Wednesday, June 13, 2012

CLIMATE CHANGE NEWS FOR JUNE 2012


CC NEWS FOR JUNE 2012
The May 14 issue of Chemical & Engineering News has an article by Jeff Johnson titled, Paying for Power Plant Shutdowns.  It describes a General Accounting Office (GAO) report that looked at the decommissioning costs of shutting down 12 nuclear reactors that are reaching the end of their useful lives.  For many of them, the money set aside for decomissioning is inadequate by up to 50% for a number of reasons: an outdated funding formula used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, greater than expected radiological contamination, and poor decisions by owners on where to invest funds set aside for cleanup.  Company decommissioning costs are estimated to be about $400 million to $800 million per reactor.  
Smartplanet for May 18 has an article by Mark Halper titled, Safe Nuclear: UK Eyes Thorium.  For those of you unfamiliar with thorium as a nuclear fuel, the article says it has several advantages over uranium:
  • The waste cannot be used to make weapons.
  • The waste is radioactive for only a few hundred years - instead of tens of thousands.
  • With some reactor designs (e.g., molten salt) it can give higher energy conversion efficiencies.
The Guardian for May 20 has an article by Suzanne Goldenburg titled, Heartland Institute facing uncertain future as staff depart and cash dries up.  The Heartland Institute (HI) - supposedly an organization devoted to giving the public balanced information about climate change - showed its hand when it posted billboard ads comparing those who accept climate change science with Ted Kaczynski, the terrorist Unibomber.  Since then HI staff and financial supporters have been leaving like they are jumping off a sinking ship.  At: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/may/20/heartland-institute-future-staff-cash
ThinkProgress has a May 21 post by Joe Romm titled, Climate Science Disinformers are Nothing like Holocaust Deniers.  In it, Romm explains why he prefers the term ‘disinformers’ rather than ‘deniers’ or ‘skeptics’ for people who not only deny climate science but actively promote disinformation on the subject of climate change.  His Climate Progress blog covers climate science, solutions and politics, and has been called "the indispensable blog" by columnist Tom Friedman.  You can subscribe for automatic email delivery.  At: http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/05/21/485848/climate-science-disinformers-are-nothing-like-holocaust-deniers/
Yereth Rosen of Reuters posted an article on May 21 titled, Study finds permafrost thaw, glacier melt releasing methane.  He reports on a study published online by Nature Geosience - the first to document widespread release of methane from the Arctic as permafrost melts and glacial ice recedes.  The emission rate of this potent greenhouse gas has not yet been measured, but it it gets to be large enough, it could contribute to a positive feedback loop in which the rate of ice loss increases as the amount of ice loss increases.  Not good for the home team.  At: 
The Earth Policy Institute issued a Plan B Update on May 22 by J. Matthew Roney titled, Fukushima Meltdown Hastens Decline of Nuclear Power.  It pointed out that Japan has closed its one remaining operational nuclear power plant, and that opposition to nuclear power, which grew out of the aftermath of the tsunami and meltdown last year, has made it politically impossible to restart any of the 50+ operational plants in Japan.  Within days of the Japanese disaster, Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that Germany’s seven oldest reactors would shut down immediately. In May 2011, her government declared that Germany would phase out nuclear entirely by 2022.  Enthusiasm for nuclear power has waned in many other countries, caused in part by construction delays and increases in capital costs.  At: 
A May 24 Reuters article by Michel Rose,titled Global CO2 Emissions Hit Record in 2011 Led by China: IEA, reported that global CO2 emissions rose by 3.2% above what they were in 2010 - to 31.6 billion metric tons - led by China, which increased its emissions by 9.4%.  The article said that the global average temperature was on track to increase by 6 deg C by 2050.  At: 
The Yale Forum on Climate Change and the Media has a May 24 article by Sara Peach titled, Armed With Maps and Photos, Local Planners Talk Sea Level Rise.  She concludes that though many people are turned off by talk of climate change, they are willing to accept local impacts on their own lives and to want to plan for impacts before they get really bad.  At: http://www.yaleclimatemediaforum.org/2012/05/local-planners-talk-sea-level-rise/#more-11915
Janet Raloff has an article in the May 25 issue of ScienceNews titled, Rising CO2 promotes weedy rice.  Studies in which rice was grown under various concentrations of CO2 have shown that higher concentrations like those we can expect in decades to come promote the development of a less valuable weedy variant with reduced nutritional value.
Delmarvanow.com has a May 26 article titled, VA SHORE: Area's sea-level rise has fastest rate on the East Coast.  Virginia’s Eastern Shore has seen a sea level rise (SLR) of about 18 inches during the past century, but it is expected to accelerate.  The rate is higher that Delaware’s (13 inches this past century), presumably because of more rapidly sinking land.  The Eastern Shore Climate Adaptation Working Group - consisting of representatives of local government staff, state and federal agencies, and private groups involved in coastal management - hosted a Coastal Flooding Workshop in Onley,VA on June 13 as part of its efforts to assist the Eastern Shore in preparing for a changing climate, including SLR.  At: 
Mark Hertsgaard has a May 27 article in Al Jazeera titled, The biggest climate victory you never heard of.  The victory is the successful effort of a coalition of concerned citizens - environmentalists, clean energy advocates, public health professionals, community organizers, faith leaders, farmers, attorneys, students and volunteers - working at the state and local levels, to prevent the construction of 166 proposed new coal-fired power plants.  Leadership for the effort came from the Sierra Club’s Beyond Coal campaign.  The victory shows that large powerful companies can be successfully opposed by the grass roots.  At: 
The NY TImes for May 29 has an article by Eric Lipton titled, Even in Coal Country, the Fight for an Industry.  Stricter environmental rules on emissions, the decreasing cost of natural gas, and the opposition of environmental groups in this country are causing coal plants to switch to gas or shut down, putting people out of work who have mined coal for generations.  Some of the coal companies that are losing business here are hoping to stay in business by shipping their coal overseas.  At:
The Washington Post for May 29 has a post by Brad Plumer titled, Why regulating gas fracking could be cheaper than the alternatives.  It indicates that proper regulation of fracking to avoid water and air pollution might increase the cost of the natural gas about 7%, while proceeding without those environmental safeguards might turn people so strongly against fracking that the industry could lose its license to operate - and lost a lot of money in the process.  At: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/why-fracking-regulations-could-be-cheaper-than-no-regulations-at-all/2012/05/29/gJQAfcUKzU_blog.html
The Worldwatch Institute has issued a very informative report titled, China Leads Growth in Global Wind Power Capacity.  The world now has approximately four times the installed wind capacity that it did in 2005, reflecting the combined effects of falling prices, improved technology, global investment, and various incentive programs. In 2011 global installed wind power capacity grew 21%; China led the way with 43% of the growth in capacity, followed by the United States at 17% percent, India with 7%, and Germany with 5%.  Although the U.S. generated 27% percent more electricity from wind in 2011 than in 2010, wind still accounts for less than 3% of total U.S. power generation. Much of the rapid U.S. growth can be attributed to the federal Production Tax Credit (PTC), which reduces corporate income tax by 2.2 cents for every kilowatt-hour produced. But the PTC is scheduled to expire at the end of this year, and may not be renewed by Congress.  This report and others on carbon capture and storage and CO2 emissions can be found in the 2012 Vital Signs online.  At: 
NOTE: Even though the U.S has a huge renewable energy resource in offshore wind near its heavily populated East Coast, I learned at an international conference on offshore wind energy last year the the lack of a coherent U.S. energy policy and the on-again off-again nature of the federal PTC has spooked investors away from U.S. offshore wind - although it is growing rapidly with their help in other parts of the world.
Brian Merchant, in the May 28 issue of treehugger, has a great article titled, Last Weekend, Half of Germany Was Running on Solar Power.  That’s right, a week ago, on Friday and Saturday, in the early afternoon hours, German solar panels produced a record breaking 22 GW of solar power, providing nearly 50% of Germany’s electric power demand.  The reason for this success - in spite of the fact that Germany is not the sunniest place in the world - is that has had a system of feed-in tariffs (FITs).  At:
The Gazette of Cedar Rapids (Iowa) had an Op-Ed On June 3 by the Rev. Susan Guy, the Exec. Director of Iowa Interfaith Power and Light, a chapter of a national interfaith organization dealing with energy and climate change.  She addresses the issues of justice and fairness that are being raised, “as those who are least able to adapt to climate change and who contribute least to the problem are likely to suffer the worst consequences.”  At: http://thegazette.com/2012/06/03/use-earths-resources-responsibly/ 
I believe that communities of faith can bring a unique and powerful voice to the most important issues of our time.
On June 4 Mireya Navarro of the NY Times, in an article titled, Emissions Fell Under Cap and Trade Program, Report Says, reported that CO2 emissions from the nine RGGI (Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative) states in the northeastern U.S. fell by an average of 23% during the first three years of the program - in part because of the conversion of some of the coal-fired power plants in the region to natural gas, which produces about half as much CO2 per MWh of electrical energy as coal.  At: 


The following items are from the Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI), Carol Werner, Executive Director. Past issues of its newsletter are posted on its website under "publications"
 at http://www.eesi.org/publications/Newsletters/CCNews/ccnews.htm 
EESI’s newsletter is intended for all interested parties, particularly the policymaker community. 

California Deciding How to Spend Cap and Trade Revenues
California will auction off its first carbon emissions permits in November, but has not yet determined how to allocate the revenue. The California Air Resources Board (ARB) has ordered that the money raised, an estimated $1.8 billion in the first year of allowance auctions, be spent to benefit utility customers by reducing the burden of rate increases generated through the trading scheme. California Public Utilities Commission (PUC) analyst Jordan Parrillo believes consumer rates should increase because, “That's part of the intent of cap and trade - it's to embed a carbon price signal throughout the economy, and that includes electricity rates.” The PUC, which must implement the ARB order, proposed returning 90 percent of revenues to customers as rebates, while using the remainder for energy efficiency upgrades to buildings. Other proposals include establishing a "green bank" for alternative-energy projects, funding California’s high-speed-rail project, and reducing gaps in California’s budget. Utility companies want to use the revenues to directly offset the price increases.
For additional information see: San Francisco Chronicle


Companies Partnered with WWF Cut Carbon Emissions
More than 30 companies, including Coca Cola, Nike, IBM, and Nokia, have saved more than 100 million metric tons of CO2 emission equivalents (CO2-eq) between 1999 and 2011 in partnership with the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) Climate Savers Program.  According to a report by sustainable energy consulting firm Ecofys, WWF helped companies set “best in class” emissions targets and gave advice on strategies to reduce carbon footprints and address climate change, allowing the companies to save 27 million metric tons of CO2-eq in 2011 alone. WWF Senior Partnerships Manager Alexander Quarles van Ufford said, “Resource efficiency and the goal of a low-carbon economy have to become part of the corporate DNA, particularly given high fuel and commodity prices,” and also stressed the need for government policies to further reduce emissions.
For additional information see: Bloomberg, Report


Climate Change Damages on Pace to Exceed Economic Growth
A new report from the United Kingdom-based Climate and Development Knowledge Network cautioned that in many low and middle income nations, "Economic exposure to disasters is increasing faster than per capita gross domestic product (GDP), and the impacts of climate change on the severity and frequency of hazards will accentuate existing trends in disaster losses in the future."  Rapid urbanization in coastal areas, loss of mangroves and other natural buffers and lack of planning and legislation are increasing vulnerability to natural disasters in Latin America and South Asia. The report advocates national planning to reduce disaster risks, such as enforcing building codes, and limiting development on flood plains, low-lying coastlines and other risky areas.  Economic risk can be decreased by allocating money for disaster relief or purchasing insurance. Businesses and cities must also be proactive in planning disaster mitigation strategies, urged report co-author Tom Mitchell.
For additional information see: AlertNet, Report


China Plans Pilot Emissions Trading Schemes
China, the largest global emitter of carbon dioxide, plans to start seven pilot carbon emissions trading programs in 2013.  The programs will be in the cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Shenzhen and Chongqing, as well as Guangdong and Hubei provinces. Based on the results of the pilots, a national scheme is expected after 2015.  A Stockholm Environment Institute study called the fate of the pilots “one of the most important questions of environmental policy of our time.”  The programs have the potential to revitalize the clean energy industry and the fight against global warming, but failure would set back the establishment of a global trading scheme.  “If the Chinese end up with a national scheme that is compatible with the EU’s emissions trading system, it’s game over for the rest of the world. Everyone will have to do it, including the U.S.,” said Tim Yeo, Chair of the United Kingdom Parliament’s Energy and Climate Change Select Committee.
For additional information see: Financial Times, Report

Statisticians Use Climate Models to Predict North American Warming
Statisticians at Ohio State University analyzed two climate models to produce estimated temperature changes in North America between 2041 and 2070.  The researchers say their analysis overcomes the criticisms that different climate models produce different results by combining them into a “consensus model” that also quantifies certainties.  “We show that there are shared conclusions upon which scientists can agree with some certainty, and we are able to statistically quantify that certainty,” said Noel Cressie, an author of the report published in the International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation. The analysis predicts that the Canadian Northeast will experience the highest increase in winter temperatures, about six degrees Celsius, the Great Lakes will have 2.8 degrees Celsius warming, and the Rocky Mountain region will have more warming (3.5 degrees Celsius) in summers than in winter (2.3 degrees Celsius). The analysis can be expanded to include additional climate models.
For additional information see: LiveScience, PhysOrg, Web Project (Ohio State University)

Some Mammals Unable to Keep Up with Climate Change
A new report published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, suggests that nine percent of Western Hemisphere mammalian species will be unable to migrate fast enough to remain in suitable habitats as climate changes.  Researchers said that tropical species are most at risk, and estimate that in some areas, such as the Amazon, 30 to 50 percent of species cannot migrate quickly enough to keep up with climate change, and that primates will experience an average 75 percent decrease in range. According to co-author Joshua Lawler, the model is very conservative, making optimistic assumptions about animals always migrating in the best direction as fast as possible and about impacts of human obstacles to migration, such as highways and developments. "Conservation planners could help some species keep pace with climate change by focusing on connectivity — on linking together areas that could serve as pathways to new territories, particularly where animals will encounter human-land development," said lead author Carrie Schloss.
For additional information see: Discovery News, Science News, PhysOrg, Gaurdian


North Carolina Group Pushes Development Over Sea Level Rise
A state-appointed science panel in North Carolina reported that a 1-meter rise in sea levels is likely by 2100 and the state should prepare for the increase.  A group called NC-20, attacked the report saying it is flawed and will hamper development.  NC-20 Chairman Tom Thompson, economic development director in Beaufort County, said his members – many of them county managers and other economic development officials – are convinced that climate changes and sea-level rises are part of natural cycles. When the state legislature met this month, Republicans circulated a measure that would authorize the coastal commission to calculate only how fast the sea is rising based on historic trends, not on predicted increases from climate change. “We’re throwing this science out completely, and what’s proposed is just crazy for a state that used to be a leader in marine science . . . You can’t legislate the ocean, and you can’t legislate storms.” said East Carolina University geologist Stan Riggs. State planners say it is critical to allow for rising water when designing bridges, roads, and sewer lines that will be in use for decades.
For additional information see: Charlotte Observer


Future of Carbon Capture and Storage Is Uncertain
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) could be an important piece in limiting greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) but the technology has been hampered by high costs.  CCS technologies capture carbon dioxide, usually from fossil fuel power plants or industrial facilities, and store it in permanent underground geological reservoirs, preventing its release to the atmosphere.   CCS development has largely stalled with only eight large-scale projects in operation in the past three years.  The lack of growth is tied to the world economic crisis, which has made funding tighter, and the failure of governments to achieve a global climate treaty to take the place of the expiring Kyoto Protocol.   "I'd say the biggest problem we have right now is that there is not a market for CCS because there is no climate policy," said Howard Herzog, a CCS expert at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). "This technology can effectively help lower CO2 emissions in the atmosphere, but that will always cost more than letting business as usual go on. So as long as there is no policy to stop business as usual, it will go on."  The International Energy Agency predicts that in 25 years, 75 percent of energy needs will still come from fossil fuels, and that it will take an estimated $5 trillion investment for CCS to cut GHG emissions in half by 2050.
For additional information see: National Geographic


Ground Water Extraction Explains Sea Level Mystery
Water extracted from underground aquifers, rivers and lakes, but not replenished, is responsible for 0.03 inches per year of global sea level rise, according to a study in the journal Nature Geoscience.  Annual sea level rise has averaged 0.07 inches per year from 1961 thru 2003. The International Panel on Climate Change found 0.04 inches per year of sea level rise is caused by thermal expansion of sea water and meltwater from glaciers and icecaps, which left the remainder unaccounted for.  “When people pump groundwater, they may think it’s only having local effects. But there are huge implications. If we think about the future, what will happen if we use groundwater in the same way as we are doing today? That’s a question we have to consider if we don’t think of some kind of proper management of water resources,” said lead author Yadu Pokhrel.  Depletion of groundwater reserves has more than doubled in recent decades as a result of population growth and the increased demand on groundwater reservoirs for drinking water and agriculture. Most of the water pumped up from ground water, especially ancient reservoirs, is not replenished; it evaporates into the air or flows into river channels, feeding into the seas.
For additional information see: Nature, Scientific American, Guardian


Corporations Contradict Climate Pledges
A number of major US corporations who publicly support climate change science are more likely to donate to campaigns that oppose caps on carbon dioxide than to those supporting emission curbs, according to a study by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS).  UCS evaluated the role of 28 companies listed on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index which weighed in on two efforts to address climate change:  the EPA's finding that greenhouse gases endanger public health and the 2010 ballot initiative in California to suspend the state's own climate law. According to the report, companies acted or made statements in support of climate science and policy in public spaces while simultaneously hindering science-based policy in others. The research suggests that such companies are more likely to express concern about climate change in venues directed at the general public and more likely to undermine climate science in communications directed at the federal government and through their funding of outside organizations.  Chesapeake Energy, Tesoro, Murphy Oil, Occidental Petroleum, Valero Energy, and Peabody Energy were consistently opposed to dealing with climate change but publicly favored climate action.  “While all the companies publicly expressed concern about climate change, many misrepresented climate science or sought to undermine climate policy efforts in other venues,” according to the report.  The report cites several companies, including Nike and nuclear power giant NRG, as being consistent in both message and actions in support of climate action.  UCS notes their findings are limited by the lack of transparency in the business world and the small sample size.
For additional information see: New York Times, Mother Jones, Report


New Computer to Improve Climate Change Modeling
A new super computer capable of 1.5 quadrillion calculations per second will better model climate change and forecast extreme weather at the local level.  The computer, called Yellowstone, will provide scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado with improved data for understanding and predicting the effects of climate change on a regional, rather than continental scale. Marika Holland, chief scientist for NCAR’s Community Earth System Modeling Project, said the new supercomputer is “close to a game-changer. We’ve had incremental improvements in our computational resources over time, but . . . Yellowstone is a whole new scale, and there are things that we will be able to explore that just were not possible before.” Due to limited computing power, climate research has been more difficult at the local scale and scientists rely on larger scale models, which require less power, but are less detailed. The $30 million computer will be able to generate climate projections for seven-square-mile units, instead of the 60-square-mile units typically in use now.
For additional information see: Washington Post


Using Gas Instead of Coal Will Not Help Climate, Says Investor
A study by Scottish Widows Investment Partnership says using shale gas instead of coal does not help the climate because shale gas companies do not use simple technologies to fix methane leaks.  The study claimed that, leaking gas, known as fugitive emissions, from shale gas now contributes about 20 percent of the short-term warming impact of the US's total greenhouse gas output, and this amount is rising. Natural gas has overtaken agriculture as the US's biggest source of methane.  The fugitive emissions could be captured using “green completion technologies” and sold, providing a return on the cost of green completion.  Shale gas produces less carbon than coal when burned, which the gas industry claims will help reduce climate change.  According to the study, fugitive methane is wiping out any carbon saving from switching from coal to gas, and will continue to do so for 20 to 30 years unless the problem is addressed.  Methane is 20 times more potent than carbon as a greenhouse gas and is the main component of shale gas.
For additional information see: Guardian


Northeast U.S. Power Plants Reduce Carbon Emissions
The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), the cap-and-trade program among 10 Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states, announced a 23 percent reduction in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the states’ power plants over the past three years. The findings were presented in RGGI’s Compliance Summary Report for 2009-2011, the program’s first three-year control period. The report found that 206 of the 211 power plants in the 10 states met their compliance requirements. In total, the power plants emitted an average of 126 million tons of CO2 annually over the three-year period, a 23 percent drop from the previous three years and 33 percent below the emissions cap for the period. Electricity consumption in the region declined by less than three percent. The report cites several reasons for the emissions reductions, including increased use of natural gas and renewable energy for power generation, state investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies, and climate patterns. The second RGGI three-year control period is underway.

In related news, environmental groups have filed suit against New Jersey for its decision to withdraw from RGGI. Governor Chris Christie announced the state’s departure last year, calling the program an ineffective method to reduce emissions. The state and its 40 power plants are not participating in the second three-year control period. The suit, brought by the Natural Resources Defense Council and Environment New Jersey, was filed on June 6 in New Jersey’s Superior Court in Trenton. The suit states that the decision to leave RGGI violated state law by failing to properly notify the public or provide a suitable comment period. Christie spokesman Michael Drewniak dismissed claims of illegality, stating, “Participation in the RGGI consortium was via a contractual arrangement with provisions for any state to pull out with notice and without penalty.” The state legislature has twice voted to maintain the state’s participation in RGGI. Gov. Christie vetoed the first measure and will likely do so again.
For additional information see: New York Times, Press Release, Reuters


Climate Change to Reduce Generation Capacity of Power Plants
Nuclear and fossil fuel-fired power plants will likely become less reliable as climate change becomes more severe, according to a new study in the journal Nature Climate Change. Climate change already has resulted in warmer water temperatures and decreased river flow, a trend that is very likely to continue. Thermoelectric plants — nuclear, coal, and most natural gas-fired power plants — rely on nearby water supplies to cool the steam generated by the plants. Warmer and/or reduced water supplies can inhibit power plants from properly cooling, forcing them to reduce production or temporarily shut down. Such disruptions have become increasingly frequent. The study concludes that reductions in water supply will decrease the overall generation capacity of thermoelectric power plants by 6-19 percent in Europe and 4-16 percent in the United States between 2031-2060. Such a loss of capacity would force additional investment in generation capacity, significantly raise electricity rates, and decrease power reliability. The study projects the largest U.S. disruptions will be located at inland power plants in the Southeast, which rely on especially vulnerable rivers.


UN Report: Growing Refugee Crisis Exacerbated by Climate Change
The United Nations (UN) released its “State of the World’s Refugees” report on May 31. Covering the period 2006-2011, the report found that approximately 26 million refugees are currently displaced within their own countries, and an additional 15-16 million people are refugees in a foreign country. The combined figure represents a 16-year high. The U.N. predicts that the number of refugees will rise over the next 10 years due to climate change, conflict, population growth, and water and food shortages. The report explains that climate change will drive conflict as resources become more scarce, increasing internal displacement and refugees. In the preface to the report, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon writes that the refugee crisis is compounded by “the relentless advance of climate change,” and that, “growing numbers of people are being uprooted by natural disasters.” UN High Commissioner for Refugees Antonio Guterres explained that those forced to relocate because of climate change have no legal protection, which has lead to an ongoing international debate on how to best handle the matter.
For additional information see: Washington Post


UN Says Global Growth and Consumption Are Accelerating Climate Change
On June 6 the United Nations (UN) Environment Program published the Global Environment Outlook report, stating that global population growth, urbanization, and consumption of natural resources are negatively affecting the world’s climate. The report says that only four of the 90 environmental goals set by the UN in 2007 have made progress; and furthermore, scientists have found that 20 percent of vertebrate species are under the threat of extinction, and 90 percent of water and fish samples from rivers and oceans are contaminated by pesticides. The report states, “As human pressures on the earth . . . accelerate, several critical global, regional and local thresholds are close or have been exceeded. Once these have been passed, abrupt and possibly irreversible changes to the life-support functions of the planet are likely to occur, with significant adverse implications for human well-being.”
For additional information see: Reuters, Washington Post, BBC News


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Thanks,
Chad A. Tolman
chadtolman@verizon.net
Coalition for Climate Change Study and Action

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Tuesday, May 22, 2012

CLIMATE CHANGE NEWS FOR MAY 2012


CC NEWS FOR MAY 2012
The U.S. Global Change Researh Program (USGCRP) has a great website with lots of information about hurricanes and climate change, last updated in Sept. 2008.  The intensity and destructiveness of hurricanes has been increasing since about 1970, along with increasing sea surface temperatures.  At:
In 2010 the NAACP issued a Climate Justice Initiative Toolkit, which points out that our current energy system,, based primarily on the burning of fossil fuels, and the climate change it produces, disproportionately affect people of color - especially the poor who are least responsible for carbon emissions.  It’s a matter of social justice.  At: 
A post in National Geographic on May 2 by Bill Chameides of Duke University was titled, The Heat Goes On: CO2 Reaches Another High-Water Mark.  It points out the the atmospheric concentration of CO2 on Mona Loa in Hawaii reached 394.45 ppm in March - the highest level ever recorded there.  The highest concentration this year, expected in May, may exceed 395 ppm.  As only Britain and Mexico have legally binding commitments to reduce carbon emissions, it appears very unlikely that humanity will be able to keep CO2 from reaching 450 ppm.  That concentration would eventually give global mean temperatures of 2-4℃, depending on the sensitivity of the climate to a doubling of CO2 concentration.
On May 3 the PBS Newshour announced that their web Science Section has a 15-question quiz about climate change by Rebecca Jacobson titled, Are You Smarter Than a 10th Grader on Climate Change?  The questions are taken from the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication.  On the same page you can see how well you did compared to both adults and 10th graders.  You can also read about the difficulties teachers are having teaching about climate change in the classroom  At: 
(I got all the answers correct.  See if you can match me.)
The Guardian Environmental Blog for May 5 has an article titled, Heartland Institute compares belief in global warming to mass murder!  This radical right ‘think tank’ has really gone off the deep end.  I hope that the corporations that have funded the organization have the good sense to pull their support.  Unbelievable!  At: 
I must tell you that I was recently interviewed on a local Wilmington, DE radio station (WDEL) about climate change and was call an environmental Nazi by a listener who called in!
Ted.com/talks has a 9-minute video with Hans Rosling, who uses the example of washing machines to show why the majority of the 7 billion people in the world want to have them - along with all the other conveniences made possible by energy - just like we do.  He touches on population growth, economic growth, and future energy demand in a very entertaining way.  At:
U.S.News on MSNBC.com posted a piece on May 5 by Miguel Llanos titled, US claims 'unprecedented' success in test for new fuel source, which described drilling in the Arctic on Alaska’s North Slope by Conoco Phillips for methane hydrate, a co-crystalized form of ice with about 13% methane by weight. The company and Secretary Stephen Chu of the U.S. Dept. of Energy see this as a great new source of fossil fuel, with perhaps 600 trillion cubic feet of methane under premafrost on Alaskan land and 200,000 trillion under Alaskan waters offshore.  At: 
If all of this carbon is burned to CO2 and released into the atmosphere, it will really do a number on Earth’s climate, which is already at risk from conventional fossil fuels.  It will be even worse if methane gets into the atmosphere without being burned, as it is a much more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2.
On May 8 Jason Samenow of the Washington Post announced that during May 2011 to April 2012 the U.S. had the highest average temperature for any 12-month period since record keeping began in 1895, with an average temperature 2.8 degrees F higher that the 20th Century average.  At: 
The following items are from the Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI), Carol Werner, Executive Director. Past issues of its newsletter are posted on its website under "publications"
EESI’s newsletter is intended for all interested parties, particularly the policymaker community. 

EPA Claims No Plans to Regulate Carbon Emissions from Existing Power Plants
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) said it currently has “no plans” for the regulation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from existing power plants. A proposed GHG emissions standard for new power plants released on March 27 contained only one reference to plans for existing source standards, while a draft of the rule submitted to the Office of Management and Budget on November 7 contained numerous references to developing standards for existing power plants. At the rule’s release, EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson told reporters, “We don’t have plans to address existing plants.”   The draft included comments such as, “At a future date, EPA intends to promulgate emission guidelines for states to develop plans reducing [carbon dioxide] emissions from existing fossil-fuel-fired [electric generating units]” and “regulation of new sources of those pollutants triggers a requirement that EPA also promulgate emission guidelines for existing source.” The EPA’s change of plans regarding existing source regulations apparently arose during a White House review of the proposed standard for new sources.
For additional information see: Politico
Senate Committee Holds Hearing on Sea Level Rise
On April 19, the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources held a hearing titled, “Impacts of Rising Sea Levels on Domestic Infrastructures.” Committee Chairman Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) ended his opening statement by saying, “The discussion that we’re having today is an important one. Witnesses will be testifying about real-world impacts. I hope that this hearing contributes to the restarting of a national conversation on this important topic.” Five Democratic senators attended, while Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), was the only Republican member at the hearing.  Waleed Abdalati, chief scientist at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), noted at the hearing, “It is clear there are changes coming. It is clear the way we use energy is contributing to those changes, and I think it should be equally clear that our success in the face of those changes really depends on slowing them down, keeping them as small as we reasonably can . . . investments in alternate energy are, I think, essential for a successful future.”

Climate Change Increases Conservation Costs
Studies examining conservation costs and climate change in South Africa, Madagascar and California were published together in Conservation Biology on April 12.  Despite different effects of climate change on local species, the studies predicted conservation costs to increase in all three regions.  "If world leaders want to be effective in both slowing the rate of environmental degradation and helping the poor to prosper now and in the future, they should place biodiversity conservation at the top of their agendas," advised Lee Hannah, a study author. Conservation of biodiversity also benefits humans. For example, “By protecting the plants and animals of its forests, Madagascar is protecting the sources of life-saving medicines, clean water for agriculture, and jobs for people in tourism," according to Jonah Busch, Climate and Forest Economist at Conservation International. Restoring rainforest to avoid species extinction as climate changes is six times more expensive than protecting existing forest in Madagascar.
For additional information see: Phys.org, Conservation Biology

Study: Electric Car Greenhouse Gas Emissions Vary by Local Energy Sources
A recent study from the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) compared the greenhouse gas emissions of electricity produced in different regions to power the all-electric Nissan Leaf versus the emissions of hybrid and conventional gasoline vehicles.  The study found that 45 percent of U.S. residents live in areas where powering an electric vehicle is equivalent to a gasoline vehicle that attains 50 miles per gallon (mpg) or more and equivalent to over 80 mpg in certain areas, including parts of New York and California.  Another 37 percent of Americans live in areas where power plant emissions for electric cars are at the equivalent of 41-50 mpg, comparable to hybrid cars. An electric car in a region totally reliant on coal power would be equivalent to 30 mpg; on par with conventional gasoline cars. “The good news is that, as the nation's electric grids get cleaner, consumers who buy an EV today can expect to see their car's emissions go down over the lifetime of the vehicle,” said report author Don Anair. Electric vehicles provide protection against changing gas prices, and the report estimates $13,000 fuel savings over an average car lifetime, compared to a 27 mpg conventional car.  The UCS report also stated a need for systemic change, “To prevent the worst consequences of global warming, the automotive industry must deliver viable alternatives to the oil-fueled, internal-combustion engine — i.e., vehicles boasting zero or near-zero emissions.”

Voters Favor Regulating Carbon Dioxide
Three out of four U.S. voters favor regulating carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas pollutant and 65 percent of Americans support an international treaty requiring the U.S. to cut carbon dioxide 90 percent by the year 2050, according to a survey of Americans released by Yale and George Mason University.   Forty-seven percent of respondents favor eliminating subsidies for oil, gas, coal, nuclear or renewable energy.  Sixty-one percent support policies that would hold the fossil fuel industry accountable for, "all the hidden costs we pay for citizens who get sick from polluted air and water, military costs to maintain our access to foreign oil and the environmental costs of spills and accidents.”  Sixty eight percent say the United States should make either a large-scale or medium-scale effort to reduce global warming, even if this has large or moderate economic costs. Seventy percent also believe corporations and industries should be doing more to prevent climate change, and 67 percent believe Americans themselves should be doing more.  The survey of 1,008 U.S. voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.
For additional information see: Reuters, Yale Project on Climate Change Communication

Sea Level Rise Puts Power Plants at Risk
An April 19 study by science and media non-profit Climate Central identified 287 energy facilities in the lower 48 states, including four nuclear power plants, built less than four feet above local high tide line putting them at elevated risk of flooding from extreme deluges. Climate change has raised sea levels by eight inches since the late 19th century and increases the probability of extreme floods that rise at least four feet above local high tide marks and which normally should occur only once every 100 years. The Climate Central report stated that across all sites, “median odds for floods reaching at least four feet above local high tide lines are 55 percent by 2030.” Facilities at risk are spread across 22 states, but more than one-half are located in Louisiana. Ben Strauss, a report co-author who testified at the April 19 U.S. Senate hearing on sea level rise, warned that flooding energy facilities can cause blackouts, damage to critical access roads, damage to mechanical systems and facilities, oil spillage, oil supply shortages, or even nuclear disasters.
For additional information see: Climate Central, Mother Jones

Methane Released at Breaks in Arctic Ocean Ice
Data from research craft flown over Arctic ice by scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) research identified methane at cracks and in areas with melting in Arctic sea ice.  In their report, published in Nature Geoscience, the researchers stated, "the emissions rate we encountered could present a source of global consequence.” The newly-discovered Arctic Ocean methane may be the newest addition to the list of Arctic positive feedback loops, by contributing to further warming and methane release. Thawing soil releases methane, which adds to global warming, which in turns frees more methane, and so on. This study is the first report of methane from melting sea ice, but the source of the methane remains unknown.  The gas is unlikely to be from sediment in the continental shelf as it was found at locations over the deep ocean.
For additional information see: AFP, The Independent, Science Daily

Warm Ocean Water Linked to Antarctic Ice Melt
Scientists with the British Antarctic Survey using a satellite-mounted laser instrument to measure ice thickness in Antarctic floating ice shelves found that warm ocean currents are melting ice sheets from below, contributing significantly to Antarctic ice loss. Dr. Hamish Pritchard, lead author of the group’s report published in the journal Nature, explained that shifts in wind currents driven by factors such as natural weather variation, the ozone hole and climate change have pushed warmer water  towards and under the ice shelves. “It means that we can lose an awful lot of ice to the sea without ever having summers warm enough to make the snow on top of the glaciers melt — the oceans can do all the work from below,” he said. Understanding the links between climate change and ice loss will help scientists make more accurate predictions of sea level rise.
For additional information see: Science Daily, BBC News, ABC News

Virginia Supreme Court: Insurance Company Need Not Cover Climate Change Lawsuit
On Friday, April 20, the Virginia Supreme Court  unanimously ruled that insurance provider Steadfast is not responsible for covering power company AES’s cost of defense or settlement in a climate change lawsuit under a commercial general liability (CGL) accident insurance policy.  In February 2008, Alaskan Native Village of Kivalina sued AES and about 20 more oil and energy companies for releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and contributing to global warming, which they argue, has caused late freezing and early melting of sea ice that allows winters storms to damage the shoreline and village. The Court stated, "Where the harmful consequences of an act are alleged to have been not just possible, but the natural or probable consequences of an intentional act, choosing to perform the act deliberately, even if in ignorance of that fact, does not make the resulting injury an 'accident' even when the complaint alleges that such action was negligent." The decision sets a precedent for future cases of insurance claims over climate change lawsuits.
For additional information see: The Washington Times, Environmental Finance, LegalNewsline

Air Pollution Cooling Effect Masked Global Warming in Eastern United States
Aerosol particulate pollution emitted primarily by coal-fired power plants has delayed warming in the eastern United States by reflecting incoming sunlight, according to a study published in the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. Lead author Eric Leibensperger said, "For the sake of protecting human health and reducing acid rain, we've now cut the emissions that lead to particulate pollution — but these cuts have caused the greenhouse warming in this region to ramp up to match the global trend." Temperatures in the US ‘warming hole' fell by as much as one degree Celsius between 1930 and 1990, while average world temperature rose by 0.8 degrees Celsius between 1906 and 2005.   Clean Air Act legislation in 1970 and 1990 resulted in decreased air pollution and a 50 percent decline from peak pollution levels in 1980. In 2010, average cooling in the East was 0.3 degrees Celsius. Co-author Loretta Mickley warned, “Something similar could happen in China, which is just beginning to tighten up its pollution standards. China could see significant climate change due to declining levels of particulate pollutants."
For additional information see: PhysOrg, TG Daily

Fewer Satellites to Limit Weather and Climate Change Data
United States Earth-observation satellite capacity could decrease by 75 percent by 2020, as new missions to replace older satellites are affected by budget cuts, launch failure, mission cancellations and other problems, according to a National Resource Council (NRC) study sponsored by the  National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).  Dennis Hartmann, chair of the committee that wrote the report, cautioned, "The projected loss of observing capability will have profound consequences on science and society, from weather forecasting to responding to natural hazards. Our ability to measure and understand changes in Earth's climate and life support systems will also degrade." Observation satellites are used to measure sea surface temperatures and sea level, predict and track hurricanes, make long-term forecasts, issue severe weather warnings, track atmospheric carbon dioxide, and pick up signals from emergency beacons.
For additional information see: New York Times, PhysOrg, Report

Emissions May Increase More than Expected
A report from PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency predicts that despite voluntary emissions targets set at the Cancun climate negotiations in 2010, global greenhouse gas emissions will be at least 50.9 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent each year by 2020. That is 2.5 billion metric tons more than the Agency predicted in 2010, and 7 to 11 billion metric tons more than the limit scientists have established to prevent runaway climate change. Much of the increase comes from emerging economies, such as China, India and Brazil that have not set hard caps on emissions.
For additional information see: Reuters, PBL

House Cuts Climate Education Funding
The U.S. House of Representatives passed two amendments to the Fiscal Year 2013 appropriations bill for Commerce, Justice, Science and other agencies which cut funding to federal climate change education and outreach. The House passed an amendment that eliminates funding for the National Science Foundation’s climate change education program by a vote of 238-188. Also, an amendment blocks an increase of $542,000 in appropriated funds for NOAA's Climate.gov website which provided a centralized location for climate information. The NOAA amendment was introduced by Rep. Andy Harris (R-MD) and passed 219-189. The House appropriations bill now goes to the Senate.
For additional information see: Climate Central

Climate Variability Affecting Idaho’s Water Supplies, Flood Control
Increased weather variability due to global climate change is making it difficult to control floods and water flow for irrigation, recreation and fisheries at reservoirs. For example, coinciding record high temperatures and rainfall sent 26,000 cubic feet of water per second surging into the Boise River dam system and forced federal river managers to increase flow out of Lucky Peak Dam to the highest level since 1998. Runoff is beginning earlier, in late March, with flow peaks in early May rather than late May or early June. Variable weather events like those this April are making it difficult to predict reservoir water levels and river flow rates. Despite modern technology, “Our forecasts were more accurate in the ’60s through the ’70s than they are now,” said Ron Abramovich, a water-supply specialist with the Natural Resources Conservation Service in Boise. “A lot of people think global warming is going to be a gradual increase in temperatures. It may be a roller coaster . . . kind of like the stock market,” commented Abramovich.
For additional information see: Idaho Statesman

Majority of Public Favors Climate Policies, Support Dips Since 2010
Americans' support for government steps to cut greenhouse gas emissions has dropped from an average of 72 percent to 62 percent in the past two years, according to a poll from Stanford University.  "Most Americans still support industry taking steps aimed at cutting greenhouse gas emissions, but they hate the idea of consumer taxes to do it," said lead researcher Jon Krosnick.  The average drop in support for these policies was about seven percentage points among those who identified themselves as Democrats or independents versus 14 points for Republicans. The report suggests that cool average temperatures in 2011 and statements by Republican presidential candidates which expressed skepticism about climate change as reasons for the drop in support.
For additional information see: USA Today, Poll

Reduced Carbon Permit Prices Result in More Coal Burning
The European economic downturn has reduced the cost of carbon permits which has increased the use of coal-fired power plants. The European Union carbon permitting scheme seeks to combat climate change by capping carbon dioxide emissions at industrial and power plants and requiring them to purchase permits for emissions which exceed the caps. The economic slump and decreased industrial output has resulted in a surplus of permits and a 60 percent decrease in permit prices allowing power companies to burn more coal at lower cost and without exceeding carbon dioxide emissions targets. Germany, Europe’s largest power market, has been increasing the use of coal power since January, and profits based on benchmark German prices have risen by around 30 percent.  "If you have anything that's coal-fired in your generation park at the moment — be it lignite or hard coal — you will take advantage of the high margins and burn the stuff," a trader with a major German utility said.
For additional information see: Reuters
NOTE: This increased burning of coal points out a weakness of the cap-and-trade system compared to a direct fee on carbon dioxide emissions.  The fee need not be a tax, in that it could be distributed back to all citizens on an equal per capita basis. 

Geoengineering Strategies Could Cool Climate
Geoengineering strategies that could combat climate change come with costs, political considerations, and risk of unexpected effects. Cooling strategies generally fall into two categories; techniques to block solar radiation, such as artificially increasing cloud cover or dispersing sulfur compounds that will scatter light in the atmosphere, and strategies to remove and store atmospheric carbon in the earth or oceans.  Removing carbon would be a slow, expensive process, but is less risky.  Blocking solar radiation could have unintended side effects, such as altering monsoon cycles or other weather patterns.  Who makes decisions to alter climate, and how these decisions are made could lead to global conflict. Reports from organizations such as the Royal Society, and the U.S. Government Accountability Office are urging the decision maker to consider a situation where geoengineering is required. A recent report from Wilson International Center for Scholars said, “At the very least, we need to learn what approaches to avoid even if desperate.”
For additional information see: The New Yorker
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Chad A. Tolman
chadtolman@verizon.net
Coalition for Climate Change Study and Action

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