fertilize the crops.
For additional information see: CNBC, NPR, Reuters, Time, Report

Climate Change Acidifies Oceans Beyond Marine Organisms’ Limits

On January 22, in Nature Climate Change scientists report that over the last 200 years, carbon dioxide emissions have raised the acidity of the world’s oceans to the highest levels in history. "In some regions, the man-made rate of change in ocean acidity since the Industrial Revolution is 100 times greater than the natural rate of change between the Last Glacial Maximum and pre-industrial times," explains lead author Dr. Tobias Friedrich, of the University of Hawaii. The acidic environment is pushing coral reefs, shellfish, and many marine species beyond their natural survival limits. The scientists discovered that greenhouse gas emissions, when reacting with saltwater, significantly reduced the calcification rate of corals and mollusks. Decreased calcification rates impact the reproduction speed of the marine animal’s skeletal system and weaken the organisms by about 15 per cent, with some species reaching a 40 percent drop in calcification rates. "Our results suggest that severe reductions are likely to occur in coral reef diversity, structural complexity and resilience by the middle of this century," says co-author Axel Timmermann. 
In related news, the United Nations Environment Program reports countries could greatly reduce the amount of marine pollution by strengthening fertilizer regulation and introducing incentives to encourage the recycling of nutrients. Less polluted beaches and oceans would increase the tourism industry and increase the areas’ overall value. Countries could also further reduce marine pollution by replacing traditional non-renewable energy sources with wind, wave and tidal power, and greatly reduce the levels of greenhouse gas emissions acidifying the ocean.
For additional information see: Daily Mail, USA Today, Science Daily, Monga Bay, Reuters

California Passes Regulation for Cleaner Cars

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) unanimously passed a package of vehicle polices to reduce the state’s overall greenhouse gas emissions by putting more electric and hybrid cars on the road. According to the new rules, one in seven new cars in California will be a zero emissions or plug-in hybrid car by 2025. In addition, emission standards for all new cars sold in California were strengthened, making them the toughest in the nation. By placing 1.4 million alternative fuel cars on the road, CARB board members expect the rules to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 34 percent and smog by 75 percent. "These robust, zero-emission vehicle standards will provide the market assurance automakers and the energy industry need to transform the electric vehicle into a mass-market success," said Don Anair, senior engineer with the Union of Concerned Scientists, Clean Vehicles program. While the new fuel-efficient technologies will increase the cost of the vehicle by almost $2,000, owners are expected to recoup over $6,000 in fuel savings over the lifetime of the car.
For additional information see: Reuters,Los Angeles Times, Union of Concerned Scientists, Mercury News, Sustainable Business

Boulder City Council Updates Climate Action Plan

A new multi-department committee in Boulder, Colorado, will "begin an evaluation and planning process that will engage the Boulder community around a vision for future (greenhouse gas) emissions reductions." The city council is debating whether to extend the city’s Climate Action Plan (CAP) tax, set to expire in March 2013. The CAP tax collects over $1 million per year from city utility bills, and is redistributed towards city programs that focus on mitigating climate change. Boulder’s Environmental Advisory Board wrote a letter to the city council asking to extend the CAP tax. Board member Stephen Morgan said, "I think (climate change) is a huge issue that's facing us, not just in Boulder but the whole country," he said. "We can't shy away from big problems because they're big. I think difficult problems have answers, and it's for the best and the brightest to stand up and find out what those answers are."
For additional information see: The Daily Camera

Forests Capture More Carbon than Previously Thought

A recent map published in Nature Climate Change actively measures the various biomass and carbon storage potential of tropical forests and vegetation in Africa, Asia, and South America. Scientists from Woods Hole Research Centre, Boston University, and the University of Maryland used remote sensing and field data to produce the map. In addition to cataloging carbon storage of forests, the researchers were able to catalog the various levels of emissions produced during deforestation. "For the first time we were able to derive accurate estimates of carbon densities using satellite LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) observations in places that have never been measured," said Alessandro Baccini, assistant scientist at Woods Hole. According to the map, 32 million acres of forests are cut each year, releasing over 1.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the air.
For additional information see: Forbes, Study, Times of India

Study: Model Predicts Changes in Malaria Infections

Climate change will cause changes in both the geographic occurrence of malaria and intensity of transmission over the next 50 years, according to Dr. Andrew Morse from the University of Liverpool, one of the authors of the study published in Environmental Health Perspectives. The study combined simulations of mosquito bite rates and transmission rates with a climate model to forecast malaria infection across Africa. Increases in surface temperature and decreased rainfall will reduce malaria infection in many tropical areas, but in the sub-Sahara Sahel region and East Africa, transmission rates will increase. Malaria is most common in warm, humid environments, and an increase of 2°Celsius may cause epidemics in areas currently free of malaria.
For additional information see: Planet Earth Online

Political Leaders Shape Public Opinion of Climate Change

According to a study published in the journal Climate Change, public opinion regarding climate change issues is greatly influenced by political leaders and the media as opposed to scientific research and extreme weather events. In the study, a Climate Change Threat Index was generated by using polling data based upon multiple factors of influence including “extreme weather events, scientific information, media coverage, congressional attention, and advocacy groups on both sides of the issue.” J. Craig Jenkins of Ohio State University, co-author of the study, said, “More than any other single factor, the content and tone of political discourse about climate change impacted public opinion . . . . The politics overwhelms the science.” The study also found increased media coverage of climate change increases the level of public concern.
For additional information see: The Energy Collective, Yale Environment 360, Columbia Journalism Review, AlterNet

Island Nations Seek World Court Opinion on Climate Change

Palau President Johnson Toribiong has formed an expert advisory committee with other island nations to bring climate change to the World Court. Michael Gerrard, director of the Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia University and one of the advisory committee members, says, “The basic argument is that under international law, no nation may cause pollution that causes damage in other nations. Thus the major emitting countries should reduce their greenhouse gas emissions so as to reduce the damage that sea level rise and other climate impacts cause to the island nations.” The nations hope the court will find greenhouse gas emitting nations have an obligation under international law to reduce those emissions. The countries fear rising sea levels will submerge their low lying islands.
For additional information see: Dawn, Los Angeles Times

Glacial Melting Less than Expected

Some of the Earth's glaciers and ice caps are melting more slowly than expected, contributing about 0.4mm of sea level rise per year, less than half the amount predicted, according to a joint satellite project run by NASA and the German government. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) was able to capture more accurate measurements than previously possible about glaciers throughout the world. Ian Howat, a glacier and ice-sheet specialist at Ohio State University states, “The good news here is that they are not losing mass as quickly as we thought. The bad news is that while we’re not losing mass from ice caps and glaciers as quickly, we’re still not gaining it anywhere.” Previous overestimates of melting could be as a result that many glaciers studied are at lower altitudes and, therefore, more prone to melting while higher glaciers are colder and less susceptible to warm temperatures.
For additional information see: Christian Science Monitor, CNET, The Independent

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Coalition for Climate Change Study and Action

CLIMATE CHANGE NEWS FOR JANUARY 2012

CC NEWS FOR JAN. 2012

The Dec. 20 issue of National Geographic Daily News has an article by Rick Lovett titled, Melting Glaciers Mean Double Trouble for Water Supplies. He writes, “Mountain glaciers long have been known to be in retreat as the planet warms. But the process is occurring even more rapidly than previously believed …” The article has lots of good information about global freshwater supplies and use. At: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2011/12/1112-melting-glaciers-mean-double-trouble-for-water-supplies

The Dec. 22 web issue of ScienceNews has an article by Devin Powell titled, Groundwater dropping globally. He reports recently published measurements of changes in groundwater around the globe, determined by GRACE satellites, which can measure small changes in gravity. It appears that groundwater is being pumped out for agriculture in many places at rates greater than it can be replaced by precipitation. Jay Famiglietti, a hydrologist at the UC Irvine, says, “Groundwater is being depleted at a rapid clip in virtually of all of the major aquifers in the world's arid and semiarid regions.” “Climate change will only worsen the problem.” At: http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/337097/title/Groundwater_dropping_globally

The National Academy of Sciences has produced a couple of excellent short (5-7 minute) videos summarizing reports titled, America’s Climate Choices – Advancing the Science of Climate Change, and America’s Energy Future. At: http://www.nasonline.org/news-and-multimedia/multimedia-gallery/nrc-americas-climate-choices.html and http://www.nasonline.org/news-and-multimedia/multimedia-gallery/nrc-america-s-energy-future.html

The Opinion Pages of the NY Times have an editorial for January 2 titled, Where the Real Jobs Are. The editorial points out that the number new jobs that could be provided by the Keystone XL pipeline, bringing tar sands bitumen from Canada to the Texas Gulf Coast, has been vastly overestimated by Republican House Speaker John Boehner (20,000) and presidential candidate Jon Huntsman (100,000). “A more accurate forecast from the federal government, one with which TransCanada, the pipeline company, agrees, says the project would create 6,000 to 6,500 temporary construction jobs at best, for two years.” The editorial points out that Republican efforts to stall or turn back clean energy development are costing far more permanent jobs and causing the U.S. to fall far behind other industrial countries that are making the transition to a clean energy future. At: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/02/opinion/where-the-real-jobs-are.html?_r=1&src=tp&smid=fb-share

Kathleen Moore and Michael Nelson published a really inspiring piece in Common Dreams on Jan. 3 titled, What is Morally Required? It says, in part, “So let us say it loud and clear: It's wrong to wreck the world. To take what we need for our comfortable lives and leave a ransacked and dangerously unstable world for the future is not worthy of us as moral beings. And when, to enrich a powerful few, rich nations threaten to disrupt forever the great hydrological and climatic cycles that support all the lives on Earth? This is moral monstrosity on a planetary scale. We have a responsibility, individual and collective, to leave a world as beautiful and life-sustaining as the world that has nourished us.” At: https://www.commondreams.org/view/2012/01/03-9
Kathleen Dean Moore and Michael P. Nelson are co-editors of Moral Ground: Ethical Action for a Planet in Peril, a call to climate action from nearly 100 of the world's moral leaders.

The NY Times for Jan. 7 had an editorial titled, One Bad Energy Subsidy Expires, saying that the 45¢ per gallon tax credit for oil companies to blend ethanol into gasoline has finally ended, saving taxpayers $5-6 billion per year. It boosted corn prices, deepened the budget deficit, and did little for the environment, since new land was cleared to replace the food lost to fuel production. Also (not mentioned) is the fact that a lot of fossil fuel is used to produce fertilizer to grow the corn and to distill the dilute solution of ethanol from fermentation up to a concentration where it will burn. Congress should now end the century+ subsidies to the oil industry that now cost about $4 billion a yr. The article says, “Congress should end the subsidies to Big Oil and redeploy the money saved to support truly new energy technologies, like wind and solar power, or even hi-tech biofuels that don’t harm the environment and threaten the food supply.” At: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/07/opinion/one-bad-energy-subsidy-expires.html

The Jan. 12 issue of Waste & Recycling News reported the release by the EPA of it new Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, which allows users to look at greenhouse gas emissions from thousands of large facilities across the country. Users can search by state, facility, industrial sector or the type of greenhouse gas. Power plants were the largest source of GHG emissions with 2,324 MT (megatons or million metric tons) of carbon dioxide equivalent released from 1,555 facilities in 2010. In my state, Delaware, about half of the power plant emissions (2.1 MT) were from the Indian River coal-fired plant in Dagsboro. U.S. landfills released 117 MT of carbon dioxide equivalent from 1,199 facilities, or about 3.6% of the total of all GHGs. In Delaware about a third of the landfill GHG (0.11 MT of CO2-eq) was methane from the large Cherry Island landfill in Wilmington. At: http://www.wasterecyclingnews.com/email.html?id=1326380858
[A ton of CO2-eq as methane is the mass of methane that will cause the same global warming over 100 years as a ton of CO2 – about 0.04 ton.]

On Jan. 15 the Associated Press in NJ.com posted an article titled, Firm set to move forward on offshore wind farm near Atlantic City. It said that Fishermen’s Energy of Cape May plans to install five 5 MW wind turbines 2.8 miles off the NJ coast – the first offshore wind turbines in the U.S. – to be operational in 2013. The Offshore Wind Economic Development Act, signed by NJ Governor Christie in August 2010, calls for 1,100 megawatts of wind energy by the end of 2012. At: http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/01/firm_set_to_move_forward_on_of.html
This us a big step forward for the U.S. Offshore wind has been generated in Denmark for over 20 years.

Sea level rise (SLR) is a growing concern for coastal states as its rate increases along with the increasing rate of loss of ice from Greenland and Antarctica. Maryland is ahead of many other states in its adaptation planning. In 2008 its Commission on Climate Change Adaptation and Response Working Group - supported by its Department of Natural Resources and Department of Planning - released a report titled, Comprehensive Strategy for Reducing Maryland’s Vulnerability to Climate Change Phase I: Sea-level rise and coastal storms. On page 8 it says, “Climate change, sea-level rise, and associated coastal storms are putting Maryland’s people, property, natural resources and public investments at risk.” At: http://www.dnr.state.md.us/coastsmart/pdfs/comprehensive_strategy.pdf

A comprehensive 2008 maryland Climate Action Plan, including targets and a timetable for GHG emission reductions, and updates can be found at: http://search.maryland.gov/search?q=+climate+action+plan&site=Environment&entqr=0&ud=1&sort=date%3AD%3AL%3Ad1&output=xml_no_dtd&oe=UTF-8&ie=UTF-8&client=search_md_1&proxystylesheet=search_md_1

In October 2011 the Georgetown Climate Center issued a report by Jessica Grannis titled, Adaptation Tool Kit: Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Land Use - How Governments Can Use Land-Use Practices to Adapt to Sea-Level Rise. The Foreword says, “Rising sea levels in the foreseeable future present new challenges now for coastal land use planning. Local governments, which bear the largest responsibility for coastal planning, long have struggled with balancing strong demand for increasing development with protection of fragile environmental and cultural resources. State governments, too, have sometimes created special planning and regulatory bodies to address coastal issues at a larger scale. Now these same governments, in a time of diminished revenues, must consider the threats that substantial sea-level rise pose to current planning, existing development, and beleaguered ecological systems. These threats include inundation, flooding, enhanced storm surges, loss of infrastructure, destruction of wetlands and beaches, and increased risks for public health and safety. Although taking regulatory initiatives to adapt to predicted future threats can be difficult politically, it also can conserve resources, mitigate crises, and protect ecosystems.” This well-written Toolkit “provides local and state governments and their citizens with practical knowledge to help adapt to sea-level rise in a prudent and balanced manner.” It “offers a menu of generally used legal devices that can reduce future harms.” At: http://www.georgetownclimate.org/sites/default/files/Adaptation_Tool_Kit_SLR.pdf

The following items are from the Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI), Carol Werner, Executive Director. Past issues of its newsletter are posted on its website under "publications"
 at http://www.eesi.org/publications/Newsletters/CCNews/ccnews.htm
EESI’s newsletter is intended for all interested parties, particularly the policymaker community.

Climate Change, Drought, Killing Millions of Trees World-Wide

On Monday, the Texas Forest Service released a statement reporting that 100 million to 500 million trees died during the 2011 state-wide drought. Ashe junipers, loblolly pines, cedars, and post oaks trees were among the hardest hit by the prolonged drought. 1.5 million trees in Texas also died in a 4 million acre wildfire that encompassed a large portion of the state, adding to the total amount of trees killed over a one-year period. 

In related news, independent studies lead by scientists at the University of California – Berkeley and Stanford University find that a hotter climate, coupled with an increased number of prolonged droughts, are killing a large number of trees around the world. Trembling aspen trees are dying off in North America, due to several droughts between 2000 and 2004, and one in six trees in Africa have died from droughts between 1954 and 2002. “Rainfall in the Sahel has dropped 20-30 percent in the 20th century, the world’s most severe long-term drought since measurements from rainfall gauges began in the mid-1800s,” said Patrick Gonzalez, lead author on the study at University of California – Berkeley. “Previous research already established climate change as the primary cause of the drought, which has overwhelmed the resilience of the trees.”
For additional information see: Science Daily, Berkeley University, New York Times, Reuters, Washington Post

World Health Organization Declares Climate Change an Emerging Health Issue

At the United Nations Conference of Parties meeting in Durban, the World Health Organization (WHO) stated that effects of climate change are creating world-wide health issues, including increased bacterial diseases caused by contaminated water, increased asthma and heart attacks caused by ground-level ozone, and allergies brought on by changes in pollen. Various health professionals, advocates, and policy makers assembled in Durban on December 4 at the first Global Climate and Health Summit, and asked the United Nations to “recognize the health benefits of climate mitigation and take bold and substantive action to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions in order to protect and promote public health.” While attending the Global Climate and Health Summit, Dr. Rajen Naidoo of the Nelson Mandela Medical School in Durban said, "Just as the HIV epidemic caused us to have a reversal in recent gains in public health in this country, so too does climate change now."
For additional information see: Scientific American, Durban Declaration on Climate and Health

Study: Climate Change Shifts Global Ecosystems

A recent study by NASA reports that by 2100, global warming will convert nearly 40 percent of ecosystems from one type to another; converting forests to grasslands, and grasslands to deserts. The study also states that climate change will disrupt the balance between endangered species, and affect the world’s water, food, and energy supplies. "For more than 25 years, scientists have warned of the dangers of human-induced climate change," said Jon Bergengren, lead scientist on the study. "Our study introduces a new view of climate change, exploring the ecological implications of a few degrees of global warming. While warnings of melting glaciers, rising sea levels and other environmental changes are illustrative and important, ultimately, it's the ecological consequences that matter most." Researchers from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena found their results by using computer models to project 10 different climate simulations using data from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report.
For additional information see: Science Daily, Study

Report Finds ‘Ignorance is Bliss’ Regarding the Public and Climate Change Politics

A recent study in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology finds that people insulate their ignorance about a complex issue by deferring to government and scientists. Participants in the study rejected complex negative information and opted to rely on politicians to handle complicated issues. "Climate change is a global issue that, seemingly, is beyond the efforts of any one individual. . . . I think a lot of people feel unable to do anything about it," said Steven Shepherd, author of the report. "The next best thing is to either deny it, or defer the issue to governments to deal with it. . . . In our research we find that one easy way to maintain that psychologically comforting trust that an issue is being dealt with is to simply avoid the issue." Researchers also found that a person’s views change due to pressure from society, often changing their views to escape any stigma from one’s community.
For additional information see: E&E Publishing

South Florida Releases Climate Change Action Plan

On December 9, the South Florida Climate Change Compact released a climate change action plan that combines efforts from Monroe, Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties. The action plan is a result of various community leaders, scientists, and local residents working together over a two-year period to study potential impacts of climate change on the South Florida region. The plan recommends 100 various projects to improve local transportation and natural infrastructure, water, energy and fuel supplies over the next five years. “Southeast Florida is uniquely vulnerable to sea level rise, with very few areas of the country having as many economic assets at risk,” said Steve Adams, Climate Adaptation Senior Program Advisor for the Institute for Sustainable Communities. The compact includes 30 percent of Floridians, totaling 5.6 million people from 108 municipalities.
For additional information see: Miami Herald

India Refuses to Sign Agreement to Reduce Emissions

The Indian Government declared that they will not ratify a pact to reduce their country’s greenhouse gas emissions, stating that an agreement to do so would hurt the country’s economic development. Environment Minister Jayanthi Natarajan said, “There is no question of signing a legally binding agreement at this point of our development. We need to make sure that our development does not suffer. Our emissions are bound to grow as we have to ensure our social and economic development and fulfill the imperative of poverty eradication.”
For additional information see: The Pioneer

World Faiths Unite on Environmental Responsibility

A recent study by the Citizens Climate Lobby states that religious communities worldwide agree that humans need to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions to combat climate change. Lynn Whitney, head writer of the report, said that she was urged by her mother, retired biologist Ellie Whitney, and other members of the Citizens Climate Lobby to research different religious organizations views on climate change. “I think what surprised me the most was the general consensus from all the different religious groups. Among the Judeo-Christian groups, I was really surprised to find that evangelicals recognized that humans may have had something to do with causing climate change and should be involved in helping to mitigate the effects on those people most in need,” said Whitney.
For additional information see: Ashbury Park Press, Daily Record, Report, Citizens Climate Lobby

Research on Links Between Extreme Weather and Climate Change Face Budget Constraints

In 2011, the United States experienced twelve extreme weather events that caused at least $1 billion each in damages, together totaling over $50 billion. An average year sees only three or four such events, leaving researchers to explain 2011’s severity and determine if similar weather patterns can be expected in the future. NOAA, the National Science Foundation, and the Department of Energy all fund studies to better understand the causes of extreme weather events, including the effects of climate change. This research can help to improve short- and long-term forecasting of extreme events, but funding to do so is becoming elusive. Dr. Jane Lubchenco, the director of NOAA, cautions that shrinking budgets make it “more and more challenging to devote resources to many of our research programs.”
For additional information see: New York Times

California Proposes Advanced Clean Car Regulations

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) proposed a package of regulations that would reduce emissions 75 percent by 2025 and cut greenhouse gas emissions 52 million metric tons, by swapping out current automobiles for 1.4 million electric, plug-in hybrid and hydrogen-powered cars. "These rules will make California the advanced car capital of the world, driving the innovation, patents and technology that will generate thousands of jobs here, and set the stage for us to compete in the global clean car marketplace," said James Goldstene, Air Resources Board Executive Officer. The CARB says the new regulations will reduce greenhouse gases by more than 870 million metric tons through 2050, and create an additional 21,000 jobs in 2025, increasing to 37,000 new jobs in 2030.
For additional information see: Business Green

Report Lists Sweden, UK, and Germany as Top Countries Combating Climate Change

The Climate Change Performance Index 2012 lists Sweden, the United Kingdom (UK), and Germany as the countries doing the most to combat climate change. While the report leaves spots #1 - 3 blank, signifying that no country is fulfilling the necessary steps to limit global warming to below two degrees Celsius, Sweden, UK, and Germany were listed as #4 - 6. Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan and Iran were the last countries on the list. Germanwatch and Climate Action Network Europe (CAN Europe) compiled the Climate Change Performance Index 2012, listing the world's 58 biggest emitters of greenhouse gases. The organizations used a combination of total emissions, trends and an assessment of domestic actions to rank the countries that made the list.
For additional information see: Deutsche Welle

Natural Disasters in 2011 Set Record

Munich Re, the global reinsurance company, announced that 2011 was the costliest year on record from natural disasters at over $380 billion. This figure was largely driven by the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, but was buoyed by increases in climate-related disasters such as hurricanes, tornadoes, flooding and wildfires. Munich Re maintains a massive database of global natural disasters since 1980, and notes that climate-related disasters have steadily grown in number and intensity over that time. The company believes this to be further evidence of climate change. This continued trend, the company noted, could soon make property insurance in vulnerable areas prohibitively expensive or even uninsurable. Munich Re highlighted the United States, where homeowners last year collected $1.16 in insurance payouts for every $1 paid in premiums. Global insurance industry losses from natural disasters for the year came to $105 billion.
For additional information see: Science News, Reuters, Munich Re Presentation

EPA Publishes Interactive Map of Greenhouse Gas Emitters

On January 11, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released an interactive online map that identifies sources of major greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters in the United States, including chemical factories, paper mills, and power plants. The data, current through 2010, covers 80 percent of U.S. GHG emitters from large industries. Environmental groups are using the new online tool to highlight local and national utilities that have the worst emissions, and applaud the map as a major accomplishment that can educate government officials and members of the public about local sources of pollution. David Doniger, policy director for Climate and Clean Air at the Natural Resources Defense Council, said, “[the EPA database] means that every high school student or local reporter can see who the biggest carbon polluters are in his or her own backyard. . . Carbon pollution and climate change are very abstract when you’re dealing with national or international data. This brings it home.”
For additional information see: New York Times, EPA, Climate Progress

Climate Change Adversely Affecting North American Bird Population

Recent studies show that severe drought, a lack of available food, and a warming winter are killing off several species of North American birds throughout the United States and Canada. In Texas, endangered North American whooping cranes spend the winter in the Gulf of Mexico, gathering enough sustenance to sustain a 2,500 mile journey to their summer nesting grounds in Canada. Because of the record year-long drought in Texas and the Gulf of Mexico, the cranes are not finding enough food or water during their winter in the Gulf of Mexico, and are in danger of perishing on the return trip to Canada. Canadian Boreal ducks are also facing similar issues, with scaup and scoter duck populations dramatically decreasing by up to 60 percent in the last 30 years. Scientists at the University of British Columbia found that since the ducks’ wetland habitats were becoming warmer, spring was arriving 11 days earlier than when the ducks return from their winter migration south. "Because of climate change, the ducks don't have the food that they need when they need it," said Stuart Slattery, a research scientist with Ducks Unlimited Canada. 

In related news, a decline in snowfall throughout the mountainous areas of Arizona is threatening five different species of American songbirds. Researchers at the US Geological Survey (USGS) and the University of Montana found that with less snow, the local elk population are staying longer at higher altitudes, and are consuming vegetation usually reserved for the songbirds. “The indirect effects of climate on plant communities may be just as important as the effects of climate change-induced mismatches between migrating birds and food abundance because plants, including trees, provide the habitat birds need to survive,” said Thomas Martin, lead author of the study and USGS biologist.
For additional information see: CBS News, CBC News, New York Times

Rising Sea Levels Endanger Nile Delta Region

A minuscule rise in sea levels could dramatically alter the Nile Delta landscape, putting large metropolitan cities like Alexandria, Port Said, and Damietta underwater. Over half of Egypt’s population live in the Nile Delta region, and any rise in sea levels, even less than ¼ of an inch, could displace millions of people from their homes and threaten the country’s agriculture. As sea levels rise, the saltwater invades the Delta’s fresh water aquifers, contaminating the fresh water supply for inhabitants and local crops.
For additional information see: Egypt Independent

China Considering Carbon Tax

Chinese officials are considering a carbon tax that would tighten regulations on industries and decrease China’s overall carbon footprint. China emitted 8.33 billion tons of carbon dioxide in 2011, representing 25 percent of emissions worldwide. The tax plan, to be implemented by 2015, would impose a tax rate of 10 yuan, (or $1.59,) for each ton of carbon dioxide a business discharges into the atmosphere. The rate would gradually increase over time, and tax cuts would be awarded to industries that take steps to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. Jia Kang, head of China’s Finance Ministry research center, said that the proposed carbon tax would have many benefits, including, “[raising] companies’ environmental costs and force them to improve their production technology.”
For additional information see: AFP, Financial Review, China Daily

Fast Action Climate Mitigation Measures Can Help Avoid 2°C Danger Limit

A new study in Science led by NASA scientist Drew Shindell identifies 14 fast action measures to reduce emissions of black carbon and ground-level ozone. These measures have the potential to deliver major benefits for climate, public health, and agriculture, and would prevent 0.5°C of warming by 2050—half of the warming otherwise expected. By implementing the climate mitigation measures, nations worldwide could save nearly five million lives per year, increase crop yields up to 135 billion metric tons, and reduce the rate of Arctic warming by two-thirds. “Because black carbon and ozone stay in the atmosphere only for a few hours to a few years, reducing these pollutants can immediately slow down climate change and some of its most harmful impacts while we continue to develop methods to reduce carbon dioxide,” says Durwood Zaelke, president of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development. The study analyzed over 400 control measures and selected 14 that use proven technologies that can be implemented cost-effectively.

For additional information see: NASA Study, Washington Post, AFP, Associated Press

Climate Change Likely to Delay Next Ice Age

Researchers warn that current levels of greenhouse gases (GHG) are not allowing the Earth to naturally cool in response to changes in orbital patterns. Though the natural heating and cooling cycle of the Earth would historically produce another ice age in 1,500 years, climate change would delay the next ice age by tens of thousands of years. Current ice sheets in Antarctica would continue to melt until the next cooling phase, adding to the rise of sea levels worldwide. Jim Channell, co-author of the report, said, “Ice sheets like those in western Antarctica are already destabilized by global warming. When they eventually slough off and become a part of the ocean’s volume, it will have a dramatic effect on sea level. . . considering the proportion of the world’s population that lives close to sea level, the implications of this sort of accelerated sea level rise are enormous.”
For additional information see: Reuters, Daily News and Analysis, Study, Voice of America

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Coalition for Climate Change Study and Action

CLIMATE CHANGE NEWS FOR DECEMBER 2011

CC NEWS FOR DEC. 2011

On Nov. 30 the National Climate Ethics Campaign was launched with an announcement and meeting in Washington D.C. The Statement of Our Nation’s Moral Obligation to Address Climate Change says in part:
“Although reducing carbon pollution will have costs, it will also produce incalculable benefits. Our response must therefore be driven not solely by near-term economic or national self-interest. We must also acknowledge and act on our long-standing moral obligation to protect current and future generations from suffering and death, to honor principles of justice and equity, and to protect the great Earth systems on which the wellbeing of all life, including ours, depends.” You can find the full statement at: http://climateethicscampaign.org/statement/ and can sign on as an individual or the leader of an organization at: http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/NationalClimateEthicsCampaign
I have signed and hope you will too.

Science News for Dec. 2 has an article by Janet Raloff titled, Arctic has taken a turn for the warmer. She says that the Arctic is losing ice both on land and sea as air and water temperatures increase. The melting of floating ice doesn’t contribute to sea level rise directly, but it does contribute indirectly because it exposes areas of dark blue water that absorb more of the sun’s energy, speeding the rate of warming. She writes, “Sea-ice loss in 2011 was the second most severe in the 32-year satellite record of Arctic monitoring.” At: http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/336669/title/Arctic_has_taken_a_turn_for_the_warmer

The LA Times Greenspace posted an article on Dec. 8 titled, Advocacy group's extreme weather map brings climate change home. The report shows a new Natural Resources Defense Council interactive map of the U.S., showing the locations and types of over 2900 weather records broken during the period of January through October 2011. Records broken include temperature, rainfall, snowfall, flooding, drought and wildfire. An interesting feature of the map plays the records broken like a video. At: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/greenspace/2011/12/nrdc-extreme-weather-map-brings-climate-change-home.html

The December 17 issue of the NY Times has an article by Justin Gillis titled, As Permafrost Thaws, Scientists Study the Risks. It points out that bubbles of methane gas can be seen bubbling out of the lakes formed from melting permafrost ice. Radioactive dating of the carbon shows that it was last in the atmosphere tens of thousands of years ago, before the coldest part of the last great ice age. It comes from plants that captured carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and converted it into carbohydrates by photosynthesis. That biological material is rotting as the permafrost melts – just like food in your freezer will rot if it warms up. If there is a lack of oxygen, as there is in peat bogs or at the bottom of partly frozen lakes, methanogenic bacteria convert the carbohydrates into a mixture of carbon dioxide and methane – a much more powerful greenhouse gas. Its release into the atmosphere can accelerate the warming and the release of more methane, until the situation gets out of hand. Scientists estimate that the amount of carbon in the permafrost could be as much as 1700 billion tons – twice the amount that is currently in the atmosphere, The article says, “In the minds of most experts, the chief worry is not that the carbon in the permafrost will break down quickly — typical estimates say that will take more than a century, perhaps several — but that once the decomposition starts, it will be impossible to stop.” At: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/17/science/earth/warming-arctic-permafrost-fuels-climate-change-worries.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&hp


The following items are from the Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI), Carol Werner, Executive Director. Past issues of its newsletter are posted on its website under "publications"
 at http://www.eesi.org/publications/Newsletters/CCNews/ccnews.htm
EESI’s newsletter is intended for all interested parties, particularly the policymaker community.

International Greenhouse Gas Emissions Goals Unlikely to Be Set in Durban

Nearly 200 nations began global climate discussions on Monday, November 28, in Durban, South Africa. The talks are the last chance to establish legally binding greenhouse gas emissions targets before the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012. European Union (EU) climate negotiators have called for a global deal on climate change mitigation to be reached by 2015 and in place by 2020. The EU expressed willingness to recommit to the Kyoto Protocol, but stated that the protocol will be effective only if other nations such as Russia, Japan, and Canada participate. The success of climate negotiations in Durban also depends on the United States and China, the world’s two top emitters, but both nations have consistently refused to commit to binding climate goals. The United Nations International Energy Agency says that current efforts of individual nations to mitigate climate change will not be enough to avoid a 2 degree Celsius rise in global average temperature. According to the agency, a comprehensive global treaty is necessary. The European Union, New Zealand, Australia, Norway and Switzerland may ratify a new deal on greenhouse gas emissions reductions in Durban, but the world’s top greenhouse gas emitters remain reluctant
For additional information see: Reuters, Reuters (2nd Article), Associated Press, Wall Street Journal

2011 One of the Hottest Years on Record

According to a new report by the World Meteorological Organization, or WMO, 2011 was one of the hottest years on record, and the hottest year on record with a La Nina event. According to the preliminary data, 2011 is only 12 (0.12) * degrees cooler than 2010, the hottest year on record. However, 2011 was the hottest year starting with La Nina, an upwelling of cooler water in the Pacific Ocean, which affects the weather patterns and typically lowers the global average temperature by 0.1 to 0.15 degrees. The largest variation from the average temperature was recorded in Russia, where temperatures were 4 degrees Celsius warmer from January to October. The report stated that this rise in temperature is caused by human activity, and it suggests that the earth is “rapidly approaching” a 2 to 2.4 degrees Celsius rise in temperature that would render the impacts of climate change dire and irreversible. "There is a consistent patter of a changing climate, with the last decade warmer than the previous one, and that decade warmer than the one before,” said Peter Stott of the UK Met Office, which provides climate data to the WMO. “There’s clearly a warming trend. That’s supported by other indicators such as disappearing Arctic sea ice, melting glaciers, and rising sea levels.”
For additional information see: Bloomberg, Reuters, Wall Street Journal, WMO Press Release Note: 2011 was 0.12°C cooler than 2010, according to Bloomberg.

China Reduces Carbon Intensity, Enforces Energy Efficiency

China’s energy intensity—or the rate of energy consumption relative to gross domestic product—dropped 19.1 percent from 2005 levels in the past year. In the past five years, China has seen an 11.2 percent increase in economic growth, but an annual energy consumption increase of just 6.6 percent. Between 2006 and 2010, China reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 1.5 billion tons. According to a press release from a research team from the Institute of Global Low-carbon Economy, University of International Business and Economics, and the Social Sciences Academic Press, this reduction in carbon emissions is largely due to strict and effective energy policies, including efforts to shut down inefficient power plants and increasing the energy efficiency of the heating supply network.
For additional information see: Shanghai Daily

Scientists Project Less Extreme Climate Change Scenario

A recent study by an international team of scientists lead by Andreas Schmittner of Oregon State University suggests that the impacts of climate change are not likely to be as extreme as previous studies project. Scientists predicted that a doubling of carbon dioxide (CO2) would cause a temperature rise of 1.7 degrees Celsius to 2.6 degrees Celsius. Using a computer model to formulate projections, researchers analyzed paleoclimate data that extends back 21,000 years, projecting that the temperature and sea level changes will not be as severe as the more pessimistic range of estimates presented by the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The authors of the study stressed that global warming is a serious issue and that there will be considerable climatic impacts as a result of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. In related news, a recent statement by a leading energy expert from the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggested that current global energy consumption levels could cause a temperature change of up to 6 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. According to the IEA’s analysis, current rates of fossil fuel consumption will lead to a two degree rise in temperature that will lead to irreversible changes to the earth’s climate systems, eventually causing a six degree Celsius rise in temperature.
For additional information see: Science Daily, BBC, Abstract

U.S. Experienced Record Amount of Weather Disasters in 2011

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recorded 12 separate U.S. weather disasters that each caused over $1 billion in damage in 2011. The list of extreme weather events include the drought in Texas, Hurricane Irene, and the flooding events in Mississippi. The weather disasters totaled over $52 billion in cumulative damages, with more than 1,000 casualties lost during the storms. “We have good reason to believe that what happened this year is not an anomaly, but instead is a harbinger of what is to come," NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco said in an interview. Not only are storms becoming more severe due to a warming climate, but there are more people living in areas in the U.S. that are prone to serious weather events. This list does not yet include damages for either Tropical Storm Lee or the Northeast snowstorm in October, but if the damages from either one of those storms climb over $1 billion, NOAA said they will be added to the list.
For additional information see: CBS News, Houston Chronicle, NPR, NOAA

Top Emitters Still Refusing to Reduce Carbon Consumption

At Durban, the European Union (EU) is urging a 2015 deadline to rework the Kyoto Protocol, and to update the Protocol to include the changing environmental impacts developing emerging countries. The Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012, leaving little time to create a new pact before it runs out, but the EU has stated that developing nations with substantial carbon emissions should still be held to emissions cuts. However, the world’s three largest emitters of CO2—China, the United States, and India—remain firm in their refusal to ratify an agreement to curb emissions. Chinese negotiators have stated that China is ready to consider emissions reductions, but have avoided specific obligations or plans. India claims that it is still behind China in economic development, and thus should not be held accountable for carbon cuts. Climate change mitigation in the United States has been inhibited by political wrangling over environmental legislation. Negotiators from the United States at Durban insisted that the United States will achieve its goal of reducing emissions by 17 percent from 2005 levels by the end of the decade, but no clear-cut plans have been made. Emissions from the United States, China, and India account for over half of global greenhouse gas emissions.
For additional information see: Reuters, EENews

Carbon Dioxide Emissions Spike After Financial Crisis

Worldwide carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions dropped in 2009 as a result of the global financial crisis (GFC), but emissions rebounded in 2010 according to a study supported by Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Total emissions increased from 8.6 billion tons in 2009 to 9.1 billion tons in 2010.* However, the study also showed that 2009 was the first year where consumption-based emissions were larger in developing countries than in developed countries. "Previously, developed countries released more carbon dioxide, but that's no longer true due to emerging economies in developing countries," said Tom Boden from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center." The GFC did not impact major developing countries, such as China and India, like it did the United States and the European nations." The study was published in Nature Climate Change.
For additional information see: Science Daily, New Scientist, Study Abstract
*Note: These numbers refer to the mass of carbon released in 2009 and 2010; the mass of CO2 released in each case is larger by a factor of 3.67 - 31.5 and 33.4 billion tons, respectively.
Global Carbon Emissions Rose Three Percent in 2011

According to a recent study by the Australian Global Carbon Project, global carbon emissions rose three percent in the past year, and six percent in 2010. This increase, equal to about half a billion tons of carbon, is largely due to rapid economic growth in several developing countries. Countries with the greatest increase in emissions include China, Brazil, and South Korea. In the United States, emissions rose 4.1 percent in the past year. On average, global emissions increased by 3.1 percent each year between 2000 and 2010. Global carbon emissions have now reached 10 billion tons, a situation that the authors note is likely to lead to a two degree Celsius rise in temperature that would cause irreversible climate change.
For additional information see: New York Times, Business Green, Science Daily

Himalayan Region at Risk

Recent research from the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) suggest that the Himalayan region is increasingly vulnerable to climate change, as rising temperatures are expected to affect precipitation patterns and the melting pattern of ice and snow on the peaks. This report, which makes use of mathematical models and data about glacier and lake levels, is the first study to account for the extent of glaciers and the patterns of snowfall in the Himalayan region. Climate change in the Himalayas would affect over 1.3 billion people who live downstream along river basins that depend on the water cycle of the mountain range. The threatened region is also home to a vibrant ecological network that includes 25,000 species of plants and animals.
For additional information see: Times of India, International Center for Integrated Mountain Development

New Climate Models Confirm Human Impact on Climate

New analysis from Swiss climate modelers reconfirms that humans are responsible for the pace and severity of climate change. Scientists used a model of the Earth’s energy budget and ran a mathematical model thousands of times using combinations of parameters that contribute to Earth’s energy and climate systems, including incoming shortwave solar radiation, solar energy that is reflected away from the earth, heat absorbed by oceans, and climate feedback mechanisms. Their results concluded that humans are responsible for at least 74 percent of temperature rise in the past 60 years. These results are remarkably similar to other climate model investigations and analyses of climate trends, suggesting that human emissions of greenhouse gases are the greatest contributor to the 0.5 degree Celsius temperature rise since 1950.
For additional information see: Nature, Abstract

New Historical Record of Antarctic May Influence Climate Models

The Arctic and Antarctic ice shelves may have melted simultaneously at the end of the last ice age, according to a new study published in Science. Until now, the size of the ice sheet in the Arctic was well known, but comparatively little was known about the long term changes in size of the southern ice sheet. "Our results suggest that Antarctica was not as climatically isolated as previously assumed," said Dr. Gerhard Kuhn. "Now we have to presume that the reaction of the large ice sheets in the Arctic and Antarctic to climate change is more closely linked in time than thought." Dr Weber, of the Geological Institute of the University of Cologne, specified that "forecasts of the future rise in the sea level caused by climate change will also have to be adjusted accordingly."
For additional information see: Science Daily, Science News, Study Abstract

United Nations Climate Talks Conclude in Durban

On December 11, the 194 countries comprising the United Nations Conference of Parties agreed on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action. The Durban Platform calls for a "protocol, or a legal instrument, or an agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention and applicable to all parties" by 2020, and will hold all major emitters, including the United States, China and India, to the same obligations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as other industrialized nations. The action plan calls for "an agreed outcome with legal force" involving all countries by 2015, and for the ratification and implementation of the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action by 2020. The COP17 meeting also concluded with the extension of the Kyoto Protocol until 2017. The 194 countries also agreed on the Green Climate Fund, a global account comprised of public and private funding that would raise $100 billion a year for aid to go to developing countries to use for climate change adaptation and conversion to clean energy technologies. 

Throughout the climate talks, delegates from developing nations and small island states sought a more stringent deal to hold the major emitter countries to tougher reductions. "I would have wanted to get more, but at least we have something to work with. All is not lost yet," said Selwin Hart, chief negotiator on finance for the coalition of small states. The delegates, along with representatives from leading environmental groups that attended the climate talks, say that the Durban Platform is not enough on its own to slow global climate change. But, overall, the delegates were satisfied that they were able to come to an agreement, "We came here with plan A, and we have concluded this meeting with plan A to save one planet for the future of our children and our grandchildren to come," said COP17 Chairman and South African Foreign Minister Maite Nkoana-Mashabane.
For additional information see: Politico, New York Times: Article 1, and Article 2, Reuters, The Guardian

South Sudan Speaks to United Nations about Effects of Climate Change

Alfred Lado Gore, the Minister of Environment for South Sudan, requested assistance for South Sudan during his country’s first appearance at the UN climate meeting. "Climate change in Southern Sudan has very, very serious negative effects. In terms of agriculture, this is really catastrophic," said Gore. South Sudan, the world’s newest country, is plagued by droughts and infrequent sudden heavy downpours. With thousands of refugees fleeing conflict with Sudan, South Sudan’s citizens are constantly searching for food and water. Gore continued, "People want to cultivate but no longer know when rains come. And when they come, sometimes they are even floods and they destroy the crops. . . .If the crops fail, people have no food. Food security now becomes a threat."
For additional information see: Associated French Press

Carbon Emissions Increase by Half Since 1990

Worldwide carbon emissions have risen by almost 50 percent over the last two decades, according to a study by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia in the United Kingdom. This 50 percent increase amounts to an annual average growth of 3.1 percent, despite the Kyoto Protocol’s goal to reduce emissions to below 1990 levels. Scientists leading the study are concerned, given that the year 2020 is considered the necessary peak for carbon emissions in order to limit global average temperature to the 2 degree increase—the amount thought necessary to avoid catastrophic and irreversible climate change. However, with the new climate deal forged in Durban, no new emissions reduction treaty would take effect until 2020. "That would be too late, unless strong actions are taken in the ­meantime," said Corinne Le Quéré, author of the paper.
For additional information see: Mail and Guardian, The Guardian, Science Daily, Study Abstract

California Approves Cap and Trade, Creates World’s Second Largest Carbon Market

A San Francisco judge has approved California’s cap-and-trade plans which will make it the largest carbon market in North America and the second largest in the world. The bill was passed in 2006 but has come under fire from opponents claiming that it will destroy jobs and harm the economy. However, in May the court approved the California Air Resources Board’s (CARB) authority to implement the program. According to the judge’s ruling last week, the state has adequately studied alternatives to its climate goal and the program is now slated for implementation in 2013. According to the Environmental Defense Fund, the state has received more than $9 billion in venture capital for clean energy technology since the bill was passed.
For additional information see: Forbes, San Francisco Gate, Bloomberg

New Methane Plumes Rising from Arctic Ocean Discovered

Warmer temperatures and decreased sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean are causing massive amounts of underwater methane to bubble to the surface, according to findings released at last week’s American Geophysical Union meeting. Methane is rising to the surface and into the atmosphere in large plumes or fountains, some as large as one kilometer in diameter. In a 10,000 square mile area off the northern coast of Siberia, Russian scientists discovered more than 100 methane plumes. The research team has been monitoring the region for nearly two decades and was shocked by the latest results. The destabilization of underwater methane is considered one of the most significant climate change tipping points that will accelerate the rate of warming, as methane is at least 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide over a one hundred year period.
For additional information see: The Independent

Study Shows that Methane Gas from ‘Fracking’ Damages the Climate

A soon to be released study by Cornell University concludes that using hydraulic fracturing to extract natural gas from shale releases as much greenhouse gas emissions as coal. Professor Robert Howarth states, “The [greenhouse gas] footprint for shale gas is greater than that for conventional gas or oil when viewed on any time horizon, but particularly so over 20 years. Compared to coal, the footprint of shale gas is at least 20% greater and perhaps more than twice as great on the 20-year horizon and is comparable when compared over 100 years.” The study also states, “The large GHG footprint of shale gas undercuts the logic of its use as a bridging fuel over coming decades, if the goal is to reduce global warming.”
For additional information see: The Hill, Report, Cornell University Press Release

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Chad A. Tolman
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Coalition for Climate Change Study and Action

CLIMATE CHANGE NEWS FOR NOVEMBER 2011

CC NEWS for NOV. 2011

In January of 2011 a nice paper by Robert J.Nichols et al. appeared in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A titled, Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a ‘beyond 4°C world’ in the twenty-first century. It says, “The range of future climate-induced sea-level rise remains highly uncertain with continued concern that large increases in the twenty-first century cannot be ruled out. The biggest source of uncertainty is the response of the large ice sheets of Greenland and West Antarctica. Based on our analysis, a pragmatic estimate of sea-level rise by 2100, for a temperature rise of 4°C or more over the same time frame, is between 0.5 m and 2 m …” This could result in the forced displacement of over 180 million people (2.4% of the global population). The most vulnerable countries are low-lying island nations, and poor countries in Africa and Asia. (Some low-lying coastal states in the U.S. - like DE, MD, FL and LA - are also at risk.) The rate of sea level rise is likely to increase as the temperature increases. A cost-benefit analysis of building dikes and beach replenishment vs. abandonment is suggested. At:
http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/161.full

In May the National Academy of Sciences issued the last of a series of four reports titled, America’s Climate Choices. There is an excellent 6.3-minute video describing the four studies, available at:
http://www.nasonline.org/news-and-multimedia/multimedia-gallery/nrc-americas-climate-choices.html.
The four studies are:
Advancing the Science of Climate Change


Limiting the Magnitude of Climate Change

Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change

Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change
All can be read or purchased online. They can also be searched by words or phrases. The third report, on adaptation to the climate changes that cannot be avoided, has a Chapter 3 (Pages 61-120) titled, What Are American’s Options for Adaptation?, which includes consideration of sea level rise and storm surges. Several possible strategies for coastal states and communities are listed in Table 3.8, starting on Page 117. (http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12783&page=117)

The August 1-8 issue of The Nation carried an article by John Nichols titled, ALEC Exposed. ALEC, the American Legislative Exchange Council, is a far right organization funded by the Koch Brothers and others determined to get legislation across the country to suit their extreme agenda. Their priorities for 2011 included bills to privatize education, break unions, deregulate major industries, and pass voter ID laws. The Nation has obtained more than 800 documents representing decades of model legislation. Other priorities are weakening environmental regulations and opposing attempts to limit climate change. You can learn more at: http://www.alecexposed.org/wiki/ALEC_Exposed. The article in The Nation is at:
http://www.thenation.com/article/161978/alec-exposed

On Nov. 3 CBCNews reported a story titled, CO2 Levels Soared in 2010. The increase of 512 million tons of carbon emissions in 2010 was the largest annual increase on record - 6% over 2009 - and was due largely to increased emissions by China and the U.S., the world’s largest emitters. Emissions are now higher than the highest scenarios considered in the 2007 Report of the IPCC. Granger Morgan, head of the engineering and public policy department at Carnegie Mellon University, said, "We are building up a horrible legacy for our children and grandchildren." At: http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2011/11/03/carbon-dioxide-atmosphere.html?cmp=rss

Yale Environment 360, a publication of the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, posted an article by Gernot Wagner on Nov. 14 titled, Making the Case for the Value of Environmental Rules. The introduction says, “Some U.S. politicians have been attacking environmental regulations, arguing that they hurt the economy and that the costs outweigh the benefits. But four decades of data refute that claim and show we need not choose between a clean environment and economic growth.” The article points out that four decades of data show that the Clean Air Act of 1970 has provided economic benefits 30 times as large as its costs. The article goes on to say, ‘“Green growth” isn’t just a catch phrase. It’s the only way to reconcile our relentless pursuit for material wealth on a finite planet with an atmosphere at the boiling point. The fact is that sound environmental regulations — whether they address dirty air or an overheating planet — can create jobs and be a boost, rather than a burden, for the economy.” At:
http://e360.yale.edu/feature/economy_and_the_environment_the_case_for_environmental_rules/2464/

The Analysis Group posted an article on Nov. 15 titled, New Analysis Quantifies Economic Impact of Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative in Ten States. Some of the key findings include:
• The regional economy gains more than $1.6 billion in economic value added.
• Customers save nearly $1.1 billion on electricity bills, and an additional $174 million on natural gas and heating oil bills, for a total of $1.3 billion in savings over the next decade through installation of energy efficiency measures using funding from RGGI auction proceeds to date.
• 16,000 jobs are created region wide.
At: http://www.analysisgroup.com/rggi.aspx

On Nov. 15 The Hill posted an article by Jonathan Easley titled, Iowa scientists urge candidates to accept climate change. A letter from 31 scientists from 22 Iowa colleges and universities was delivered to the governor, urging candidates in next year’s election to “acknowledge the science of climate change.” The article points out that most of the GOP candidates for president this year – with the exception of John Huntsman (currently polling about 1% of Republican voters) is the only one to acknowledge the scientific consensus on climate change. It’s a sad day for the Grand Old Party of Presidents Abraham Lincoln and Teddy Roosevelt. At: http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/gop-primaries/193713-iowa-scientists-urge-candidates-to-acknowledge-climate-change

A Nov. 17 article by Todd Griset in Offshore Wind Wired is titled, ANALYSIS: Debate Over Federal Tax Credits For Offshore Wind. It points out that two federal incentives for offshore wind power development, the Production Tax Credit (PTC) and the Investment Tax Credit (PTC), are both scheduled to expire in 2012, unless they are renewed by Congress. The on-again off-again nature of U.S. tax incentives is one of the reasons that investors choose to put their money into offshore wind projects into other countries, where this new, clean renewable energy source is rapidly growing – in spite of the fact that we have a huge renewable energy resource along our coasts and on the Great Lakes. We are being left behind environmentally and economically, once again. At: http://offshorewindwire.com/



The following items are from the Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI), Carol Werner, Executive Director. Past issues of its newsletter are posted on its website under "publications"
 at: http://www.eesi.org/publications/Newsletters/CCNews/ccnews.htm EESI’s newsletter is intended for all interested parties, particularly the policymaker community.

California Adopts Cap and Trade System

On October 20, the California Air Resources Board unanimously decided to adopt a state-administered cap and trade system to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This success marks the end of a court battle that delayed its development. The law, AB32, was originally signed by former governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2006, requiring California to reduce CO2 pollution to 1990 levels by 2020. By 2013, California’s largest carbon emitters will have to either adhere to carbon limits or buy carbon credits. A second compliance phase that will likely include around 85 percent of California’s carbon emissions sources will begin in 2015. About $10 billion in carbon allowances are expected to be traded by 2016, making California the second largest carbon market in the world following the European Union.
For additional information see: LA Times, NY Times

China Won’t Let Per Capita CO2 Emissions Reach U.S. Levels

China will not allow per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions levels to reach United States levels, according to a recent statement by vice chair of the National Development and Reform Commission, Xie Zhenhua. Though Chinese per capita CO2 emissions have been projected to reach U.S. levels by 2017, Xie stated that China would not “follow the path of the U.S.” China’s most recent five year plan includes a 17 percent decrease in CO2 per unit of economic growth. By 2020, China aims to increase energy efficiency to 40 to 45 percent from 2005 levels. In response to the idea of cutting emissions rather than restraining their development, Xie said that it could be possible to cut emissions after 2020, depending on the level of economic growth that has been achieved.
For additional information see: BBC

Scientists: Two Degree Increase Limit Unlikely Without Serious Emissions Reductions

A team of scientists recently concluded that, unless rapid changes are made in global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions levels, temperatures will rise more than two degrees Celsius above industrial levels. Scientists revised computer models to fit current data, and found that to avoid the two degree Celsius limit, annual CO2 emissions would need to fall to 44 gigatons per year by 2020, an 8.5 percent reduction. By 2050, a median of 20 gigatons annual emissions must be maintained in order to achieve climatic stability. This two degree target, deemed necessary by climate scientists to avoid the most detrimental effects of climate change, was set in the 2009 Copenhagen Accord. However, with current annual CO2 emissions at a median of at about 48 gigatons, reaching this goal is increasingly unlikely, according to reports by the United Nations.
For additional information see: Wired, Abstract

Scientists Study Self-Contained Melting on Greenland Ice Sheet

A new study suggests that the Greenland ice sheet undergoes intense melting even when temperatures do not reach extreme highs, because of positive feedbacks that cause more melting and are difficult to control. Data gathered from a microwave feedback satellites and output from an ice sheet model imply that there is a positive feedback system involving albedo that causes continued melt, independent of rising temperatures. Dark patches of ice warm and melt rapidly. A year following a particularly warm season can reveal more subsurface dark ice that will melt as soon as the temperatures begin to rise. North Atlantic Oscillation indexes, runoff and bare ice impact the melting system further, according to the authors of the study. The research was produced by the City College of New York.
For additional information see: Science Daily, Study

Mapping Study Analyzes Climate Change Threats

A recent survey ranked almost 200 nations for vulnerability to climate change in relation to population growth. The study included a map of the world that illustrates regional assessments of population and projected climate impacts. Cities with rapid population growth in Africa and Asia—such as Dhaka, Manila, Kinshasa, Kolkata, Jakarta, Delhi, and Guangzhou—tend to top the list. Socioeconomic factors and problems, such as corruption and poverty, worsen the issues posed by rapidly rising population and climate change. The objective of the project was to define potential risks for cities, economic zones, and investors. The study was part of the fourth Climate Change and Environmental Risk Analysis by the risk analysis firm Maplecroft.
For additional information see: Reuters, Study

Department of Energy Calculates an Unprecedented Rise in Global CO2 Emissions

Global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are rising faster than the worst case scenarios projected only four years ago. The 2007 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) correlated the rate of greenhouse gas pollution to the rate of warming, stating that temperatures will rise between 4 and 11 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. However, world CO2 emissions in 2010 exceeded 2009 emissions by about 564 million tons, a 6 percent increase. This exceeds the pollution output used by the IPCC in climate models. The United States and China were accountable for about half of the global CO2 emissions increase. The study was conducted by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, a part of the U.S. Department of Energy.
For additional information see: Washington Post, Environmental News Online

Study: Policymakers Need to Plan for Increased Climate Change-Induced Migration

A new University of Florida study found that as average global temperatures increase, even by a few degrees, human migrations are expected to increase as well, and governments must plan accordingly. When temperatures rise, weather patterns change and the severity and frequency of storms and natural disasters increase. Governments will need to prepare for the mass movement of people displaced by these disasters – something which is frequently mishandled when the complexities involved are underestimated. "Transplanting a population and its culture from one location to another is a complex process -- as complicated as brain surgery," lead author Anthony Oliver-Smith said. A simple cost-benefit analysis would show that the long-term costs of failed resettlements—including disease, malnutrition, and destroyed family and social networks—will waste more resources than if the resettlement is properly planned from the start. The study was published in the October 28 edition of Science.
For additional information see: Science Daily, Study Abstract

Climate Change Exacerbates Wildfires, Threatens Peatlands

A new study suggests that the drying of northern wetlands has caused more severe peatland wildfires. Wetlands are usually resistant to wildfires, but as they drain and the water table is lowered, the dry carbon mass is susceptible to fire. The fires have caused a nine-fold increase in the amount of carbon that has been released into the atmosphere. This is equal to about 450 years of peat accumulation. Peatlands are important to the global carbon cycle. A large peatland fire in Indonesia in the late 1990s caused a carbon release that totalled 40 percent of annual carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels.The study was published in the journal Nature Communications.
For additional information see: Science Daily, Abstract

Sea Level Rise Threatens Washington DC

According to a recent analysis of several different modeled scenarios for climate change, rising sea levels will swamp Washington DC by 2150. Depending on the amount of greenhouse gases that are emitted in the future, the temperature could rise enough to cause a sea level rise anywhere between four inches by 2043, to 16 feet by 2150. Researchers used geographic information systems to model and illustrate the outcome of sea level rise on the city and its underlying infrastructure. Low-end projections of sea level rise yield estimates of property damage around $2 billion. A sea level rise of 5 meters could result in $24.6 billion of property damage in Washington DC. This study was published in the journal Risk Analysis.
For additional information see: USA Today, Abstract

UN Report Confirms Link Between Extreme Weather and Climate Change

According to a recent draft of a U.N. report, climate change is causing more frequent and severe weather events, such as heat waves, wildfires, and floods. The report connects rising atmospheric temperatures, rising sea levels, and warmer ocean surface temperatures to recent extreme weather events. According to the report, peak temperatures are likely to increase up to 3 degrees Celsius by 2050. These changes in ocean conditions will cause more destructive cyclones. Melting glaciers, melting permafrost, and increased precipitation will cause more landslides. The document is the result of an intensive review of reports and data, and includes a 20 page summary for policymakers. The draft will be reviewed by hundreds of scientists working under the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) later in November.
For additional information see: AFP

Georgetown Climate Center Introduces Online Forum to Share Climate Change Tools

The Georgetown Climate Center recently launched the Adaptation Clearinghouse, an online tool to find and share resources and information that pertain to climate change policy issues and adaptation measures. This new online community will serve as a database of new research about climate change adaptation, as well as a forum to spread newly developed models and techniques. Some of the recent resources shared in the online community include a comprehensive model that explores sea level rise and coastal land use, and an adaptation plan for the city of Chula Vista that weighs the potential infrastructural impacts of climate change on the city. The Georgetown Climate Center is a nonpartisan group that aims to connect policymakers and share best practices and resources concerning climate change.
For additional information see: Georgetown Climate Center

Australian Senate Passes Carbon Tax

Australia’s parliament passed the most comprehensive carbon pricing scheme outside of the European Union (EU) on November 7. The law will put a tax of $23 (around $23.78 U.S. dollars) on each ton of carbon emitted by the top 500 polluters from July 2012 until July 2015, after which it will become a carbon trading emission scheme. Even though Australia only accounts for 1.5 percent of the world’s emissions, they have the highest per capita emissions intensity of any country because coal generates 80 percent of the country’s electricity. The government expects the tax will incentivize a multibillion dollar investment in cleaner fuels and will move their energy economy away from coal. The law also provides compensation for export-exposed industries, such as aluminum, zinc and steel, and provides personal tax cuts for workers (totaling up to $300 per year on average). In addition, the export-exposed industries will receive 94.5 percent of their carbon permits for free for the first three years. Once the scheme moves to a tradable permit system, it will be integrated with EU’s trading scheme.
For additional information see: The Guardian, Reuters

Three Hundred Square Mile Iceberg to Detach from Antarctica

After initially spotting an 18 mile long crack in the ice on Pine Island Glacier in Antarctica, NASA scientists concluded that a 300 square-mile iceberg will break off in the next few months. The newly formed iceberg is likely Antarctica’s largest contribution to global sea level rise so far. Warmer water has melted the deeper portions of the ice shelf that would otherwise have kept the ice mass grounded, leaving the mass of ice unstable. Scientists studying the ice shelf are unsure whether the ice will recover its size, or continue to become thinner and weaker, continually contributing to sea level rise.
For additional information see: Washington Post, Christian Science Monitor, NASA

Report: Climate Change Consequences Both Dire and Likely

According to a recent report by the International Energy Agency, irreversible climate change consequences are unavoidable if dramatic changes are not made within the next five years. If current pledges to reduce emissions are successful, the temperature average is projected to rise 3.5 degrees Celsius, says the report, which is still considerably higher than the two degree rise in temperature considered safe by scientists. The authors of the World Energy Outlook report said they are not optimistic that these planned measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will even be successful, and a failure to meet emissions reduction goals could result in a temperature rise of at least six degrees Celsius. Some factors that are expected to aggravate emissions problems include reluctance to continue using nuclear energy following the Fukushima disaster, unwillingness to abandon current industry and infrastructure, and growing numbers of fossil fuel-dependent power plants and inefficient buildings.
For additional information see: Washington Post, Business Green

Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative Benefits Participating Northeastern States

According to a new report by the National Association of Regulatory Utilities Commissioners (NARUC), the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) has raised over $1.6 billion for the ten participating states since the program began in 2008. RGGI requires the largest producers of power to buy allowances for emitted carbon dioxide (CO2). The states spent a large part of the money raised on energy efficient programs, saving regional customers $1.1 billion in electricity bills, and over $174 million on natural gas and heating bills over the past three years. RGGI programs created 16,000 jobs throughout the region, and the region’s payments for out-of-state fossil fuels decreased by over $765 million. Participating states are Conneticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, New Jersey, Rhose Island, and Vermont.
For additional information see: Reuters, Baltimore Sun, Report

New Report Urges Transparency in Government Climate Change Research

A new report from the Defense Science Board recommended that the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) should be more transparent in its monitoring of climate change. The report, titled Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security, criticizes the classified nature of the CIA’s climate center data, stating that compartmentalizing research and keeping data classified will only deter progress. The report highlights the impacts of climate change, stressing the need for mitigation and adaptation strategies. Suggestions for further climate change research and preparation included compiling a comprehensive set of data about climate change, action by the Department of Defense to prepare foreign militaries to deal with climate issues, and analyzing regions in which climate change and water supply could cause economic and government instability.
For additional information see: Guardian, Report

EU Passes New Resolution on Greenhouse Gas Reduction

On November 16, a resolution for the European Union (EU) to bolster plans to cut greenhouse gas emissions passed with 532 members of the European Parliament in favor, 76 opposed, and 43 abstaining. The goal set by the EU would decrease emissions by 20 to 30 percent by 2020, a target that was noted in the resolution to have the potential to create green jobs and economic growth. EU ministers also committed to a new phase of the Kyoto Protocol, under the condition that countries with larger carbon footprints join as well. The resolution also encouraged all nations to work towards cutting emissions enough to avoid exceeding a global average temperature rise of two degrees Celsius.
For additional information see: Reuters


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Thanks,
Chad A. Tolman
chadtolman@verizon.net
Coalition for Climate Change Study and Action