Wednesday, July 24, 2013

CLIMATE CHANGE NEWS FOR JULY 2013


CC NEWS FOR JULY 2013

On May 14 Fen Montiaigne published an interview with Ralph Keeling in The Guardian titled, Record 400ppm CO2 milestone 'feels like we're moving into another era'.  Ralph is the son of Charles David Keeling, the first climate scientist to make accurate measurements of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at the Mona Loa Observatory in Hawaii, starting in 1958, when the concentration was 315 ppm.  Ralph is now the Director of the Scripps CO2 program, based in California.  In respnse to the question, “What steps would you recommend be taken fairly soon to begin to rein in emissions?” Keeling said, “Again I'm not the person to think in detail how this can work or what the constraints are. But clearly we have to wean ourselves off fossil fuels. That requires developing renewable sources of energy, and we need a marketplace that allows that to happen. As long as fossil fuels are too cheap, that's going to be hard to see. So we need some system in which the cost of the damage caused by CO2 emissions is paid at the gas pump or at the point of extraction and not by generations living later.” (emphasis added)  At: 
http://m.guardiannews.com/environment/2013/may/14/record-400ppm-co2-carbon-emissions  His answer highlights the issue of intergenerational justice.

Treehugger for June 10, 2013 has an article by Saah Hodgdon titled, Women Must Be Heard in the Climate Change Debate.  She writes, “Every day, in countless places around the world, women's lives and livelihoods are being threatened by forces beyond their control. The impacts of climate change, such as floods, droughts, extreme weather, and declining agricultural production, affect everyone. But when crops, water sources, and natural resources become scarce, women - who are often responsible for managing these resources - suffer the most.”  “According to the United Nations Entity for Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women: As small-scale farmers - the vast majority in some areas of the world - (women) have far fewer resources than men to cope with crop failures or pursue methods of farming more adapted to climate shifts. As migrants and refugees pushed from areas of climatic stress, they confront greater risks of disease and violence. During disasters that follow natural hazards, they count higher among the dead.”  At: http://www.treehugger.com/health/women-must-be-heard-climate-change-debate.html

On June 14 John Funk of the Cleveland Plain Dealer posted an article titled, Exxon's Rex Tillerson sees climate change as risk managment problem.  In response to a question after an address to the City Club of Cleveland, Tillerson, the head of the world’s largest oil company, admitted that climate change is a serious and complex problem, but opined that society may not be able to fix it and will just have to adapt.  This was the second time in 13 months that Tillerson admitted that climate change might be real.  At: http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2013/06/exxons_rex_tillerson_see_clima.html

On July 3 Lauren Morello posted an article in Nature titled, Evolution makes the grade.  She reported that the Next Generation Science Standards, released in April, are the first effort in 15 years to overhaul and modernize US science education.  They include the teaching of both evolution and climate change.  Education officials in Rhode Island, Kentucky, Kansas, Maryland and Vermont have all approved the standards; at least five more states — California, Florida, Maine, Michigan and Washington - may consider them soon.  Legislatures in Louisiana and Tennessee have passed bills that allow teachers to present material that undermines both evolution and climate change.  At: http://www.nature.com/news/evolution-makes-the-grade-1.13318

On July 15 Elizabeth Rauer posted the results of a study from the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment titled, The Best Defense Against Catastrophic Storms: Mother Nature.  It says, “The study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, offers the first comprehensive  map of the entire U.S. coastline that shows where and how much protection communities get from natural habitats such as sand dunes, coral reefs, sea grasses and mangroves.  In our changing climate, extreme weather, sea-level rise, and degraded coastal ecosystems are placing people and property at greater risk of damage from coastal hazards. The likelihood and magnitude of losses can be reduced by intact ecosystems near vulnerable coastal communities.”  The map of the coastline can be used to zoom in to particular sections of the coast (e.g., the East Coast) to see which areas are at low, medium or high risk with and without protection from natural habitats that could be lost in the future through development, sea level rise, and coastal storms.  At: http://woods.stanford.edu/news-events/news/best-defense-against-catastrophic-storms-mother-nature

The World Resources Institute has recently introduced CAIT 2.0 - WRI’s Climate Data Explorer.  One can easily find, for example, the per capita GHG emissions of various countries.  Some examples for 2010 in metric tonnes are:  U.S. (18.33), Russian Federation (11.71), Germany (9.88), China (6.65), Brazil (2.46) and India (1.40).  At: http://cait2.wri.org/wri/Country%20GHG%20Emissions?indicator=Total%20GHG%20Emissions%20Excluding%20LUCF&indicator=Total%20GHG%20Emissions%20Including%20LUCF&year=2010&sortIdx=&sortDir=&chartType=#


The following items are from the Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI), Carol Werner, Executive Director. Past issues of its newsletter are posted on its website under "publications"
 at http://www.eesi.org/publications/Newsletters/CCNews/ccnews.htm
 
EESI’s newsletter is intended for all interested parties, particularly the policymaker community. 

Study: U.S. Tax Code Has Not Yet Been Effective Tool to Reduce Carbon Emissions
Federal tax provisions do not have a large effect on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, according to a National Resources Council report published June 20. The Congressionally requested study examined various tax provisions, including renewable electricity production tax credits, oil and gas depletion allowances, home energy efficiency improvement credits, and owner-occupied housing provisions, and found that the policies yield little reduction in GHG emissions per dollar of revenue loss. The combined federal revenue losses from energy sector tax subsidies in 2011 and 2013 totaled $48 billion. The report finds that while provisions for renewable electricity reduce GHG emissions, other subsidies, such as those for ethanol and other biofuels, may have slightly increased emission. Overall, the report concludes that current approaches are not nearly as effective as carbon taxes or tradable emissions allowances would be.
For additional information see: Environmental Leader, Study
Mayors Pledge to Prepare Cities for Extreme Weather
On June 17, more than 45 mayors and other elected officials from U.S. cities pledged to make their communities more resilient to extreme weather and energy and economic challenges. The pledge, the Resilient Communities for America Agreement, includes a commitment to use more renewable energy and make buildings and infrastructure more energy efficient, as well as a commitment to share information and solutions. This pledge comes less than a week after Mayor Michael Bloomberg announced his $20 billion plan to prepare New York City for rising sea levels and increasing temperatures (see June 17 issue). Des Moines Mayor Frank Cownie, whose city has seen both severe flooding and drought the past five years, expressed the importance of local action, stating, “These extreme [weather] events are becoming more and more prevalent, and local government is really where it happens.”
For additional information see: Reuters, Resilient Communities for America
Shenzhen Becomes First Chinese City to Implement Cap and Trade System
Shenzhen implemented China’s first cap and trade system on June 18, with 635 companies included in the program. These companies emitted a total of 31.7 million tonnes of carbon (CO2) emissions in 2010. The goal of the cap is a 21 percent reduction in the emissions intensity by 2015, from 2010 levels. Li Yan, Greenpeace's climate and energy campaign manager in China, stated, "This is just a baby step when you look at the total quantity of emissions, but it enables China to establish institutions for carbon controls for the first time.” Over the next year, six other regions in China are expected to implement their own cap and trade systems (see October 15, 2012 issue).
In related news, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) and the Shenzhen Development and Reform Commission agreed to share information and work together to establish their emissions trading systems. Under the agreement, the two groups will collaborate to develop effective data gathering tools and pollution monitoring systems that can improve their systems. Mary Nichols, chair of CARB, visited Shenzhen for the opening day of their market, where she told Director of the Shenzhen Development and Reform Commission Xu Anliang, “Congratulations to Shenzhen for taking this important step forward today. We are pleased to work with you in the effort to combat global climate change. The actions of states, provinces, and cities are creating a foundation that national and international action can spring from. We are blazing the trail.”
For additional information see: Reuters, Scientific American, CARB Press Release
Note: The Shenzhen cap and trade system is designed to reduce CO2 emissions intensity - the amount of CO2 produced per unit of production (e.g., per MWh of electricity generated).  It may not reduce actual CO2 emissions (tons of CO2 per year) if the economy keeps growing.

G8 Leaders Reiterate Commitment to Address Climate Change
Leaders at the June 17-18 G8 summit in Lough Erne, Northern Ireland, released a statement that includes a series of commitments to curb greenhouse gas emissions and combat climate change for economic reasons. “Climate change is one of the foremost challenges for our future economic growth and well-being. We remain strongly committed to addressing the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions significantly by 2020 and to pursue our low carbon path afterwards,” the statement read. The leaders committed to take action through organizations such as the Major Economies Forum (MEF), the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the International Maritime Organization (IMO), and the Climate and Clean Air Coalition. The statement also pledges work with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to adopt a new international climate agreement by 2015, and to mobilize $100 billion of climate finance by 2020.
For additional information see: G8 Statement, Business Green
World Bank Study Highlights Risks to Impoverished and Coastal Regions
In a new report released June 19, the World Bank warns that climate-driven impacts will threaten the food security and livelihoods of millions of the world’s poorest and most vulnerable people. The report looks at the likely impacts of warming in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and South East Asia today (as well as in a two degrees Celsius and four degrees Celsius world) and builds upon a 2012 World Bank study (see November 26, 2012 issue). According to the report, climate-related extreme events from current warming are already pushing the most vulnerable households below the poverty threshold and will make economic growth and poverty eradication increasingly difficult as temperatures continue to rise. By 2030, the report warns, between 40 percent and 80 percent of the land used to grow maize in Sub-Saharan Africa will be unable to sustain crops due to droughts and heat, while sea-level rise and increased tropical storms could inundate much of Bangkok, Thailand and other low-lying coastal cities and islands. “In the near-term, climate change, which is already unfolding, could batter the slums even more and greatly harm the lives and the hopes of individuals and families who have had little hand in raising the Earth’s temperature,” said World Bank President Jim Yong Kim. Durwood Zaelke, president of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development, stated, “Jim Kim is sounding a wakeup call for the world to work harder and faster to combat climate change. Rapid cuts in CO2 emissions are necessary to stabilize long-term temperatures, but in the near-term, fast action to cut short-lived climate pollutants is critical for reducing the impacts we’re already suffering and the even more punishing impacts that are fast approaching in the next couple of decades.”
For additional information see: Washington Post, AP, Study, Kim Speech Transcript
Study Finds that Climate Goals Can Be Achieved Profitably
A new study by McKinsey and Company, World Wildlife Fund (WWF), and the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) demonstrates that if U.S. businesses reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by an average of three percent annually, they can save up to $780 billion over the next 10 years, including $190 billion in the year 2020 alone. The report, released June 18, concludes that a three percent annual GHG emissions reduction will amount to a 25 percent cut in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for the U.S. corporate sector from 1990 levels. Businesses could achieve this reduction by investing between three and four percent of their capital expenditures on carbon reduction projects, such as energy efficiency improvements and installation of renewable energy. Companies that lack the necessary capital to invest in projects can include energy efficiency upgrades into operation improvement expenditures. The report finds that nearly 80 percent of the companies that reported their climate and environmental goals to the CDP earned higher returns on carbon reduction investments than on their overall corporate capital investments.
For additional information see: Business Green, WWF Press Release, Report
2012 the Second Most Expensive Year for U.S. Extreme Weather
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Climate Data Center released an assessment June 13 concluding that damages from the 11 billion-dollar severe weather events in 2012 cost the United States $110 billion. Overall, 2012 was the second costliest year from severe weather in the United States, topped only by 2005. These events – which included seven severe weather and tornado events, two tropical cyclones, a severe drought and wildfire – were also responsible for more than 300 deaths. NOAA reports that the two costliest events in 2012 were Hurricane Sandy ($65 billion) and the yearlong drought across the country ($30 billion).
For additional information see: NOAA Press Release, Daily Climate, Report
Climate Change Raising Liability to the National Flood Insurance Program
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) published a report June 11 stating that the portion of the United States at risk for flooding – otherwise known as the floodplain area – will increase by up to 45 percent by the end of the century. If this occurs, the National Flood Insurance Plan (NFIP) could see premiums rise to $11.2 billion by the year 2100, compared to $3.2 billion in 2009. Furthermore, the number of NFIP-insured properties could rise from today’s level of 5.6 million, to 11.2 million by 2100. The NFIP incurred $16 billion in debt after Hurricane Katrina, and Superstorm Sandy increased that figure to $25 billion. Losses on each insured property could increase as much as 90 percent by 2100, which must then be covered by either the future storm victims or the government. The study assumes that sea levels will rise by four feet by the end of the century, though the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted last year that sea level rise could exceed six feet by 2100. Furthermore, changes in the frequency and strength of storms will likely cause severe flooding around rivers, in addition to oceanic surges. The report predicts that the greatest increases in floodplain areas will occur near the Great Lakes and Pacific Northwest. The report attributes 30 percent of this increased risk to population growth and 70 percent to climate change.
For additional information see: Mother Jones, Report
Ice Melt in Antarctica Largely Caused from Below
A study published June 13 in Science concludes that the majority of Antarctic sea ice loss is due to melting on the underside of the ice shelves that line the coasts of the continent. Previously, scientists had believed that the majority of ice loss was occurring due to icebergs breaking off of these ice shelves. However, when the researchers measured the volume of change in different areas of the ice shelves, they found that melting at the bottom of the ice shelves accounted for 55 percent of all ice loss. This study underlines the importance of the ocean temperature surrounding the Antarctic to sea ice melt. According to lead author Dr. Eric Rignot, professor of Earth system science at University of California, Irvine, “This has profound implications for our understanding of interactions between Antarctica and climate change. It basically puts the Southern Ocean up front as the most significant control on the evolution of the polar ice sheet.”
For additional information see: Los Angeles Times, Christian Science Monitor, Study
President Obama Releases Climate Action Plan
At a June 25 speech at Georgetown University, President Barack Obama outlined a suite of executive actions in his Climate Action Plan to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 17 percent from 2005 levels by 2020 and prepare the nation for the impacts of climate change. Central to the plan is the Environmental Protection Agency promulgating draft carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions standards for existing power plants by 2014. In addition, the plan directs the Department of the Interior (DOI) to permit enough renewable energy projects on public lands to power six million homes, and for federally assisted housing to deploy 100 megawatts of new renewable energy, both by 2020. The plan sets a goal for 20 percent of all energy for federal buildings to be from renewable sources by 2020, and for the federal government to reduce its emissions by at least three billion tonnes cumulatively by 2030. Obama’s plan will also release $8 billion in loan guarantees for advanced fossil fuel and efficiency projects, and strengthen the Better Building Challenge to increase building efficiency 20 percent by 2020.
Along with domestic GHG reduction provisions, the plan directs federal agencies to help the nation prepare for climate-related impacts. Climate resilience measures include: support for climate-resilient infrastructure investments; the convening of a short-term climate preparedness task force composed of state, local and tribal officials; and the development of guidelines to support local communities planning for climate impacts.
At the international level, the president pledged that the United States would help negotiate an ambitious international climate agreement by the end of 2015, to take effect in 2020. Obama also vowed to continue work to reduce short-lived climate pollutants both domestically and internationally after the agreement in early June with President Xi Jinping of China to phase down hydrofluorocarbon use under the Montreal Protocol (see June 10 issue). Furthermore, the president stated that unless there is no other option to generate electricity, the United States would no longer finance new coal plants overseas that do not deploy carbon capture technology and urged other countries to do the same.

Insurance Industry Concerned about Costs from Extreme Weather, Climate Change
The Geneva Association, an insurance industry think tank, released research highlighting the threat of warming oceans and climate change to the insurability of catastrophic risk in some areas. The Association also held a conference in London, focusing on how governments and the insurance industry can partner to mitigate damages from natural disasters. “Given that energy from the ocean is a key driver of extreme events, ocean warming has effectively caused a shift towards a ‘new normal’ for a number of insurance-relevant hazards,” said John Fitzpatrick, secretary general of the Geneva Association. In addition to pointing out that volatility of climate-related events makes the pricing of insurance difficult and risky for insurers, the report highlights three main areas in which the risk of ocean damage is increasing. First, continental ice melt is increasing the volume of ocean water on the planet, accelerating sea level rise and flooding. Second, as the ocean warms, precipitation levels change. Third, the effects of climate change on large-scale climate phenomena such as El Nino, the North Atlantic Oscillation or monsoon systems, is unknown. The report urges insurers to develop modernized risk estimation methods and suggests public-private partnerships as a means to strengthen community resilience and infrastructure.
For additional information see: Financial Times, Insurance Journal, Study
Sharp Reductions in HFCs Can Avoid Up to Half a Degree of Warming by 2100
A study published June 26 in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics calculates that phasing down hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) can avoid up to 0.5 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100. “Our calculations show that controlling HFC growth can avoid a significant amount of warming in this century, at least comparable to CO2 mitigation at 2050, and almost 50 percent of CO2 mitigation by 2100,” stated lead author Yangyang Xu, climate researcher at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego. HFCs are a small contributor to warming today, but are the fastest growing greenhouse gases in many countries, including the United States, European Union, China and India. “The findings of our study provide even greater justification for phasing-down HFCs under the Montreal Protocol.” stated co-author Durwood Zaelke, president of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development. “It’s the biggest, fastest, and cheapest climate mitigation available to the world today. The prominence that the President gave HFCs in his speech and climate plan makes it clear he will be continuing his personal diplomacy to ensure a swift victory under the Montreal Protocol.”
For additional information see: Scripps Press Release, IGSD Press Release, Study
Poll Finds Strong Support for Carbon Regulations
The Georgetown Climate Center released a poll June 24 that found 87 percent of Americans support Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This includes 78 percent of Republicans and 94 percent of Democrats. Vicki Arroyo, executive director of the Georgetown Climate Center, stated, “Polling that we are releasing today shows that Americans want the Administration to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from power plants and to take steps to protect future generations from the worst climate change impacts.”
In related news, the Small Business Majority published a poll on June 25 showing that nearly 6 in 10 small businesses believe that climate change and extreme weather events are an urgent problem that can harm the economy and small businesses in particular. The study also found that 42 percent of small businesses believe the Small Business Administration should track claims related to extreme weather events to increase government aid to small businesses. A similar poll released by the American Sustainable Business Council found that 63 percent of small businesses support carbon dioxide regulations by the EPA on existing power plants.
Study: Government Underfunding Climate Resilience
On June 19, the Center for American Progress (CAP) published a report concluding that from 2011 to 2013 the federal government spent six times more on disaster relief than resilience efforts to protect communities. The report, titled “Pound Foolish: Federal Community-Resilience Investments Swamped by Disaster Damages,” estimates that the federal government spent about $136 billion on disaster relief compared to only $22.4 billion on resiliency programs. The report recommends assessing local preparedness needs and creating a fund to support resiliency programs that protect communities from natural disasters and extreme weather events. The report states, “Revenue that should be targeted to resilience is too often diverted to disaster recovery or falls victim to shortsighted austerity measures such as the budget sequester. The federal government could save additional lives and money by increasing assistance to communities to help them address their resilience needs.”
For additional information see: Los Angeles Times, The Hill, CAP Report
Assessment of Geologic Carbon Dioxide Storage Potential Released by Dept. of Interior
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) released its first ever detailed assessment of America’s capacity for technically accessible geologic carbon sequestration on June 26. According to the research, the United States has the potential to store 3,000 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) in geologic basins throughout the country. The assessment examined the storage potential of 36 basins across the United States, finding that the Coastal Plains region holds about 65 percent of America’s CO2 sequestration capacity. Alaska and the Rocky Mountains were also found to have significant capacity. For reference, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that in 2011, the United States emitted 5.5 gigatonnes of energy-related CO2.
For additional information see: DOI Press Release, Study
Note: I recall that the cost of capturing and storing CO2 from a coal-fired power plant can be of the order of $30-40/ton of CO2 - raising the price of electricity by 3-4 cents per kWh.  Once the CO2 has been diluted to about 0.04% in the atmosphere (400 ppm), the cost of capture and storage by chemical and physical processes goes up to about $1000/ton  ($1/kWh).

The U.S. and China Agree to Further Climate Protection
The U.S.-China Working Group on Climate Change, set up in April during Secretary of State John Kerry’s first visit to China (see April 22 issue), announced agreement on July 10 on five new initiatives to jointly reduce greenhouse gases and air pollution. Implementation plans are to be completed by October 2013. The new US-China initiatives are: reducing black carbon and other emissions from heavy-duty trucks and vehicles; demonstrating carbon capture, utilization, and storage; increasing energy efficiency in buildings, industry and transport; strengthening capacity for collection and management of greenhouse gas data; and collaborating on smart grid systems, deploying renewable and clean energy, and improving demand management. The U.S.-China partnership also is working to implement the June agreement by President Obama and President Xi Jinping to phase down hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) under the Montreal Protocol (see June 10 issue). "The US-China initiatives will produce fast mitigation from cuts to HFCs and black carbon, two climate pollutants that clear out of the atmosphere quickly and produce quick cooling. The initiatives also will produce longer term mitigation by cutting carbon dioxide, and by pursuing carbon capture, utilization, and storage projects," said Durwood Zaelke, president of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development. The high level meeting included the Secretaries of State, Energy, Treasury, Transportation, and Commerce, as well as officials from the White House.
For additional information see: State Dept. Fact Sheet, Washington Post, IGSD Press Release
Rate of Global Warming Increased from 2000-2010
A report released July 3 by the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO) concludes that the rate of global warming has accelerated in recent decades. The report, “The Global Climate 2001-2010, A Decade of Climate Extremes,” analyzed global and regional temperature trends and found that 2001-2010 was the warmest decade for land and ocean surface temperatures in both hemispheres. Average global temperatures were 0.21 degree Celsius warmer this past decade than from 1991 to 2000. WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud stated, “The decadal rate of increase between 1991-2000 and 2001-2010 was unprecedented. Rising concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases are changing our climate, with far-reaching implications for our environment and our oceans.”
For additional information see: BBC, Bloomberg, AP
United Church of Christ Divests from Fossil Fuels
On July 3, the United Church of Christ became the first American religious body to divest its pension funds and investments from fossil fuel companies due to climate change concerns. The divestment will occur in stages over the next five years, although the church left open the possibility of keeping some investments if the companies meet certain standards. The United Church of Christ is a Protestant church with approximately 1.1 million members. Its campaign to divest from fossil fuels was led by the Rev. Jim Antal, who is president of the Massachusetts Conference of the United Church of Christ.
In related news, two major financial institutions have also announced their divestment from fossil fuel companies. The largest bank in the Netherlands, Rabobank, will cease lending to companies or landowners that extract natural gas through hydraulic fracturing. Storebrand, a major Norwegian pension fund, has sold its investments in 13 coal producers and the six oil companies most heavily involved in tar sands. Both banks cited long-term financial risks connected to climate change as reasons for divestment.
For additional information see: AP, Sustainable Business
IMF Director Says that Climate Action Will Create Jobs
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde stated during an interview with MSNBC that climate change will transform economies around the world. She noted that these transformations would include disasters brought about by climate change, but also said, “There will be areas of growth. You talk about green growth – that will be associated with particular jobs for which the training has not yet been invented and needs to be aggregated and put together.”
For additional information see: International Business Times
Hurricane Frequency and Strength to Increase with Climate Change
A new study published July 8 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences concludes that tropical cyclones are likely to become stronger and more frequent with climate change. The study finds that the world could experience up to 20 more hurricanes and tropical storms annually by the end of the century. The study disputes previous reports, including a 2012 paper from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, that predict a decrease in storm frequency as climate change makes individual storms more powerful. Study author Kerry Emanuel, professor of meteorology at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, used six high-resolution climate models to simulate 600 storms each year from 1950 and 2005 and then project global hurricane activity out to 2100.
For additional information see: USA Today, TIME, Study
Ocean Acidification Impacts Entire Marine Ecosystems
Ocean acidification has farther reaching effects on marine ecosystems than previously realized, according a study published July 8 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Researchers compared ecosystems in low, high, and extremely high areas of acidity by a volcano vent in Italy. They found that the low acidity areas had much higher concentrations of biodiversity. Urchins and grazing animals were not common in the higher acidity areas, and those that were present in the higher acidity areas did not consume the algae. Lead author Dr. Kristy Kroeker, marine biologist at the University of California, Davis, explained, “The background, low-grade stress caused by ocean acidification can cause a whole shift in the ecosystem so that everything is dominated by the same plants, which tend to be turf algae.” Approximately 30 percent of anthropogenic carbon released into the atmosphere has been absorbed by the oceans.
For additional information see: The Daily Climate, UC Davis News, Study
Communities of Color Disproportionately Impacted by Urban Heat Islands
Minority populations are more likely than others to live in dangerous “urban heat islands,” according to a study published July 1 in Environmental Health Perspectives. Urban heat islands occur in neighborhoods that have large amounts of asphalt, cement and roofing that absorb heat and lack trees to shade people and infrastructure. During heat waves, urban heat islands can be as much as five to 10 degrees warmer than other areas. Researchers compared the locations of heat islands to census data and found that, compared to whites, blacks are 52 percent more likely to live in an urban heat island, while Asians are 32 percent more likely, and Latinos are 21 percent more likely. These results can have important implications for how communities address the increased heat risks that are associated with climate change. Co-author Dr. Rachel Morello-Frosch, professor of environmental science, policy and management at the University of California, Berkeley noted, “Efforts to minimize heat risks in cities need to be more attuned to the racial disparities we see on a national scale. We need to make sure that any heat mitigation strategies really focus on the most vulnerable communities.”
For additional information see: Los Angeles Times, Study
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Monday, June 17, 2013

CLIMATE CHANGE NEWS FOR JUNE 2013


CC NEWS FOR JUNE 2013

The Summer 2013 issue of earthwise from the Union of Concerned Scientists has an article on sea level rise titled, Rising seas represent a costly threat.  It says:

By sharply reducing global warming emissions, we can help limit the pace of sea level rise - and the costs to coastal communities of adapting to it.
  • About 3.7 million people in the contiguous United States live less than 3.3 feet above high tide levels. Scientific research projects that seas are most likely to rise one to four feet above current levels by the end of the century, but could rise higher. 
  • A rise of just two feet could put more than $1 trillion in U.S. property and structures - roughly half of which is concentrated in Florida - at risk of inundation. 
  • Sea level has already risen 30 inches in Virginia Beach, VA, since 1880 due in part to land subsidence. In nearby Norfolk, a naval base is replacing 14 of its piers - at $60 million each - to protect ship repair facilities over the next few decades. 
On April 14 the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) posted a Fact Sheet titled, Biggert Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act of 2012: Impact of National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) Changes.  It is very informative.  Since most private insurance companies stopped providing flood insurance by 1968, Congress created the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which  “ ... was designed to incorporate community adoption of minimum standards for new construction and development to minimize future risk of flood damage. Pre-existing homes and businesses, however, could remain as they were. Owners of many of these older properties were eligible to obtain insurance at lower, subsidized rates that did not reflect the property’s true flood risk. (emphasis added)
In addition, as the initial flood risk identified by the NFIP has been updated, many homes and businesses that had been built in compliance with existing standards have received discounted rates in areas where the risk of flood was revised. This “Grandfathering” approach prevented rate increases for existing properties when the flood risk in their area increased.
After 45 years, flood risks continue and the costs and consequences of flooding are increasing dramatically. In 2012, Congress passed legislation to make the NFIP more sustainable and financially sound over the long term.” In order to bring the insurance payments to the government in line with its payouts after floods, those with subsidized insurance will see increases in premiums of as much as 25% per year until their payments cover the full risks to their property.  Risk tables with full risk rates are should be available in June 2013.  For the Fact Sheet see: http://www.fema.gov/national-flood-insurance-program/flood-insurance-reform-act-2012
On April 16 the Union of Concerned Scientists posted an article titled, Infographic: Sea Level Rise and Global Warming, with a lot of good information and graphics on global warming a s sea level rise.  Global average sea level rise (SLR) during the past century has been about 8 inches, with about half of that from warming and expanding sea water and about half from the melting of ice on land.  Local SLR relative to the land at the coast has been much more or less than the global average during the century - depending on whether the land is sinking or rising - from 46 inches at Grand Isle, LA and 14 inches at New York City to 4 inches at Los Angeles. Recent satellite and tide gauge measurements show that the global average rate is increasing as the world warms. Projections for future SLR depend both on how fast heat is added to the climate system and to how that heat is distributed between heating ocean and melting ice on land.  At: http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/infographic-sea-level-rise-global-warming.html  The science behind SLR is described in a related report titled, Causes of Sea Level Rise: What the Science Tells Us.  Two of its findings are:
  • The most vulnerable coastal communities may increasingly need to consider the stark option of some form of retreat from the rising seas.
  • To limit the long-term risks of sea level rise and the costs of adapting to it, we must work toward deep reductions in the global warming emissions that are the primary cause of rising sea levels.
On May 17 Ira Glass broadcast This American Life from WBEZ for Pubic Radio International.  The program, which lasted for an hour, was called 495: Hot in My Backyard and is well worth hearing.  The three main sections involve conversations with the Colorado state climatologist, a conservative Republican who used to be a member of Congress from South Carolina until he said he believed in climate change, and Bill McKibben, a writer and environmental activist who founded 350.org.  The whole program is available at: 

On May 7 Jennifer Ludden of NPR News (WBUR Radio in Boston) broadcast a piece titled, Filling In The Gap On Climate Education In Classrooms.  In it she describes the work of the Alliance for Climate Education (ACE), which has made multimedia presentations on climate change to more than a million high school students in the last few years.  The article says, “ACE aims to fill a big gap. Polls show most U.S. students learn little about climate change at school, and even many adults have a fuzzy notion of what causes it.”  Matt Lappe, ACE's education director, says, "They're going to be the generation to feel the impacts [of climate change] hardest and first.  And so in some sense we target high-schoolers, and young people in general, because they really have a right to know climate science."  A 4-minute audio recording is available at: http://www.wbur.org/npr/181899846/filling-in-the-gap-on-climate-education-in-classrooms
On May 20 Sennator Sheldon Whitehouse gave a 15.7-minute speech on the floor of the U.S. Senate titled, Like It or Not, We’re All in This Together, asking his Republican colleagues to stop denying climate change and stop supporting fossil fuel interests to the detriment of the country - and eventually the Republican Party.  At: http://act.forecastthefacts.org/signup/sheldon_whitehouse_together/?akid=68.42366.nXwmku&rd=1&t=3
On May 21 the National Academies Press released a report titled, Overcoming Barriers to Electric Vehicle Deployment: Interim Report (2013).  It describes the progress so far of a committee looking at barriers to the widespread use of Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PEVs) - both Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs).  BEVs have batteries as their sole on-board energy source, while PHEVs have a liquid fuel - usually gasoline - to supplement the energy stored in the battery, making longer trips possible before recharging with electricity from the grid.  Both currently have higher purchase prices than conventional vehicles, but have a number of benefits, including lower “fuel” costs and  lower pollution, including carbon emissions.  
On May 22 Brad Johnson at Forecast The Facts sent me an email about the EF5 tornado that devastated Moore, OK, including destroying two elementary schools full of kids, most of whom survived.  The Forecast the Facts team asked Kevin Trenberth, who studies the influence of climate change on extreme weather as head of the Climate Analysis Section at the US National Center for Atmospheric Research, to help them understand the complex science of tornadoes and the ethical implications of climate change and the pollution that causes it.  He said,
 “There is no doubt that humans are changing the weather, mainly through changes in the atmospheric composition from burning fossil fuels.  The resulting global warming is clearly evident in temperature increases, melting glaciers and Arctic sea ice, rising sea levels, and changes to more extreme rain storms.  Stronger drought, heat waves and wild fires are also a result.
“Tornadoes are very much a weather phenomenon. They come from certain thunderstorms, usually super-cell thunderstorms that are in a wind shear environment that promotes rotation.
“The main climate change connection to tornadoes is via the basic instability of the low level air that creates the convection and thunderstorms in the first place. Warmer and moister conditions are the key for unstable air. So there is a chain of events and climate change mainly affects the first link: the basic buoyancy of the air is increased. Whether that translates into a super-cell storm and one with a tornado is largely chance weather.
“We understand to some degree how the weather is changed from human activities but the weather and climate system are complex, there is a tremendous amount of natural variability, and it is easy for the human influences to be overwhelmed.  We still expect seasons, hot and cold spells, droughts and floods, but the odds are changing in favor of more extreme events.   (bold italics added for emphasis)
“The human-induced climate change is thought of as a great geophysical experiment, but one which we are not carrying out on purpose.  It would be unethical to run any such experiment without the consent of all affected. Yet this is what we are really doing, because we now know enough to know that this experiment is underway.”
A May 28 post on the Opinion Pages of the NY Times by Clive Hamilton is titled, Geoengineering: Our Last Hope, or a False Promise?  Hamilton is a professor of public ethics at Charles Sturt University and the author of the recently published book, Earthmasters: The Dawn of the Age of Climate Engineering.  He describes the ethical issues involved in engineering solutions to global warming, such as spreading sulfate particles in the upper atmosphere to reflect sunlight out into space or adding iron to the oceans to promote growth of green phytoplankton that take up CO2 for photosynthesis.  There are problems such as Who controls the global thermostat? or What if dropping the temperature by geoengineering improves U.S. agriculture but interferes with the Indian monsoon - causing the starvation of millions?  Is geoengineering just an excuse for not changing our wasteful fossil-fuel burning lifestyle?  At: 

Bloomberg News for June 3 had an article by Alex Morales titled, Fair Climate Fix Gives U.S. Three Times Effort Assigned to China.  It describes work by the Stockholm Environmental Institute to define each nation’s fair share of reductions in emissions needed to avoid serious climate disruption.  Using its methodology, which included each country’s past emissions, the reductions assigned to various nations are: USA, 29.1%; EU, 22.9%; China, 10.9%; Japan, 6.6%; Russia, 4.3%; India, 1.2%; and South Africa, 1.1%.  At: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-03/climate-fix-that-s-fair-assigns-u-s-three-times-chinese-effort.html

The June 10 NY Times had an article by Justin Gillis titled, What to Make of a Warming Plateau, pointing out that the rate of warming of the earth’s surface during the last 15 years has not been as large as expected, based on the preceeding decades.  Two possible explanations are the cooling effect of sulfate particles put into the atmosphere by Chinese coal burning with little acid gas emission control and movement of heat from the ocean’s surface water into the deep ocean.  We really need to know the difference between the heat absorbed by the earth’s land, ocean, atmosphere and ice and the energy radiated out into space in the infrared.  At: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/11/science/earth/what-to-make-of-a-climate-change-plateau.html?src=recg

The following items are from the Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI), Carol Werner, Executive Director. Past issues of its newsletter are posted on its website under "publications"
 at http://www.eesi.org/publications/Newsletters/CCNews/ccnews.htm
 
EESI’s newsletter is intended for all interested parties, particularly the policymaker community. 


Study Finds 97 Percent of Journal Articles over 20 Years Conclude Climate Change is Human-Caused

A study published May 15 in Environmental Research Letters concludes that 97.1 percent of peer-reviewed journal articles find that climate change is human-caused. The study reviewed almost 12,000 studies related to climate change published from 1991-2011. Of the more than 4,000 articles that examined the causes of climate change, only 83 concluded that climate change was not human-induced. These results align closely with a paper published in Science in 2004, which used a different methodology, but also found that 97 percent of peer-reviewed articles concluded that there was an anthropogenic element to climate change. The authors conducted the study to address public misconceptions about climate change. “There is a strong scientific agreement about the cause of climate change, despite public perceptions to the contrary. [. . . ] When people understand that scientists agree on global warming, they're more likely to support policies that take action on it,” explained lead author, Dr. John Cook, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Queensland in Australia.
For additional information see: Guardian, Reuters,Study

GAO: Local Governments Need More Guidance from Feds to Prepare Infrastructure for Climate Change

In a Congressionally requested study, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) suggests that the federal government needs to offer better guidance to help local communities prepare for climate adaptation. The report states, “[A] range of studies and local decision makers GAO interviewed cited the need for the federal government to improve local decision makers’ access to the best available information to use in infrastructure planning.” The report finds that local governments regularly fail to incorporate climate change information into infrastructure planning, often because they lack resources, climate knowledge, or immediate experience with climate disasters. Although the GAO found that there are currently some federal programs in place to begin addressing climate and infrastructure issues, more needs to be done to provide accessible and coordinated information that local governments can put to use. The GAO recommends that the White House designate the Global Change Research Program or another federal office to work with agencies to identify the best available data about local climate impacts for infrastructure planners. In addition, the report requests that the Council on Environmental Quality provide guidance about the inclusion of climate change impacts as part of the analysis required for federal actions under the National Environmental Policy Act.
For additional information see: GAO Report, The Hill

Australia’s Carbon Price Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Increasing Renewable Energy

Since the introduction of Australia’s carbon fee in July 2012 –set initially at a fixed price of $23 per tonne (see July 2, 2012 issue) – carbon emissions from the electricity sector have fallen 7.7 percent. Electricity produced by highly-polluting brown coal power plants has fallen 14 percent and generation from black coal is down 4.7 percent, while on the other hand, renewable electricity generation – including hydropower – has increased 28 percent. “This change in fuel mix means cleaner electricity is being delivered to households and business,” said Greg Combet, Australian Minister for Climate Change. Analysts note that this change in the country’s energy mix is also partly attributable to factors such as flooding at a coal power plant last year and an increase in natural gas generation. Australia still generates most (74.7 percent) of its electricity from coal, although the amount has dropped 4.4 percent since implementation of the carbon price.
For additional information see: The Age

Insurance Industry Sees Economic Risk from Climate Change

As a matter of financial sustainability, the insurance industry incorporates climate change and increasing severe weather events into its risk and planning models. Furthermore, insurance companies are comfortable with the science behind climate change and with acknowledging that climate change is human-caused. Frank Nutter, president of the Reinsurance Association of America explained that, “Insurance is heavily dependent on scientific thought. It is not as amenable to politicized scientific thought.” At an EESI briefing in December 2012, Nutter spoke about the effect of extreme weather events on the insurance and reinsurance industry, noting that 10 of the 12 most costly hurricanes in insurance history (adjusted for inflation) occurred in the past eight years (2004-2012), and that approximately 50 percent of costs from hurricanes are picked up by the reinsurance industry (see briefing summary).
In related news, an analysis performed by the National Resources Defense Council (NRDC) concluded that responding to damages from extreme weather events in 2012 cost U.S. taxpayers almost $100 billion and private insurers $33 billion.

For additional information see: New York Times, NRDC Paper

Extreme Weather and Climate Change Displaced More Than 32 Million People Last Year

A report released May 15 by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre finds that more than 32 million people in 82 countries were displaced by climate- and weather-related disasters in 2012, nearly twice as many as in 2011. Hurricane Sandy was the third largest displacement event in 2012 – following typhoons and massive flooding events in China and India – forcing 776,000 people to leave their homes. The report states, “The USA was among the ten countries worldwide with the highest displacement levels in 2012. Months before Hurricane Sandy, Hurricane Isaac displaced 60,000 people in August. Widespread forest fires forced over 39,000 people to evacuate their homes.”
For additional information see: The Hill, Report

Ancient Arctic Much Warmer than Today

A report published May 9 in the journal Science finds that the Arctic climate was significantly warmer and wetter millions of years ago, providing insight into the possible effect of global warming on the region. Researchers studied a 1,000-foot ice core taken from the Russian Arctic that provides a record of the climate over the past 3.6 million years, revealing that until 1.4 million years ago, the region was 14 degrees warmer than it is currently. However, the carbon dioxide levels during that time period were roughly the same as they are today, at 400 parts per million. “Our data is supporting the notion that carbon dioxide in the Pliocene must have been similar to what it is today,” explains lead author Julie Brigham-Grette, professor of geology at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. Brigham-Grette continued, “There are sites all over the Arctic that have little pieces of information. [. . .] All these little pieces of information tell us that the Arctic had tremendous forest cover in the past.”
For additional information see: Christian Science Monitor, Study

One-Third of Animals and Half of Plants under Threat from Climate Change

A study published May 12 in Nature Climate Change found that a significant portion of common plants and animals around the world are at risk due to climate change. Researchers looked at the effects of rising warming levels on 50,000 species, and found that approximately 57 percent of plants and 34 percent of animals could lose at least half of their habitable terrain by 2080. The worst effects are likely to be experienced in sub-Saharan Africa, Central America, the Amazon region, and Australia; these areas could lose the majority of their current plant and animal life. Even in less heavily affected regions, there is the possibility for significant loss. Spruce, fir, and aspen forests in Minnesota, for example, could move north into Canada if warming continues on the projected path. However, the researchers conclude that if peak emissions are reduced by 2030, 40 percent of global loss could be prevented.
For additional information see: Los Angeles Times, BBC, Study

Study Finds Methane Emissions to Be Higher than Previously Reported

A study published May 11 in the journal Atmospheric Environment finds that methane emissions in the United States are higher than previously believed. The study was led by Dr. Ira Leifer, researcher at University of California Santa Barbara, who drove 4,500 miles across the continental United States and took 6,600 measurements with a gas chromatograph to determine the source and strength of emissions. Refineries, wildfires, oil and gas production, and a coal loading terminal were found to be major point sources of methane. “Methane is the strongest human greenhouse gas on a political or short timescale, and also has more bang for the buck in terms of addressing climate change,” said Leifer. “This research supports other recent findings suggesting that fugitive emissions from fossil fuel industrial activity actually are the largest methane source. This clearly indicates a need for efforts to focus on reducing these methane emissions.”
For additional information see: ScienceDaily, Study

Note: I am concerned that fracking of shale for natural gas may be a significant source of fugitive methane emissions.

CBO Assesses the Impacts of a Carbon Tax on the Economy and Environment

On May 22, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released a report detailing the effects a carbon tax could have on the U.S. economy. The report notes that much depends on how the tax is structured, stating, “The effects of a carbon tax on the U.S. economy would depend on how the revenues from the tax were used.” The report concludes that without incorporating how the revenue is used, a carbon tax would increase fossil fuel prices and in turn, increase the costs of goods across the economy, especially those that are fossil fuel intensive. The increased costs of fossil fuel would reduce their consumption and therefore improve public health, but would also have a negative effect on the economy and a disproportionate impact on low-income households. The report suggests that the negative economic effects could be mitigated or even reversed if the revenue is used to cut marginal income or payroll tax rates or reduce the federal deficit. The CBO also concludes that the costs of not implementing a carbon tax could be significant in the long run, stating, “[D]elays would increase the expected damage from climate change by increasing the risk of very costly, potentially even catastrophic, outcomes. [. . .] In general, the risk of costly damage is higher as the extent of warming increases and as the pace of warming picks up; thus, failing to limit emissions soon increases that risk.”
For additional information see: Wall Street Journal, The Hill, Report

Report: Britain Can Save $150 Billion through 2050 and Cut GHG Emissions by Investing in Clean Power

A report from the British Parliamentary Committee on Climate Change found that Britain could save $150 billion through 2050 by focusing energy development on clean technologies. The report concludes that clean energy investments will cost more than natural gas-fired plants upfront, but will produce significant financial benefits by the 2030s. Additionally, an emphasis on wind power, nuclear power, and carbon capture systems would still be financially beneficial even if significant natural gas resources are found in Great Britain over the next several years. Conservative Minister of Parliament Tim Yeo noted, “There has clearly been quite a big attempt to portray decarbonisation as a huge burden to the consumer. But this report provides a robust rebuttal to that argument on anything but a short-term basis.”
For additional information see: Bloomberg Businessweek, The Independent

Scientists Revise Projected Temperature Sensitivity to Carbon Dioxide Increase

A study published May 19 in Nature Geoscience revises the sensitivity of global temperatures to increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2). The study incorporates global temperature data over the past 10 years to model long-term equilibrium warming due to increased atmospheric CO2 emissions as well as near-term, transient temperature increases. The researchers find a doubling of CO2 would increase temperatures between 1.2 and 3.9 degrees Celsius over the long-term, skewed slightly lower than previous predictions of between 2.2 and 4.7 degrees Celsius. The researchers find the near-term warming could be 20 percent less than previously expected, at 1.3 degrees Celsius versus previous estimates of 1.6 degrees Celsius. While temperature increases have not kept pace with CO2 increases over the past decade, there are a number of factors involved, including the ocean absorbing a greater amount of heat (see April 8 issue). Study coauthor Jochem Marotzke, professor at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, cautions, “It is important not to over-interpret a single decade, given what we know, and don't know, about natural climate variability. Over the past decade the world as a whole has continued to warm but the warming is mostly in the subsurface oceans rather than at the surface.” Richard Allen, climate scientist at the University of Reading, said in reference to the new study, “With work like this our predictions become ever better.”
For additional information see: The Guardian, Reuters, Study

Sulfates Have Less of a Cooling Impact on the Climate Than Previously Thought

A study published May 10 in Science concludes that sulfates may not have as strong of a climactic cooling effect as previously believed. Current climate models typically include the process, by which sulfur dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels oxidize to produce sulfate aerosols. Sulfates reflect sunlight, cooling the atmosphere. Sulfates also influence cloud formation, which has additional climate impacts. However, these models do not account for a second pathway, in which sulfur dioxide oxidizes with bits of minerals, producing heavier sulfates that fall out of the atmosphere faster, and consequently reflect less light. A research team, led by scientists from the Max Planck Institute, concludes that this second pathway may be far more common than previously believed, and suggests that it consequently needs to be incorporated into climate models. The authors state, “Future aerosol cooling may be strongly overpredicted by current climate chemistry models.”
For additional information see: Max Planck Institute, Los Angeles Times, Study

Study Finds Heat Related Mortality to Increase with Climate Change

A May 19 article published in Nature Climate Change concludes that climate change could increase the number of heat-related deaths in New York City by 22 percent by the 2020s, and by as much as 91 percent by the 2080s. The researchers also found that even when warmer winters were taken into account, the overall temperature-related mortality rate would likely still rise by as much as 31 percent by 2080. Cities like New York are especially vulnerable to increasing temperatures due to the absorption of heat by the built infrastructure, which turn cities into “heat islands” and maintain warm temperatures at night. Study coauthor Dr. Patrick Kinney, professor of environmental health sciences at Columbia University, stated, “What our study suggests is that the heat effects of climate change dominate the winter warming benefits that might also come: climate change will cause more deaths through heat than it will prevent during winter.”
For additional information see: The Guardian, Time, Study

Most Countries Will Face Fresh Water Shortages Due to Climate Change

In the next two generations, most of the nine billion people living on Earth will face serious water shortages, due to the effects of climate change, pollution and resource depletion. Five hundred water experts put out a warning on May 17 that the world's water systems were approaching a tipping point which "could trigger irreversible change with potentially catastrophic consequences." The experts requested that governments begin conserving water, as people are removing such quantities from underground sources that it will take generations to be restored. Currently 4.5 billion people around the world live near "impaired" water sources – meaning they are already dealing with wells that are running dry or water that is too polluted to use. If this issue is not addressed, millions more could experience water scarcity.
For additional information see: The Guardian

Federal Agencies Increase the Social Cost of Carbon

A new report released May 31 by the Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon has revised the estimated social cost of carbon dioxide (CO2) used by the U.S. government in economic analyses to $36 per ton in 2013, up from previous federal estimates of $22 per ton. This is part of a scheduled 2013 update to an original 2010 government report that put a social price on CO2 emissions. The costs were revised higher due to new climate models, which predict that climate change will cause greater damage from sea level rise and greater agriculture losses than earlier models had shown. Ari Isaacman Astles, assistant press secretary for the Office of Management and Budget, explains, “These updated values are well within the range of mainstream estimates. Indeed, similar estimates are used by other governments, international institutions, and major corporations.”
For additional information see: Bloomberg BNA, Washington Post, Report

U.S. Forest Service: Climate Change Causing Longer Fire Seasons

Thomas Tidwell, chief of the United States Forest Service, addressed the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources on June 4, stating that the average U.S. wildfire season lasts two months longer and fires burn twice as much land as compared to 40 years ago. Tidwell ascribed this to hotter and drier conditions related to climate change. He explained, “Ten years ago in New Mexico outside Los Alamos we had a fire get started. Over seven days, it burned 40,000 acres. In 2011, we had another fire, Las Conchas. It also burned 40,000 acres. It did it in 12 hours.” Longer wildfire seasons are a substantial economic challenge for the Forest Service, which is already facing budget constraints.
For additional information see: The Guardian

Study: Earth “Very Likely” to Warm More than Two Degrees Celsius by End of Century

A study published May 26 in Nature Climate Change concludes that if current greenhouse gas emissions trends continue, the Earth will likely warm more than two degrees Celsius, but not more than six degrees Celsius, by 2100. Researchers used historical measurements of carbon dioxide concentrations and global temperature observations to help reduce uncertainty of the future behavior of the carbon cycle – which according to study’s climate model, is the second most important contributor to uncertainty in temperature projections for the 21st century. “This study ultimately shows why waiting for certainty will fail as a strategy. Some uncertainty will always remain, meaning that we need to manage the risks of warming with the knowledge we have,” stated lead author Roger Bodman, a climate researcher at Victoria University.
For additional information see: Mongabay, The Conversation, Study

RGGI Auction Raises $124 Million

The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) quarterly auction on June 5 raised $124.5 million, the largest amount to date. A total of 38.8 million carbon allowances sold for $3.21 each, compared to $2.81 last quarter. Collin O'Mara, chair of RGGI and secretary of Delaware's Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control, stated, “With 20 auctions completed, RGGI continues to generate hard data showing that market-based emission reduction programs are an effective way to realize environmental goals, save consumers money, and create jobs. [. . . ] Delaware's reinvestment of auction proceeds in energy efficiency programs has not only avoided carbon pollution, but helped businesses and families reduce their electricity bills, and workers find jobs weatherizing homes, retrofitting outdated industrial equipment, and constructing more energy-efficient buildings.” In February, RGGI members announced a 45 percent reduction in the carbon cap starting in 2014 (see February 11 issue).
For additional information see: Sustainable Business

California Cut Black Carbon Concentrations 90 Percent Since 1966

In a study examining the impact of black carbon on climate in California, researchers found the state’s efforts to reduce air pollution, particularly from diesel engines, has reduced black carbon concentrations 90 percent since 1966. The three-year study – commissioned by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) and led by V. Ramanathan, distinguished professor of climate and atmospheric sciences at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography – concludes that black carbon reductions did not noticeably disrupt the lives of the citizens of California, but yielded substantial benefits to public health and emissions reduction. Concentrations have decreased 50 percent since the late 1980’s, equivalent to reducing 21 million tonnes of carbon dioxide annually or taking four million cars off the street every year. California’s controls on emissions from diesel engines beginning in the 1970’s were largely responsible for the reduction, although controls on other sources in the transport sector, as well as industrial sources and decreased burning of wood and waste, were also contributors. “We know that California’s programs to reduce emissions from diesel engines have helped clean up the air and protect public health,” said CARB Chair Mary Nichols. “This report makes it clear that our efforts to clean up the trucks and buses on our roads and highways also help us in the fight against climate change.” Durwood Zaelke, president of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development, said, “Reducing black carbon globally, along with other short-lived climate pollutants . . . can cut the rate of global warming in half and the rate of warming in the Arctic by two-thirds over the next few decades. California is the model mega cities of the world can use to clean up their deadly air pollution.”
For additional information see: San Francisco Chronicle, IGSD Press Release, Report

Bloomberg Releases $20 Billion Plan to Reduce New Yorkers’ Risk to Climate Change

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s administration released information on June 10 about the city’s increasing risk to climate change. The report projects that sea levels will rise four to eight inches by the 2020’s and estimates that more than 800,000 residents will live in the 100-year floodplain by the 2050’s – more than double the current estimate. The following day, Bloomberg revealed a $20 billion proposal to protect New York City from climate-related disasters. The plan, titled “the Special Initiative for Rebuilding and Resiliency,” would create new floodwalls, levees and surge barriers. The report details a total of 250 recommendations, including changes to city building codes and proposals to redevelop areas hit hardest by Hurricane Sandy. Bloomberg commented, “We can’t completely climate-proof our city. That would be impossible. But we can make our city stronger and safe – and we can start today.”

Mexico Releases National Climate Plan

On June 3, Mexico released a National Climate Change Strategy detailing how it will reduce greenhouse gas emissions 50 percent by 2050, as required under the 2012 National Climate Change Legislation. The cross-sector plan contains eight sections, including adapting cities and industries for climate change and extreme weather events, and reducing emissions from transportation, energy production, agriculture, and forestry. The plan will also gradually ensure the cost of fossil fuels and water includes their external environmental values, although the government will likely subsidize those extra costs for vulnerable populations. The government intends for the plan to strengthen Mexico’s clean energy economy, which currently accounts for 0.6 percent of the gross domestic product.
For additional information see: Sustainable Business, OOSKAnews

The bold emphasis above was added because of the critical importance of this feature - pricing fossil fuels to reflect their true cost to society.

Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Rise 1.4 Percent in 2012

The International Energy Agency (IEA) released a study June 10 reporting that the global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions rose to a record high of 31.6 billion tonnes in 2012, an increase of 1.4 percent from the prior year. The study concludes that if emissions continue to increase at this rate, global temperatures could increase up to five degrees Celsius (nine degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100, greatly exceeding what is considered to be a safe limit to avoid the worst climate impacts. IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven, said, “Climate change has quite frankly slipped to the back burner of policy priorities. But the problem is not going away – quite the opposite.” In order to limit global temperature increase to two degrees Celsius, the IEA proposed a number of policies titled “4-for-2 Degrees Celsius Scenario," as worldwide implementation of the suggestions by 2020 could cut the expected global temperature rises in half. The policies include: energy efficiency measures in buildings, limiting the construction and use of coal-fired power plants, cutting methane emissions in half and reducing fossil fuel subsidies. All of the suggestions deploy commercially-available technology.
For additional information see: Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Study

Climate Change Increases River Flood Risk in Asia, East Africa, Andes

A study published June 9 in Nature Climate Change found that climate change will increase the risk and frequency of river flooding in India, China, East Africa and the northern Andes. The climate impact on 29 river basins was based on estimates from 11 climate models, which predicted that a two degree Celsius rise in global temperature will mean 27 million people exposed to more floods, and a four degree Celsius rise will mean 62 million affected. The study also concluded 100-year floods will occur about every 10 to 50 years in the 21st century. Lead author Yukiko Hirabayashi, assistant professor of engineering at the University of Tokyo, stated, “Floods are among the most major climate-related disasters. In the past decade, reported annual losses from floods have reached tens of billions of U.S. dollars and thousands of people were killed each year.”
For additional information see: Agence France-Presse, NBC, Report


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New Castle County Congregations of Delaware Interfaith Power and Light