Saturday, November 20, 2010

CLIMATE CHANGE NEWS FOR NOVEMBER 2010

CC NEWS FOR NOV. 2010

On Oct. 12 the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication issued a report titled, Americans’ Knowledge of Climate Change. The report finds that 63% of Americans believe that climate change is occurring, but most do not understand why. “The study also found important gaps in knowledge and common misconceptions about climate change and the earth system. These misconceptions lead some people to doubt that global warming is happening or that human activities are a major contributor, to misunderstand the causes and therefore the solutions, and to be unaware of the risks. Thus many Americans lack some of the knowledge needed for informed decision-making in a democratic society.” (emphasis added) At: http://environment.yale.edu/climate/publications/knowledge-of-climate-change The full 58-page report is available as a pdf file at: http://environment.yale.edu/climate/files/ClimateChangeKnowledge2010.pdf

The Oct. 12 NY Times has an article by Matthew Wald titled, Offshore Wind Power Line Wins Praise, and Backing. Wald reports that Google and Good Energies, a New York investment firm specializing in renewable energy, have agreed to invest heavily in a $5 billion underwater transmission line off the East Coast. The 350 mile 5000 MW line would link wind farms from northern NJ to southern VA, hasten the development of our large U.S. offshore wind resource, and help to provide power to large population centers along the coast. Linking wind farms over a large area reduces power variability because it is very unlikely that wind will not be blowing somewhere along the line. At: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/12/science/earth/12wind.html

The Oct. 20 NY Times has an article by David Broder titled, Climate Change Doubt Is Tea Party Article of Faith. It points out that only one Republican candidate for the Senate (Mark Kirk of Illinois) doesn’t question the science of climate change or oppose any comprehensive legislation to deal with it. Mike Castle of Delaware lost his bid for the Senate against Christine O’Donnell in the Republican primary largely because of his support for a cap and trade bill in the House in 2009. The big oil companies love the Tea Party candidates, and are pouring millions of dollars into their campaigns this year. At: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/21/us/politics/21climate.html

In the he Oct. 20 issue of the Washington Post Geoff Mulvihill, in an article titled, NJ Getting One of Nation’s Largest Solar Farms, reported that a 100 acre farm will be converted into a solar PV farm with a capacity of 20 MW, one of the largest in the U.S. The investment required is expected to be $85-90 million, or about $4.50 per peak watt. At: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/20/AR2010102003015.html

Also on Oct. 20 Peter Asmus in ETSolar posted and article titled, U.S. Off-Shore Wind Industry Gets Not One, But Two Major Boosts. The two boosts are the offshore wind power transmission line to be financed by Google and others and the signing by Ken Salazar, the Secretary of the Department of the Interior, of a 28-year lease for the MA Cape Wind Project and a promise to approval time required for future projects. The U.K. is the current world leader in offshore wind, with 5000 MW in various states of development toward a goal of 33, 000 MW by 2020 at a cost of $150 billion, or about $4.50 per peak watt. At: http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2010/10/u-s-off-shore-wind-industry-gets-not-one-but-two-major-boosts

[Note that the equal costs per peak watt of solar PV in NJ and offshore wind in the U.K. mean that the offshore wind costs about half as much per kWh. That because the capacity factor (CF) for solar PV in NJ is about 0.16 while the CF for offshore wind is typically about 0.35. The CF is the fraction of maximum possible power (peak wattage) from a power source, averaged over a period of a year. The CF of a coal-fired power plant is typically about 0.85, since some downtime is required for maintenance and repair.]

The Danish Commission on Climate Change Policy issued a 97-page report titled, Green Energy – The Road to a Danish Energy System Without Fossil Fuels. The report took approximately 2 years to prepare and was issued on Sept. 28, 2010. It concluded that Denmark could be energy independent and free of fossil fuels by 2050, using a combination of: 1) greatly increasing energy efficiency, 2) increasing the percentage of energy from electricity from 20% to 40-70%, 3) making offshore wind turbines the major energy source, 4) providing energy for transportation from electricity and biofuels, and 5) heating buildings with solar heat and heat pumps using electricity from wind turbines and from combined heat and power plants burning biomass. The reasons for restructuring the energy system include dealing with climate change, energy security, and avoiding the expected unstable and rising prices of fossil fuels. At: http://www.klimakommissionen.dk/en-US/AbouttheCommission/TheDanishClimateCommissionreport/Documents/green%20energy%20GB%20screen%201page%20v2.pdf

Denmark is a small country (5.4 million), about the population of Maryland, but intends to be a world leader in the transition to a green energy economy.

Matthew Wald and Tom Zeller have an article in the Nov. 7 NY Times titled, Cost of Tapping Green Power Makes Projects Tougher Sell. It points out that renewable energy projects in the U.S. are being cancelled because regulators and politicians are reluctant to see any increase in the amounts customers pay in their electric bills. Deals to buy renewable power have been slowed or scuttled so that installation rates for wind turbines in the first three quarters are down 72% from what they were in 2009. The reason is that renewable energy today costs more than fossil fuels. Here’s the deal. If you think you might have cancer, it’s less expensive in the short term to ignore the symptoms rather than starting treatment now. This choice can ultimately be deadly. See: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/08/science/earth/08fossil.html

On October 14 the federal Climate Change Adaptation Task Force, co-chaired by the White House Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ), the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), released its interagency report (dated Oct. 5, at: http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ceq/Interagency-Climate-Change-Adaptation-Progress-Report.pdf) outlining recommendations to President Obama for how Federal Agency policies and programs can better prepare the United States to respond to the impacts of climate change. There was an earlier interim Progress Report of the Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force, issued March 16, 2010. Here are two quotes from it:

“Continuing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is critical to limiting the extent of climate change impacts, and resulting damage. The Obama Administration is committed to creating a clean energy economy and mitigating climate change by reducing emissions. While increased mitigation efforts will reduce the effects of climate change, impacts will continue to occur, reinforcing the need for adaptation and a focus on resilience.”

“The Task Force has found that climate change is affecting, and will continue to affect, nearly every aspect of our society and the environment. Some of the impacts are increased severity of floods, droughts, and heat waves, increased wildfires, and sea level rise. Climate change impacts are pervasive, wide-ranging and affect the core systems of our society: transportation, ecosystems, agriculture, business, infrastructure, water, and energy, among others.” At:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ceq/20100315-interagency-adaptation-progress-report.pdf

On Nov. 9 a YouTube video was by Juan Cole was posted showing a speech by Rep. John Shimkus (R of IL), who will seek the chairmanship of the Energy and Commerce Committee in the U.S. House. In it the Congressman quotes from Genesis to prove God will not allow the earth to be destroyed by catastrophic climate change because of His promise after the flood. For climate scientists like me this is very reassuring. See: http://www.juancole.com/2010/11/energy-committee-chairman-candidate-says-god-promised-no-more-catastrophic-climate-change-after-noah.html?rainbow

Prior to the current extinctions resulting from human activities (http://www.earth-policy.org/index.php?/plan_b_updates/2004/update35) there were five mass extinction events in the Earth’s geological history, the largest of which was the Permian Extinction about 250 million years ago, when more than 95% of the animal species were driven to extinction. A YouTube video released on 2/11/2010 suggests that the extinction was started by a huge volcanic eruption in Siberia. The large release of carbon dioxide caused the global temperature to increase about 5ºC, killing some of the animals on land. The really big die-off, however, occurred when the oceans warmed up enough to release large amounts of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, from solid methane hydrate on the ocean floor, increasing the global temperature by another 5ºC. See: http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2010/02/the-permian-mass-extinction-methane-hydrates-part-ii.html The question we must ask is: Could human burning of fossil fuels release enough carbon dioxide to destabilize the methane hydrate that now sits on the seafloor – inducing another mass extinction on the same scale as the Permian?

The Nov. 14 issue of the NY Times had an article by Justin Gillis titled, As Glaciers Melt, Science Seeks Data on Rising Seas. Among other things, the article said, “To a majority of climate scientists, the question is not whether the earth’s land ice will melt in response to the greenhouse gases those people are generating, but whether it will happen too fast for society to adjust.” Sea level rise between now at 2100 is thought to likely be between 2.5 and 6.5 feet, with just over 3 feet most likely, but we don’t understand the ice loss well. Richard Alley of Penn. State University said, “Beyond a hundred years out, it starts to look really challenging.” At:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/14/science/earth/14ice.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1

For a related video see:

http://video.nytimes.com/video/2010/11/13/science/1248069290884/tracking-greenland-s-glaciers.html

For a related blog see:

http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/13/a-nighttime-epiphany-on-sea-level/?ref=earth

There was an article by Orrin Pilkey posted last November in newobserver.com titled, Rising sea levels: a strategy for N.C. The author and Rob Young of Western Carolina University suggested that planning for major infrastructure should use a projected sea level rise (SLR) of 7 feet (2 meters). Many coastal states and cities are anticipating SLR of 3-5 feet, but scientists do not have a good understanding of how fast sea level will rise, and the water level in 2100 will depend strongly on how soon and how aggressively major emitters like the U.S. and China reduce their GHG emissions. Given the current political climate, it seems prudent to err on the side of caution.

At: http://www.newsobserver.com/2009/11/29/213460/rising-sea-levels-a-strategy-for.html


The following items are from the Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI), Carol Werner, Executive Director. Past issues of its newsletter are posted on its website under "publications"
 at http://www.eesi.org/publications/Newsletters/CCNews/ccnews.htm

EESI’s newsletter is intended for all interested parties, particularly the policymaker community.

NOAA Publishes Arctic Report Card

On October 21, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) published its annual Arctic Report Card confirming that the Arctic remains vulnerable to climate change. The report, based on the findings of 69 international researchers and 176 scientific references, states that Greenland had record high temperatures and glacier area loss in 2010; Arctic sea ice reached the third lowest recorded minimum since 1979 and Arctic snow cover duration was at a record minimum. NOAA administrator Jane Lubchenco said, “whatever is going to happen in the rest of the world happens first, and to the greatest extent, in the Arctic."

For additional information see: Washington Post, NOAA Arctic Report Card

Judge Orders Obama Administration to Decide if Polar Bears Are Endangered

On October 20, U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan ordered the Obama administration to clarify whether polar bears are endangered under U.S. law. Scientists believe that polar bears may soon become extinct because global warming has caused the rapid disappearance of Arctic sea ice upon which polar bears depend. Sullivan made the order after a coalition of environmental groups presented a case that the federal government should place polar bears on the endangered species list. The legal status of polar bears remains in question after the Obama administration supported the former President George W. Bush administration’s rule that polar bears are merely threatened. If polar bears are found to be endangered, there may be legal means to regulate greenhouse gas emissions under the Endangered Species Act.

For additional information see: Washington Post, Kansas City Star

USDA Report: U.S. Forests Offset 11 Percent of CO2 Emissions Annually

On October 15, the USDA Forest Service released a report that says U.S. forests offset roughly 11 percent of industrial carbon emissions annually. According to the report, U.S. forests currently store 41.4 billion metric tons of carbon and an additional 192 million metric tons are absorbed each year. Researchers say that this annual carbon absorption offsets carbon emissions from about 135 million cars. "America's forests play a critical role in combating climate change, collectively capturing and storing significant amounts of carbon that would otherwise pollute the atmosphere," said Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack. The report also shows that the amount of carbon stored in forests has increased steadily since 1990 because total forestland area has increased and carbon storage density is growing.

For additional information see: USDA Press Release, USDA Data Results, Reuters, Sustainable Business News

Survey Shows Britain as Carbon Pricing Leader

On October 19, Vivid Economics released a survey that ranked carbon pricing efforts by major economies to stimulate investment in cleaner energy. According to the survey, Britain had the strongest clean energy incentive by setting an implied carbon price at $29.30 per ton. Higher carbon prices stimulate investment in clean energy technologies by making dirty fuels like coal and oil more expensive and allowing new low carbon energy technologies opportunities to compete in the marketplace. After Britain, China came in second with an implied carbon price of $14.20 per ton, followed by the United States at $5.10, Japan at $3.10, Australia at $1.70 and South Korea at $0.70. In the past few years, Britain has taken measures to create a business-friendly environment for clean energy technologies. "Investment in clean energy in the United Kingdom reached around $11 billion in 2009," Erwin Jackson, deputy chief executive of the Climate Institute said in a statement.

For additional information see: Reuters

Experts Gather in Toronto to Discuss Climate Mitigation and Adaptation

On October 5, the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy and the Royal Canadian Geographical Society released a joint report outlining changes Canada will experience if global temperatures increase 2⁰C. The report found that Canada’s ski industry will suffer, shipping cargo across the Great Lakes could be more expensive because of lower water levels, Arctic sea ice is expected to decrease 50 percent, and the South Saskatchewan River may dry up, among many other changes. A few days after the report’s release, experts gathered in Toronto to discuss how Canadian cities are increasingly vulnerable to many different climate disasters. “Planning policy has to catch up with carbon-change policy,” said Eva Ligeti, executive director of Clean Air Partnership, at the meeting. “We need a coordinated, multi-disciplinary response plan, embedded in planning documents. We need to develop our adaptive capabilities and reduce emissions before we reach the point where we can no longer adapt.”

For additional information see: The Globe and Mail, Toronto Sun

Bangladesh and India Extremely Vulnerable to Climate Change Impacts

On October 20, British risk advisory firm Maplecroft released a Climate Change Vulnerability Index, which measures the vulnerability of 170 countries to adverse climate impacts over the next 30 years. The index evaluates 42 social, economic and environmental factors to assess national vulnerabilities to climate-related natural disasters, sea level rise and human impacts such as agricultural dependency and resource conflicts. Bangladesh and India ranked the highest within the ‘extreme risk’ category that also included the Philippines, Vietnam and Pakistan. At this moment, developing countries are attracting large foreign investment and climate change impacts are becoming serious concerns for investors. "Understanding climate vulnerability will help companies make their investments more resilient to unexpected change," according to Matthew Bunce, principal analyst at Maplecroft.

For additional information see: Reuters, Maplecroft Index

Gulf Coast to Face $350 Billion in Extreme Weather Damages by 2030

On October 20, Entergy Corporation released a study showing the U.S. Gulf Coast may face economic damages amounting to $350 billion by 2030 because of extreme weather events. The three types of hazards analyzed in the study were wind-related damage, gradual sea level rise, and sudden storm flooding. The report recommends a $50 billion investment for projects such as reinforcing beaches and improving building codes. According to the report, “with climate change, we should expect a Katrina/Rita-type year occurring every lifetime by 2030.” Entergy Chief Executive Officer J. Wayne Leonard said, “with the multiplier effect, the amount of economic loss to the Gulf Coast could rise to $700 billion, the gross domestic product for the entire region for one year.”

For additional information see: Bloomberg, Entergy Study

Western Hemisphere To Experience Extreme Drought

On October 19, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews published a study supported by the National Science Foundation that shows the United States and several other large nations may face increasingly dry conditions in the next 30 years because of warming temperatures. National Center for Atmospheric Research scientist Aiguo Dai used 22 computer climate models along with an index of drought conditions to provide evidence that the Western Hemisphere, along with regions in Eurasia, Africa and Australia, may experience unprecedented drought by 2100. Specifically, the results indicate that the western two-thirds of the United States will be very susceptible to extreme drought. Conversely, northern regions from Alaska to Scandinavia will experience wetter conditions, according to the study. “We are facing the possibility of widespread drought in the coming decades, but this has yet to be fully recognized by both the public and the climate change research community,” Dai said. “If the projections in this study come even close to being realized, the consequences for society worldwide will be enormous.”

For additional information see: NCAR News Release, Climate Progress, Reuters, Study Abstract in Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews

European Companies Fund Senate Candidates Who Oppose Climate Policy

On October 25, the Climate Action Network Europe (CAN Europe) released a report which revealed that several large European companies are funding the campaigns of U.S. Senate candidates who oppose climate legislation. According to the report, Senators Jim Inhofe (R-OK) and Jim DeMint (R-SC) received $240,200 in campaign funding from Bayer, BASF, Solvay, Lafarge, BP, GDF-SUEZ, Arcelor-Mittal and EON in 2010. All of these companies are significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters themselves, together emitting 130 million tons of GHGs in 2009, according to CAN Europe. The report states, “European companies are funding almost exclusively Senate candidates who have been outspoken in their opposition to comprehensive climate policy in the U.S., and candidates who actively deny the scientific consensus that climate change is happening and is caused by people.”

For additional information see: Climate Action Network Press Release, Climate Action Network Europe Report, Guardian, Deutsche Welle

Largest Asian Cities Threatened by Climate Change

On October 22, the Asia Development Bank, the Japan International Cooperation Agency, and the World Bank released a joint report showing that large Asian coastal cities will experience frequent flooding and extreme weather events if current climate change trends continue. The report studied potential risks due to climate change in the cities of Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh City and Manila, and suggested measures and strategies to address these issues. In Bangkok, better control of ground water pumping and further investments in pump station capacity are needed to reduce urban vulnerability to flooding. In Ho Chi Minh City, 26 percent of the population is already affected by extreme weather events and a comprehensive climate change adaptation strategy was recommended. In Manila, city flooding may cause damages up to one-quarter of the city’s gross domestic product; a complete redesign of flood control infrastructure would be needed to protect against sea level rise and typhoons. The report concluded that climate-related risks need to be a central part of city planning.

For additional information see: Reuters, International Business Times, ADB Press Release, ADB Report

Pakistani Prime Minister Says Climate Change Mitigation is Urgent Issue

On October 22, Pakistan’s Ministry of Environment, in collaboration with the United Nations, held an international conference on climate change. During the conference, Prime Minister Syed Yousaf Raza Gilani said that climate change is a major environmental issue and urged nations to form a universal and collective response, particularly in vulnerable South Asian regions. Gilani said Pakistan is developing a comprehensive climate change strategy and the country is looking forward to a substantive outcome at December’s UN Climate Change Conference in Cancun. Pakistan was one of the first nations to sign the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Although Pakistan emits a small percentage of global greenhouse gas emissions, it faces severe climate change impacts such as melting of glaciers, sea level rise and flooding.

For additional information see: Business Recorder, Pakistan Observer, Daily Times

New Mexico Approves Cap and Trade Plan

On November 2, the New Mexico Environmental Improvement Board approved a cap and trade program that will restrict greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The program, which will begin in 2012, requires a two percent reduction in GHG emissions per year until 2020. If entities are unable to cut their emissions by two percent they will be able to purchase emissions credits from other entities, allowing more efficient entities to profit from the sale of credits. The program will allow New Mexico to participate in trading carbon allowances in the Western Climate Initiative, a collaboration of four Canadian provinces and seven U.S. states that seek to cut GHG emissions 15 percent from 2005 levels by 2020. Economic predictions show a modest net benefit to the New Mexico economy. Governor Bill Richardson said that the U.S. government should build on New Mexico’s program to implement a national cap and trade system.

For additional information see: Bloomberg, AP, Press Release

UN Report Warns Climate Change Poses Threat to Human Progress

On November 4, the UN released a report that warned continued failure to tackle climate change risks decades of progress in improving the lives of the world’s poorest people. In the annual report, the UN said that unsustainable patterns of production and consumption posed the most substantial challenge to fight poverty. “For human development to become truly sustainable, the close link between economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions needs to be severed,” the report said. In one estimate, the UN explained that adverse effects of climate change could double the price of wheat. By 2050, the report predicted consumption of cereals would fall by a fifth, leaving 25 million additional children malnourished, principally in Asia. Affluent countries “need to blaze the trail” on making economic growth less dependent on fossil fuels and helping poor nation get on the path toward sustainable development, the report stated.

For additional information see: The Guardian, Agence France Presse, Report

Atmospheric CO2 Triggered a Global Warming Event 40 Million Years Ago

On November 5, a study published in Science shows that atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) was the primary driver of a 400,000 year global warming event known as the middle Eocene climatic optimum (MECO), an epoch between 55 million and 34 million years ago. The climate trend across the entire Eocene can be characterized as a period of transition from a warmer climate to a cooler climate. The MECO, however, changed this trend and represents the last major temperature increase before the end of the epoch. Researchers studied sediment taken from deep beneath the ocean floor that spanned the Eocene using paleothermometers to reconstruct changes in sea-surface temperature during the MECO. This study is different because it employed two independent paleothermometers that “can clearly differentiate between temperature changes and other factors.” The authors show that the sea surface warmed by 3-6° Celsius. The MECO is an interesting time span because there were no glaciers during the period, so the researchers could look exclusively at the relationship between CO2 and temperature without having to account for variations due to glacial ice. Co-author Alexander Houben stated that the results will help climatologists gain a better understanding of the climate sensitivity concept — the degree to which global temperature increase is dependent on an accompanying increase in CO2.

For additional information see: Scientific American, Abstract

IEA Urges Global Leaders to Abandon Fossil Fuel Subsidies

On November 9, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released a report urging nations to eliminate fossil fuel subsidies to curb energy demand and cut carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions which cause climate change. The World Energy Outlook 2010 suggests that the lack of substantial action at last year’s UN climate negotiations in Copenhagen means that much tougher action will be needed after 2020, and an additional $1 trillion in spending will be needed by 2030, to hold temperature rise to 2°C. Eliminating fossil fuels subsidies would cut CO2 emissions 5.8 percent by 2020, according to the IEA. Fossil fuel subsidies were estimated at $312 billion in 2009, compared with $57 billion for renewable energy. "Getting the prices right, by eliminating fossil-fuel subsidies, is the single most effective measure to cut energy demand in countries where they persist, while bringing other immediate economic benefits," said Nabuo Tanaka, head of the IEA. “The message here is clear. We must act now to ensure that climate commitments are interpreted in the strongest way possible and that much stronger commitments are adopted and taken up after 2020, if not before. Otherwise, the 2°C goal could be out of reach for good." On November 12, the G20 reaffirmed their commitment to phase out fossil fuel subsidies at the Seoul Summit.

For additional information see: Reuters, London Business Green, Nature, BBC, White House Press Release, World Energy Outlook 2010

New York Governor Paterson Releases Draft Plan to Cut Greenhouse Gas Emissions

On November 9, the New York State Climate Action Council released a draft plan that would reduce the state’s greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent by 2050. The plan calls for doubling the state’s renewable energy resources by 2030, increasing efficiency in all buildings, shifting private transportation toward electric vehicles, and supporting job growth in clean energy industries. State officials stated that the plan was not just a tool for reducing emissions, but also a tool for economic growth. “Transitioning to clean energy means more than driving a zero-emission car,” said Governor Paterson. “It also means manufacturing that car right here in New York, employing New York workers, driving the New York economy and building New York’s tax base.” Paterson administration officials hope that Governor-elect Andrew Cuomo will use the plan, which they say is in line with Mr. Cuomo’s energy platform. Public comments on the draft plan will be accepted for 90 days.

For additional information see: New York Times, Draft Plan

Scientists Organize to Communicate Climate Change Science Effectively

On November 8, the American Geophysical Union (AGU), a non-partisan scientific organization, announced plans to re-launch its Climate Q & A service, a program that will help journalists understand climate change science. AGU announced that 700 scientists have signed up to help answer scientific questions about global warming and anthropogenic climate change. Scientists will not answer questions related to policy, ethics, or economics. Additionally, John Abraham of the University of St. Thomas in Saint Paul, Minnesota is organizing 39 scientists who will be part of a rapid response team that will be available to correct climate change misinformation in the media. Abraham stated that scientists have a duty to engage with the public on climate change and it should be done in a policy neutral way. He also said that the effort was “in response to a real disconnect between what is known in the scientific community and the consensus among the general public." The Q & A service began in 2009 to help journalists cover the UN climate negotiations in Copenhagen, and since then AGU has been working to re-launch the program in time for this December’s UN Climate Change Conference in Cancun.

For additional information see: The Guardian, Chicago Tribune, Agence France-Presse, Popular Science

Ocean Acidification Threatens Coral Reef Reproduction

On November 8, a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences shows that ocean acidification — the lowering of pH levels from an increased absorption of carbon dioxide (CO2) — affects the sexual reproduction of corals. Coral species’ ability to reproduce is affected by pH levels, and coral recruitment — fertilization and larvae settlement —could fall by 73 percent over the next 100 years. It is widely accepted that ocean acidification affects mature coral, but this is the first study to document the impacts of ocean acidification on fertilization and settlement efforts of coral.

For additional information see: Science News, Science Daily, Abstract

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Thanks,
Chad A. Tolman

chadtolman@verizon.net
Coalition for Climate Change Study and Action

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

CLIMATE CHANGE NEWS FOR OCTOBER 2010

CC NEWS FOR OCT. 2010

On September 1 Bill McKibben, the founder of www.350.org, was interviewed on The Late Show with David Letterman. The 11-minute video is well worth watching. McKibben’s organization - begun with 7 of his students, each one taking a continent to organize – is behind the 10/10/10 international day of climate awareness and action. You can see the video at: http://www.350.org/letterman

On Oct. 10 there were over 7300 10/10/10 events in 188 countries. This was the largest environmental demonstration in history. The idea is to reduce the concentration of CO2 to below 350 ppm and keep the global average temperature from rising more than 2°C. In Delaware we planted 350 native trees, in an event sponsored by the DE Chapter of the Sierra Club, the LWVDE, the Delaware Center for Horticulture, The Nature Conservancy and seven area churches. Across the U.S., the Sierra Club, the League of Women Voters, and the Unitarian-Universalist Association endorsed 10/10/10 events.

Stephen Leahey wrote an article for the Sept. 20 IPS News titled, Arctic Ice in Death Spiral. In it he quotes Mark Serreze, Director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado, saying, "The Arctic sea ice has reached its four lowest summer extents (area covered) in the last four years," and ”I stand by my previous statements that the Arctic summer sea ice cover is in a death spiral. It's not going to recover." There will be no recovery because more than 2.5 million square kilometers of the Arctic Ocean have been opened up to the heat of the 24-hour summer sun. If the global warming since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution goes from the present 0.8°C to 2.0°C, the temperature in the Arctic is likely to go up at least 4-6°C and possible as much as 8°C, releasing large amounts off carbon dioxide and methane as permafrost melts. A large addition of this powerful greenhouse gas is not included in current climate models. At: http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=52896

I wonder what it will take to wake people up to the looming danger from the Arctic?

The Word Doctors, under Frank Luntz, have developed a series of slides showing American public attitudes toward energy and climate change, and how to frame the message to order to get broad public support. Luntz is the strategist who developed the message for the Republican Party that there is substantial uncertainty among scientists about whether climate change is real, and if it is, if it is caused by human activities or is perfectly natural. It’s striking the extent to which climate change denial has been accepted by Republicans – with a very damaging effect on the ability of the United States to exert global leadership on the issue of climate change or to benefit from the economic opportunities provided by the crisis. At: http://www.edf.org/documents/10738_Language-of-a-Clean-Energy-Economy.pdf?redirect=language

On Sept. 24, Need to Know on PBS posted a video titled, Legacy of waste: The high cost of nuclear power. It points our that the U.S. still does not have a plan for long-term storage of nuclear waste, and that the costs of storage – even for closed plants like Maine Yankee – are high and growing, and are being paid by American taxpayers. Well wroth watching. At: http://www.pbs.org/wnet/need-to-know/environment/legacy-of-waste-the-high-cost-of-nuclear-power/3846/

The Sept. 28 NY Times Green, a blog on energy and the environment, has an article by Matthew Wald titled, Never Mind Oil, Group Says: Think Atlantic Wind. The article gives the results of a study showing that nearly half of the electricity demand of East Coast states from Maine to Florida could be supplied by offshore wind at depths up to about 100 feet from 4 to 24 miles off the coast. In fact, there is a lot more energy available from wind than there is from oil or gas that could be recovered by drilling off the coast, would provide more jobs, and would be much less damaging to the environment. Northern coastal states could replace home heating oil and gas by electricity from wind. A lot of transportation could also be provided if we had a fleet of all-electric vehicles or plug-in hybrids. At:

http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/28/never-mind-oil-group-says-think-atlantic-wind/

The Sept. 28 NY Times published an article by Elisabeth Rosenthal titled, Ancient Italian Town Has Wind at its Back. The small mountainous town of Tocco has put in four wind turbines and solar PV panels and now generates more electricity than it can use. Because of the high cost of electricity from fossil fuels in the area, and a policy of feed-in tariffs (the government pays for excess renewable energy at high fixed rates), the town is prospering. Could that happen here? At: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/29/science/earth/29fossil.html

California’s Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, at the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco, spoke very bluntly and critically of a well - financed effort by oil companies – especially Valero, Tessoro and the Koch Brothers – to overturn California’s law AB 32 (California's Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. You can see some of the video and hear some of the audio recording of the speech broadcast by Keith Obermann on MSNBC and posted on Sept. 29. It seems that the Koch Brothers have given major financial support to the Tea Party movement. At: http://commonwealthclub.blogspot.com/2010/09/countdown-with-keith-olbermann-on-gov.html

The Governor’s complete 63-minute speech can be seen at his web site at:

http://gov.ca.gov/press-release/10632/. The press release also describes the Western Climate Initiative – involving the sates of California, Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, Montana, Oregon, and Washington along with four Canadian provinces – to reduce CO2 emissions from all sources by 15% below 2005 levels by 2020.

I just became aware of an old AFP report (June 2009) titled, Sweden picks site to bury nuclear waste for 100,000 years. The article is significant because it describes one of the world’s first permanent nuclear waste storage sites. The waste will be buried in tunnels drilled 500 meters (1640 feet) into bedrock, with each 2 metric tons of spent reactor fuel stored in a copper coated canister weighing 25 tons. (Copper was presumably chosen because of its corrosion resistance.)

Apparently it takes about 100,000 years for the radioactivity of the waste to decline to the level the uranium ore had when it was mined. Based on this solution to the waste storage problem, the Swedish government has reversed a decision to phase out nuclear power, which now provides 45% of the country’s electricity. At: http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hGO5QwX26ptEhQFnZWB-XopRrwQQ

In September 2009 the nonpartisan Environmental Law Institute released a report titled, Estimating U.S. Government Subsidies to Energy Sources 2002-2008. During the 7-year study period, federal subsidies for fossil fuels totaled $72.5 billion, while renewable energy sources got $29.0 billion; of that the lion’s share ($16.8 billion) went to ethanol from corn – with little, if any, benefit in terms of reducing CO2 emissions. At: http://computationallegalstudies.com/2010/07/16/estimating-u-s-government-subsidies-to-energy-sources-02-08-from-environmental-law-institute/

The Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control (DNREC) has a well done website dealing with climate change, including links to may valuable sources of information. At: http://www.dnrec.delaware.gov/ClimateChange/Pages/Climate%20change%20and%20Delaware.aspx

It contains a link to What does climate change mean for Delaware. At: http://www.dnrec.delaware.gov/ClimateChange/Pages/WhatdoesclimatechangemeanforDelaware.aspx. Because Delaware is a low-lying coastal state, sea level rise is of particular concern.

Thomas Friedman wrote an opinion piece for the Sept. 25 NY Times titled, Their Moon Shot and Ours. In it he reports that China is making major investments in four strategic areas: 1) building a network of ultramodern airports; 2) building a web of high-speed trains connecting major cities; 3) bioscience; and 4) developing batteries for a growing electric car industry. In the meantime the U.S. is spending hundreds of billions of dollars fixing Afghanistan. He writes, “We need to be in a race with China, not just Al Queda. Let’s start with electric cars.” Electric cars could not only greatly reduce our need for imported oil (and thus our military expenses), but could provide a means of storing large amounts of energy from renewable sources like wind and solar power. At: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/26/opinion/26friedman.html?_r=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

Sunpluggers.com, a solar home and business journal, published an article on Sept. 30 titled, California Enacts Energy Storage Law to Help Prepare for More Solar, Wind. The article says, “California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has signed a law (AB 2514) believed to be the first in the country requiring utilities to begin planning for ways to store electricity that could be dispatched as needed.” A news release from the state attorney general’s office said, "Energy storage is important for an expanding renewable energy future because solar and wind power are not available at all times. Increasing storage allows California to take greater advantage of its renewable resources while making our electric power grid more reliable. Expanded storage will also protect public health by reducing the need for the most polluting 'peaker plants' that only operate during peak demand, usually during the summer when air conditioners in the state are in most intense use." At: http://sunpluggers.com/news/california-enacts-energy-storage-law-to-help-prepare-for-solar-wind-0990

On October 5 Dina Capiello of the Washington Post wrote an article titled, Here comes the sun: White House to go solar. Stephen Chu of the Department of Energy made the announcement that solar power would be used to heat water and generate electricity on the roof of the White House. The effort was led by Bill McKibben, who brought back to the White House one of the solar panels Jimmy Carter had installed in the 1970’s - later removed by Ronald Reagan, in what can only be described as a big step backwards. See: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/05/AR2010100500590.html

Also on Oct. 5 the University of Delaware UDaily announced that UD and its partners and its University System of Maryland, the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science (UMCES), and the University of Maryland have been awarded a 2-year NSF grant for nearly $1 million to establish a climate change education partnership. The Maryland and Delaware Climate Change Education, Assessment, and Research (MADE-CLEAR) program “will develop innovative climate change curricula for pre-school through higher education, provide new learning opportunities for teachers that will lead to climate change education expertise, and promote outreach using innovative technology and communication methods to build public understanding of climate change.” The “emphasis will be on understanding the science of climate change and the nature of its impacts.” At: http://www.udel.edu/udaily/2011/oct/made-clear-climate100510.html

The Million Letter March (http://www.millionlettermarch.org/sample-letters/index.php) has released a YouTube video asking people to write a letter to their representative in Congress in support of a carbon fee and dividend system for putting a price on carbon and encouraging the transition to a carbon-free society. The idea is that producers and importers of fossil fuels would pay a fee ($/ton of carbon) at their source, which would then be distributed to all on an equal per capita basis. It avoids many of the economic and political pitfalls of cap-and-trade. At: http://www.youtube.com/user/MillionLetterMarch#p/a/u/0/a5XQBUvcez0

USA Today on Oct. 11 published an article titled, Study: Offshore wind could generate all U.S. electricity. Abundant off the coasts of 26 states on the Atlantic, Pacific and Gulf coasts and Great Lakes, could generate four times the current U.S. electricity demand – if fully developed. According to a new 240-page study by DOE’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the U.S. could generate 20% of its total electricity needs from offshore wind by 2030, while creating more than 43,000 permanent well-paid jobs. The U.S. currently leads the world in land-based wind power, but has not yet started to develop its offshore wind resources, as Denmark did nearly 20 years ago. At: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/greenhouse/post/2010/10/offshore-wind-us-electricity/1

The Executive Summary of the NREL report can be found at:

http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy10osti/49229.pdf and the full report, Large-Scale Offshore Wind Power in the United States – Assessment of Opportunities and Barriers, at:

http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy10osti/40745.pdf

On Oct. 12, Jeremy van Loon and Christian Wienberg of Bloomberg News published a story titled, Wind Power Investments May Reach $202 Billion by 2030, Industry Group Says. They reported that last year $63 billion was invested in new wind power, adding over 37 GW of capacity and bringing the total world capacity to nearly 160 GW. (1 GW (gigawatts) is a million kW.) Fully one third of the new turbines were added in China, doubling its capacity to 25 GW. The world is now employing about 600,000 workers. By 2030 wind capacity is expected to reach 2300 GW and supply 22% of world electricity demand. At: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-12/wind-could-meet-12-of-global-power-demand-by-2020-gwec-says.html

KCTZ.com News posted an article on forests on Oct. 15 at: http://www.ktvz.com/news/25406348/detail.html

An editorial in the NY Times for Oct. 18 titled, In Climate Denial, Again, pointed out that not one Republican candidate for the Senate this year acknowledges that the Earth’s climate is changing and that human activities – especially the burning of fossil fuels – are to blame. It’s a sad day for the Republican Party and for the United States. It's a tragedy for the party because people will eventually recognize how ill advised the Republican position is, and what great damage it produces for wildlife, human welfare, and our economy. It's a tragedy for the U.S. because China and other countries may leave us in the dust as our transition to a clean, green economy is delayed. At: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/18/opinion/18mon1.html?_r=1

The Energy and Environmental Study Institute (EESI) is now issuing excellent fact sheets on a number of important issues. The one for October is called, Offshore Wind Energy and is on the web at: http://www.eesi.org/files/offshore_wind_101310.pdf


The following items are from the Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI), Carol Werner, Executive Director. Past issues of its newsletter are posted on its website under "publications"
 at http://www.eesi.org/publications/Newsletters/CCNews/ccnews.htm

EESI’s newsletter is intended for all interested parties, particularly the policymaker community.

Russia Demands New Global Climate Agreement

On September 22, top Russian climate advisor Alexander Bedritsky said the Kyoto Protocol will have negligible impact on mitigating global warming and that Russia is demanding a more “inclusive” agreement that would include large carbon dioxide (CO2) emitters like the United States, China and other developing countries. As of 2010, the 40 industrialized nations bound by the Kyoto Protocol account for only 28 percent of global CO2 emissions. Bedritsky acknowledged that a binding agreement would not be reached during December’s UN negotiations in Cancun, but expressed optimism that significant progress will be made. Bedritsky specified that at the negotiations, Russia will seek recognition for the role its forests play in CO2 absorption. Climate change policy has a new sense of urgency in Russia following a deadly summer heat wave that broke all temperature records, killed dozens in wildfires, and destroyed one quarter of Russia's grain crop.

For additional information see: Reuters

Survey: Businesses Ready to Invest in Climate Change

On September 20, the Carbon Disclosure Project released a survey sponsored by Bank of America Merrill Lynch that analyzed emission reports of the top 500 global companies in 2010. Approximately 90 percent of the companies responding to the survey said that there is “significant commercial opportunity arising from climate change.” Carbon management is emerging as a strategic business priority as 85 percent of the companies surveyed reported having some form of upper level management focusing on climate change and 48 percent are incorporating new climate change initiatives into overall strategy. Detailed in the report is the Carbon Disclosure Leadership Index (CDLI), which measures a company’s commitment to emission reductions. American companies at this moment trail European counterparts six percent to 21 percent in the CDLI.

For additional information see: Carbon Disclosure Project Press Release, Carbon Disclosure Project Report, Reuters, Bloomberg

Study: Climate Change Triggers Epidemics

On September 19, the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs (KIHASA) announced that an increase of 1°C in average temperature correlates with a 4.27 percent increase in the prevalence of various diseases such as malaria, bacillary dysentery and enteritis. KIHASA studied five epidemics from 2005 to 2007 while keeping track of demographic differences. The report concludes that higher temperatures cause viruses to be more active. This is of particular concern in Korea because the Korea Meteorological Administration predicted the country would experience nine more days of summer by 2040 and an additional summer month by 2090.

For additional information see: Korea Times

Obama: Climate Bill Is Top Priority in 2011

On September 17, President Barack Obama told Rolling Stone magazine that an energy and climate bill is one of his top priorities for 2011. “Our objective remains achieving the pollution reduction goals called for by recent legislative proposals,” Obama said in the interview. “Whether that happens bit by bit, sector by sector or in a more comprehensive way, we will engage in and support all meaningful efforts to get there.” Like other elected officials recently, Obama referred to a piece by piece strategy rather than a large comprehensive bill as a more probable scenario for bringing about significant legislation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Key Senate Democrats and Republicans agreed with the President on this strategy. Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) said she would be in favor of a bill similar to the one she introduced with Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) that auctions off all allowances for GHG emissions and returns revenues back to taxpayers.

For additional information see: Rolling Stone, The Hill, New York Times, Politico

Top US Science Advisor Receives Climate Adaptation Report

On September 28, representatives of the National Climate Adaptation Summit unveiled a report to the President’s Science and Technology Advisor, Dr. John Holdren, on national and regional preparations for adaptation to climate change. The report stressed the importance of integrating federal climate programs, coordination among regional governments, and more funding for research on climate impacts. Further, the report discussed creating a federal climate information portal that would compile data from all relevant agencies in one accessible location, which would evolve over time into a more "national" portal with information about relevant non-federal climate efforts. The Summit report identified seven priorities for near-term action. It states that the United States must adapt to an already changing climate and prepare for increasing impacts on urban infrastructure, food, water, human health, and ecosystem in the coming decades.

For additional information see: Nature Press Release

Denmark On Path to be Fossil Fuel-Free by 2050

On September 29, a commission appointed by the Danish government released plans for moving Denmark off fossil fuels by 2050. "My government will study the recommendations very closely and will present a road map setting a date for freeing ourselves from fossil fuels," Danish Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen said. "It will be one of the first road maps in the world on how to become fully independent of fossil fuels. A plan for a transition like this will touch every part of society and every corner of politics. We are facing tough choices." The report outlines ideas on how to use replace fossil fuel consumption with wind energy and biomass fuel produced on native soil. Denmark also plans on discouraging the consumption of fossil fuels by phasing in a taxation of fossil fuels over the next 20 years. Going fossil fuel free would reduce the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions by 75 percent, and would reduce the need to turn to imported fuels to heat Denmark’s homes. Going fossil fuel free would reduce the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions by 75 percent, and would reduce the need to turn to imported fuels to heat Denmark’s homes. This turn to relying on “home-grown energy” will offset the taxes placed on coal and other fossil fuel imports. "There will be economic growth," Katherine Richardson, the commission's chairwoman said. "The difference between doing it with or without fossil fuels is about 0.5 percent of gross national product in 2050. That's the cost of insurance to keep money in this country, creating jobs here instead of sending it to a few countries somewhere else in the world to get oil and gas."

For additional information see: The Guardian, Danish Commission Report

Rising CO2 Levels Reduce Shellfish Populations, Study Says

On September 20, a new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences showed higher levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) in oceans cause decline in shellfish populations. As CO2 concentrations increase in the atmosphere due to the combustion of fossil fuels, ocean waters become more acidic and shellfish have more trouble growing shells. Lead researcher Christopher Gobler from Stony Brook University conducted experiments growing shellfish at various CO2 concentration levels. The study concluded that shellfish could not adequately grow in CO2 concentration levels of 750 ppm or higher. Under these conditions, they could not develop strong shells and had feeble connective tissue. At this moment, oceans have a CO2 concentration of 390 ppm.

For additional information see: Abstract, Discovery

Lack of Climate Action Could Result in 4.2-Degree Temperature Rise and End of Coral Reefs by 2100

On September 29, a report published in Environmental Research Letters discussed the likelihood of a 4.2°C global temperature increase and the disappearance of coral reefs by 2100. The report says that considering the lack of global action to date, the Copenhagen Accord target of keeping global temperatures from rising more than 2°C cannot be met. Even a 50 percent reduction commitment in global greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 would make this goal unlikely. According to researchers, if nations pursue less ambitious mitigation goals, there is an 80 percent chance that global temperatures will increase between 2.5 and 4.2°C. The report also indicates that rising carbon dioxide concentrations in oceans will cause coral reefs to terminally decline.

For additional information see: Abstract, Institute of Physics, Study

Study Says Climate Lawsuits Are Possible

On October 4, the Foundation for International Environmental Law and Development (FIELD) published a report that says vulnerable countries may be able to sue industrialized countries like the United States to force them to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. According to the report, small island nations can make a credible case that, as they combat rising sea levels, they are being harmed by large polluters and can demand that GHG emissions be reduced. The report cites current legal literature that supports the idea that inter-state climate change litigation is possible. Furthermore, such action may create the political pressure and third party involvement necessary to push global climate negotiations forward, the report concludes.

For additional information see: New York Times, Report Summary, Report

Federal Task Force Releases Report on Climate Change Adaptation

On October 14, the Climate Change Adaptation Task Force released an inter-agency report outlining how federal agencies can better prepare the United States to respond to the impacts of climate change. "The Federal Government has an important and unique role in climate adaptation, but it is only one part of a broader effort that must include multiple levels of government and private and non-governmental partners throughout the country. In particular, Federal leadership, guidance, information, and support are vital to planning for and implementing adaptive actions," according to the report. The Task Force is co-chaired by the White House Council on Environmental Quality, the Office of Science and Technology Policy, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The report recommends that federal agencies make climate change adaptation a standard part of agency planning. Another recommendation is to align federal adaptation efforts across jurisdictions to better address issues like threatened water resources and public health. The Task Force will release a progress report in October 2011 to document how federal agencies adopted the adaptation strategies outlined in the October 2010 report.

For additional information see: White House Press Release, Bloomberg, Interagency Report

Sun Cycle Has Unexpected Effect on Global Temperatures

On October 6, Nature published a study showing that contrary to current beliefs, the sun warms the Earth the most at the dimmest point of its 11-year solar cycle. Lead researcher Dr. Joanna Haigh analyzed daily sunlight measurements from 2004 to 2007 and found that the amount of light reaching the Earth’s surface increased while the solar activity declined. “If further studies find the same pattern over a longer period of time, [then] we may have overestimated the sun's role in warming the planet," Dr. Haigh said. Some scientists believe that during phases of lower solar activity, unusual patterns in air currents that cause very cold weather occur more frequently. The results may help explain why Europe has recently experienced very cold winters as global temperatures are rising. Scientists maintain that unlike man-made warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions, the variations in temperature due to solar activity are cyclic and should not have any lasting impact on global temperatures.

For additional information see: Nature, Study Abstract in Nature, Guardian

Slowing Population May Be Best Way to Lower CO2, Study Says

On October 12, the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences published a study on the implications of demographic change for global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) during the next century. Lead researcher Brian C. O'Neill and his team used an energy-economic growth model that took into account many demographic variables such as an aging population and further urbanization. The study concluded that slowing population growth may be one of the most effective methods of reducing CO2 emissions. O'Neill showed that slowing population growth may result in up to 29 percent of the emissions reductions necessary by 2050 to avoid harmful climate change. The study also showed that an aging population in the next 90 years may reduce emissions 20 percent. In contrast, further urbanization may increase emissions 25 percent.

For additional information see: Reuters, Study Abstract in PNAS

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Thanks,
Chad A. Tolman

chadtolman@verizon.net
Coalition for Climate Change Study and Action