CLIMATE CHANGE NEWS

CLIMATE CHANGE NEWS FOR JANUARY 2012

2012-01-21T08:34:00.000-08:00

CC NEWS FOR JAN. 2012

The Dec. 20 issue of National Geographic Daily News has an article by Rick Lovett titled, Melting Glaciers Mean Double Trouble for Water Supplies. He writes, “Mountain glaciers long have been known to be in retreat as the planet warms. But the process is occurring even more rapidly than previously believed …” The article has lots of good information about global freshwater supplies and use. At: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2011/12/1112-melting-glaciers-mean-double-trouble-for-water-supplies

The Dec. 22 web issue of ScienceNews has an article by Devin Powell titled, Groundwater dropping globally. He reports recently published measurements of changes in groundwater around the globe, determined by GRACE satellites, which can measure small changes in gravity. It appears that groundwater is being pumped out for agriculture in many places at rates greater than it can be replaced by precipitation. Jay Famiglietti, a hydrologist at the UC Irvine, says, “Groundwater is being depleted at a rapid clip in virtually of all of the major aquifers in the world's arid and semiarid regions.” “Climate change will only worsen the problem.” At: http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/337097/title/Groundwater_dropping_globally

The National Academy of Sciences has produced a couple of excellent short (5-7 minute) videos summarizing reports titled, America’s Climate Choices – Advancing the Science of Climate Change, and America’s Energy Future. At: http://www.nasonline.org/news-and-multimedia/multimedia-gallery/nrc-americas-climate-choices.html and http://www.nasonline.org/news-and-multimedia/multimedia-gallery/nrc-america-s-energy-future.html

The Opinion Pages of the NY Times have an editorial for January 2 titled, Where the Real Jobs Are. The editorial points out that the number new jobs that could be provided by the Keystone XL pipeline, bringing tar sands bitumen from Canada to the Texas Gulf Coast, has been vastly overestimated by Republican House Speaker John Boehner (20,000) and presidential candidate Jon Huntsman (100,000). “A more accurate forecast from the federal government, one with which TransCanada, the pipeline company, agrees, says the project would create 6,000 to 6,500 temporary construction jobs at best, for two years.” The editorial points out that Republican efforts to stall or turn back clean energy development are costing far more permanent jobs and causing the U.S. to fall far behind other industrial countries that are making the transition to a clean energy future. At: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/02/opinion/where-the-real-jobs-are.html?_r=1&src=tp&smid=fb-share

Kathleen Moore and Michael Nelson published a really inspiring piece in Common Dreams on Jan. 3 titled, What is Morally Required? It says, in part, “So let us say it loud and clear: It's wrong to wreck the world. To take what we need for our comfortable lives and leave a ransacked and dangerously unstable world for the future is not worthy of us as moral beings. And when, to enrich a powerful few, rich nations threaten to disrupt forever the great hydrological and climatic cycles that support all the lives on Earth? This is moral monstrosity on a planetary scale. We have a responsibility, individual and collective, to leave a world as beautiful and life-sustaining as the world that has nourished us.” At: https://www.commondreams.org/view/2012/01/03-9
Kathleen Dean Moore and Michael P. Nelson are co-editors of Moral Ground: Ethical Action for a Planet in Peril, a call to climate action from nearly 100 of the world's moral leaders.

The NY Times for Jan. 7 had an editorial titled, One Bad Energy Subsidy Expires, saying that the 45¢ per gallon tax credit for oil companies to blend ethanol into gasoline has finally ended, saving taxpayers $5-6 billion per year. It boosted corn prices, deepened the budget deficit, and did little for the environment, since new land was cleared to replace the food lost to fuel production. Also (not mentioned) is the fact that a lot of fossil fuel is used to produce fertilizer to grow the corn and to distill the dilute solution of ethanol from fermentation up to a concentration where it will burn. Congress should now end the century+ subsidies to the oil industry that now cost about $4 billion a yr. The article says, “Congress should end the subsidies to Big Oil and redeploy the money saved to support truly new energy technologies, like wind and solar power, or even hi-tech biofuels that don’t harm the environment and threaten the food supply.” At: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/07/opinion/one-bad-energy-subsidy-expires.html

The Jan. 12 issue of Waste & Recycling News reported the release by the EPA of it new Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, which allows users to look at greenhouse gas emissions from thousands of large facilities across the country. Users can search by state, facility, industrial sector or the type of greenhouse gas. Power plants were the largest source of GHG emissions with 2,324 MT (megatons or million metric tons) of carbon dioxide equivalent released from 1,555 facilities in 2010. In my state, Delaware, about half of the power plant emissions (2.1 MT) were from the Indian River coal-fired plant in Dagsboro. U.S. landfills released 117 MT of carbon dioxide equivalent from 1,199 facilities, or about 3.6% of the total of all GHGs. In Delaware about a third of the landfill GHG (0.11 MT of CO2-eq) was methane from the large Cherry Island landfill in Wilmington. At: http://www.wasterecyclingnews.com/email.html?id=1326380858
[A ton of CO2-eq as methane is the mass of methane that will cause the same global warming over 100 years as a ton of CO2 – about 0.04 ton.]

On Jan. 15 the Associated Press in NJ.com posted an article titled, Firm set to move forward on offshore wind farm near Atlantic City. It said that Fishermen’s Energy of Cape May plans to install five 5 MW wind turbines 2.8 miles off the NJ coast – the first offshore wind turbines in the U.S. – to be operational in 2013. The Offshore Wind Economic Development Act, signed by NJ Governor Christie in August 2010, calls for 1,100 megawatts of wind energy by the end of 2012. At: http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/01/firm_set_to_move_forward_on_of.html
This us a big step forward for the U.S. Offshore wind has been generated in Denmark for over 20 years.

Sea level rise (SLR) is a growing concern for coastal states as its rate increases along with the increasing rate of loss of ice from Greenland and Antarctica. Maryland is ahead of many other states in its adaptation planning. In 2008 its Commission on Climate Change Adaptation and Response Working Group - supported by its Department of Natural Resources and Department of Planning - released a report titled, Comprehensive Strategy for Reducing Maryland’s Vulnerability to Climate Change Phase I: Sea-level rise and coastal storms. On page 8 it says, “Climate change, sea-level rise, and associated coastal storms are putting Maryland’s people, property, natural resources and public investments at risk.” At: http://www.dnr.state.md.us/coastsmart/pdfs/comprehensive_strategy.pdf

A comprehensive 2008 maryland Climate Action Plan, including targets and a timetable for GHG emission reductions, and updates can be found at: http://search.maryland.gov/search?q=+climate+action+plan&site=Environment&entqr=0&ud=1&sort=date%3AD%3AL%3Ad1&output=xml_no_dtd&oe=UTF-8&ie=UTF-8&client=search_md_1&proxystylesheet=search_md_1

In October 2011 the Georgetown Climate Center issued a report by Jessica Grannis titled, Adaptation Tool Kit: Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Land Use - How Governments Can Use Land-Use Practices to Adapt to Sea-Level Rise. The Foreword says, “Rising sea levels in the foreseeable future present new challenges now for coastal land use planning. Local governments, which bear the largest responsibility for coastal planning, long have struggled with balancing strong demand for increasing development with protection of fragile environmental and cultural resources. State governments, too, have sometimes created special planning and regulatory bodies to address coastal issues at a larger scale. Now these same governments, in a time of diminished revenues, must consider the threats that substantial sea-level rise pose to current planning, existing development, and beleaguered ecological systems. These threats include inundation, flooding, enhanced storm surges, loss of infrastructure, destruction of wetlands and beaches, and increased risks for public health and safety. Although taking regulatory initiatives to adapt to predicted future threats can be difficult politically, it also can conserve resources, mitigate crises, and protect ecosystems.” This well-written Toolkit “provides local and state governments and their citizens with practical knowledge to help adapt to sea-level rise in a prudent and balanced manner.” It “offers a menu of generally used legal devices that can reduce future harms.” At: http://www.georgetownclimate.org/sites/default/files/Adaptation_Tool_Kit_SLR.pdf

The following items are from the Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI), Carol Werner, Executive Director. Past issues of its newsletter are posted on its website under "publications"  at http://www.eesi.org/publications/Newsletters/CCNews/ccnews.htm
EESI’s newsletter is intended for all interested parties, particularly the policymaker community.

Climate Change, Drought, Killing Millions of Trees World-Wide

On Monday, the Texas Forest Service released a statement reporting that 100 million to 500 million trees died during the 2011 state-wide drought. Ashe junipers, loblolly pines, cedars, and post oaks trees were among the hardest hit by the prolonged drought. 1.5 million trees in Texas also died in a 4 million acre wildfire that encompassed a large portion of the state, adding to the total amount of trees killed over a one-year period.   In related news, independent studies lead by scientists at the University of California – Berkeley and Stanford University find that a hotter climate, coupled with an increased number of prolonged droughts, are killing a large number of trees around the world. Trembling aspen trees are dying off in North America, due to several droughts between 2000 and 2004, and one in six trees in Africa have died from droughts between 1954 and 2002. “Rainfall in the Sahel has dropped 20-30 percent in the 20th century, the world’s most severe long-term drought since measurements from rainfall gauges began in the mid-1800s,” said Patrick Gonzalez, lead author on the study at University of California – Berkeley. “Previous research already established climate change as the primary cause of the drought, which has overwhelmed the resilience of the trees.”
For additional information see: Science Daily, Berkeley University, New York Times, Reuters, Washington Post

World Health Organization Declares Climate Change an Emerging Health Issue

At the United Nations Conference of Parties meeting in Durban, the World Health Organization (WHO) stated that effects of climate change are creating world-wide health issues, including increased bacterial diseases caused by contaminated water, increased asthma and heart attacks caused by ground-level ozone, and allergies brought on by changes in pollen. Various health professionals, advocates, and policy makers assembled in Durban on December 4 at the first Global Climate and Health Summit, and asked the United Nations to “recognize the health benefits of climate mitigation and take bold and substantive action to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions in order to protect and promote public health.” While attending the Global Climate and Health Summit, Dr. Rajen Naidoo of the Nelson Mandela Medical School in Durban said, "Just as the HIV epidemic caused us to have a reversal in recent gains in public health in this country, so too does climate change now."
For additional information see: Scientific American, Durban Declaration on Climate and Health

Study: Climate Change Shifts Global Ecosystems

A recent study by NASA reports that by 2100, global warming will convert nearly 40 percent of ecosystems from one type to another; converting forests to grasslands, and grasslands to deserts. The study also states that climate change will disrupt the balance between endangered species, and affect the world’s water, food, and energy supplies. "For more than 25 years, scientists have warned of the dangers of human-induced climate change," said Jon Bergengren, lead scientist on the study. "Our study introduces a new view of climate change, exploring the ecological implications of a few degrees of global warming. While warnings of melting glaciers, rising sea levels and other environmental changes are illustrative and important, ultimately, it's the ecological consequences that matter most." Researchers from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena found their results by using computer models to project 10 different climate simulations using data from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report.
For additional information see: Science Daily, Study

Report Finds ‘Ignorance is Bliss’ Regarding the Public and Climate Change Politics

A recent study in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology finds that people insulate their ignorance about a complex issue by deferring to government and scientists. Participants in the study rejected complex negative information and opted to rely on politicians to handle complicated issues. "Climate change is a global issue that, seemingly, is beyond the efforts of any one individual. . . . I think a lot of people feel unable to do anything about it," said Steven Shepherd, author of the report. "The next best thing is to either deny it, or defer the issue to governments to deal with it. . . . In our research we find that one easy way to maintain that psychologically comforting trust that an issue is being dealt with is to simply avoid the issue." Researchers also found that a person’s views change due to pressure from society, often changing their views to escape any stigma from one’s community.
For additional information see: E&E Publishing

South Florida Releases Climate Change Action Plan

On December 9, the South Florida Climate Change Compact released a climate change action plan that combines efforts from Monroe, Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties. The action plan is a result of various community leaders, scientists, and local residents working together over a two-year period to study potential impacts of climate change on the South Florida region. The plan recommends 100 various projects to improve local transportation and natural infrastructure, water, energy and fuel supplies over the next five years. “Southeast Florida is uniquely vulnerable to sea level rise, with very few areas of the country having as many economic assets at risk,” said Steve Adams, Climate Adaptation Senior Program Advisor for the Institute for Sustainable Communities. The compact includes 30 percent of Floridians, totaling 5.6 million people from 108 municipalities.
For additional information see: Miami Herald

India Refuses to Sign Agreement to Reduce Emissions

The Indian Government declared that they will not ratify a pact to reduce their country’s greenhouse gas emissions, stating that an agreement to do so would hurt the country’s economic development. Environment Minister Jayanthi Natarajan said, “There is no question of signing a legally binding agreement at this point of our development. We need to make sure that our development does not suffer. Our emissions are bound to grow as we have to ensure our social and economic development and fulfill the imperative of poverty eradication.”
For additional information see: The Pioneer

World Faiths Unite on Environmental Responsibility

A recent study by the Citizens Climate Lobby states that religious communities worldwide agree that humans need to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions to combat climate change. Lynn Whitney, head writer of the report, said that she was urged by her mother, retired biologist Ellie Whitney, and other members of the Citizens Climate Lobby to research different religious organizations views on climate change. “I think what surprised me the most was the general consensus from all the different religious groups. Among the Judeo-Christian groups, I was really surprised to find that evangelicals recognized that humans may have had something to do with causing climate change and should be involved in helping to mitigate the effects on those people most in need,” said Whitney.
For additional information see: Ashbury Park Press, Daily Record, Report, Citizens Climate Lobby

Research on Links Between Extreme Weather and Climate Change Face Budget Constraints

In 2011, the United States experienced twelve extreme weather events that caused at least $1 billion each in damages, together totaling over $50 billion. An average year sees only three or four such events, leaving researchers to explain 2011’s severity and determine if similar weather patterns can be expected in the future. NOAA, the National Science Foundation, and the Department of Energy all fund studies to better understand the causes of extreme weather events, including the effects of climate change. This research can help to improve short- and long-term forecasting of extreme events, but funding to do so is becoming elusive. Dr. Jane Lubchenco, the director of NOAA, cautions that shrinking budgets make it “more and more challenging to devote resources to many of our research programs.”
For additional information see: New York Times

California Proposes Advanced Clean Car Regulations

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) proposed a package of regulations that would reduce emissions 75 percent by 2025 and cut greenhouse gas emissions 52 million metric tons, by swapping out current automobiles for 1.4 million electric, plug-in hybrid and hydrogen-powered cars. "These rules will make California the advanced car capital of the world, driving the innovation, patents and technology that will generate thousands of jobs here, and set the stage for us to compete in the global clean car marketplace," said James Goldstene, Air Resources Board Executive Officer. The CARB says the new regulations will reduce greenhouse gases by more than 870 million metric tons through 2050, and create an additional 21,000 jobs in 2025, increasing to 37,000 new jobs in 2030.
For additional information see: Business Green

Report Lists Sweden, UK, and Germany as Top Countries Combating Climate Change

The Climate Change Performance Index 2012 lists Sweden, the United Kingdom (UK), and Germany as the countries doing the most to combat climate change. While the report leaves spots #1 - 3 blank, signifying that no country is fulfilling the necessary steps to limit global warming to below two degrees Celsius, Sweden, UK, and Germany were listed as #4 - 6. Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan and Iran were the last countries on the list. Germanwatch and Climate Action Network Europe (CAN Europe) compiled the Climate Change Performance Index 2012, listing the world's 58 biggest emitters of greenhouse gases. The organizations used a combination of total emissions, trends and an assessment of domestic actions to rank the countries that made the list.
For additional information see: Deutsche Welle

Natural Disasters in 2011 Set Record

Munich Re, the global reinsurance company, announced that 2011 was the costliest year on record from natural disasters at over $380 billion. This figure was largely driven by the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, but was buoyed by increases in climate-related disasters such as hurricanes, tornadoes, flooding and wildfires. Munich Re maintains a massive database of global natural disasters since 1980, and notes that climate-related disasters have steadily grown in number and intensity over that time. The company believes this to be further evidence of climate change. This continued trend, the company noted, could soon make property insurance in vulnerable areas prohibitively expensive or even uninsurable. Munich Re highlighted the United States, where homeowners last year collected $1.16 in insurance payouts for every $1 paid in premiums. Global insurance industry losses from natural disasters for the year came to $105 billion.
For additional information see: Science News, Reuters, Munich Re Presentation

EPA Publishes Interactive Map of Greenhouse Gas Emitters

On January 11, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released an interactive online map that identifies sources of major greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters in the United States, including chemical factories, paper mills, and power plants. The data, current through 2010, covers 80 percent of U.S. GHG emitters from large industries. Environmental groups are using the new online tool to highlight local and national utilities that have the worst emissions, and applaud the map as a major accomplishment that can educate government officials and members of the public about local sources of pollution. David Doniger, policy director for Climate and Clean Air at the Natural Resources Defense Council, said, “[the EPA database] means that every high school student or local reporter can see who the biggest carbon polluters are in his or her own backyard. . . Carbon pollution and climate change are very abstract when you’re dealing with national or international data. This brings it home.”
For additional information see: New York Times, EPA, Climate Progress

Climate Change Adversely Affecting North American Bird Population

Recent studies show that severe drought, a lack of available food, and a warming winter are killing off several species of North American birds throughout the United States and Canada. In Texas, endangered North American whooping cranes spend the winter in the Gulf of Mexico, gathering enough sustenance to sustain a 2,500 mile journey to their summer nesting grounds in Canada. Because of the record year-long drought in Texas and the Gulf of Mexico, the cranes are not finding enough food or water during their winter in the Gulf of Mexico, and are in danger of perishing on the return trip to Canada. Canadian Boreal ducks are also facing similar issues, with scaup and scoter duck populations dramatically decreasing by up to 60 percent in the last 30 years. Scientists at the University of British Columbia found that since the ducks’ wetland habitats were becoming warmer, spring was arriving 11 days earlier than when the ducks return from their winter migration south. "Because of climate change, the ducks don't have the food that they need when they need it," said Stuart Slattery, a research scientist with Ducks Unlimited Canada.   In related news, a decline in snowfall throughout the mountainous areas of Arizona is threatening five different species of American songbirds. Researchers at the US Geological Survey (USGS) and the University of Montana found that with less snow, the local elk population are staying longer at higher altitudes, and are consuming vegetation usually reserved for the songbirds. “The indirect effects of climate on plant communities may be just as important as the effects of climate change-induced mismatches between migrating birds and food abundance because plants, including trees, provide the habitat birds need to survive,” said Thomas Martin, lead author of the study and USGS biologist.
For additional information see: CBS News, CBC News, New York Times

Rising Sea Levels Endanger Nile Delta Region

A minuscule rise in sea levels could dramatically alter the Nile Delta landscape, putting large metropolitan cities like Alexandria, Port Said, and Damietta underwater. Over half of Egypt’s population live in the Nile Delta region, and any rise in sea levels, even less than ¼ of an inch, could displace millions of people from their homes and threaten the country’s agriculture. As sea levels rise, the saltwater invades the Delta’s fresh water aquifers, contaminating the fresh water supply for inhabitants and local crops.
For additional information see: Egypt Independent

China Considering Carbon Tax

Chinese officials are considering a carbon tax that would tighten regulations on industries and decrease China’s overall carbon footprint. China emitted 8.33 billion tons of carbon dioxide in 2011, representing 25 percent of emissions worldwide. The tax plan, to be implemented by 2015, would impose a tax rate of 10 yuan, (or $1.59,) for each ton of carbon dioxide a business discharges into the atmosphere. The rate would gradually increase over time, and tax cuts would be awarded to industries that take steps to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. Jia Kang, head of China’s Finance Ministry research center, said that the proposed carbon tax would have many benefits, including, “[raising] companies’ environmental costs and force them to improve their production technology.”
For additional information see: AFP, Financial Review, China Daily

Fast Action Climate Mitigation Measures Can Help Avoid 2°C Danger Limit

A new study in Science led by NASA scientist Drew Shindell identifies 14 fast action measures to reduce emissions of black carbon and ground-level ozone. These measures have the potential to deliver major benefits for climate, public health, and agriculture, and would prevent 0.5°C of warming by 2050—half of the warming otherwise expected. By implementing the climate mitigation measures, nations worldwide could save nearly five million lives per year, increase crop yields up to 135 billion metric tons, and reduce the rate of Arctic warming by two-thirds. “Because black carbon and ozone stay in the atmosphere only for a few hours to a few years, reducing these pollutants can immediately slow down climate change and some of its most harmful impacts while we continue to develop methods to reduce carbon dioxide,” says Durwood Zaelke, president of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development. The study analyzed over 400 control measures and selected 14 that use proven technologies that can be implemented cost-effectively.

For additional information see: NASA Study, Washington Post, AFP, Associated Press

Climate Change Likely to Delay Next Ice Age

Researchers warn that current levels of greenhouse gases (GHG) are not allowing the Earth to naturally cool in response to changes in orbital patterns. Though the natural heating and cooling cycle of the Earth would historically produce another ice age in 1,500 years, climate change would delay the next ice age by tens of thousands of years. Current ice sheets in Antarctica would continue to melt until the next cooling phase, adding to the rise of sea levels worldwide. Jim Channell, co-author of the report, said, “Ice sheets like those in western Antarctica are already destabilized by global warming. When they eventually slough off and become a part of the ocean’s volume, it will have a dramatic effect on sea level. . . considering the proportion of the world’s population that lives close to sea level, the implications of this sort of accelerated sea level rise are enormous.”
For additional information see: Reuters, Daily News and Analysis, Study, Voice of America

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Coalition for Climate Change Study and Action

CLIMATE CHANGE NEWS FOR DECEMBER 2011

2011-12-20T10:49:00.000-08:00

CC NEWS FOR DEC. 2011

On Nov. 30 the National Climate Ethics Campaign was launched with an announcement and meeting in Washington D.C. The Statement of Our Nation’s Moral Obligation to Address Climate Change says in part:
“Although reducing carbon pollution will have costs, it will also produce incalculable benefits. Our response must therefore be driven not solely by near-term economic or national self-interest. We must also acknowledge and act on our long-standing moral obligation to protect current and future generations from suffering and death, to honor principles of justice and equity, and to protect the great Earth systems on which the wellbeing of all life, including ours, depends.” You can find the full statement at: http://climateethicscampaign.org/statement/ and can sign on as an individual or the leader of an organization at: http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/NationalClimateEthicsCampaign
I have signed and hope you will too.

Science News for Dec. 2 has an article by Janet Raloff titled, Arctic has taken a turn for the warmer. She says that the Arctic is losing ice both on land and sea as air and water temperatures increase. The melting of floating ice doesn’t contribute to sea level rise directly, but it does contribute indirectly because it exposes areas of dark blue water that absorb more of the sun’s energy, speeding the rate of warming. She writes, “Sea-ice loss in 2011 was the second most severe in the 32-year satellite record of Arctic monitoring.” At: http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/336669/title/Arctic_has_taken_a_turn_for_the_warmer

The LA Times Greenspace posted an article on Dec. 8 titled, Advocacy group's extreme weather map brings climate change home. The report shows a new Natural Resources Defense Council interactive map of the U.S., showing the locations and types of over 2900 weather records broken during the period of January through October 2011. Records broken include temperature, rainfall, snowfall, flooding, drought and wildfire. An interesting feature of the map plays the records broken like a video. At: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/greenspace/2011/12/nrdc-extreme-weather-map-brings-climate-change-home.html

The December 17 issue of the NY Times has an article by Justin Gillis titled, As Permafrost Thaws, Scientists Study the Risks. It points out that bubbles of methane gas can be seen bubbling out of the lakes formed from melting permafrost ice. Radioactive dating of the carbon shows that it was last in the atmosphere tens of thousands of years ago, before the coldest part of the last great ice age. It comes from plants that captured carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and converted it into carbohydrates by photosynthesis. That biological material is rotting as the permafrost melts – just like food in your freezer will rot if it warms up. If there is a lack of oxygen, as there is in peat bogs or at the bottom of partly frozen lakes, methanogenic bacteria convert the carbohydrates into a mixture of carbon dioxide and methane – a much more powerful greenhouse gas. Its release into the atmosphere can accelerate the warming and the release of more methane, until the situation gets out of hand. Scientists estimate that the amount of carbon in the permafrost could be as much as 1700 billion tons – twice the amount that is currently in the atmosphere, The article says, “In the minds of most experts, the chief worry is not that the carbon in the permafrost will break down quickly — typical estimates say that will take more than a century, perhaps several — but that once the decomposition starts, it will be impossible to stop.” At: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/17/science/earth/warming-arctic-permafrost-fuels-climate-change-worries.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&hp

The following items are from the Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI), Carol Werner, Executive Director. Past issues of its newsletter are posted on its website under "publications"  at http://www.eesi.org/publications/Newsletters/CCNews/ccnews.htm
EESI’s newsletter is intended for all interested parties, particularly the policymaker community.

International Greenhouse Gas Emissions Goals Unlikely to Be Set in Durban

Nearly 200 nations began global climate discussions on Monday, November 28, in Durban, South Africa. The talks are the last chance to establish legally binding greenhouse gas emissions targets before the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012. European Union (EU) climate negotiators have called for a global deal on climate change mitigation to be reached by 2015 and in place by 2020. The EU expressed willingness to recommit to the Kyoto Protocol, but stated that the protocol will be effective only if other nations such as Russia, Japan, and Canada participate. The success of climate negotiations in Durban also depends on the United States and China, the world’s two top emitters, but both nations have consistently refused to commit to binding climate goals. The United Nations International Energy Agency says that current efforts of individual nations to mitigate climate change will not be enough to avoid a 2 degree Celsius rise in global average temperature. According to the agency, a comprehensive global treaty is necessary. The European Union, New Zealand, Australia, Norway and Switzerland may ratify a new deal on greenhouse gas emissions reductions in Durban, but the world’s top greenhouse gas emitters remain reluctant
For additional information see: Reuters, Reuters (2nd Article), Associated Press, Wall Street Journal

2011 One of the Hottest Years on Record

According to a new report by the World Meteorological Organization, or WMO, 2011 was one of the hottest years on record, and the hottest year on record with a La Nina event. According to the preliminary data, 2011 is only 12 (0.12) * degrees cooler than 2010, the hottest year on record. However, 2011 was the hottest year starting with La Nina, an upwelling of cooler water in the Pacific Ocean, which affects the weather patterns and typically lowers the global average temperature by 0.1 to 0.15 degrees. The largest variation from the average temperature was recorded in Russia, where temperatures were 4 degrees Celsius warmer from January to October. The report stated that this rise in temperature is caused by human activity, and it suggests that the earth is “rapidly approaching” a 2 to 2.4 degrees Celsius rise in temperature that would render the impacts of climate change dire and irreversible. "There is a consistent patter of a changing climate, with the last decade warmer than the previous one, and that decade warmer than the one before,” said Peter Stott of the UK Met Office, which provides climate data to the WMO. “There’s clearly a warming trend. That’s supported by other indicators such as disappearing Arctic sea ice, melting glaciers, and rising sea levels.”
For additional information see: Bloomberg, Reuters, Wall Street Journal, WMO Press Release Note: 2011 was 0.12°C cooler than 2010, according to Bloomberg.

China Reduces Carbon Intensity, Enforces Energy Efficiency

China’s energy intensity—or the rate of energy consumption relative to gross domestic product—dropped 19.1 percent from 2005 levels in the past year. In the past five years, China has seen an 11.2 percent increase in economic growth, but an annual energy consumption increase of just 6.6 percent. Between 2006 and 2010, China reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 1.5 billion tons. According to a press release from a research team from the Institute of Global Low-carbon Economy, University of International Business and Economics, and the Social Sciences Academic Press, this reduction in carbon emissions is largely due to strict and effective energy policies, including efforts to shut down inefficient power plants and increasing the energy efficiency of the heating supply network.
For additional information see: Shanghai Daily

Scientists Project Less Extreme Climate Change Scenario

A recent study by an international team of scientists lead by Andreas Schmittner of Oregon State University suggests that the impacts of climate change are not likely to be as extreme as previous studies project. Scientists predicted that a doubling of carbon dioxide (CO2) would cause a temperature rise of 1.7 degrees Celsius to 2.6 degrees Celsius. Using a computer model to formulate projections, researchers analyzed paleoclimate data that extends back 21,000 years, projecting that the temperature and sea level changes will not be as severe as the more pessimistic range of estimates presented by the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The authors of the study stressed that global warming is a serious issue and that there will be considerable climatic impacts as a result of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. In related news, a recent statement by a leading energy expert from the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggested that current global energy consumption levels could cause a temperature change of up to 6 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. According to the IEA’s analysis, current rates of fossil fuel consumption will lead to a two degree rise in temperature that will lead to irreversible changes to the earth’s climate systems, eventually causing a six degree Celsius rise in temperature.
For additional information see: Science Daily, BBC, Abstract

U.S. Experienced Record Amount of Weather Disasters in 2011

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recorded 12 separate U.S. weather disasters that each caused over $1 billion in damage in 2011. The list of extreme weather events include the drought in Texas, Hurricane Irene, and the flooding events in Mississippi. The weather disasters totaled over $52 billion in cumulative damages, with more than 1,000 casualties lost during the storms. “We have good reason to believe that what happened this year is not an anomaly, but instead is a harbinger of what is to come," NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco said in an interview. Not only are storms becoming more severe due to a warming climate, but there are more people living in areas in the U.S. that are prone to serious weather events. This list does not yet include damages for either Tropical Storm Lee or the Northeast snowstorm in October, but if the damages from either one of those storms climb over $1 billion, NOAA said they will be added to the list.
For additional information see: CBS News, Houston Chronicle, NPR, NOAA

Top Emitters Still Refusing to Reduce Carbon Consumption

At Durban, the European Union (EU) is urging a 2015 deadline to rework the Kyoto Protocol, and to update the Protocol to include the changing environmental impacts developing emerging countries. The Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012, leaving little time to create a new pact before it runs out, but the EU has stated that developing nations with substantial carbon emissions should still be held to emissions cuts. However, the world’s three largest emitters of CO2—China, the United States, and India—remain firm in their refusal to ratify an agreement to curb emissions. Chinese negotiators have stated that China is ready to consider emissions reductions, but have avoided specific obligations or plans. India claims that it is still behind China in economic development, and thus should not be held accountable for carbon cuts. Climate change mitigation in the United States has been inhibited by political wrangling over environmental legislation. Negotiators from the United States at Durban insisted that the United States will achieve its goal of reducing emissions by 17 percent from 2005 levels by the end of the decade, but no clear-cut plans have been made. Emissions from the United States, China, and India account for over half of global greenhouse gas emissions.
For additional information see: Reuters, EENews

Carbon Dioxide Emissions Spike After Financial Crisis

Worldwide carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions dropped in 2009 as a result of the global financial crisis (GFC), but emissions rebounded in 2010 according to a study supported by Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Total emissions increased from 8.6 billion tons in 2009 to 9.1 billion tons in 2010.* However, the study also showed that 2009 was the first year where consumption-based emissions were larger in developing countries than in developed countries. "Previously, developed countries released more carbon dioxide, but that's no longer true due to emerging economies in developing countries," said Tom Boden from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center." The GFC did not impact major developing countries, such as China and India, like it did the United States and the European nations." The study was published in Nature Climate Change.
For additional information see: Science Daily, New Scientist, Study Abstract
*Note: These numbers refer to the mass of carbon released in 2009 and 2010; the mass of CO2 released in each case is larger by a factor of 3.67 - 31.5 and 33.4 billion tons, respectively.
Global Carbon Emissions Rose Three Percent in 2011

According to a recent study by the Australian Global Carbon Project, global carbon emissions rose three percent in the past year, and six percent in 2010. This increase, equal to about half a billion tons of carbon, is largely due to rapid economic growth in several developing countries. Countries with the greatest increase in emissions include China, Brazil, and South Korea. In the United States, emissions rose 4.1 percent in the past year. On average, global emissions increased by 3.1 percent each year between 2000 and 2010. Global carbon emissions have now reached 10 billion tons, a situation that the authors note is likely to lead to a two degree Celsius rise in temperature that would cause irreversible climate change.
For additional information see: New York Times, Business Green, Science Daily

Himalayan Region at Risk

Recent research from the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) suggest that the Himalayan region is increasingly vulnerable to climate change, as rising temperatures are expected to affect precipitation patterns and the melting pattern of ice and snow on the peaks. This report, which makes use of mathematical models and data about glacier and lake levels, is the first study to account for the extent of glaciers and the patterns of snowfall in the Himalayan region. Climate change in the Himalayas would affect over 1.3 billion people who live downstream along river basins that depend on the water cycle of the mountain range. The threatened region is also home to a vibrant ecological network that includes 25,000 species of plants and animals.
For additional information see: Times of India, International Center for Integrated Mountain Development

New Climate Models Confirm Human Impact on Climate

New analysis from Swiss climate modelers reconfirms that humans are responsible for the pace and severity of climate change. Scientists used a model of the Earth’s energy budget and ran a mathematical model thousands of times using combinations of parameters that contribute to Earth’s energy and climate systems, including incoming shortwave solar radiation, solar energy that is reflected away from the earth, heat absorbed by oceans, and climate feedback mechanisms. Their results concluded that humans are responsible for at least 74 percent of temperature rise in the past 60 years. These results are remarkably similar to other climate model investigations and analyses of climate trends, suggesting that human emissions of greenhouse gases are the greatest contributor to the 0.5 degree Celsius temperature rise since 1950.
For additional information see: Nature, Abstract

New Historical Record of Antarctic May Influence Climate Models

The Arctic and Antarctic ice shelves may have melted simultaneously at the end of the last ice age, according to a new study published in Science. Until now, the size of the ice sheet in the Arctic was well known, but comparatively little was known about the long term changes in size of the southern ice sheet. "Our results suggest that Antarctica was not as climatically isolated as previously assumed," said Dr. Gerhard Kuhn. "Now we have to presume that the reaction of the large ice sheets in the Arctic and Antarctic to climate change is more closely linked in time than thought." Dr Weber, of the Geological Institute of the University of Cologne, specified that "forecasts of the future rise in the sea level caused by climate change will also have to be adjusted accordingly."
For additional information see: Science Daily, Science News, Study Abstract

United Nations Climate Talks Conclude in Durban

On December 11, the 194 countries comprising the United Nations Conference of Parties agreed on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action. The Durban Platform calls for a "protocol, or a legal instrument, or an agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention and applicable to all parties" by 2020, and will hold all major emitters, including the United States, China and India, to the same obligations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as other industrialized nations. The action plan calls for "an agreed outcome with legal force" involving all countries by 2015, and for the ratification and implementation of the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action by 2020. The COP17 meeting also concluded with the extension of the Kyoto Protocol until 2017. The 194 countries also agreed on the Green Climate Fund, a global account comprised of public and private funding that would raise $100 billion a year for aid to go to developing countries to use for climate change adaptation and conversion to clean energy technologies.   Throughout the climate talks, delegates from developing nations and small island states sought a more stringent deal to hold the major emitter countries to tougher reductions. "I would have wanted to get more, but at least we have something to work with. All is not lost yet," said Selwin Hart, chief negotiator on finance for the coalition of small states. The delegates, along with representatives from leading environmental groups that attended the climate talks, say that the Durban Platform is not enough on its own to slow global climate change. But, overall, the delegates were satisfied that they were able to come to an agreement, "We came here with plan A, and we have concluded this meeting with plan A to save one planet for the future of our children and our grandchildren to come," said COP17 Chairman and South African Foreign Minister Maite Nkoana-Mashabane.
For additional information see: Politico, New York Times: Article 1, and Article 2, Reuters, The Guardian

South Sudan Speaks to United Nations about Effects of Climate Change

Alfred Lado Gore, the Minister of Environment for South Sudan, requested assistance for South Sudan during his country’s first appearance at the UN climate meeting. "Climate change in Southern Sudan has very, very serious negative effects. In terms of agriculture, this is really catastrophic," said Gore. South Sudan, the world’s newest country, is plagued by droughts and infrequent sudden heavy downpours. With thousands of refugees fleeing conflict with Sudan, South Sudan’s citizens are constantly searching for food and water. Gore continued, "People want to cultivate but no longer know when rains come. And when they come, sometimes they are even floods and they destroy the crops. . . .If the crops fail, people have no food. Food security now becomes a threat."
For additional information see: Associated French Press

Carbon Emissions Increase by Half Since 1990

Worldwide carbon emissions have risen by almost 50 percent over the last two decades, according to a study by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia in the United Kingdom. This 50 percent increase amounts to an annual average growth of 3.1 percent, despite the Kyoto Protocol’s goal to reduce emissions to below 1990 levels. Scientists leading the study are concerned, given that the year 2020 is considered the necessary peak for carbon emissions in order to limit global average temperature to the 2 degree increase—the amount thought necessary to avoid catastrophic and irreversible climate change. However, with the new climate deal forged in Durban, no new emissions reduction treaty would take effect until 2020. "That would be too late, unless strong actions are taken in the meantime," said Corinne Le Quéré, author of the paper.
For additional information see: Mail and Guardian, The Guardian, Science Daily, Study Abstract

California Approves Cap and Trade, Creates World’s Second Largest Carbon Market

A San Francisco judge has approved California’s cap-and-trade plans which will make it the largest carbon market in North America and the second largest in the world. The bill was passed in 2006 but has come under fire from opponents claiming that it will destroy jobs and harm the economy. However, in May the court approved the California Air Resources Board’s (CARB) authority to implement the program. According to the judge’s ruling last week, the state has adequately studied alternatives to its climate goal and the program is now slated for implementation in 2013. According to the Environmental Defense Fund, the state has received more than $9 billion in venture capital for clean energy technology since the bill was passed.
For additional information see: Forbes, San Francisco Gate, Bloomberg

New Methane Plumes Rising from Arctic Ocean Discovered

Warmer temperatures and decreased sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean are causing massive amounts of underwater methane to bubble to the surface, according to findings released at last week’s American Geophysical Union meeting. Methane is rising to the surface and into the atmosphere in large plumes or fountains, some as large as one kilometer in diameter. In a 10,000 square mile area off the northern coast of Siberia, Russian scientists discovered more than 100 methane plumes. The research team has been monitoring the region for nearly two decades and was shocked by the latest results. The destabilization of underwater methane is considered one of the most significant climate change tipping points that will accelerate the rate of warming, as methane is at least 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide over a one hundred year period.
For additional information see: The Independent

Study Shows that Methane Gas from ‘Fracking’ Damages the Climate

A soon to be released study by Cornell University concludes that using hydraulic fracturing to extract natural gas from shale releases as much greenhouse gas emissions as coal. Professor Robert Howarth states, “The [greenhouse gas] footprint for shale gas is greater than that for conventional gas or oil when viewed on any time horizon, but particularly so over 20 years. Compared to coal, the footprint of shale gas is at least 20% greater and perhaps more than twice as great on the 20-year horizon and is comparable when compared over 100 years.” The study also states, “The large GHG footprint of shale gas undercuts the logic of its use as a bridging fuel over coming decades, if the goal is to reduce global warming.”
For additional information see: The Hill, Report, Cornell University Press Release

If you would like to receive my Climate Change News automatically by email and don’t already, just send an email message to:
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Thanks,
Chad A. Tolman
chadtolman@verizon.net
Coalition for Climate Change Study and Action

CLIMATE CHANGE NEWS FOR NOVEMBER 2011

2011-11-24T19:43:00.000-08:00

CC NEWS for NOV. 2011

In January of 2011 a nice paper by Robert J.Nichols et al. appeared in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A titled, Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a ‘beyond 4°C world’ in the twenty-first century. It says, “The range of future climate-induced sea-level rise remains highly uncertain with continued concern that large increases in the twenty-first century cannot be ruled out. The biggest source of uncertainty is the response of the large ice sheets of Greenland and West Antarctica. Based on our analysis, a pragmatic estimate of sea-level rise by 2100, for a temperature rise of 4°C or more over the same time frame, is between 0.5 m and 2 m …” This could result in the forced displacement of over 180 million people (2.4% of the global population). The most vulnerable countries are low-lying island nations, and poor countries in Africa and Asia. (Some low-lying coastal states in the U.S. - like DE, MD, FL and LA - are also at risk.) The rate of sea level rise is likely to increase as the temperature increases. A cost-benefit analysis of building dikes and beach replenishment vs. abandonment is suggested. At:
http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/161.full

In May the National Academy of Sciences issued the last of a series of four reports titled, America’s Climate Choices. There is an excellent 6.3-minute video describing the four studies, available at:
http://www.nasonline.org/news-and-multimedia/multimedia-gallery/nrc-americas-climate-choices.html.
The four studies are:
Advancing the Science of Climate Change  
Limiting the Magnitude of Climate Change 
Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change 
Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change
All can be read or purchased online. They can also be searched by words or phrases. The third report, on adaptation to the climate changes that cannot be avoided, has a Chapter 3 (Pages 61-120) titled, What Are American’s Options for Adaptation?, which includes consideration of sea level rise and storm surges. Several possible strategies for coastal states and communities are listed in Table 3.8, starting on Page 117. (http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12783&page=117)

The August 1-8 issue of The Nation carried an article by John Nichols titled, ALEC Exposed. ALEC, the American Legislative Exchange Council, is a far right organization funded by the Koch Brothers and others determined to get legislation across the country to suit their extreme agenda. Their priorities for 2011 included bills to privatize education, break unions, deregulate major industries, and pass voter ID laws. The Nation has obtained more than 800 documents representing decades of model legislation. Other priorities are weakening environmental regulations and opposing attempts to limit climate change. You can learn more at: http://www.alecexposed.org/wiki/ALEC_Exposed. The article in The Nation is at:
http://www.thenation.com/article/161978/alec-exposed

On Nov. 3 CBCNews reported a story titled, CO2 Levels Soared in 2010. The increase of 512 million tons of carbon emissions in 2010 was the largest annual increase on record - 6% over 2009 - and was due largely to increased emissions by China and the U.S., the world’s largest emitters. Emissions are now higher than the highest scenarios considered in the 2007 Report of the IPCC. Granger Morgan, head of the engineering and public policy department at Carnegie Mellon University, said, "We are building up a horrible legacy for our children and grandchildren." At: http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2011/11/03/carbon-dioxide-atmosphere.html?cmp=rss

Yale Environment 360, a publication of the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, posted an article by Gernot Wagner on Nov. 14 titled, Making the Case for the Value of Environmental Rules. The introduction says, “Some U.S. politicians have been attacking environmental regulations, arguing that they hurt the economy and that the costs outweigh the benefits. But four decades of data refute that claim and show we need not choose between a clean environment and economic growth.” The article points out that four decades of data show that the Clean Air Act of 1970 has provided economic benefits 30 times as large as its costs. The article goes on to say, ‘“Green growth” isn’t just a catch phrase. It’s the only way to reconcile our relentless pursuit for material wealth on a finite planet with an atmosphere at the boiling point. The fact is that sound environmental regulations — whether they address dirty air or an overheating planet — can create jobs and be a boost, rather than a burden, for the economy.” At:
http://e360.yale.edu/feature/economy_and_the_environment_the_case_for_environmental_rules/2464/

The Analysis Group posted an article on Nov. 15 titled, New Analysis Quantifies Economic Impact of Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative in Ten States. Some of the key findings include:
• The regional economy gains more than $1.6 billion in economic value added.
• Customers save nearly $1.1 billion on electricity bills, and an additional $174 million on natural gas and heating oil bills, for a total of $1.3 billion in savings over the next decade through installation of energy efficiency measures using funding from RGGI auction proceeds to date.
• 16,000 jobs are created region wide.
At: http://www.analysisgroup.com/rggi.aspx

On Nov. 15 The Hill posted an article by Jonathan Easley titled, Iowa scientists urge candidates to accept climate change. A letter from 31 scientists from 22 Iowa colleges and universities was delivered to the governor, urging candidates in next year’s election to “acknowledge the science of climate change.” The article points out that most of the GOP candidates for president this year – with the exception of John Huntsman (currently polling about 1% of Republican voters) is the only one to acknowledge the scientific consensus on climate change. It’s a sad day for the Grand Old Party of Presidents Abraham Lincoln and Teddy Roosevelt. At: http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/gop-primaries/193713-iowa-scientists-urge-candidates-to-acknowledge-climate-change

A Nov. 17 article by Todd Griset in Offshore Wind Wired is titled, ANALYSIS: Debate Over Federal Tax Credits For Offshore Wind. It points out that two federal incentives for offshore wind power development, the Production Tax Credit (PTC) and the Investment Tax Credit (PTC), are both scheduled to expire in 2012, unless they are renewed by Congress. The on-again off-again nature of U.S. tax incentives is one of the reasons that investors choose to put their money into offshore wind projects into other countries, where this new, clean renewable energy source is rapidly growing – in spite of the fact that we have a huge renewable energy resource along our coasts and on the Great Lakes. We are being left behind environmentally and economically, once again. At: http://offshorewindwire.com/

The following items are from the Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI), Carol Werner, Executive Director. Past issues of its newsletter are posted on its website under "publications"  at: http://www.eesi.org/publications/Newsletters/CCNews/ccnews.htm EESI’s newsletter is intended for all interested parties, particularly the policymaker community.

California Adopts Cap and Trade System

On October 20, the California Air Resources Board unanimously decided to adopt a state-administered cap and trade system to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This success marks the end of a court battle that delayed its development. The law, AB32, was originally signed by former governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2006, requiring California to reduce CO2 pollution to 1990 levels by 2020. By 2013, California’s largest carbon emitters will have to either adhere to carbon limits or buy carbon credits. A second compliance phase that will likely include around 85 percent of California’s carbon emissions sources will begin in 2015. About $10 billion in carbon allowances are expected to be traded by 2016, making California the second largest carbon market in the world following the European Union.
For additional information see: LA Times, NY Times

China Won’t Let Per Capita CO2 Emissions Reach U.S. Levels

China will not allow per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions levels to reach United States levels, according to a recent statement by vice chair of the National Development and Reform Commission, Xie Zhenhua. Though Chinese per capita CO2 emissions have been projected to reach U.S. levels by 2017, Xie stated that China would not “follow the path of the U.S.” China’s most recent five year plan includes a 17 percent decrease in CO2 per unit of economic growth. By 2020, China aims to increase energy efficiency to 40 to 45 percent from 2005 levels. In response to the idea of cutting emissions rather than restraining their development, Xie said that it could be possible to cut emissions after 2020, depending on the level of economic growth that has been achieved.
For additional information see: BBC

Scientists: Two Degree Increase Limit Unlikely Without Serious Emissions Reductions

A team of scientists recently concluded that, unless rapid changes are made in global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions levels, temperatures will rise more than two degrees Celsius above industrial levels. Scientists revised computer models to fit current data, and found that to avoid the two degree Celsius limit, annual CO2 emissions would need to fall to 44 gigatons per year by 2020, an 8.5 percent reduction. By 2050, a median of 20 gigatons annual emissions must be maintained in order to achieve climatic stability. This two degree target, deemed necessary by climate scientists to avoid the most detrimental effects of climate change, was set in the 2009 Copenhagen Accord. However, with current annual CO2 emissions at a median of at about 48 gigatons, reaching this goal is increasingly unlikely, according to reports by the United Nations.
For additional information see: Wired, Abstract

Scientists Study Self-Contained Melting on Greenland Ice Sheet

A new study suggests that the Greenland ice sheet undergoes intense melting even when temperatures do not reach extreme highs, because of positive feedbacks that cause more melting and are difficult to control. Data gathered from a microwave feedback satellites and output from an ice sheet model imply that there is a positive feedback system involving albedo that causes continued melt, independent of rising temperatures. Dark patches of ice warm and melt rapidly. A year following a particularly warm season can reveal more subsurface dark ice that will melt as soon as the temperatures begin to rise. North Atlantic Oscillation indexes, runoff and bare ice impact the melting system further, according to the authors of the study. The research was produced by the City College of New York.
For additional information see: Science Daily, Study

Mapping Study Analyzes Climate Change Threats

A recent survey ranked almost 200 nations for vulnerability to climate change in relation to population growth. The study included a map of the world that illustrates regional assessments of population and projected climate impacts. Cities with rapid population growth in Africa and Asia—such as Dhaka, Manila, Kinshasa, Kolkata, Jakarta, Delhi, and Guangzhou—tend to top the list. Socioeconomic factors and problems, such as corruption and poverty, worsen the issues posed by rapidly rising population and climate change. The objective of the project was to define potential risks for cities, economic zones, and investors. The study was part of the fourth Climate Change and Environmental Risk Analysis by the risk analysis firm Maplecroft.
For additional information see: Reuters, Study

Department of Energy Calculates an Unprecedented Rise in Global CO2 Emissions

Global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are rising faster than the worst case scenarios projected only four years ago. The 2007 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) correlated the rate of greenhouse gas pollution to the rate of warming, stating that temperatures will rise between 4 and 11 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. However, world CO2 emissions in 2010 exceeded 2009 emissions by about 564 million tons, a 6 percent increase. This exceeds the pollution output used by the IPCC in climate models. The United States and China were accountable for about half of the global CO2 emissions increase. The study was conducted by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, a part of the U.S. Department of Energy.
For additional information see: Washington Post, Environmental News Online

Study: Policymakers Need to Plan for Increased Climate Change-Induced Migration

A new University of Florida study found that as average global temperatures increase, even by a few degrees, human migrations are expected to increase as well, and governments must plan accordingly. When temperatures rise, weather patterns change and the severity and frequency of storms and natural disasters increase. Governments will need to prepare for the mass movement of people displaced by these disasters – something which is frequently mishandled when the complexities involved are underestimated. "Transplanting a population and its culture from one location to another is a complex process -- as complicated as brain surgery," lead author Anthony Oliver-Smith said. A simple cost-benefit analysis would show that the long-term costs of failed resettlements—including disease, malnutrition, and destroyed family and social networks—will waste more resources than if the resettlement is properly planned from the start. The study was published in the October 28 edition of Science.
For additional information see: Science Daily, Study Abstract

Climate Change Exacerbates Wildfires, Threatens Peatlands

A new study suggests that the drying of northern wetlands has caused more severe peatland wildfires. Wetlands are usually resistant to wildfires, but as they drain and the water table is lowered, the dry carbon mass is susceptible to fire. The fires have caused a nine-fold increase in the amount of carbon that has been released into the atmosphere. This is equal to about 450 years of peat accumulation. Peatlands are important to the global carbon cycle. A large peatland fire in Indonesia in the late 1990s caused a carbon release that totalled 40 percent of annual carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels.The study was published in the journal Nature Communications.
For additional information see: Science Daily, Abstract

Sea Level Rise Threatens Washington DC

According to a recent analysis of several different modeled scenarios for climate change, rising sea levels will swamp Washington DC by 2150. Depending on the amount of greenhouse gases that are emitted in the future, the temperature could rise enough to cause a sea level rise anywhere between four inches by 2043, to 16 feet by 2150. Researchers used geographic information systems to model and illustrate the outcome of sea level rise on the city and its underlying infrastructure. Low-end projections of sea level rise yield estimates of property damage around $2 billion. A sea level rise of 5 meters could result in $24.6 billion of property damage in Washington DC. This study was published in the journal Risk Analysis.
For additional information see: USA Today, Abstract

UN Report Confirms Link Between Extreme Weather and Climate Change

According to a recent draft of a U.N. report, climate change is causing more frequent and severe weather events, such as heat waves, wildfires, and floods. The report connects rising atmospheric temperatures, rising sea levels, and warmer ocean surface temperatures to recent extreme weather events. According to the report, peak temperatures are likely to increase up to 3 degrees Celsius by 2050. These changes in ocean conditions will cause more destructive cyclones. Melting glaciers, melting permafrost, and increased precipitation will cause more landslides. The document is the result of an intensive review of reports and data, and includes a 20 page summary for policymakers. The draft will be reviewed by hundreds of scientists working under the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) later in November.
For additional information see: AFP

Georgetown Climate Center Introduces Online Forum to Share Climate Change Tools

The Georgetown Climate Center recently launched the Adaptation Clearinghouse, an online tool to find and share resources and information that pertain to climate change policy issues and adaptation measures. This new online community will serve as a database of new research about climate change adaptation, as well as a forum to spread newly developed models and techniques. Some of the recent resources shared in the online community include a comprehensive model that explores sea level rise and coastal land use, and an adaptation plan for the city of Chula Vista that weighs the potential infrastructural impacts of climate change on the city. The Georgetown Climate Center is a nonpartisan group that aims to connect policymakers and share best practices and resources concerning climate change.
For additional information see: Georgetown Climate Center

Australian Senate Passes Carbon Tax

Australia’s parliament passed the most comprehensive carbon pricing scheme outside of the European Union (EU) on November 7. The law will put a tax of $23 (around $23.78 U.S. dollars) on each ton of carbon emitted by the top 500 polluters from July 2012 until July 2015, after which it will become a carbon trading emission scheme. Even though Australia only accounts for 1.5 percent of the world’s emissions, they have the highest per capita emissions intensity of any country because coal generates 80 percent of the country’s electricity. The government expects the tax will incentivize a multibillion dollar investment in cleaner fuels and will move their energy economy away from coal. The law also provides compensation for export-exposed industries, such as aluminum, zinc and steel, and provides personal tax cuts for workers (totaling up to $300 per year on average). In addition, the export-exposed industries will receive 94.5 percent of their carbon permits for free for the first three years. Once the scheme moves to a tradable permit system, it will be integrated with EU’s trading scheme.
For additional information see: The Guardian, Reuters

Three Hundred Square Mile Iceberg to Detach from Antarctica

After initially spotting an 18 mile long crack in the ice on Pine Island Glacier in Antarctica, NASA scientists concluded that a 300 square-mile iceberg will break off in the next few months. The newly formed iceberg is likely Antarctica’s largest contribution to global sea level rise so far. Warmer water has melted the deeper portions of the ice shelf that would otherwise have kept the ice mass grounded, leaving the mass of ice unstable. Scientists studying the ice shelf are unsure whether the ice will recover its size, or continue to become thinner and weaker, continually contributing to sea level rise.
For additional information see: Washington Post, Christian Science Monitor, NASA

Report: Climate Change Consequences Both Dire and Likely

According to a recent report by the International Energy Agency, irreversible climate change consequences are unavoidable if dramatic changes are not made within the next five years. If current pledges to reduce emissions are successful, the temperature average is projected to rise 3.5 degrees Celsius, says the report, which is still considerably higher than the two degree rise in temperature considered safe by scientists. The authors of the World Energy Outlook report said they are not optimistic that these planned measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will even be successful, and a failure to meet emissions reduction goals could result in a temperature rise of at least six degrees Celsius. Some factors that are expected to aggravate emissions problems include reluctance to continue using nuclear energy following the Fukushima disaster, unwillingness to abandon current industry and infrastructure, and growing numbers of fossil fuel-dependent power plants and inefficient buildings.
For additional information see: Washington Post, Business Green

Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative Benefits Participating Northeastern States

According to a new report by the National Association of Regulatory Utilities Commissioners (NARUC), the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) has raised over $1.6 billion for the ten participating states since the program began in 2008. RGGI requires the largest producers of power to buy allowances for emitted carbon dioxide (CO2). The states spent a large part of the money raised on energy efficient programs, saving regional customers $1.1 billion in electricity bills, and over $174 million on natural gas and heating bills over the past three years. RGGI programs created 16,000 jobs throughout the region, and the region’s payments for out-of-state fossil fuels decreased by over $765 million. Participating states are Conneticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, New Jersey, Rhose Island, and Vermont.
For additional information see: Reuters, Baltimore Sun, Report

New Report Urges Transparency in Government Climate Change Research

A new report from the Defense Science Board recommended that the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) should be more transparent in its monitoring of climate change. The report, titled Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security, criticizes the classified nature of the CIA’s climate center data, stating that compartmentalizing research and keeping data classified will only deter progress. The report highlights the impacts of climate change, stressing the need for mitigation and adaptation strategies. Suggestions for further climate change research and preparation included compiling a comprehensive set of data about climate change, action by the Department of Defense to prepare foreign militaries to deal with climate issues, and analyzing regions in which climate change and water supply could cause economic and government instability.
For additional information see: Guardian, Report

EU Passes New Resolution on Greenhouse Gas Reduction

On November 16, a resolution for the European Union (EU) to bolster plans to cut greenhouse gas emissions passed with 532 members of the European Parliament in favor, 76 opposed, and 43 abstaining. The goal set by the EU would decrease emissions by 20 to 30 percent by 2020, a target that was noted in the resolution to have the potential to create green jobs and economic growth. EU ministers also committed to a new phase of the Kyoto Protocol, under the condition that countries with larger carbon footprints join as well. The resolution also encouraged all nations to work towards cutting emissions enough to avoid exceeding a global average temperature rise of two degrees Celsius.
For additional information see: Reuters

If you would like to receive my Climate Change News automatically by email and don’t already, just send an email message to:
climate_change_news-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

If you want to stop receiving it, just send a message to climate_change_news-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com. If you come across some really interesting information, please send it along and I may include it in the next issue. Recent issues are available at: http://tolmanccnews.blogspot.com

Thanks,
Chad A. Tolman
chadtolman@verizon.net
Coalition for Climate Change Study and Action

CLIMATE CHANGE NEWS FOR OCTOBER 2011

2011-10-26T10:37:00.000-07:00

CC NEWS FOR OCT. 2011

In July an international team of scientists including Benjamin Horton at UPenn published an important paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, titled, Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia. Based on analysis of marsh sediments in North Carolina and elsewhere, the authors found that sea level was stable from 100 BC to 950 AD, then rose for 400 years at a rate of 6 cm (2.4 inches) per century (Medieval Warm Period), followed by a cooler period with slightly falling sea level until the late 19th Century. Then the rate increased to 21 cm (8 inches) per century during most of the last century. The rates of sea level rise parallel the global average temperature, consistent with both thermal expansion of seawater and increasing loss of ice from glaciers on land. We can expect an accelerating sea level as long as the temperature continues to rise. At: http://www.pnas.org/content/108/27/11017.short?rss=1&ssource=mfr
The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is a major driver of global warming.

The Pew Center for Global Climate Change has an outstanding web site showing what various states and regions are doing by way of energy and climate change policy. It also shows what renewable energy resources are available across the U.S. and what is being done to develop them. At: http://www.pewclimate.org/states-regions. For a map of renewable energy resources, except of offshore wind, see: http://www.pewclimate.org/what_s_being_done/in_the_states/nrel_renewables_maps.cfm

The Unitarian-Universalist UN Office has a Climate Change Task Force website with a 9.7-minute audio track and slide show called, Global Warming: Is it True?, presenting scientific evidence for global warming from several disciplines. At:
http://climate.uu-uno.org/

An important paper on climate change science and public opinion, Communicating the science of climate change, by Richard C. J. Somerville and Susan Joy Hassol, appeared in the October issue of Physics Today. They write, “It is urgent that climate scientists improve the ways they convey their findings to a poorly informed and often indifferent public.” They have some good ideas for how to communicate a very important message. At: http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/PT.3.1296

The NASA Jet Propulsion Lab at Cal Tech reported on Aug. 7 that NASA satellites used to monitor sea level show that global mean sea level had been rising by about 3.2 mm (1/8 inch) each year from 1993 to 2010, when it fell. The reason was a shift during the year from El Nino to La Nina conditions in the Pacific, changing global weather patterns and causing so much rainfall on land in some regions that global mean sea level dropped about 6 mm! Scientists expect sea level will rise again as the water runs back into the ocean and heat continues to be added as a result of greenhouse gases and black soot. At: http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2011-262

Janet Raloff has an article in the Sept. 8 ScienceNews titled, HIPPO reveals climate surprises. HIPPO stands for HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations, and HIAPER is an acronym for High Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research, an NSF research plane that has been flying over a range of altitudes (500 to 45,000 feet) from pole to pole analyzing concentrations of over 50 atmospheric gases and black carbon. Surprising results included high concentrations of nitrous oxide, a powerful greenhouse gas, near the equator, and high concentrations of methane, carbon dioxide and black carbon particles in the Arctic. The methane and CO2 are consistent with digestion of carbohydrates by methanogenic bacteria as the permafrost melts and warms, and help account for the fact that the Arctic is warming faster than the global average. At: http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/334245/title/HIPPO_reveals_climate_surprises

Alexandra Witze reported on Sept. 14 in ScienceNews that the volume of Arctic sea ice in 2011 was the smallest on record. The area of ice was very close to that in 2007, which holds the record for the smallest area. At: http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/334360/title/Summer_Arctic_melt_among_worst_ever
A decreasing area of sea ice is important because it means that less sunlight is being reflected back into space, increasing the rate of warming.

The Virginia Chapter of the Sierra Club, the Chesapeake Climate Action Network, the Green Jobs Alliance, and Virginia Interfaith Power and Light have put up a great website at http://va4wind.com/ (most recent entry Sept. 17) to promote the development of offshore wind power in VA. It has a couple of good short videos and endorsements from some important labor unions that are hoping for new manufacturing jobs building wind turbines and components.

Lauren Markoe has a story in the Sept. 22 issue of the Huffington Post titled, On Evolution And Climate Change, Evangelicals Stand Apart According To Poll. The new poll shows that majorities of Americans believe in evolution (57%) and climate Change (69%). Evangelicals and Tea Party members are much less likely to believe in either. Only 41% of Tea Party members believe there is good evidence for global warming, compared to 49% of Republicans generally, 70% of Independents, and 81% of Democrats. 33% of Tea Party members are more likely to support a candidate who denies climate change, compared to 16% of Republicans generally and only 5% of Democrats. Partly because of a disinformation campaign by fossil fuel interests, only 40% of Americans believe that a consensus exists among scientists on climate change, even though over 95% of climate scientists support the consensus position that it’s real, is caused primarily by human activities, and constitutes a growing threat. See: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/09/22/evangelicals-evolution-climate-change-poll_n_975699.html

On Sept. 28 Jim Hansen (Columbia University) posted a short article titled, It's a Hard-Knock Butterfly's Life - Can a Lady Monarch Provide a Role Model? In it he describes the struggles this year of a family of Monarch butterflies on his farm in Eastern Pennsylvania, and ties it to the struggles that young people face in a warming world whose politics are dominated by wealthy and powerful fossil fuel interests. He argues against a cap-and-trade system for reducing carbon emissions and for a tax-and-dividend system in which fossil fuel companies are taxed directly for carbon at the source, and the proceeds are distributed to all citizens on an equal per capita basis (half that much to each child). Most Americans – those who emit more than the average per capita amount of carbon – would come out ahead; the energy hogs would pay more. He suggests gradually raising the carbon tax to $115 per ton of CO2, and says that this would reduce U.S. carbon emissions by 30%. At: http://www.columbia.edu/%7Ejeh1/mailings/2011/20110928_Butterfly.pdf

Charmaine Noronha of the Associated Press posted an article in YahooNews on Sept. 30 titled, Canadian Arctic nearly loses entire ice shelf. She reported that two ice shelves that have been there since before Europeans settled Canada broke up this summer, with one nearly disappearing altogether. This loss of ice is a reflection of the fact that the temperature in the Canadian Arctic has been warming rapidly – about 1°C (1.8°F) per decade for the past half century. Loss of the ice shelves – about 3 billion tons of ice – portends more rapid future flow of the glaciers behind them and more rapid sea level rise.
At: http://news.yahoo.com/canadian-arctic-nearly-loses-entire-ice-shelf-214311365.html

Justin Gillis wrote an excellent article for the Oct. 1 NY Times titled, With Deaths of Forests, a Loss of Key Climate Protectors. It points out that, of the approximately 10 billion tons of carbon that human activities put into the atmosphere as CO2 each year, about 25% is taken up by forests, 25% goes into the ocean, and 50% stays in the atmosphere. That could change as forests are killed by pine bark beetles and forest fires – not only reducing their ability to capture and store carbon, but releasing their stored carbon through combustion and decay. Efforts to save forests in developing countries are being hampered by U.S. economic problems and climate change denial. At: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/01/science/earth/01forest.html?_r=2&adxnnl=1&ref=todayspaper&pagewanted=print&adxnnlx=1317554334-zW7WYq+mPnZRiQUMFjwZqQ

On October 8 the Huffington Post put up a 1-minute coal energy drink parody YouTube video titled, Coal Isn’t Just Clean Anymore, It’s Refreshing. Good for a laugh. At: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/07/coal-energy-drink-clean-coal_n_994829.html

During 2006-2008 the NY Times published a series of articles it called The Energy Challenge. See: www.nytimes.com/ref/science/earth/energy.html

The following items are from the Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI), Carol Werner, Executive Director. Past issues of its newsletter are posted on its website under "publications"  at http://www.eesi.org/publications/Newsletters/CCNews/ccnews.htm
EESI’s newsletter is intended for all interested parties, particularly the policymaker community.

Asian Development Bank Outlines Food Security Threat Due to Climate Change

A recent study from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) illustrated the effect of climate change on hunger and malnutrition in the Pacific. The report detailed how globalization has led to increased reliance on foreign food imports, and how declining growth in agricultural production since the mid nineties will be exacerbated by changes in precipitation patterns and increased frequency of natural disasters. Crop output is expected to continue to decline, while increased acidification of seawater and coastal destruction will render fisheries a less reliable source of food. The ADB suggested methods for mitigating the impact of climate change on food supply such as planting more resilient crops, enhancing traditional food production processes, and careful management of local fisheries. Weather-based crop insurance and emergency input subsidies have also been considered as approaches to alleviating problems faced by Pacific farmers dealing with fluctuating climate patterns and increasing natural disasters.
For additional information see: The Hindu, Report

Carbon Disclosure Project Examines Business Climate Change Plans

According to the 2011 edition of the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) Global 500 report, 68 percent of the world’s largest companies include climate change in their business plans. In 2010, only 48 percent of businesses included climate change in their business plans. Of the 396 companies included in the investigation, 74 percent reported having greenhouse gas emissions targets, and 45 percent reported reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Key reasons for addressing climate change included the rising price of oil and recognition of the financial benefits of emissions reduction. Over the ten year history of the CDP reports, a correlation between the CDP’s Carbon Performance Leadership Index and higher stock market performance has been observed.
For additional information see: Sustainable Business, Report

Ecosystem Research Reveals Impact of Climate Change on European Coasts

A recent report by the Climate Change and European Ecosystem Research (CLAMER) project observed that the most dramatic changes to Europe’s marine environments on record have occurred in the past 25 years. Marine temperatures and sea levels data indicated a rate of sea water warming 10 times faster than the average twentieth century warming rate. Rising sea levels and more intense winds have eroded 15 percent more of the European coasts, and estimates suggested that the sea level could rise between 60 and 190 centimeters in the next 90 years. CLAMER, which involved 17 of Europe’s marine research institutes, also outlined the societal impacts of marine ecosystem change. Health care costs due to changing marine environments are projected to include contaminated seafood, water-born pathogen infections, and a proliferation of marine bacteria such as the warm-water Vibrio bacteria. CLAMER estimated that 1 trillion Euros of physical assets are vulnerable due to property damage and economic loss caused by rising sea levels and more intense storms, and the fact that 35 percent of Europe’s GDP is generated within 50 kilometers of the coast.
For additional information see: Reuters, Science Daily, Report

2011 Summer Sees Second Most Arctic Ice Melt on Record

In the summer of 2011, the Arctic sea ice melted more than any other summer on record except for the record lows of 2007, and air temperatures were 1 to 4 degrees Celsius higher than average, according to the US National Snow and Ice Data Center. However, according to daily ice map records from physicists at Bremen University, with a week more of expected ice melt the one-day minimum ice area for 2011 will be 4.24 square kilometers, breaking the 2007 record of 4.27 square kilometers. The Arctic ice melts and refreezes each year, but scientists have recorded more and more dramatic cycles of melting since 1972. This August, both the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route were open. Each decade, about 10 percent of the arctic ice is lost. If the rate of melting observed this summer continues, Arctic summers will likely be ice-free within 30 years, an estimate that is 40 years earlier than the figure proposed at the last International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A recent study in the Journal of Geophysical Research suggested that the present volume of ice in the arctic is only 62 percent of the volume of Arctic ice in 1979.
For additional information see: The Guardian, University of Bremen, Abstract

Poll: More Americans Acknowledge Climate Change

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on September 15 revealed that 83 percent of Americans believe in climate change, compared to 75 percent last year. According to the poll, about 72 percent of Republicans achnowledge global warming and 92 percent of Democrats do. Of the participants who believed in global warming, 71 percent are convinced that it is at least partially caused by humans. About 15 percent of voters see global warming as a primary concern. The poll also indicated that, although more Americans recognize climate change, those who are skeptical are increasingly sure of their convictions. Jon Krosnick, a political science professor at Stanford University, has suggested that the tendency of Republican presidential candidates to deny or criticize evidence of climate change has prompted people to reflect on their own views about global warming.
For additional information see: Reuters, Scientific American, International Business Times

Virginia Appeals Court Sides with Insurance Company in Climate Change Case

On September 16, the utility AES emerged as the winner of a decision over whether its insurer, Steadfast, was obligated to defend it in a lawsuit over climate change. AES is a defendent in the court case Kivalina v. Exxon Mobil Corp. et. al., in which the village of Kivalina, Alaska, accused AES and others of negligence because they knowingly emitted greenhouse gases, which contribute to climate change, and subsequent rising sea levels. While the larger Kivalina case is in the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco, AES sought a decision in Virginia courts on its insurer’s obligation. The decision not to obligate Steadfast hinged on the particular wording of the policy, according to Virginia Supreme Court Justice Bernard Goodwyn. "The relevant policies only require Steadfast to defend AES against claims for damages of bodily injury or property damage caused by an occurrence or accident," he wrote. Climate change did not meet the “accident” or “occurrence” definition in this instance, according to the ruling.
For additional information see: New York Times, Insurance Journal

“24 Hours of Reality” Project Addresses Climate Change Skeptics

“24 Hours of Reality”, a new project led by former vice president Al Gore, illustrated the effects of climate change in 24 locations around the world through live online videos broadcast in 24 different time zones. The website’s counter indicated the program, which was available in 13 different languages, attracted 8.5 million viewers. The purpose of the videos was to raise awareness about the cause and effects of climate change, directly addressing climate change skeptics and deniers. The videos included an investigation into how climate change skeptics are funded and 200 new slides that outline the connection between climate change and increasingly intense natural disasters.
For additional information see: Reuters, NPR, Presentation, New York Times

Number of People Displaced by Climate Change Reaches 30 Million

Over 30 million people were displaced last year by environmental and weather disasters in Asia, according to a recent Asian Development Bank (ADB) report. This number is expected to rise as disasters intensify due to impacts caused by climate change such as rising sea levels, floods, droughts, and food shortages. Problems associated with the influx of migration are estimated to cost around $60 billion. Areas that face the greatest challenges are low-lying regions such as the Maldives, where populations of entire islands have already been forced to move. The report states that rather than creating a new category of migrant people, climate change will likely influence existing migration factors and patterns, such as reinforcing the strong urbanization trend in the region. The ADB is currently working on a report that will outline potential policies that governments could consider to mitigate the impacts of climate change.
For additional information see: The Guardian, Report

Leaked World Bank Report Calls for Ending Fossil Fuel Subsidies to Fulfill Climate Finance Pledges

Wealthy countries should eliminate $50 billion a year in fossil fuel subsidies, a leaked World Bank report said. The report, which was intended to be presented to the G20 finance ministers in November, also said that countries should spend their pledged climate change funds on financing carbon markets. It is unlikely that the funds which rich countries have pledged—$30 billion for 2010-2012 and $100 billion per year by 2020—will actually be provided. Removing fossil fuel subsidies could be a starting point though, according to the study. The report further supports a carbon tax on the aviation and maritime industries. "A globally implemented carbon charge of $25/ton CO2 on fuel used could raise around $13 billion from international aviation and around $26 billion from international maritime transport in 2020, while reducing carbon dioxide emissions from each industry by around 5 to 10 percent.” Developing countries have become increasingly frustrated by rich nations failing to fulfill their climate finance pledges. "Rich nations cannot try and pass the buck to private companies who will be more interested in delivering high returns than meeting the needs of some of the world's poorest people,” said Murray Worthy, a policy officer with the World Development Movement.
For additional information see: Guardian, World Bank Draft Report (Via Guardian)

Deep Ocean Layers Can Absorb Heat

A recent study revealed that ocean layers deeper than 1,000 feet can absorb heat for up to a decade. This discovery provided insight into why global temperature does not rise consistently. The study was prompted by the realization that even though carbon emissions have climbed steadily in the past decade, the highest global temperatures on record in 1998 were not exceeded until 2010. By using a software tool known as Community Climate System Model to illustrate complex relationships between the atmosphere, land, oceans, and ice, scientists were able to create five simulations of global temperatures. The simulations projected that there would be periods of relatively stable temperatures that could last about a decade, during which heat energy is buried in deep oceanic layers.The study was published in Nature Climate Change.
For additional information see: Science Daily, International Business Times, Abstract

New Technologies Could Reduce Cost of Climate Protection

New research suggests that funding for new technology is one of the most cost effective ways to address climate change. Funding for new energy technologies with a high potential for cost reduction is more financially beneficial than investing in more familiar technologies. The research was conducted at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research using a computer simulation that processed data from the past 100 years. The analysis shows that companies are uncertain about long term profits from new technologies, and consumers have little incentive to pay more for electricity that was produced with new technology, so inferior and ultimately more expensive technology tends to dominate the market. Funding targeted at new technologie, such as solar energy, offshore wind power, and biomass energy, over a 30 year period, have a more positive cost-benefit ratio, compared to financial support for well-established technologies such as nuclear energy and hydroelectric power. The study was published in the journal Resource and Energy Economics.
For additional information see: Science Daily, Guardian, Study

Study: “Negative Emissions” Necessary if CO2 Emissions Continue Beyond 2020

Cutting carbon emissions may no longer be sufficient to stay within the 2 degree temperature limit on global warming, a series of studies have predicted in the November issue of the journal Climate Change. According to one study, the atmosphere may be saturated with enough carbon to reach the 2 degree increase within 20 years, after which carbon must be removed to compensate for increased emissions. Such an approach, known as “negative emissions”, is getting more attention as emissions continue to grow and global temperatures rise. The atmosphere has already warmed by .8 degrees since before industrial times. "If we want to stay below 2 degrees Celsius and possibly achieve 1.5 in the 22nd century then we're not going to get around these negative emissions," said Malte Meinshausen, lead author of one study. According to Meinshausen’s study, in order to achieve this, we must halt increases in carbon emissions within 5 years, and 3.5 billion tons have to be removed from the atmosphere annually by 2070. If emissions continue to rise after 2020, excess carbon must be removed from the atmosphere at a rate of 18 billion tons annually for about 100 years.
For additional information see: Reuters

Updated Global Adaptation Index Illustrates Regional Climate Risks Around the World

The Global Adaptation Institute recently released a new update to its annual Global Adaptation Index (GAIn) that tracks the potential risks of climate change impact around the world. The goal of the GAIn project is to provide information for governments and private sector investors about climate change adaptation measures and potential around the globe. GAIn consists of a color coded map that assesses both the vulnerability of a region to dramatic climate shifts, and the readiness of different regions to adapt to the changing climate. The readiness component accounts for economic, social and government factors that are considered based on indicators such as financial and investment freedom, political stability and control of corruption, and tertiary education. According to the index, Denmark, Switzerland, and Ireland are among the best equipped to deal with potential threats, while Burundi, Zimbabwe, and the Central African Republic face some of the greatest challenges.
For additional information see: Washington Post, Global Adaptation Index

Global CO2 Emissions Increased 45 Percent in Past Decades

According to a new report by the European Commission’s Joint Research Center, global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions increased 45 percent between 1990 and 2010, reaching 33 billion tons last year. Industrialized nations subject to the Kyoto Protocol, however, are on track to meet their goals. The report stated that a surge of emissions from developing nations such as China and India, whose CO2 output increased 257 and 180 percent, respectively, over the course of the decade, were largely responsible for the global increase. In the United States, CO2 emissions increased by five percent. Nations in the European Union decreased CO2 emissions by seven percent, and Russia saw a decrease of 28 percent. Nations that ratified the Kyoto Protocol and the United States were responsible for about two-thirds of global emissions in 1990, but these countries are now responsible for less than half of global emissions. The report was based on results from the Emissions Database for Atmospheric Research, and recent statistics for energy use.
For additional information see: Science Daily, Environment 360, Report

Panel Urges Government to Implement New Climate Change Mitigation Measures

A panel of scientists and former government officials at the Bipartisan Policy Center recently urged the U.S. government to consider directly manipulating the earth’s temperature to mitigate climate change. Proposed techniques included injecting the atmosphere with particles that would mimic the cooling effect of volcanic eruptions, trapping and storing atmospheric carbon underground, and solar radiation management. Solar radiation management, the most controversial of the proposals, involves reflecting solar energy away from the earth’s atmosphere before it can be absorbed. Such techniques are typically referred to as “geoengineering,” but the panel used the term “climate remediation” throughout the report to emphasize the goal of counteracting past greenhouse gas emissions.
For additional information see: New York Times, Report

Officials from Across Americas Discuss Public Health and Climate Change

On September 30, health officials from throughout the Americas met to discuss public health risks and necessary responses related to climate change. The discussion was part of the 50th Directing Council meeting of the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), in collaboration with the World Health Organization (WHO). PAHO/WHO experts agreed that the health effects of climate change are numerous, and the impact of global warming will include both direct effects, such as heat stress and injuries from natural disasters, as well as indirect effects, such as the spread of disease to new areas and malnutrition due to crop failure. Officials agreed that rapid and unplanned urban growth, population displacement, and increased drought and flood risks related to climate change pose new public health issues. Proposed solutions to these climate change-induced problems included improving infrastructure necessary to respond to emergencies and natural disasters, promoting national campaigns to raise awareness about climate change, advancing primary health care services, and establishing a new PAHO/WHO Collaborating Center to study the health effects of climate change.
For additional information see: PAHO

Climate Change Challenges Migrating Species

A new study from Brown University predicted that about 50 percent of existing species will be unable to adapt to changing climates. Researchers concluded that species would need to be able not only to disperse quickly and relocate to more favorable climates, but also endure fluctuating climatic conditions. Using mathematical models to project climate change and observed migration patterns, researchers found that migration—the typical method that animals use to cope with climate change—will be difficult for many populations because fluctuating temperatures will halt migration patterns, confining populations to a specific area that is only temporarily inhabitable. According to a sample study of species of amphibians, about half of the species would survive the migration and fluctuating conditions, while half would be either extinct or endangered. The stdy was published in Ecology Letters.
For additional information see: Science Daily, Examiner, Abstract

Businesses Urge Government Action on Climate Change

Over 175 companies issued a statement urging governments to make progress on ensuring that underfunded developing nations have sufficient climate aid funds by 2020, and to create agreements and financial partnerships to tackle climate change, regardless of the poor chances of a new climate treaty being signed. The communique was sent to the October 14 and 15 G20 meeting in anticipation of the Durban climate discussions. The companies noted that climate change poses an immense threat to future global prosperity, and the continued delay in progress could undermine government credibility. Stimulating private sector investment in cleaner technologies and job creation were among the incentives cited for greater government action. Among the businesses involved were Shell, Tesco, Unilever, Lloyds Bank, and EDF.
For additional information see: Reuters, Business Green, Environmental Finance, National Geographic

Amazon Drought in 2010 Emitted More CO2 Than India

The massive Amazon drought in 2010 resulted in more carbon emissions than the sum of emissions from Amazonian deforestation over the same period of time, according to a study conducted by researchers at the NASA Ames Research Centre and published in the journal Environmental Research Letters. The drought released nearly 500 million tons of carbon (1.8 billion tons of carbon dioxide) into the atmosphere, exceeding the annual emissions of India, one of the world’s top emitters. The source of emissions was the decomposition of decaying plant matter and the reduced CO2 uptake that should have occurred—but didn’t—due to the limited water necessary for plant growth. The researchers used satellites to measure the differences in net primary production to determine overall changes in plant growth throughout the drought. While some of the losses may be recouped during the forest’s subsequent recovery—as occurred after the drought in 2005—researchers fear that the increasing severity of such droughts may be an indication that the rainforest is on the verge of collapse as a result of fragmentation, deforestation and climate change.
For additional information see: Monga Bay, Yale 360, Study

Study Suggests Climate Change Will Cause Rapid Alterations in Tree Cover

According to a new study, the effects of climate change on tree cover in forests and savannas may be much more rapid than expected. The study used satellite data for global rainfall to observe and predict which areas of Africa, Australia, and South America are most ecologically fragile, and which could readily transform from a forested region to a savanna, or from a savanna into a forested region. The results suggested that, rather than smoothly transitioning from one state to another, tree cover fluctuated between three contrasting alternatives of forest, treeless regions, and savanna, depending on precipitation levels. The study was published in the journal Science.
For additional information see: Science Daily, Abstract

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Coalition for Climate Change Study and Action

CLIMATE CHANGE NEWS FOR SEPT. 2011

2011-09-19T05:15:00.000-07:00

CC NEWS FOR SEPT. 2011

On Feb. 4, 2011 Ira Flatow of NPR’s Science Friday hosted Kerry Emanuel, a climate science professor at MIT and an expert on hurricanes. Kerry authored an excellent book called Divine Wind: The History and Science of Hurricanes. The interview was called, Taking the Politics Out of Climate Science. Emmanuel is a conservative and a Republican, even though it seems that denying the science of climate change has become a litmus test for Republican candidates running for major political office. He has some very interesting views - well worth listening to. At: http://www.sciencefriday.com/program/archives/201102045

Another oldie but goodie from Science Friday is a Dec. 3, 2010 broadcast in which Ira Flatow interviewed Anthony Leiserowitz  Director of the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication, and Bob Inglis, an outgoing Republican representative from the 4th Congressional District of North Carolina and former member of the House Energy Committee. Again, well worth listening to. At: http://www.sciencefriday.com/program/archives/201012031

On May 9, 2011 IPCC Working Group III on Climate Mitigation released the Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN). It concluded that 80% of the world’s energy demand in 2050 could be supplied by six renewable energy resources: bioenergy, direct solar energy, geothermal energy, hydropower, ocean energy and wind energy. The press release is at: http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/press/content/potential-of-renewable-energy-outlined-report-by-the-intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change
The Summary for Policy Makers is at:
http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/report/IPCC_SRREN_SPM

On July 21 Chris Jordan-Bloch of Earth Justice posted a 7-minute video titled, An Ill Wind – The Secret Threat of Coal Ash. It shows a number of members of a Piute Indian tribe who have the misfortune of living with a coal-fired power plant just upwind of their village. The prevailing wind blows the fine particles containing chromium, arsenic and lead into their homes and lungs, causing unnecessary illness and death. The site allows you to sign a petition asking that coal ash be regulated as a hazardous waste – a common sense thing to do. At:
http://earthjustice.org/blog/2011-july/an-ill-wind-blows-in-moapa

On July 28 the Government Accountability Office issued a report titled, Climate Engineering: Technical Status, Future Directions, and Potential Responses. Climate engineering includes large-scale efforts to reduce the impacts of climate change, such as chemically removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere or putting sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere to reduce the intensity of sunlight falling on Earth’s surface. A public opinion poll done as part of the study indicates that people generally support research, but are concerned about the possible adverse consequences of trying to modify Earth’s climate. At: http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-11-71
While the full report is 135 pages, a 1-page summary can be found at: http://www.gao.gov/highlights/d1171high.pdf

Robert Bradley, The CEO of the Institute for Energy Research, posted an article on Forbes on Aug. 15 titled, Where Energy Federal Subsidies Really Go. He wrote that the federal government provided $37.2 billion in direct energy subsidies in 2010, an increase of more than $19 billion over 2007. He said that wind power was the largest recipient of federal energy dollars, with $5 billion in subsidies; solar got $1.13 billion. Biofuels (mostly ethanol) got $6.6 billion. When I add these numbers up, I get $12.7 billion, much less that half of the $37.2 billion total, yet he claims that federal spending to promote renewable energy has very little to show for the dollars spent, and that it’s part of the out of control federal spending driving the deficit. At:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2011/08/15/where-federal-energy-subsidies-really-go/
Bradley ignores the illness and death resulting from fossil fuel use, and the climate change costs of continuing to burn them. When I did a quick Google search for the Institute for Energy Research, I found a Sourcewatch report on the organization saying that the “think tank” has received funding from ExxonMobil and the Koch Brothers, is opposed to renewable energy, and thinks that climate change is a hoax. Nuf said? See:
http://sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Institute_for_Energy_Research

On August 18, NASA posted the first complete map of Antarctic ice flows, based on radar data from satellites. There is even a short video so that you can watch the flows. The report quoted Thomas Wagner, NASA's cryospheric program scientist in Washington, saying, "The map points out something fundamentally new: that ice moves by slipping along the ground it rests on. That's critical knowledge for predicting future sea level rise. It means that if we lose ice at the coasts from the warming ocean, we open the tap to massive amounts of ice in the interior." At: www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2011/aug/HQ_11-269_Glaciers.html

On August 19 the University of Delaware’s UDaily posted an article titled, Energy Conservation Initiative. It described the proceeds of a sale of a nearly $73 million bond, which, when added to $11 million from the state, will provide $84 million to promote energy conservation, energy efficiency, and renewable energy development in Delaware. Others may look at what Delaware has done as a model. At: http://www.udel.edu/udaily/2012/aug/SEU-081911.html

Bill Chameides, Dean of the Nicholas School of the Environment at Duke University, posted a Huffington Post story on August 23 titled, Confirmed: U.S. Emissions Up in 2010. He reported that CO2 emissions were up by 3.9% over what they were in 2009 – partly as a result of the economic recovery and partly because of a hot summer in 2010, with increased demands for air conditioning, much of whose electrical energy comes from coal. The article has a bar graph showing the sources of increased electrical generation in several states. Kentucky and Wisconsin got most of their increase from coal. California and Colorado got most of theirs from wind. Other states used natural gas. At:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bill-chameides/confirmed-us-emissions-up_b_934050.html

On August 24 the Yale Forum on Climate Change and the Media posted an article titled, Earth Science Teachers Surveying Members; Climate Seen ‘Second Only to Evolution’ in Controversy. “The National Earth Sciences Teachers Association, NESTA, is asking its members and other teachers to respond anonymously to a 71-question “Survey Monkey” online questionnaire.” The results on the teaching of climate change in grades of K-12 will be posted in November. The article goes on to say, “Science magazine reported in its August 5 issue that “the U.S. political debate over climate change is seeping into K-12 science classrooms, and teachers are feeling the heat.” Reporter Sara Reardon wrote in that story of conflicts among secondary school science teachers, school boards, and sometimes parents and students over expectations to teach climate change science in a “balanced” way.” “Her article pointed to a law passed in 2008 in Louisiana listing climate change, along with evolution, as “‘controversial’ subjects that teachers and students alike can challenge in the classroom without fear of reprisal.”” At: http://www.yaleclimatemediaforum.org/2011/08/climate-seen-second-only-to-evolution-in-controversy/

On August 25 the Government Accountability Office (GAO) posted an interview with Dr. Timothy Persons, the Chief GAO scientist, about a recent report titled,
Climate Engineering: Technical Status, Future Directions, and Potential Responses. The interview can be heard or downloaded as a podcast at: http://www.gao.gov/podcast/watchdog_episode_69.html. The full report is available at:
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-11-71, and a 1-page summary of highlights is at:
http://www.gao.gov/highlights/d1171high.pdf

On Aug. 31 Justin Gillis of the NY Times posted an article titled, Documenting a Collapsing Ice Shelf. The article describes the breakup of the ice shelf in front of the Petermann Glacier in Northwestern Greenland. This is the first loss of a Greenland ice shelf this far north, and is consistent with rising temperatures of seawater in the area, though direct measurements of waters temperature beneath the shelf before it broke up are not available. At:
http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/31/documenting-a-collapsing-ice-shelf/

On Sept. 2 Helen Turner of WalesOnline posted an article titled, Scientist left speechless as vast glacier turns to water. The article quoted Dr Alun Hubbard from the Aberystwyth University’s Centre for Glaciology, after his return from the Petermann Glacier in northwest Greenland. He said: “Although I knew what to expect in terms of ice loss from satellite imagery, I was still completely unprepared for the gob-smacking scale of the break-up, which rendered me speechless. It was just incredible to see. This glacier is huge, 20 km across, 1,000 m high. It’s like looking into the Grand Canyon full of ice and coming back two years later to find it’s full of water.” At: http://www.walesonline.co.uk/go-green/go-green-climate/2011/09/02/scientist-left-speechless-as-vast-glacier-turns-to-water-91466-29349051/

On Sept. 7 the League of Women Voters, the Sierra Club, and a number of other organizations sent a letter to every member of the U.S. House of Representatives opposing the legislative agenda proposed by Majority Leader Cantor. If successful he would greatly reduce environmental protections for U.S. citizens and cause in untold death and illness – all in the name of promoting jobs and reducing the deficit. At: http://www.lwv.org/AM/Template.cfm?Template=/CM/ContentDisplay.cfm&ContentID=17947

On. Sept. 7 Climate Communications hosted a press conference with expert reviewers discussing the connections between extreme weather and climate change. The full audio recording of the conference can be downloaded at: 9/7/11 Climate Communication Press Conference. The article has a number of interesting graphs and explanations, including why small increases in temperature can cause large increases in extreme weather events. At:
http://climatecommunication.org/new/articles/extreme-weather/overview/

On Sept. 8 the Department of Energy announced awards of $43 million over 5 years for 41 R&D projects to promote the development of the huge offshore wind resource waiting to be tapped off U.S. coasts. At: http://energy.gov/articles/department-energy-awards-43-million-spur-offshore-wind-energy. While the amount of money is small relative to federal subsidies for nuclear power and fossil fuels, it’s a step in the right direction.

On Sept. 10 a video aired on energyNow! called the “Oil Shockwave’ Simulation. The simulation involved an armed Al-Qaeda attack on a major oil processing plant in Saudi Arabia, causing a sudden drop in world oil supply. The video lasts about 5.5 minutes and shows how vulnerable we are to disruptions in oil supply, since we now import more than 60% of the oil we use. At: http://www.energynow.com/video/2011/09/09/oil-shockwave-simulation
energyNow! Is a weekly TV news magazine that deals with important energy issues, like the Keystone XL pipeline that would bring tar sands crude from Canada to Texas for refining.

The following items are from the Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI), Carol Werner, Executive Director. Past issues of its newsletter are posted on its website under "publications"  at http://www.eesi.org/publications/Newsletters/CCNews/ccnews.htm
EESI’s newsletter is intended for all interested parties, particularly the policymaker community.

Sea Level Rise to Continue Despite Efforts to Reduce Emissions, Study Finds

A new study suggests that sea levels would continue to rise in the coming centuries even if all greenhouse gas emissions were halted today. The study by a University of Arizona-led team of researchers examined the interaction of the atmosphere and ocean during the warmest period of the Last Interglacial Period -- roughly 125,000 years ago. At that time, sea levels were roughly 26 feet higher than today. Average ocean temperatures, however, were only 0.7 degrees Celsius warmer than today. “This means that even small amounts of warming may have committed us to more ice sheet melting than we previously thought,” said lead author Nicholas McKay. The oceans warm more slowly than the atmosphere. Water also expands when heated. But the study also found that most of the sea level rise during ancient times was because of melting ice sheets, rather than the thermal expansion of water. The study has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters.
For additional information see: Science Daily

Volcanoes, Pollution Helped Curb Rate of Warming, Study Reports

Volcanic ash and man-made pollution from burning fossil fuels helped slow the rate of global warming in the past decade, a new study found. Although average global temperatures were higher in the 2000s than during the 1990s and 1980s, the rate at which the planet was warming slowed. Six French and American researchers, including staff at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and scientists at the University of Colorado, found the trend may be explained by an increase in the stratosphere of persistent aerosols that block sunlight. Although no massive volcanic eruptions have occurred since 1991, smaller eruptions occurred in 2006, 2008 and 2009. The addition of the volcanic ash to the haze of man-made pollution in the upper atmosphere was enough to help slow the rate of warming by 20 percent since 1998, according to the study. However, the brake on the rate of warming is only temporary. Eventually, the shading effect will be overwhelmed by greenhouse gases building in the atmosphere. The study provides more information on the interaction of forces shaping the global climate. It was published online July 21 in Science.
For additional information see: The Washington Post, ScienceNOW, Study Abstract

Climate Change May Doom Wisconsin Fish

University of Wisconsin at Madison researchers estimated that the cisco, a cold water fish and important food source for many of Wisconsin’s iconic game fish, could disappear from most of the state’s lakes by 2100 because of the warming climate. In a new study in the journal PLoS One, lead author Sapna Sharma found that climate change could pose a greater risk to the cisco than even invasive species such as the rainbow smelt. "By 2100, 30 to 70 percent of cisco populations could be extirpated in Wisconsin due to climate change," said Sharma. Cisco are found in approximately 170 inland lakes in Wisconsin currently, but face risks above habitat loss from invasive species because it depends on colder water.
For additional information see: Press Release, Abstract

Arctic Permafrost Melting Will Turn North from Carbon Sink to Source: Study

The layer of permanently frozen plant and animal matter in the Arctic, known as permafrost, will turn the region into a major source of carbon emissions if it melts, according to a new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Previous predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated that the far north would become a carbon sink as warmer temperatures allowed more vegetation to grow, which would store more carbon. The IPCC prediction, however, did not factor into its model the amount of stored carbon in permafrost that would be released from the warmer temperatures. The study predicted that the Arctic could release as much as 62 billion tons of carbon over the next 100 years, an amount equal to Canada’s 2009 carbon emissions. "This is just a fraction of the amount of carbon that we emit as a species per year, but it’s important," said lead author Charles Koven. "The big question is whether that’s going to continue.” In addition, annual emissions of methane, a much more potent greenhouse gas, are expected to double, according to researchers.
For additional information see: CBC

Tar Sands Pipeline Poised to Clear State Department Hurdle Amid Large Protest at White House

Amid a two-week long protest in front of the White House, the State Department was due to publish its final environmental assessment of the Keystone XL pipeline on August 26, which would make it easier for the pipeline to be built. The proposed pipeline would traverse several Western and Midwestern states to bring oil from tar sands in Western Canada to refineries on the Gulf Coast of Texas. Canada’s environment ministry estimated that production of the tar sands would double in the next decade and increase the greenhouse gas emissions from the country’s oil and gas sector by one-third. Meanwhile, the protest has resulted in the arrest of more than 275 demonstrators, including 350.org co-founder Bill McKibben. “This is the primary test for Obama and the environment in the period between now and the election. [Denial of the pipeline permit] is his chance to do something on his own, without interference from Congress,” said McKibben. Release of the final environmental assessment triggers a 90-day public comment period before the decision goes to President Obama for approval or denial. While TransCanada, developer of the pipeline, stated the United States would become more dependent on Nigeria, Venezuela, and Libya if the pipeline is not built, analysts note that the oil coming from Canada to be refined in Texas may very well end up in Latin America or Europe because the companies Shell, Total, and Valero, who have signed agreements to take oil from Keystone XL, run refineries in Texas’ free trade zone which makes it easier to ship oil overseas.
For additional information see: Washington Post, Guardian, Politico

Proposed Australian Coal Mine Taken to Court Over Climate Impact

Landowners and the environmental organization Friends of the Earth have filed a lawsuit against a proposed coal mine in Australia on the basis of climate change, on August 22. The case seeks to ban development of the $6.2 billion Wandoan mine, which would export approximately 30 million tons of coal per year. Litigants in the case said the project will cause irreversible damage to Australia’s natural icons like the Great Barrier Reef and the tropical rain forests in the northeast from climate change. The mining company Xstrata will call witnesses who will testify to the local economic benefits of the mining project, while local landowners claim the project will destroy much of the region’s grazing and crop land as well as affect the air, soil and water quality, local wildlife and the health of livestock.
For additional information see: AFP, AUDIO: Australian Broadcasting Corporation

Bhutan PM: Climate Change Impact on Our Hydrology is Severe

The prime minister of Bhutan, a country situated in the Himalayan mountains of Asia, issued a dire warning of the impending negative impacts of climate change on the productivity of his country. Speaking to Agence France Presse, Prime Minister Jigmi Thinley said that his country is already facing challenges from dryer winters and wetter summers. "The glaciers are retreating very rapidly, some are even disappearing. The flow of water in our river system is fluctuating in ways that are very worrying," he said. Bhutan gets the majority of its power from hydroelectric dams that are fed by glaciers in the Himalayan mountains. In the summer months, river systems are overflowing, threatening people who live in the valleys below. During the winter months, the rivers dry up much more than before, creating a shortage of hydroelectric power that the country relies upon. Bhutan has plans to build more hydroelectric capacity to foster its growth and export power to neighboring India. However, climate change threatens that plan. Bhutan will host a conference with India, Nepal, and Bangladesh in November to discuss ways to reduce climate change impacts on the Himalayas, which are a source of water for 1.9 billion people.
For additional information see: AFP

Study Proves that Climate Change is Tipping Point for World Conflict

On August 25, a study published in Nature found that during the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) weather pattern, civil conflict increased by six percent from non-weather related conflict. The ENSO cycle changes rainfall and temperatures throughout Africa, the Mideast, India, Southeast Asia, the Americas, and Australia, and disrupts weather patterns in over 90 countries worldwide. Researchers used data from 1950 to 2004 to show that the probability of new civil conflicts in the tropics doubles during El Nino years compared to La Nina years. "What [the study shows] and [shows] beyond any doubt is that even in this modern world, climate variations have an impact on the propensity of people to fight," said Mark Cane, a scientist at Columbia University. Some scientists are skeptical of the connection the study drew between climate change and violence. "The study fails to improve on our understanding of the causes of armed conflicts, as it makes no attempt to explain the reported association between ENSO cycles and conflict risk," said Halvard Buhaug, of the Peace Research Institute. Though not all scientists agree on the correlation between El Nino and political instability, they do agree that at-risk governments could use the data to prepare for potential conflicts during times of ENSO-related weather.
For additional information see: AFP, Science Daily, Nature, Abstract

Drought Limits the Positive Effects of CO2 and Heat On Plant Growth in Future Climate

On August 23, a research paper in the journal Global Change Biology found that prolonged exposure to heat limits plant growth, even if there is an increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. The study concluded that prolonged exposure to heat dries the soil, effecting nitrogen production and plant growth. "When you've previously seen a significantly higher plant growth at elevated CO2 concentrations, it is typically because it has been controlled studies, where only the CO2 concentration was changed. We fundamentally had the theory that you have to look at the combination of the different climate variables, since the plants in the future will be exposed to multiple changes simultaneously," stated Klaus Steenberg Larsen, lead author on the study.
For additional information see: Science Daily, Abstract

Study Finds Mental Illness Increases as Result of Climate Change

A study released by the Climate Institute found that increased incidence of mental illness stemming from severe weather events will increase due to climate change. The study focused on the effects of Australia’s 10-year drought, the increased frequency and intensity of bush fires, and cyclones and floods. A loss of social cohesion after these events may lead to anxiety, depression, post-traumatic stress and substance abuse, according to researchers. For example, the suicide rate in rural areas has increased by 8 per cent, while one in ten elementary school children have shown signs of post-traumatic stress disorder after Cyclone Larry in 2006. “[R]ecent conditions are entirely consistent with the best scientific predictions: as the world warms so the weather becomes wilder, with big consequences for people's health and well-being,” the report says.
For additional information see: Sydney Morning Herald, International Business Times, Report

Reducing Soot Emissions May Be Fastest, Most Economical Approach to Global Warming

According to a new study, cutting soot emissions could be one of the fastest and more economical ways to reduce global warming. Soot emissions consist of tiny particles known as “black carbon” and come from diesel cars, buses, trucks, ships, aircraft, agriculture and construction machines and even from dung burned as fuel in developing countries. It warms the planet by absorbing light and emitting heat back into the atmosphere and also by blocking light reflected from Earth’s surface. Even though soot is second only to carbon in terms of its contribution to global warming, it is often overlooked in climate models. According to Stanford University’s Mark Z. Jacobson, author of the study, reducing soot emissions could lower the temperature in parts of the Arctic by up to 3 degrees Fahrenheit within just 15 years. The reason is that while carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere for years, soot only remains for a few weeks. Reducing soot emissions would have a more immediate impact on the atmosphere than reducing carbon emissions. Further, the technology already exists to reduce up to 90 percent of soot emissions in only 5-10 years if aggressive policies are enacted.
For additional information see: Science Daily, American Chemical Society

Heat-Related Deaths Among Elderly to Rise in California

An aging population and global warming will lead to a steep increase in heat-related deaths, according to a new report commissioned by the California Air Resources Board. The report found that heat spells lasting 10 days or more could rise two to 10 times by 2090 and the number of heat-related deaths among people 65 and older could rise five to 17 times. Researchers from the University of Miami and Kent State University used two climate models and various population growth and socio-economic scenarios to estimate the impacts in nine major urban areas of the state. Currently, an average of 508 elderly people die from excessive heat in these areas each year. “The public is generally under-educated about the dangers of extreme heat and heat waves," said the researchers. "Because of this, many of the most vulnerable people are unaware of the risks associated with excessive heat events or of the proper steps to take to reduce their risk to heat exposure.” The report recommends that California set up extreme heat warning systems to inform weather forecasters of which days are most dangerous to human health, and that every major California city establish a heat-health task force.
For additional information see: Environmental News Service, Orange County Register

Climate Change May Increase Asthma-Related Emergency Room Visits

A study conducted by researchers at the Mount Sinai School of Medicine has revealed that changes in atmospheric ozone levels could increase asthma attacks in children by an estimated 7.3 percent over 1990s levels by the 2020s. Researchers calculated the increase by comparing regional climate and air quality data to asthma-related emergency room visits for 14 counties within the New York Metropolitan area. They used regional and atmospheric chemistry models to simulate the expected changes in ozone levels for the months of June through August in the 2020s to determine the increases in asthma-related emergency room visits. While the median increase was 7.3 percent, each county varied from as low as a 5.2 percent increase to as high as a 10.2 percent increase. According to lead author Dr. Perry Sheffield, "This study is a jumping off point to evaluate other outcomes including cost utilization, doctors' visits, missed school days, and a general understanding of the overall burden of climate change on children with asthma." The study was published in the journal American Journal of Preventive Medicine.
For additional information see: Science Daily, Study Abstract

GAO Study: Geo-Engineering Technologies Not Yet Ready to Combat Climate Change

Climate engineering technologies are not yet developed enough for large-scale implementation, according to a study conducted by the Government Accountability Office (GAO). The proposed technologies fall into one of two categories: carbon dioxide removal or solar radiation management. Carbon dioxide removal would reduce atmospheric CO2 and, therefore, reduce heat trapped by the atmosphere. Alternatively, solar radiation management involves dispersing reflective materials into the atmosphere or space in order to scatter and deflect incoming radiation from the sun. The GAO ranked the “technological readiness” of each option on a scale of one to nine, with the “direct air capture of carbon dioxide” receiving a three, the highest rank. The GAO cited cost, effectiveness and adverse consequences as the highest causes for concern in geo-engineering technologies. The GAO also surveyed 1,006 U.S. adults unfamiliar with geo-engineering technology and stated that “when given information on the technologies, they tend to be open to research but concerned about safety.”
For additional information see: Scientific American, GAO Report

Climate Change Threatens California Chinook Salmon

A recent study found that populations of spring-run Chinook salmon may be depleted in California by the end of the century because the waters will be too warm to spawn. The researchers used a model of the Butte Creek watershed, and considered hydropowered dams located on the river, as well as several models that project climate change through 2099. Nearly every scenario suggested that rising temperatures will render the salmon incapable of spawning. According to the lead author of the study, the depletion of salmon is avoidable, but the solutions would affect hydroelectric power generation. One option would likely require reducing hydroelectric power generation during the warmest months, which are also the peak months for energy consumption in California. Other potential solutions include holding water for salmon at other locations, and dumping cooler water into the stream during heat waves. The study was published in the Journal of Water Resources and Management.
For additional information see: Summit County Voice, Science Daily, Abstract

Pole to Pole Data Collection Flights Reinforce Mathematical Models of Global Warming

Data collected from several years of pole-to-pole flights in a project known as HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) reinforce the mathematical model predictions that climate change is impacted by human activities, according to scientists associated with the project. Data from HIPPO have been used to quantify processes of carbon cycling that are important in managing greenhouse gas emissions. The flights enabled scientists to observe the distribution of carbon dioxide (CO2) to test the predictions of previous mathematical models about climate change. One of the most significant research milestones for the project was quantifying seasonal fluxes of CO2 that are processed by the land plants and the ocean. The studies, which included collecting and quantifying over 80 different gases, also include strong evidence that areas of the ocean surface that have been exposed due to melting ice caps are emitting methane, a potent greenhouse gas. (emphasis added)
For additional information see: LA Times, Science Daily, Science News
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Coalition for Climate Change Study and Action

CLIMATE CHANGE NEWS FOR AUGUST 2011

2011-08-17T13:22:00.000-07:00

CC NEWS FOR AUG. 2011

Sir Paul Nurse, the President of the British Royal Society, has recorded a 4-part series of YouTube videos, each about 15 minutes long, called Science Under Attack. He examines the difficulty scientists have in communicating with the public on complex issues like climate change. At: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KRR0SavUHtw

NEEP (the Northeast Energy Efficiency Partnerships) has posted useful information on the transition to much more energy efficient lighting. At: http://neep.org/uploads/NEEPResources/id719/Understanding%20the%20Lighting%20efficiency%20standards%20transition.pdf

The Union of Concerned Scientists has posted a Climate Hot Map showing impacts of climate change around the world on people, freshwater, oceans ecosystems and temperature – lots of good information. Take a look at: http://www.climatehotmap.org/

On July 14 the Associated Press published an article titled, Power company AEP puts hold on carbon capture project, cites economy, uncertain climate policy. The American Electric Power Company announced that it is putting on hold its plans to develop a commercial scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) project in West Virginia. The project, partially supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, was to capture and store about 1.5 million tons a year of CO2 and store it deep underground. The reasons for stopping the work were the absence of a price on carbon emissions and a low price for natural gas, making it difficult to justify the expense of removing emissions from coal. At: http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/power-company-aep-puts-hold-on-carbon-capture-project-cites-economy-uncertain-climate-policy/2011/07/14/gIQArTy5DI_story.html

On July 19 Look to the Stars announced that Al Gore has launched a new project called the Climate Reality Project. Mark your calendars now for September 14-15. He wrote:
"Using the same deceitful playbook as big tobacco used years before to mislead the public about the dangers of smoking, oil and coal companies and their allies are now deceiving the public about climate change. They have nearly unlimited resources to sow doubt, but we have one critical advantage: Reality is on our side."
“Climate Reality will start with a global event on September 14-15 called 24 Hours of Reality. Over 24 hours, in multiple languages and in 24 time zones, we will bring the world together to reveal the full truth, scope and impact of the climate crisis." See: http://www.looktothestars.org/news/6638-al-gore-launches-climate-reality-project#ixzz1TErHI6Nc

Michael Ruppert’s Collapse Network posted a short YouTube video, Famine Stalks Southern Somalia, about the desperate situation of starving refugees who have fled in the face of a prolonged drought and civil war. At: http://www.collapsenet.com/free-resources/must-see-videos/item/1428-famine-stalks-southern-somalia
Unfortunately, climate models predict increasing drought if that part of Africa and in many other failed and failing states, including Yemen and Afghanistan, where water supplies are already inadequate for expanding populations.

On July 21 Alison Fitzgerald of Bloomberg News posted an article titled, Koch, Exxon Mobil Among Corporations Helping Write State Law. In it she described a legislative action group, the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), funded by the Koch brothers, Exxon Mobil and others, which lets them work with state legislators and provides ‘model legislation” that promotes the financial interests and ideological agenda of the supporting companies. Bob Edgar, President of Common Cause, said, “This is just another hidden way for corporations to buy their way into the legislative process.” As a tax-exempt organization, ALEC doesn’t have to disclose its corporate donors, and Tea Party legislators can come to Washington with all expenses paid by supporting companies as “scholarship funds.” “ALEC was founded by the late Representative Henry Hyde of Illinois, a Republican who served in the U.S. Congress for 22 years, and the late political activist Paul Weyrich, who co- founded the Heritage Foundation.” It has been a major supporter of the TEA Party. It is a serious threat to efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or to deal with climate change. At: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-21/koch-exxon-mobil-among-corporations-helping-write-state-laws.html

You can see an excellent Bloomberg video about the history and anti-environmental views and actions of the Koch brothers at: http://www.bloomberg.com/video/70603974/

On July 25, 2011 Daniel Weiss and Arpita Bhattacharyya of the Center for American Progress posted Slideshow: Wet, Hot, Dirty American Summer - Top 10 American Vacation Spots the House’s Environment Spending Bill Could Ruin. It shows photos of 10 great vacation spots in national parks and tells how they could be spoiled if U.S. H.R. 2584, the Interior Environment FY 2012 Appropriations bill, became law. It’s an unparalleled assault not only on public lands, but also on protection of public health and welfare. Fortunately, Pres. Obama would veto it if it got through the Senate. At: http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/07/climate_vacation.html

Yahoo!News posted an article on July 25 titled, Holy Land Clerics Launch Interfaith Earth Forum. It reported that Christian, Jewish and Muslim leaders in the Holy Land are planning to launch an interfaith environmental campaign, to include an international conference of religious leaders in New York ahead of the 2010 UN General Assembly. A statement calls on “all people of faith to reduce their personal emissions of greenhouse gases and to urge their political leaders to adopt strong, binding, science-based targets for the reduction of greenhouse gases in order to avert the worst dangers of climate crisis.” At: http://news.yahoo.com/holy-land-clerics-launch-interfaith-earth-forum-113212070.html
I recently learned about an organization based in Eugene, Oregon, called Our Children’s Trust – Protecting Earth’s Climate for Future Generations. It has a list of states showing climate impacts for each state. Legal petitions on behalf of children were filed in each state in May. Check it out at: http://www.ourchildrenstrust.org/legal-action/petitions

On July 27 there was a debate on the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) in Bergen New Jersey between Jeff Tittel of the Sierra Club and Steve Lonegan of Americans for Prosperity, a far-right Republican organization that has opposed RGGI in favor of more fossil fuel burning. You can watch the debate at: http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/16278902#utm_campaign=synclickback&source=http://americansforprosperity.org/072811-lonegan-scores-tko-vs-tittel-rumble-over-rggi-debate-0&medium=16278902

On July 29 the EPA posted a news release, President Obama Announces Historic 54.5 mpg Fuel Efficiency Standard/Consumers will save $1.7 trillion at the pump, $8K per vehicle by 2025. The agreement included 13 major auto manufacturers and will nearly double the fuel efficiency per vehicle by 2025. Obama called it, “the single most important step we’ve ever taken as a nation to reduce our dependence on foreign oil.” At: http://yosemite.epa.gov/opa/admpress.nsf/0/0019C092CCAE8AC2852578DC0056DED0

Jim Hansen recently posted a paper titled Baby Lauren and the Kool Aid, giving his thoughts on how to deal with the climate crisis, including the roles of nuclear power and renewable energy. It’s well worth reading. (Lauren is his new granddaughter.) At: http://www.columbia.edu/%7Ejeh1/mailings/2011/20110729_BabyLauren.pdf

The July 30 NY Times had an article by Mireya Navarro titled, Coming Together to Pray, and Also to Find Reduced-Rate Energy Deals. Faith communities in the Washington, DC area are coming together to negotiate both lower electric rates and more energy from renewable energy sources. In this way they can both use money to help the poor that would have gone to utility companies, and also fulfill their desire to be better stewards of God’s creation. At: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/31/science/earth/31churches.html?ref=science

Lisa Friedman has an article in the August 2 issue of Scientific American titled, Will Climate Change Make Life Harder for Girls? She points out that teenage girls - especially in developing countries - suffer disproportionately in droughts, floods and other natural disasters that are becoming more common as the climate changes. This is an issue of social justice that needs to be addressed. At: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=will-climate-change-make-life-harder-for-girls

NY Times blog Green has an article on Aug. 3 by John Broder titled, Climate Change an Extra Burden for Native Americans, Study Says. The report, by the National Wildlife Federation and others, says, “The high dependence of tribes upon their lands and natural resources to sustain their economic, cultural and spiritual practices, the relatively poor state of their infrastructure and the great need for financial and technical resources to recover from such events all contribute to the disproportionate impact on tribes.” This is yet another example of a lack of social justice, where those who are least responsible suffer most. At: http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/03/climate-change-an-extra-burden-for-native-americans-study-says/

An article by Don Hopey in the Aug. 3 Pittsburgh Post-Gazette was titled, EPA in 1987 Found fracking fouled well water in W. Va. He reported, “The EPA finding was unearthed by Environmental Working Group, which conducted a year-long investigation of the incident and released a report on the finding, "Cracks in the Facade," today.” This was a case nearly 25 years ago where the EPA established that drinking water wells were contaminated by fracking for natural gas. “In 2005 hydraulic fracturing was exempted from regulation and enforcement under the federal Safe Drinking Water Act based on a 2004 EPA study of fracked methane wells in coal beds.” At: www.post-gazette.com/pg/11215/1164864-100.stm

On August 4 the EPA issued a news release titled, Obama Administration Advances Efforts to Protect Health of U.S. Communities Overburdened by Pollution / Federal Agencies Sign Environmental Justice Memorandum of Understanding. EPA Administrator Lisa P. Jackson said, "All too often, low-income, minority and Native Americans live in the shadows of our society's worst pollution, facing disproportionate health impacts and greater obstacles to economic growth in communities that can’t attract businesses and new jobs.” At: http://yosemite.epa.gov/opa/admpress.nsf/0/28420A5AE8467CF5852578E200635712

The following items are from the Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI), Carol Werner, Executive Director. Past issues of its newsletter are posted on its website under "publications"  at http://www.eesi.org/publications/Newsletters/CCNews/ccnews.htm
EESI’s newsletter is intended for all interested parties, particularly the policymaker community.

House Budget Writers Seek to Cut EPA Funding, Block CO2 Rules

The House Appropriations Committee passed a spending bill that cuts funding to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and halts regulation of greenhouse gases for one year. The Republican-led committee reported the appropriations bill by a vote of 28-18 on July 12. The bill also includes spending cuts for other agencies. The bill now goes to the full House. Republicans said the EPA’s regulations and activities harm the economy. The bill, as reported, cuts the Obama Administration’s funding request for the EPA by 20 percent. It would also temporarily block greenhouse gas regulations on large industrial facilities. Since Jan. 2, proposals to build those facilities or modify existing facilities must include an analysis of the “best available control technology” to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The EPA plans to issue greenhouse gas limits for new power plants and oil refineries later this year.
For additional information see: Bloomberg, Federal Times

Researchers Find Oceans Absorbing Less Carbon Dioxide

Warmer global temperatures are reducing the ability of the oceans to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, according to a new study. Because CO2 dissolves in water, the oceans act as an important sink for CO2, absorbing about one-third of all human-caused carbon emissions. But warmer water cannot hold as much CO2. Any decrease in the rate of uptake may point to the need for more urgent steps to reduce CO2 emissions. Separating the effect of the natural variability from influence of changes in temperature has been difficult for researchers, however. University of Wisconsin-Madison scientists sought to overcome that challenge by combining existing data to examine three large ocean regions over a three-decade period. "Because the ocean is so variable, we need at least 25 years' worth of data to really see the effect of carbon accumulation in the atmosphere," said researcher Galen McKinley. "This is a big issue in many branches of climate science -- what is natural variability, and what is climate change?" The study, published July 10 in Nature Geoscience, provided some of the first observational evidence of the effect of climate change’s on CO2 absorption in the oceans.
For additional information see: Science Daily, VOA News, Study Abstract

Declines of Animals and Plants Matching Scientists’ Predictions

One in 10 species could face extinction by 2100 if the current rate of climate change continues, according to a new study that provides more evidence on the threat to global biodiversity. A University of Exeter research team assessed the risk of climate change to animals and plants by examining how earlier scientific predictions match actual data being recorded today. On average, scientists’ warnings were on the mark. “Our study is a wake-up call for action,” said lead author Ilya Maclean. “The many species that are already declining could become extinct if things continue as they are. It is time to stop using the uncertainties as an excuse for not acting. Our research shows that the harmful effects of climate change are already happening and, if anything, exceed predictions.” The Exeter team reviewed 200 predictions and compared them to 130 reports of actual changes to animal and plant populations. For years, scientists have tried to predict future effects of climate change, but those warnings were received cautiously because of uncertainty in how species would actually respond. Today, however, declines are being observed. In Yellowstone National Park, for instance, the population of the blotched tiger salamander is half the population recorded two decades ago. Similarly, the park’s population of spotted frogs fell by 68 percent, and the population of chorus frogs fell by 75 percent. The study was published July 12 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
For additional information see: Science Daily, Time, Study Abstract

Research Shows Promise in Adapting Rice to Climate Change

Scientists are making progress in adapting a key food staple to the impacts of climate change. A U.S. Geological Survey-led research project successfully colonized two commercial varieties of rice with a type of fungi. The rice showed an increased tolerance to drought, which is important because scientists expect climate change to increase the duration and severity of drought in already water-scarce areas of the globe. Rice is a key staple of diets worldwide. It provides nearly half the daily calories for the world’s population. The next step for the research team is to confer greater heat tolerance to rice. Rice production decreases by 10 percent for each degree Celsius increase in temperature.
For additional information see: Science Daily, Study Abstract

Study: Rising CO2 Levels Trigger Release of Other Greenhouse Gases

Rising levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) will cause an increased release of nitrogen oxide (NO2) and methane from wetlands, forests and farmlands according to a study in the British journal Nature. More CO2 in the atmosphere causes many plants to grow faster and use water more efficiently, leaving more moisture in the soil. That allows soil microbes to produce more NO2 and methane, according to the lead author of the study, Kees Jan van Groenigen of Northern Arizona University. NO2 is about 300 times more powerful as a greenhouse gas than CO2 and methane is about 21 times as powerful. The study suggested global warming could be occurring faster than previously thought and complex computer models used to project climate change may need to be adjusted.
For additional information see: Reuters

Climate Change to Increase Flood Plains

A study to be released later this summer will predict flood plains will grow 40-45 percent in the next 90 years. Stronger storms coupled with sea-level rise of 0.75 and 1.9 meters will force seawater deeper inland by 2100, according to the study, affecting millions of homes and businesses, and doubling the number of policies in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). According to geologist Mark Crowell, who is overseeing the study at the Federal Emergency Management Agency, there is “a need for FEMA to incorporate the effects of climate change more directly into various aspects of the NFIP." The NFIP has not yet directly accounted for the impact of climate change on flooding. "We've got to start managing these issues now," according to David Maurstad who ran NFIP under President George W. Bush. Many in the insurance industry acknowledge increased financial losses from violent weather but blame increased population and the expansion of new construction.
For additional information see: New York Times

Climate Change to Cause More Frequent Fires in National Parks, Study Finds

According to a study in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, climate change will cause Yellowstone National Park and the Grand Tetons to experience large fires more frequently. Over the past 10,000 years, fires have occurred in the area every 100 to 300 years. The study indicated that by the end of the century, large fires are likely to occur every 20 to 30 years and the average annual burn area will be almost 400 square miles. "What surprised us is how early the changes become so extreme," said lead author Anthony Westerling. "By mid-century, the climate conditions combined with fire frequency are going to be incompatible with the kinds of forests that grow there now. There is going to be a transformation of the landscape. It's going to look really different." The dominant lodgepole pines will not be able to regenerate in the short time span between fires and will give way to faster growing aspen, Douglas fir or shrubs and grasslands. Such changes will also impact the region’s wildlife, water flows and carbon storage, according to the study.
For additional information see: AFP, LA Times, Discovery, Abstract

Study: Conservative White Males More Likely to Be Climate Change Deniers

Conservative white males are more likely than other Americans to deny climate change, according to a new study in the journal Global Environmental Change. "The most prominent denialists are conservative white males," wrote co-authors Aaron M. McCright and Riley E. Dunlap. The researchers examined data gathered by the Gallup Organization during 2001 to 2010 from over 10,000 adults to determine attitudes about climate change. The analysis found 29.6 percent of conservative white males believed the effects of global warming “will never happen” and 58.5 percent do not believe global temperature increases are caused by human activity. Almost two-thirds (65.1 percent) of conservative white males said the media exaggerates climate change and 39.1 percent do not worry about global warming. The authors also found that conservative white males claimed a more thorough understanding of climate change than other adults, and those claiming the greatest understanding most likely to be the strongest deniers. "What is most sobering, especially for the scientific community and climate change communicators, is that climate change denial has actually increased in the U.S. general public between 2001 and 2010, although primarily due to a significant increase in the past two years which may prove abnormal in the long run," wrote the authors.
For additional information see: Guardian, Conservation Magazine, Abstract

Insurance Companies Probe Impact of Climate Change on Future Weather Events

Several major insurance companies are taking steps to include the future effects of climate change in their business models. Claims resulting from this year’s floods, droughts, wildfires, and other extreme weather events in the United States are expected to negate any profits for the insurance and reinsurance industry. “Last year in Texas it was all floods and this year it’s drought,” said Andrew Castaldi of Swiss Re America Corp., a reinsurance company. “Is that climate change or just natural variability? We’re investigating whether these phenomena are simply normal variability or normal variability with some climate change influence.” Insurance companies want to price the potential effects of climate change, and set aside appropriate capital reserves to handle future claims. “We don’t see it as a danger in the next 30 years, but if we don’t do something to contain greenhouse gas emissions now, this is definitely a challenge for the insurance business model in the second half of this century,” said Peter Hoppe of Munich Re, another reinsurance company.
For additional information see: CNBC, Munich Re News Release

Near-Record Melting of Ice in Arctic Ocean Opens Safe Route for Cargo

Ice cover in the Arctic melted to such an extent this summer that previously perilous waters are open to easy and safe navigation, the Russian climate monitoring agency reported. The melting is occurring at a near-record pace. “Since the beginning of August, icebreaker-free sailing is open on almost all the (northern shipping) routes,” the agency said in a statement posted Aug. 3 on its website. The Arctic Ocean could be entirely free of ice during the summer by 2050 if the current pace of melting keeps up. Russia would like the northern passage through the Arctic to rival the Suez Canal in moving cargo and become a year-round route. For cargo moving between European and Asian ports, the northern route is one-third shorter. Right now, it is used from July to November and ice-breakers ensure safe passage.
For additional information see: Reuters, Bloomberg

Small Increases in Water Temperatures Can Cause Collapse of Ice Shelves, Study Says

An analysis of prehistoric, large scale discharges of icebergs in the North Atlantic Ocean shows small temperature increases of subsurface water can cause a rapid collapse of ice shelves. The findings indicate a 3-4 degree Celsius increase in water temperatures was enough to cause breakup of the Laurentide Ice Sheet in what is now Canada. According to the researchers, present day temperature increases and potentially shifting ocean currents could greatly increase ice melt and hasten sea level rise. The study was conducted by researchers from Oregon State University, the University of Wisconsin, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology and was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
For additional information see: Science Daily, Study Abstract

Crops with Deeper Roots Can Lower CO2 Levels, Study Finds

Replacing today’s crops with deeper-rooted plants could dramatically lower atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels, a new study found. Deeper root systems promote greater sequestration of CO2 in the soil. The University of Manchester study found that replacing today’s crops with new crops that have roots that extend one meter deeper into the soil could double the amount of CO2 sequestered in the soil from agriculture. Deeper-rooted crops also are more drought resistant. Most of today’s crops do not have root systems that extend below one meter. Many deeper-rooted plants exist, but have not been bred for agriculture. “While there is a way to go before such crops might have, for example, the grain yields of present day cereals, their breeding and deployment seems a very promising avenue for sustainable agriculture,” said study author Douglas Kell. The study was published in the Annals of Botany.
For additional information see: Science Daily, Study Abstract

Warming Could Aid Fungi in Attacking Forests, Study Finds

Climate change could weaken trees and make them more susceptible to devastating diseases from fungi, say researchers who studied a mass extinction of prehistoric conifer forests. Today’s trees are facing threats from fungi-related diseases, such as Dutch elm disease and sudden oak death. Scientists are interested in any link between changes in temperature and water availability and the resiliency of trees to disease. The study found that a mass die-off of prehistoric forests was aided by a rapid change in climate that weakened trees and made them less able to fight off attacks from fungi. The study was conducted by a biologist at the University of California-Berkeley and colleagues in Britain and the Netherlands who examined fossil records from around the globe. The study was published online Aug. 5 in Geology.
For additional information see: The Bay Citizen, UC Berkeley News Release, Study Abstract

Researcher Says Arctic Ice Vanishing Faster than Predicted

The Arctic Ocean may be free of sea ice during the summer much earlier than scientists previously believed because the ice is thinning four times faster than computer models have predicted, an Massachusetts Institute of Technology study found. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report, which was issued in 2007, predicted a summer ice-free Arctic by 2100. In a new study, Pierre Rampal of MIT said summer ice will disappear much earlier, probably within a few decades. Thinner ice breaks up more readily, and can get carried on currents through the Fram Strait to warmer waters to the south, enhancing melting. The study will be published in a future edition of Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans.
For additional information see: The Vancouver Sun, MIT News Release

Scientists Find Forests Remove One Third of Fossil Fuel Emissions Each Year

The Earth’s forests absorb a staggering amount of carbon from the atmosphere each year, an amount equivalent to one-third of annual fossil fuel emissions, according to a new study. The study is the first to clearly identify volumes of greenhouse gases (GHGs) taken up by tropical, temperate and boreal forests. "What this research tells us is that forests play a much larger role as carbon sinks as a result of tree growth and forest expansion,” said study co-author Pep Canadell of CSIRO, Australia’s national science agency. The study also allows scientists to quantify the impact of deforestation, and it’s much bigger than previously thought. Authors say the study shows why re-growing forests and conserving forests are necessary to mitigating GHG emissions. The study was published online in Science.
For additional information see: Science Daily, Study Abstract

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Coalition for Climate Change Study and Action

CLIMATE CHANGE NEWS FOR JULY 2011

2011-07-13T08:45:00.000-07:00

CC NEWS FOR JULY 2011

On April 4 the EPA announced the formation of a faith-based and neighborhood partnerships initiative to support environmental education and healthier families. You can learn more about it at: http://yosemite.epa.gov/opa/admpress.nsf/0/D49A036B7F10292F85257876007036DE. You can subscribe to electronic newsletters about it and other topics at the EPA and other U.S. government agencies at: https://service.govdelivery.com/service/multi_subscribe.html?origin=&code=USAEPA

Tim DeChristopher, a student at the University of Utah, crossed a threshold when he decided to engage in civil disobedience to interfere with a Dept. of the Interior auction of public lands for oil and gas drilling near Zion National Park in Utah. An article, Utah UU convicted for environmental activism, describing his conviction in federal court, appeared in the March issue of UU World at: http://www.uuworld.org/news/articles/178994.shtml (UU stands for Unitarian-Universalist.) You can watch a short YouTube video of his statement after his conviction at: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cae5Pr7CHgk A resolution by his church congregation, supporting his action, can be found at: http://slcuu.org/resolution-supporting-ethical-commitment-7th-principle
Tim is to be sentenced on July 26. His action raises the issue: When is peaceful civil disobedience the right thing to do?

In May, the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP), the scientific arm of the eight-nation Arctic Council, issued a report titled, Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic. Among its findings are that temperatures during the period 2005-2010 have been the highest ever recorded in the Arctic and that the rate of warming is accelerating; temperatures in permafrost have increased by up to 2ºC, releasing unknown amounts of carbon dioxide and methane. Arctic glaciers, ice caps and the Greenland Ice Sheet contributed more than 40% of the global rate of sea level rise (about 3 mm/yr) between 2003 and 2008; sea level by 2100 may be higher by as much as 1.6 meters (5 feet). A 16-page Executive Summary is available at: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/88367-arctic-ice-melt-2011-executivesummary.html

pv magazine ran an article by Jonathan Gifford on June 20 titled, Ceremony marks construction of the world’s largest solar power plant. It described a groundbreaking ceremony in Blythe, CA, in the Mojave Desert for two 242 MW solar thermal power plants. The plants should be connected to the grid in 2014. They are the first stage of a 4-plant facility with a total capacity of 1000 MW – comparable in scale to a coal or nuclear plant, and are expected to cost $2.8 billion. At: http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/archive/2011/june/beitrag/ceremony-marks-construction-of-the-worlds-largest-solar-power-plant_100003391/

Living on Earth has a weekly environmental news and information broadcast distributed by Public Radio International (PRI). Energy and climate change issues are often featured. The National Science Foundation (NSF) provides major funding. You can read a transcript or listen to a recording of items of interest. On May 24 Flammable Gas In Drinking Water From Hydraulic Fracking aired. On June 24 there was a related item, Natural Gas and Greenhouse Gasses, pointing out that fracking may be leaking enough methane – a powerful greenhouse gas –to pose a problem for climate change. At: www.loe.org. Click on Show Archive to see past broadcasts.

The Institute of Physics has a web site physicsworld.com with a 2-minute YouTube rap titled, I’m a Climate Scientist. It’s fast-paced, but right on target. If you want to see more, there’s a 1-minute 43-second YouTube rap called, Supermodels Take it Off for Climate Change, showing what it takes to get down to 350 ppm. Both are at: http://physicsworld.com/blog/2011/05/the_climate_science_rap.html

Ian Urbina had an article in the NY Times for June 25 titled, Insiders Sound an Alarm Amid a Natural Gas Rush. Based on emails among market analysts and industry insiders, the golden age of gas from fracking shale may be overblown. In some cases wells are producing considerably less after only one year of operation, suggesting that they will not be productive for 10-15 years. In others, the value of the gas obtained doesn’t justify the costs of acquiring land and drilling. And of course the environmental damage to water and air has yet to be determined. At: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/26/us/26gas.html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha2

The Solar Energy Industries Association has published its U.S. Solar Market Insight – 2010 Year in Review. The Executive Summary says, “ 2010 was a banner year for the solar energy market in the United States. In contrast to U.S. GDP growth of 2.8%, the U.S. solar market grew 67% in value in 2010. Not only did the market expand greatly, but it showed substantial diversity across market segments, geography, and technologies. Solar is growing quickly across the U.S. at the residential, commercial, and utility scale levels.” The U.S. market grew from $3.6B to $6.0 B in 2010. At: http://www.seia.org/galleries/pdf/SMI-YIR-2010-ES.pdf

The July issue of Scientific American has an article by Lee Kump, a professor of geosciences at Penn State University, titled, The Last Great Global Warming. In it he describes his recent work on the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), an event 56 million years ago when a large release of carbon in the form of carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere caused an increase in global temperature of about 5°C (9°F) and an oceanic extinction event. His studies of drill cores from Spitsbergen Island in Norway showed that the release of between 3000 and 10,000 billion tons of carbon (GtC or petagrams of carbon) took longer than scientists had thought – perhaps 20,000 years. The average rate of carbon emissions then (about 1.7 GtC/yr) is much less that the current rate of about 9 GtC/yr from human burning of fossil fuels and forests. He writes, “Furthermore, glaciers and ice sheets are melting and driving sea-level rise; coral reefs are increasingly subject to disease and heat stress; and episodes of drought and flooding are becoming more common. Indeed, shifts in rainfall patterns and rising shorelines as polar ice melts may contribute to mass human migrations on a scale never before seen. Some have already begun.” “Current global warming is on a path to vastly exceed the PETM, but it may not be too late to avoid the calamity that awaits us.”
This article at http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=the-last-great-global-warming follows one in the January issue of Scientific American titled, Casualties of Climate Change: Sea-level Rises Could Displace Tens of Millions at: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=casualties-of-climate-change

John Farrell has an article in Grist for June 26 titled, Value of solar power far exceeds its cost. He writes, “Solar power has a monetary value as much as 10 times higher than its energy value, thanks to its ability to reduce peak demand on the transmission and distribution system, hedge against fuel price increases, and enhance grid and environmental security.” At: http://feeds.grist.org/click.phdo?i=28a0ec65c7c3fe28cf1f00d25c518a72
While I’m not sure about his economic analysis - as he doesn’t mention the health costs of electricity generation from fossil fuels or the damages of climate change - it is clear that a full life cycle analysis, including all externalities, is needed to compare energy technologies fairly.

John Vidal had an article in The Guardian for June 27 titled, Climate change hots up in 2010, the year of extreme weather. He pointed out that 2010 was a record-breaker in a number of ways. “A combination of abnormal climatic phenomena resulted in the year being the hottest, wettest, and in many cases also the driest and coldest in recorded history.” Climate change is more than just rising average temperatures; we are setting new records for extremes. At: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jun/27/climate-change-extreme-weather-2010/print

Jeff Donn of the Associated Press had an article in abc NEWS for June 28 titled, AP IMPACT: NRC and Industry Rewrite Nuke History. In it he points out that 40 years ago, when commercial nuclear power was getting its start in the U.S., the industry said that its plants were designed to operate for 40 years. But they are now saying that the plants can be safely operated for much longer – perhaps as much as 100 years. And the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) appears to be giving extensions with little or no inspection or serious consideration. At:: abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=13945405

Janet Raloff wrote an article in the June 29 issue of ScienceNews titled, AAAS board defends climate scientists. She quoted the following statement issued by the board of directors of the American Association for the Advancement of Science: “AAAS vigorously opposes attacks on researchers that question their personal and professional integrity or threaten their safety based on displeasure with their scientific conclusions.” At: http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/331978/title/AAAS_board_defends_climate_scientists

On July 5 SolarIndustryMag.com reported that domestic production of renewable energy is now greater that that of nuclear power. In the first quarter of 2011 renewable energy sources produced 2.24 quadrillion BTUs – 11.7% of U.S. energy production, compared to 2.12 Quads for U.S. nuclear power. Renewable energy now provides 77% as much energy as domestic crude oil.

Daniel Strain has an article in the July 16 issue of ScienceNews titled, Collapsing Coastlines - How Arctic shores are pulled a-sea. He points out that warming seas and a shorter season of sea ice along the Alaskan coast are causing accelerating rates of loss of land. He writes, “In 2009, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers identified 178 communities struggling with erosion in Alaska, three of which have perhaps a decade before collapsing completely.” Along one 60-kilometer stretch of Alaska's Beaufort Sea coast the mean annual erosion rate doubled from 6.8 meters per year from 1955 to 1979 to 13.6 meters per year from 2002 to 2007. The village of Shishmaref, facing severe coastal erosion rates, has elected to move a few miles inland. The cost may be $200 million. At: http://www.sciencenews.org/view/feature/id/332007/title/Collapsing_Coastlines

The following items are from the Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI), Carol Werner, Executive Director. Past issues of its newsletter are posted on its website under "publications"  at http://www.eesi.org/publications/Newsletters/CCNews/ccnews.htm
EESI’s newsletter is intended for all interested parties, particularly the policymaker community.

Poll Finds Most Americans Worried about Global Warming

Fifty-two percent of the American public is “very worried” or “somewhat worried” about global warming, nearly the same proportion as last year, according to the annual survey, Climate Change in the American Mind survey. Researchers at Yale and George Mason universities polled 1,010 American adults in May 2011 and found only small shifts in public opinion compared to 2010. Sixty-four percent of adults this year say the planet is warming, up from 61 percent in 2010. Only 47 percent, however, responded that human activity is the cause, down from 50 percent in 2010. Thirty-nine percent of respondents agreed that “most scientists think global warming is happening,” up from 34 percent in 2010.
For additional information see: New York Times, Study

Little Progress Made to Extend Kyoto Protocol at Climate Talks

The latest round of international climate talks ended June 17 as a top United Nations official pleaded for world leaders to break a stalemate. "Resolving the future of the Kyoto Protocol is an essential task this year and will require high-level political guidance," said Christina Figueres, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Figueres spoke to reporters in Bonn, Germany after delegates to the negotiations said little progress was made to extend Kyoto past its expiration in 2012. Japan, Canada and Russia won’t agree to an extension of Kyoto and are pushing for a new global pact with carbon dioxide (CO2) limits that would apply to all parties. Kyoto required industrialized nations to limit emissions but did not constrain developing nations. Developing nations, on the other hand, say industrialized nations that bear the historic responsibility for CO2 emissions in the atmosphere must take the lead. The United States is not a party to the treaty.
For additional information see: Reuters, Associated Press

Conference: International Community Must Focus on Climate Disaster Preparedness

International funding and cooperation are needed to allow people in climate vulnerable places to migrate to safer ground, delegates to the Nansen Conference on Climate Change and Displacement in the 21st Century said. Held June 6 and 7 in Oslo, Norway, the conference featured speakers who urged governments and international organizations to shift away from disaster relief in favor of disaster preparedness. Forecasting models are able to more accurately predict episodes of drought and flooding, presenters noted. Last year, millions of people across the globe, in places like Pakistan and China, were displaced by extreme weather events. “Human displacement due to climate change is happening now,” Jonas Gahr Store, Norway's minister of foreign affairs, told conference delegates. “There is no need to debate it.”
For additional information see: Inter Press Service

Study Says Electric Cars Produce Less CO2 Over Their Lifetimes than Gas Cars

Electric cars are still greener than conventional gasoline-powered cars, though it takes a lot of driving to realize a net savings in carbon dioxide (CO2), according to a new analysis that considers the entire lifespan of the vehicles. Largely because of the energy consumed in producing the battery for an electric vehicle, the car has to be driven at least 80,000 miles before it realizes a net savings of CO2 compared to a conventional car. Nearly half of the CO2 associated with an electric car over its lifespan is produced before it rolls out of the factory. The study was conducted for the Low Carbon Vehicle Partnership, which is funded by the British government and industry. It found a standard gas-powered car produces 24 metric tons of CO2 over its lifetime, compared to 19 for a plug-in or battery electric vehicle. More work is needed to reduce CO2 emitted during the manufacturing of electric vehicles, the study says.
For additional information see: The Australian, News Release, Study

Tree Rings Show “Almost Unprecedented” Decline in Mountain Snowpack, Study Says

The decline in snowpack in the northern Rocky Mountains is “almost unprecedented” in magnitude in the past 800 years, a new study concludes. Scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and University of Washington sought to evaluate the uniqueness of the late 20th and early 21st Century decline in snowpack by studying tree rings. Although this year’s snowpack is deep, the trend over the past few decades has been rapid springtime warming to diminish annual snowpack, which influences the growth of tree rings. "I think the findings are pretty significant," said lead author Greg Pederson of the USGS. "It means trees are telling the same stories as computer models and instrument records — that human greenhouse-gas emissions are contributing to the loss of snowpack." Many water supplies in the West rely on mountain snowpack. Today’s water management strategies may be based on assumptions that are no longer reliable, scientists say. The study was published in the journal Science.
For additional information see: The Oregonian, Seattle Times, Study Abstract
Supreme Court Turns Down Emissions Lawsuit; Says EPA Has Authority to Regulate CO2

The U.S. Supreme Court unanimously rejected a lawsuit brought by six states and several conservation groups that sought to force large utilities to cut emissions of greenhouse gases. In the June 20 decision, the justices said the courtroom is not the correct forum to control greenhouse gases. But the justices, including conservatives John Roberts and Antonin Scalia, reaffirmed that the authority to address greenhouse gas emissions rests with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). In 2007, a divided court ruled 5-4 that the Clean Air Act gives the EPA the authority to regulate greenhouse gases. The EPA has issued one rule thus far requiring pre-construction permits to build or modify certain large industrial facilities that emit greenhouse gases, and plans to propose greenhouse gas standards for power plants and refineries in September. The plaintiffs, which included California, Connecticut, Iowa, New York, Rhode Island and Vermont, believe the federal government is acting too slowly.
For additional information see: The New York Times, Associated Press

GAO: President, Congress Need to Set National Climate Change Priorities

Although federal funding for climate change activities is increasing, federal officials lack a shared understanding of the nation’s strategic priorities that would help guide that funding, a new GAO report found. Federal funding for climate change activities increased to $8.8 billion in 2010, up from $4.6 billion in 2003. More than half of the funding is spent on technology to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide. At the request of Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA), GAO surveyed and interviewed federal officials. GAO found federal officials do not have a shared understanding of strategic priorities. “This is in part due to inconsistent messages articulated in strategic plans and other policy documents,” GAO reported. The report recommended that the nation establish federal strategic climate change priorities. The report, “Climate Change: Improvements Needed to Clarify National Priorities and Better Align Them with Federal Funding Decisions,” was released June 20.
For additional information see: Markey Announcement, GAO Report

Report Calls for Urgent Cuts in CO2 to Save Dying Oceans

Climate change, pollution and overfishing are harming the oceans so rapidly that many marine species could be extinct within a generation, an international panel concluded. Marine scientists produced the report, which was released June 21 at a workshop at Oxford University that was organized by the International Programme on the State of the Ocean (IPSO). “As we considered the cumulative effect of what humankind does to the ocean the implications became far worse than we had individually realized,” said Alex Rogers, scientific director of IPSO. “This is a very serious situation demanding unequivocal action at every level.” The report calls for cuts in carbon dioxide emissions, which contribute to the warming of ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. It also calls on governments to reduce pollution and enact sustainable fisheries policies. The cumulative effect of the multiple threats must be addressed urgently because the rate of degeneration in the oceans is greater than predicted, the report warns.
For additional information see: The New York Times, Science Daily, Report

Study Finds Link Between Temperature, Increasing Rate of Sea Level Rise

The Atlantic is rising at a greater rate today along the coast of the United States than at any time during the last 2,100 years, a new study found. The study in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences also discussed the link between changes in temperature and rates of sea level rise. “Sea-level rise is a potentially disastrous outcome of climate change as rising temperatures melt land-based ice and warm ocean waters," said Benjamin Horton, a researcher at the University of Pennsylvania. The current average sea level rise is 2.1 millimeters per year. The study verifies that today’s rate of sea level rise is unprecedented in the recent geologic past, scientists said.
For additional information see: Associated Press, Science Daily, Study

Scientific American Series Links Stronger Storms to Climate Change

Scientific American last week published a three-part series exploring the connection between climate change and extreme weather. The first story stated that the extreme weather predicted by climate models is now being observed across the globe. The second explained how rising global temperatures fuel stronger storms. And the third discussed how the world can manage the risks and adapt to a changing climate. The series was funded by the Pew Center on Global Climate Change. Scientific American had complete editorial control.
For additional information see: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3

Insurers Study Climate Change to Decide Rate Hikes in Alabama

Insurance companies are considering rate hikes for homeowners after devastating tornadoes caused $2.5 to 3.5 billion in losses on April 27 in Alabama. The amount of rate increases depends on whether or not the storms are considered a new normal pattern caused by climate change. At only halfway through the year, Alabama’s tornado total is already three times the average and there have been more F4 and F5 storms than any other year. According to Lee Bowron of the Birmingham actuarial consulting firm Kerper and Bowron, LLC, insurance rates are based on models that predict the frequency and intensity of disasters, and “re-insurers and insurers are now evaluating tornado risk in light of the recent outbreak.” Brian Thomas, a sustainability consultant who formerly worked in the reinsurance industry, says, "the global re-insurers are very concerned about climate change. As far as they are concerned, there is a pretty clear signal." However, a preliminary National Weather Service evaluation of climate variables known to cause tornadoes in the Southeast doesn't show a global warming-related trend that can be linked to the severe outbreak. While insurance companies may want to raise rates to compensate for the threat of climate change, they can only raise them so much before they begin to lose customers.
For additional information see: The Birmingham News

EPA Report Outlines Climate Adaptation Options for Coastline

A new federal report on climate adaptation suggests that development in some low lying coastal areas will have to give way to rising sea levels. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in June released “Rolling Easements,” a primer for communities to preserve development rights of shoreline property owners while acknowledging that some coastal properties will be economically or environmentally infeasible to defend from rising sea levels. “Defending coastal development from the rising sea would prevent wetlands from migrating inland, expose large numbers of people to the hazard of living below sea level, and often cost more than what the property being protected is worth,” the report stated. The report detailed land-use and legal tools that would allow coastal development, but prohibit seawalls and shoreline protections from being built in some areas. Proposals include issuing regulations or transferring the rights to build shoreline protections from owners who would do so to organizations that would not. This allows property to be put to its highest use, but it can be converted to wetland or beach once it is threatened by rising seas.
For additional information see: The Washington Post, Report

Rockies Losing Colorful Flowers as Temperatures Rise, Study Finds

The colorful flowers that brighten the meadows of the Rocky Mountains in the middle of the summer are fading because of factors that include climate change, a new study found. As temperatures have risen in the high altitude meadows and conditions turned drier, the flowers have become less abundant, particularly during the middle of the summer. Not only would the Rockies lose a splash of color as the world turns warmer, but other species, such as pollinators, would be affected. “The resulting longer periods of flowering abundance in the middle of the summer season could negatively affect pollinators that are active throughout the season, and shifts in flowering peaks within habitats might create mismatches between floral resources and demand by pollinators with limited foraging ranges,” the study stated. The study was funded by the National Science Foundation. It appears in the July edition of the Journal of Ecology.
For additional information see: Los Angeles Times, Study Abstract

Survey Shows Who Americans Trust About Climate Change

A new survey suggests the urgency of climate change can be communicated if the right people engage local constituencies and explain how human activities are impacting local communities. "You can't talk about preparing for climate change in Seattle the same way you would in Phoenix,” said Anthony Leiserowitz, director of the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication, which released the survey results on June 27. The survey suggests many people remain uninformed about climate change but there is an opportunity to close the information gap. The survey found 39 percent of people were alarmed or concerned by climate change. On the other hand, 10 percent were dismissive, and may be unreachable because they distrust any source of data. A large sector of the public is in the middle, looking for information from trusted people who can explain why they are certain that humans are responsible for climate change. If more doctors, military officers, businesspeople or labor leaders speak out, the information gap may close. “We take our cues from key trusted individuals and organizations,” said Leiserowitz. “And different groups tend to trust different messengers.”
For additional information see: Reuters, Study

N.H. Governor Vetoes Plan to Leave Carbon Market

New Hampshire will stay in a regional carbon market after its governor vetoed a bill that would have led to its withdrawal. Gov. John Lynch said leaving the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) would cost the state $16 million that the program raises through its carbon auctions. "I am vetoing this legislation because it will cost our citizens jobs, both now and into the future, hinder our economic recovery, and damage our state's long-term economic competitiveness," said Lynch. The 10-state program requires reductions of carbon dioxide emissions from power plants and established the trading market. Power plants can buy allowances to cover their emissions and sell unneeded allowances on the market if they further reduce their emissions. Republican legislators in New Hampshire said leaving the program would lower costs for utilities and reduce electricity rates. RGGI has faced challenges in several states. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie announced in May that his state will leave the program later this year.
For additional information see: Reuters

British Columbia Carbon Tax Seen as Good for Environment

Nearly three-quarters of the residents of British Columbia believe their province’s carbon tax has been good for the environment, or feel neutral about it, according to survey results released June 30. Strategic Communications, Inc. conducted the poll of 830 people. It found 69 percent of residents are worried about climate change. This year, the carbon tax, introduced in 2008, costs $25 per ton for carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of oil, natural gas and coal. Next year, it rises to $30 per ton. Future rate hikes have not been determined; 51 percent of those polled do not support an increase in the carbon tax. Similar taxes apply to jet fuel, diesel, propane and other fuels. Both businesses and consumers pay the tax. The tax adds about $142 a year to the home heating bills of the average homeowner. The province claims the tax is revenue neutral because personal, corporate and small business income taxes were lowered.
For additional information see: Vancouver Sun, British Columbia Carbon Tax Website

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Chad A. Tolman
chadtolman@verizon.net
Coalition for Climate Change Study and Action

CLIMATE CHANGE NEWS FOR JUNE 2011

2011-06-21T07:37:00.000-07:00

CC NEWS FOR JUNE 2011

In January, the Energy and Environmental Study Institute (EESI) released a Fact Sheet called, A Snapshot of Renewable Energy Development. It focused on the current status of renewable energy for electricity generation, which has been growing rapidly and now produces 10.6% of U.S. electricity. The 12-page report describes capacity, project size, cost trends and construction timelines, and the impacts of renewable electricity technologies on carbon emissions. At: http://files.eesi.org/re_deployment_011211.pdf

In the last (May) issue of Climate Change News I mentioned a report from the National Academy of Sciences titled, Warming World: Impacts per Degree. The Energy and Environmental Study Institute (EESI) held a briefing on the report on April 25, and the presentations of the three speakers and their slides can be found online at: http://www.eesi.org/warming-world-impacts-degree-25-apr-2011

Looking at the impacts by degree C temperature increase gives policy makers a new way to look at climate change and to make informed decisions about what kinds of impacts are acceptable. The full National Academy of Sciences 298-page report, titled, Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia can be ordered or viewed online. At: http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12877

I highly recommend World on the Edge: How to Prevent Environmental and Economic Collapse by Lester Brown of the Earth Policy Institute. It's available free online at: http://www.earth-policy.org/images/uploads/book_files/wotebook.pdf

You can buy the book or join the Earth Policy Institute listserv at:

http://www.earth-policy.org/

I’m a great admirer of Dr. James Hansen at Columbia University. The NY Times interviewed him in 2008, and you can see it on YouTube at:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WVCMBozpoA0&feature=relmfu

On May 20, Need to Know on PBS did a piece by Laura LeBlanc titled, From allergies to deadly disease, feeling the effects of climate change. You can watch the 13.6-minute video at: http://www.pbs.org/wnet/need-to-know/environment/video-from-allergies-to-deadly-disease-feeling-the-effects-of-climate-change/9457/

Bill McKibben has a wonderful sardonic article in the Washington Post for May 23 titled, A link between climate change and Joplin tornadoes? Never! He reassures us with a quote from U.S. Chamber of Commerce, saying that there’s no need to worry because “populations can acclimatize to warmer climates via a range of behavioral, physiological, and technological adaptations.” At: http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-link-between-climate-change-and-joplin-tornadoes-never/2011/05/23/AFrVC49G_story.html

Desiree Parker has an article in the May 24 Williamsburg Yorktown Daily titled, Planned Coal Plant Could Cost $200 Million In Health Costs, Report Finds. The Old Dominion Electric Cooperative plans to build a new 1,500-megawatt power plant in the town of Dendron, VA. A report by the Chesapeake Bay Foundation says that the health care costs associated with running it could be over $200 million per year. According to the report, the annual health impacts of the plant would include: chronic bronchitis, asthma-related emergency room visits, premature deaths, heart attacks, asthma attacks, and lost work days. At: http://wydaily.com/local-news/6533-planned-coal-plant-could-cost-200-million-report-finds.html

Matthew Wald has an article in the May 24 NY Times titled, Risk From Spent Nuclear Reactor Fuel Is Greater in U.S. Than in Japan, Study Says. He writes, “The report, from the Institute for Policy Studies, recommends that the United States transfer most of the nation’s spent nuclear fuel from pools filled with cooling water to dry sealed steel casks to limit the risk of an accident resulting from an earthquake, terrorism or other event.” One U.S. nuclear plant, Vermont Yankee, on the border of Mass. and Vermont, has more nuclear waste stored in a pool than all four similar units at the Fukushima Daiichi plant in Japan. Moving all U.S. nuclear waste into dry storage might take 10 years and cost between $3.5 and $7 billion, but the costs could be much greater if we don’t take the precaution. One of the planes that hit the Twin Towers on 9/11 flew over the Indian Point nuclear complex on the Hudson on its way to NY City. At:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/25/business/energy-environment/25nuke.html

The Australian Climate Commission has issued a report titled, The Critical Decade: Key Messages. The Climate Spectator says, “Over many decades thousands of scientists have painted an unambiguous picture: the global climate is changing and humanity is almost surely the primary cause. The risks have never been clearer and the case for action has never been more urgent. Our Earth’s surface is warming rapidly and we can already see social, economic and environmental impacts in Australia. Failing to take sufficient action today entails potentially huge risks to our economy, society and way of life into the future. This is the critical decade for action.” At: http://www.climatespectator.com.au/commentary/climate-commission-critical-decade

Switchboard, the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) Staff Blog, posted an article on May 25 by Kaid Benfield. It describes A Citizen’s Guide to LEED for Neighborhood Development, developed by the NRDC for local environmental groups, smart growth organizations, and others interested in making communities better and greener. It is available for free and can be downloaded at: http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/kbenfield/knowing_when_its_green_a_citiz.html

The NRDC on May 26 issued a press release titled, New Poll Reveals New Jersey Residents Strongly Support Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative's Results. The poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling showed that 74% of NJ residents support clean energy development in the state over importing fossil fuels – in spite of a well-funded disinformation campaign by a group calling itself Americans for Prosperity. Similar groups – probably funded by the Koch Brothers and other fossil fuel interests – have been active in a number of Northeastern states opposing any efforts to reduce GHG emissions. At: http://www.nrdc.org/media/2011/110526.asp

Do you remember when more doctors smoked Camels than any other cigarette?

The Washington Post for May 27 carried an article by Chico Harlan titled, Japan takes a shine to renewable energy. It says that Japan, as a result of the disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, is changing national energy policy to scale back nuclear power and develop wind and solar power to replace it. In the meantime, while the new energy sources come online, Japan will reduce its energy consumption and import more oil and natural gas. At: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-takes-a-shine-to-renewable-energy/2011/05/26/AGm8wuCH_story.html

A NY Times article on May 29 by John Broder said that ex-President Bill Clinton and ex-NY Mayor Michael Bloomberg are working together to help cities reduce their GHG emissions and deal with climate change. Cities are home to more than half of Earth’s people and are responsible for 70% of its GHG emissions. At: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/29/science/earth/29enviro.html?pagewanted=all

There is now a group working on a National Fish, Wildlife and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy for the United States. A Steering Committee is supported by staff from the Fish and Wildlife Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ), the Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies, and Native American tribal partners. You can learn more at:

http://www.wildlifeadaptationstrategy.gov/management.php

Radio Netherlands Worldwide reported on May 30 that carbon dioxide emissions in 2010 were the highest in history – 30.6 Gt. The unwillingness of many countries to reduce their emissions makes it unlikely that global warming can be kept below 2º C (3.6º F). At: http://www.rnw.nl/english/bulletin/co2-emissions-highest-ever-2010-iea-0

The NY Times for June 4 has an article by Justin Gillis titled, TEMPERATURE RISING - A Warming Planet Struggles to Feed Itself. It mentions that climate change is challenging the ability of farmers to feed the growing population. It will be important to develop new varieties and new techniques better adapted to the new conditions. At: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/05/science/earth/05harvest.html?pagewanted=2&_r=2

OilChange International has a Dirty Money Campaign aimed at exposing the financial contributions that dirty energy companies make to members of Congress to protect the companies’ interests. You can follow the money by Zip code, politician, or company. At: http://www.dirtyenergymoney.com/#

The NY Times reported the development of a new generation of commercially available LED light bulbs at: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/05/magazine/bulb-in-bulb-out.html?scp=2&sq=Light%20Bulb&st=cse

On June 8 Heather Goldstone of WGBH (Boston) posted an article on her Climatide blog titled, The State of the Oceans 2011. In it she pointed out five threats to our oceans: 1) climate change, 2) acidification, 3) pollution, 4) over fishing and 5) ignorance. Heather is an oceanographer – well worth reading. At:

http://climatide.wgbh.org/tag/ocean-acidification/

On June 13 EnergyBiz ran an article by Ken Silverstein titled, Offshore Wind Hits Waves. It pointed out that offshore wind development in the U.S. is being slowed by a combination of regulatory hurdles and difficulty finding investors – in spite of the fact that offshore wind is growing very rapidly in many other parts of the world, including China. It appears that the first turbines in the water may be off the coast near Galveston Texas. Texas already leads the U.S. in onshore wind generation, with about 25% of the country’s total. At: http://www.energybiz.com/article/11/06/offshore-wind-hits-waves

Why is it so much easier for us to go to war than to develop a clean energy technology?

Robert Fri has a Voices piece on PBS Need To Know for June 14, titled, Action on climate change: Why now? He quotes a recent National Academy of Sciences report that says that though we don’t know exactly how or when the effects of climate change on humans and the environment will play out, “the environmental, economic, and humanitarian risks of climate change indicate a pressing need for substantial action to limit the magnitude of climate change and to prepare to adapt to its impacts.” At: http://www.pbs.org/wnet/need-to-know/voices/action-on-climate-change-why-now/9790/

The report was called America’s Climate Choices and was issued in May. A press release and a link to the full report can be found at:

http://www8.nationalacademies.org/onpinews/newsitem.aspx?RecordID=12781

The following items are from the Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI), Carol Werner, Executive Director. Past issues of its newsletter are posted on its website under "publications"  at http://www.eesi.org/publications/Newsletters/CCNews/ccnews.htm

EESI’s newsletter is intended for all interested parties, particularly the policymaker community.

UK Agrees to Two Decades of Drastic Emission Cuts

Cabinet ministers have agreed to a deal that will commit the United Kingdom to two decades of drastic greenhouse gas emissions cuts. Energy Secretary Chris Huhne announced last week that the government will fully accept the recommendations of an independent Committee on Climate Change that extended commitments to 2027, making the UK the only nation with legally binding commitments past 2020. The committee has recommended carbon emissions should be cut to 60 percent from 1990 levels by 2030, and eventually 80 percent by 2050. Ministers believe major companies involved in developing offshore wind technology, such as Siemens, Vestas, and General Electric, would be more willing to invest in Britain now that it is committed to expanding its renewable energy production. According to the committee, 16 billion pounds would need to be invested annually throughout the 2020’s and new policies would need to be implemented in order to meet the targets. In order to meet its goal, the country plans to replace a generation of aging nuclear power plants with new reactors, expand renewable energy, such as offshore wind power, geothermal energy, and use carbon sequestration.

For additional information see: The Guardian, Reuters

Climate Change a Contributing Factor to More Frequent Mississippi Floods

According to scientists, the increasing frequency and severity of Mississippi River floods are being caused by a combination of climate change and federal water projects over the past 100 years that have transformed the river into a waterway for shipping. The flooding of the Mississippi, as seen in recent weeks, was expected to occur once every 10 or 25 years, according to the Army Corps of Engineers. However, similar floods have occurred in 1995, 1996, 1998, and 2001. In 2008, the river experienced a flood that was expected once every 200 years, and in 1993 flood waters were at levels expected once every 500 years. The construction of locks, levees and weirs, they say, has caused the river to be unnaturally constrained, leading to higher flood water levels during heavy rains. Climate change, in addition, is leading to increased evaporation and, in turn, heavier rainfall.

For additional information see: NY Times, Scientific American

Study: Seaports Must Improve Infrastructure to Cope with Climate Change

A study published in the journal Climatic Change found that the majority of seaports around the globe are unprepared for the potentially damaging effects of climate change in the coming century. In a survey conducted on port authorities around the world, researchers found most of them do not know how to protect their facilities against rising sea levels and intense storms, which according to scientists are potential effects of climate change. Out of the 93 agencies representing major seaports around the globe who responded to the survey, fewer than six percent said that they plan to construct hurricane barriers within the next 10 years, and fewer than 18 percent had plans to build dikes or other storm protection structures.

For additional information see: Science Daily, UPI, Study

Scientists and Planners Agree Extreme Weather is the “New Normal”

On May 18, climate scientists and government planners stated that extreme weather patterns, such as increased rain, snow, floods, and droughts, are indicators of a new normal climate caused by climate change. "We are used to certain conditions and there's a lot going on these days that is not what we're used to, that is outside our current frame of reference," said climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe on a conference call with other scientists, civic planners and the giant Swiss Re reinsurance firm, organized by the Union of Concerned Scientists. Although they did not blame climate change for any specific event, all the participants cited human-caused climate change as one of the factors contributing to the more extreme weather.

For additional information see: Reuters

Texas Seeks to Overturn EPA’s Endangerment Finding

On May 23, the state of Texas, on behalf of 14 other states, filed an opening brief in a case seeking to overturn the “endangerment finding” announced by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 2009. The finding stated that greenhouse gases pose a danger to public health and welfare, which gave the EPA the authority to regulate greenhouse gases under the 2007 U.S. Supreme Court ruling EPA v. Massachusetts. Texas is challenging the finding on the grounds that it is "arbitrary and capricious,” words in the U.S. Code that are grounds for a reversal of the decision. The brief stated that the EPA "never provides criteria for determining when [greenhouse gas] emissions or climate change endanger public health or welfare,” as well as the possibility that people might adapt to or even combat the effects of climate change over the extended time period in which it occurs, reducing its effects on health and welfare. The brief was filed with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit.

For additional information see: Texas Tribune, Brief

Report: California Needs to Take Aggressive Measures to Meet Emissions Goal

In a report titled "California's Energy Future¬¬: The View to 2050," scientists from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory concluded that California can meet its goal to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. The report stated that the first 60 percent of emissions reductions could be met by aggressively implementing current technologies, including wind, solar, biomass, geothermal, hydro and offshore marine energy. The remaining 20 percent would be attained through technological advancements in artificial photosynthesis, fusion energy, more efficient and sustainable biofuels, hydrogen fuel, more effective carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), and advanced batteries for both vehicles and grid storage. The report also called for improvements to the electrical grid, to allow it to integrate more intermittent renewable sources and store more energy. In addition to faster development of renewable energy sources, scientists also stated that significant efficiency measures must be taken, retrofitting 1.8 percent of all buildings annually.

For additional information see: Science Daily, Report

Micronesia Challenges Czech Coal Plant Over Sea-Level Rise

Micronesia has mounted an unprecedented legal challenge against the Czech Republic's plans to expand a coal-fired power station more than 7,000 miles away. They claim the increased greenhouse gas emissions from the plant will contribute to global warming, potentially threatening the country, with many parts that lie just over three feet above sea level. If expanded, the power plant will emit over 40 times as much carbon emissions annually as Micronesia as a whole. Micronesia, along with Greenpeace, want the Czech government to carry out a study, called a Trans-Boundary Environmental Impact Assessment, to assess how pollution from the coal plant will affect the Micronesian archipelago. This type of study usually occurs between countries that share a border, but has never been done between countries from different regions before. The Czech environment ministry is expected to come to a decision regarding Micronesia’s case within two weeks.

For additional information see: Telegraph

Australian Climate Commission Suggests Immediate Action, End Logging in Old Growth Forests

A report issued by Australia’s Climate Commission stated that the evidence for global warming is now ''exceptionally strong and beyond doubt,'' and actions this decade will determine the impact of climate change for the rest of the century. The report concluded that the impacts of climate change are already being seen, despite the earth warming less than one degree Celsius so far. The commission addressed the issues of sea level rise and risks to the Great Barrier Reef, and suggested that carbon emissions must peak within the next few years, and then rapidly decline. The report also concluded that the country must end logging in old-growth forests with high carbon storage capacities, stating that it is one of the best ways of making timely cuts to Australia's greenhouse gas emissions while the slower energy transforming and transport systems unfold. "We need to use whatever means we can to sequester carbon but also start reducing emissions from industry. We need some sort of price on carbon. A price is unavoidable,” said Climate Commission chief, Tim Flannery.

For additional information see: Sydney Morning Herald 1, Sydney Morning Herald 2, Business Green, Report

IEA: CO2 Emissions Reached All Time High in 2010

On May 30, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) reached their highest level ever in 2010, with the growth driven mainly by booming coal-reliant emerging economies. The agency also stated that 80 percent of the projected carbon emissions in 2020 will be “locked in” since they will be produced by power plants that are already running, or under construction. "This significant increase in CO2 emissions and the locking in of future emissions due to infrastructure investments represent a serious setback to our hopes of limiting the global rise in temperature to no more than 2.0 [degrees Celsius] (3.6 [degrees Fahrenheit])," said IEA chief economist Fatih Birol. According to scientists, if global temperatures rise over two degrees Celsius, the risk of severe climate change impacts, including flooding, storms, rising sea levels and species extinction, greatly increase. The UN climate talks, which will resume in Bonn on June 6, will focus on how to achieve the two degree Celsius target. In related news, Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, stated that, "Two degrees is not enough- we should be thinking of 1.5 [degrees Celsius]. If we are not headed to 1.5 we are in big, big trouble." She said that the record emissions reported by IEA strengthens the need for urgent action on greenhouse gases.

For additional information see: AFP, Reuters, Guardian

Experts Discuss Ways to Help Threatened Island Nations Keep Sovereignty

Rising sea levels have put a number of small-island nations in the Indian and Pacific oceans at risk. At a three-day discussion at Columbia University last week, a collection of international lawyers and politicians began to find ways to use existing rules to allow many of these nations to continue as legal entities entitled to ocean fishing and mineral exploration rights, even if their entire populations were forced to relocate elsewhere. "It's important to maintain a government that can defend its interests in the international arena," said international law expert Jenny Grote Stoutenburg. Experts discussed the creation of new laws to address the fate of these island-nations, ways to clearly define their coastline as it currently exists, and how to deal with the relocation of the nations’ population if they are forced to relocate.

For additional information see: NY Times

Report Warns Food Prices Will Double without Global Action

A report published by Oxfam concluded that if global action is not taken to address issues such as climate change, failing biofuel policies, and stalling growth in agricultural yields, food prices will more than double over the next 20 years. The report suggested the price of key crops, like corn, would rise from 120 to 180 percent, with almost half the price increase attributed to climate change. Oxfam called for British Prime Minister David Cameron, among other G20 leaders, to implement measures that will stabilize food prices. These measures include increasing food reserves, removing agricultural subsidies, and decreasing support for biofuels that displace agricultural land that could be used for food production. The report also called on international governments to ensure that the Green Climate Fund, designed to help developing countries adapt to climate change, is put in place by this year’s climate summit in Durban, South Africa.

For additional information see: Business Green, BBC, Report

Climate Change To Increase Ozone-Related Illnesses

On June 2, the Union of Concerned Scientists released a report, “Climate Change and Your Health: Rising Temperatures, Worsening Ozone Pollution”, stating that climate change could increase illnesses and affect health costs because of the increase of ground-level ozone. "Even a small increase in ozone due to a warmer climate would have a significant impact on public health," said report co-author Liz Perera. "It would mean more asthma attacks, respiratory illnesses, emergency room trips and premature deaths." The report found that 10 states with the largest numbers of urban residents, children, and senior citizens along with high levels of nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compound emissions would be severely affected by ground-level ozone. These states include California, Texas, New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, New Jersey and Virginia. If fossil fuel emissions continue to increase at today’s current rate, by 2020 the higher ozone levels could create 2.8 million additional serious respiratory illnesses.

For additional information see: USA Today, Union of Concerned Scientists Report

Rising Sea Levels Will Affect More Than Just Coastal Populations

In a report to be published in the upcoming issue of Population and Environment, researchers examine the impacts of rising oceans as one element of how a changing climate will affect humans. Researchers used existing climate projections and maps to predict which areas will be at risk from rising seal levels and storm surges, and then applied these predictions to projections of future populations. The study focused on four main areas, including the tip of the Florida peninsula, coastal South Carolina, the northern New Jersey coastline, and the greater Sacramento region of northern California. According to researchers, more than 19 million people will be affected by rising sea levels in the four study areas by 2030. The study was designed towards helping local authorities identify how to best deal with environmental impacts. "As we anticipate future events, future natural disasters, we've learned how dramatic it can be -- and there are things that can be done in advance to mitigate the extent of damage in a location," said Katherine Curtis, lead author of the study.

For additional information see: Science Daily, Study

California Planning for Rising Sea Levels

California would require certain public entities to draw up action plans to prevent or mitigate damage from rising sea levels under a bill approved by the state assembly on June 1. The legislation applies to about 75 coastal cities, counties, and harbor and sanitary districts that manage state-granted public lands that generate more than $250,000 in annual revenues, a category that includes facilities such as large public airports and ports. The bill states that rising sea levels from climate change will significantly affect the state’s economic and social future. Coastal activities contribute more than $50 billion to the state’s economy. The bill does not include any provisions requiring public entities to implement their action plans.

For additional information see: San Jose Mercury News, Text of Bill AB 752

Natural Gas Is Not the Solution to Climate and Energy Problems, IEA Warns

At a June 6 press conference, the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that natural gas is not an energy panacea. “While natural gas is the cleanest fossil fuel, it is still a fossil fuel,” said Nobuo Tanaka, IEA’s executive director in discussing new research by the agency. “Its increased use could muscle out low-carbon fuels such as renewables and nuclear, particularly in the wake of Fukushima. An expansion of gas use alone is no panacea for climate change." Gas companies are urging governments to support an expansion of natural gas, including the tapping of previously inaccessible shale gas through “fracking,” a process which is blamed for the contamination of water supplies. The IEA worries that low-cost natural gas would incentivize the building of gas-fired power plants while shelving plans for renewable projects.

For additional information see: The Guardian, IEA, World Energy Outlook

Climate Change Will Reduce Water for Farming, UN Agency Says

Climate change will siphon away the amount of water available to the world’s farmers, the United Nation’s food agency warned in a new report that calls for action to lessen the danger to both rural and heavily populated areas. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) issued its “Climate Change, Water and Food Security Report” on June 9. The report calls on countries to improve their management of water resources and urge farmers to adopt new crops and practices before more serious effects of climate change are felt. Regions already prone to water scarcity are at the greatest risk, but the FAO said the loss of glaciers from climate change “will eventually impact the amount of surface water available.”

For additional information see: Reuters, AFP, FAO Report

Today’s Heat Waves to Become Commonplace in 20 to 60 Years, Study Finds

Unprecedented summer heat will be here to stay within the next 20 to 60 years if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, a new study found. Stanford University researchers concluded that tropical regions of Africa, Asia and South America could see the “permanent emergence of unprecedented summer” heat in the next two decades. In the middle latitudes of Europe, China and North America, today’s heat waves will become the new normal within 60 years. “According to our projections, large areas of the globe are likely to warm up so quickly that, by the middle of this century, even the coolest summers will be hotter than the hottest summers of the past 50 years,” said lead author Noah Diffenbaugh, an assistant professor of environmental Earth system science. The study will appear later this month in Climate Change Letters.

For additional information see: MSNBC, Stanford University

If you would like to receive my Climate Change News automatically by email and don’t already, just send an email message to:

climate_change_news-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

If you want to stop receiving it, just send a message to climate_change_news-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com. If you come across some really interesting information, please send it along and I may include it in the next issue. Recent issues are available at: http://tolmanccnews.blogspot.com

Thanks,
Chad A. Tolman

chadtolman@verizon.net
Coalition for Climate Change Study and Action

CLIMATE CHANGE NEWS FOR MAY 2011

2011-05-19T16:27:00.000-07:00

CC NEWS FOR MAY 2011

While most of the articles in this blog are taken from the recent past, I sometimes report on important older work, especially if it is very well written. An example is the 34-page 2009 report of the World Health Organization (WHO), titled Protecting Health from Climate Change – Connecting Science, Policy and People. Here is a small part of the Summary:

“All populations will be affected by a changing climate, but the initial health risks vary greatly, depending on where and how people live. …

Health effects are expected to be more severe for elderly people and people with infirmities or pre-existing medical conditions. The groups who are likely to bear most of the resulting disease burden are children and the poor, especially women. The major diseases that are most sensitive to climate change – diarrhoea, vector-borne diseases like malaria, and infections associated with undernutrition – are most serious in children living in poverty.”

At: http://whqlibdoc.who.int/publications/2009/9789241598880_eng.pdf

There is a wonderful ca. 50 minute PBSvideo called Crash: A Tale of Two Species. It’s about the Horseshoe Crab and a little bird called the Red Knot, that couldn’t survive without the crab’s eggs. Sea level rise endangers both. At: http://video.pbs.org/video/1200406235/

Another older (2010) but very well done 19-page report is one by Responsive Management on public opinion titled, DELAWARE RESIDENTS’ OPINIONS ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND SEA LEVEL RISE - Discussion of Survey Results and Messaging Implications. Sea level rise (SLR) is likely to be one of the most important effects of climate change and is particularly import for Delaware, which has the lowest average elevation (60 feet) of any state in the country. The survey reports a number of interesting results, including: 1) climate change and SLR tend to rank low among issues of greatest concern; 2) concern about climate change and SLR tends to increase with the education level of respondents and to be higher for women than for men; 3) people who live close to the coast are more likely to be concerned and to have seen evidence of SLR with their own eyes; and 4) there is still a significant percentage of people who think that there is a lot of uncertainty in the science. At: http://www.responsivemanagement.com/download/reports/DE_SLR_WhitePaper.pdf

The National Academy of sciences has issued a 298-page report, which can be ordered or viewed online, titled, Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia. At: http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12877

A 34-page booklet with the highlights of the report can be downloaded by clicking on: Warming World: Impacts by Degree at the website above.

The booklet Summary says, “The impacts of human activities—particularly emissions of carbon dioxide, but also including other greenhouse gas emissions, land use, and population growth—are so vast that they will largely control the future of the Earth’s climate system. This future could bring a relatively mild change in climate, or it could deliver an extreme change from today’s climate to entirely different climate conditions that will last many thousands of years. The eventual course of the climate system over millennia will be determined largely by the actions taken his century by governments, businesses, and individuals around the world.”

The booklet also says that each 1ºC (1.8ºF) increase in temperature is likely to result in 5-15% reductions in the yields of crops as currently grown. This will make it very difficult to feed an expanding population.

On April 12 the Economic Policy Institute issued a 27-page EPI Briefing Paper by Isaac Shapiro and John Irons titled, Regulation, Employment and the Economy – Fears of Job Losses are Overblown. In it they countered arguments being made by some in Congress that regulations harm the economy and cost jobs. The report found, for example, that Clean Air Act regulations had cost $53 billion to implement, but had saved an estimated $1.3 trillion – 25 times as much as they cost. The fruits of the failure to regulate adequately are the financial meltdown precipitated by sub-prime mortgages and the massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. At: http://www.epi.org/publications/entry/regulation_employment_and_the_economy_fears_of_job_loss_are_overblown

Maria Galucci of Reuters posted an article on April 21 titled, In U.S. Race to Reap Offshore Wind, Ambitions for Maryland Remain High. Although MD Governor O’Malley’s bill was tabled by the state legislature this year, he is confident that it will pass next year. It would involve a $1.5 B 500 MW wind farm with 25-year power purchase agreements with Maryland’s four investor-owned utilities. He is hopeful that his state will be the first to have offshore wind turbines, but several other states are vying for that position. At: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/21/idUS10289529820110421

On April 23 Rick Daysog posted an article titled, Easier to track renewable energy sources at new Cal ISO HQ. In it he reported that California is now generating 9% of the state’s electrical demand from wind and solar power, and large additional sources will soon be coming online. It can be a challenge for the California Independent System Operator (ISO) because of the intermittent nature of the sources, but the Cal ISO is up to the task. At:http://www.sacbee.com/2011/04/23/v-print/3573198/easier-to-track-renewable-enery.html

On April 28 the Sierra Club announced a new interactive map tool for tracking the locations and emissions of coal-fired power plants in the U.S., which are responsible for much of our emissions of carbon dioxide, mercury, and other harmful substances. You can search by state or enter your Zip code. At: http://www.sierraclub.org/coal/map/

Mother Jones has a May 2 article titled, The Electric Car Strikes Back? It’s an interview with Chris Paine, Director of the 2006 documentary, Who Killed the Electric Car, has now produced a new one, Revenge of the Electric Car. He points out that with gas over $4 a gallon and rising, car manufacturers are beginning to build electric cars again – even GM with its new Volt. When asked if China will beat the U.S. in developing the best electric car technology, Paine replied, “I think China is set up to surpass the US on the even more critical industry of green power. Thomas Friedman says it's not red China anymore, it's green China. And not because they care about the environment necessarily, but because they want to dominate this industry where they see everything going to once they hit peak oil. They hope we waste a lot of time arguing about whether global warming is man-made or not, because every day we waste time they get another day ahead with windmills and solar panels and electric cars and charging infrastructure. Our electric cars are still better. They're much better than China's BYD. I think the US has an arguable advantage right now in this area and I hope we can keep it.” At:

http://motherjones.com/environment/2011/04/who-killed-electric-car-chris-paine

ECN News for May 4 has an article titled, Report sees sharper sea rise from Arctic melt. It says that loss of ice from Greenland is accelerating - with the loss during the 2004-2009 period four times as great as during 1995-2000 – and could contribute 5 feet to global sea level rise by 2100. At: http://www.ecnmag.com/News/2011/05/Europe/Report-sees-sharper-sea-rise-from-Arctic-melt/

You can see some pretty impressive videos of Greenland ice melt by M. Tedesco of City University of New York at: http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-01-greenland-ice-sheet-video.html

A more detailed paper explaining why 2010 set records for ice melt, titled, The role of albedo and accumulation in the 2010 melting record in Greenland, is available on the web at: http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/6/1/014005/pdf/1748-9326_6_1_014005.pdf

The following items are from the Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI), Carol Werner, Executive Director. Past issues of its newsletter are posted on its website under "publications"  at: http://www.eesi.org/publications/Newsletters/CCNews/ccnews.htm

EESI’s newsletter is intended for all interested parties, particularly the policymaker community.

Melting Ice on Arctic Islands Contributes to Sea Level Rise More than Previously Thought

A new study published in Nature found that melting glaciers and ice caps on Canadian Arctic islands play a much greater role in sea level rise than scientists previously thought. The study found that from 2004-2006, the region lost an average of 7 cubic miles of water per year, which increased to 22 cubic miles per year from 2006-2009, adding about one millimeter to the height of the world’s oceans. "This is a big response to a small change in climate. If the warming continues and we start to see similar responses in other glaciated regions, I would say it's worrisome,” said Alex Gardner, lead author of the study. Scientists performed numerical simulations and then used two different satellite-based techniques to independently validate their model results. Experts project that sea levels will rise one meter by the end of the century, displacing tens of millions of people living in low lying areas, poisoning aquifers, and amplifying the impacts of storm surges and tsunamis.

For additional information see: AP, Science Daily

Soot May Be Responsible for Rapid Arctic Melt

An international team of scientists from the US, Norway, Russia, Germany, Italy and China, have begun a month-long research project to study the impact of black carbon soot particles in the Arctic, where surface temperatures have increased about twice as fast as the global average in the past 100 years. According to scientists, a thin, invisible layer of soot on the Arctic ice is causing it to absorb more heat, rather than reflect it back into space. The main sources of soot in the Arctic come from burning forests and fossil fuels in North America and Eurasia. The study, taking place in Svalbard, Norway, will track the movement of carbon soot through the atmosphere, its deposit on snow and ice surfaces, and its effect on warming in the Arctic. Two unmanned aircraft will collect aerosol soot in the air, and another craft will study the reflectivity of the surface. The Arctic Council, consisting of the eight countries bordering the Arctic, will use the study’s results to decide whether or not to seek reductions in soot from other nations. The study will conclude May 15.

For additional information see: AP, NOAA

U.S. Forests Sequester More Carbon Than Previously Thought

A study published in the journal Agricultural and Forest Meteorology found that forests and other terrestrial ecosystems in the lower 48 states can sequester up to 40 percent of the nation's fossil fuel carbon emissions, a much larger estimate than previously thought. The study was based on satellite measurements and dozens of environmental observation sites. However, researchers stated that major disturbances, such as droughts, wildfires and hurricanes, can all affect the amount of carbon sequestered. The 2002 and 2006 droughts, for example, cut carbon sequestration by about 20 percent compared to a normal year. “[W]e're now learning that this can have significant effects on the amount of carbon sequestered in a given year," said Beverly Law, co-author of the study. According to the study, growing evergreen and deciduous forests have the greatest potential for carbon sequestration.

For additional information see: Science Daily, Study

Increasing Ocean Temperatures Can Be Harmful to Some Fish Species

A study published in the journal Nature Climate Change found that the banded morwong, a long-lived fish species, is experiencing stunted growth due to a 2 degrees Celsius rise in the Tasman Sea over the past 60 years. "By examining growth across a range that species inhabit, we found evidence of both slowing growth and increased physiological stress as higher temperatures impose a higher metabolic cost on fish at the warm edge of the range," said Ron Thresher, marine ecologist and co-author of the study. He stated that sedentary fish, like the morwong, are most likely to be affected by the rising temperature, since they do not move further south into cooler waters. The study incorporated data on the morwong dating back to 1910 that focused on bony structures called otoliths, annual growth rings that are similar to the growth rings in trees, to assess the growth rates of the fish. The scientists concluded that the drop in growth could be related to higher stress levels from rising temperatures, increased oxygen consumption, and a decreased ability to swim for long periods.

For additional information see: Reuters, Study

Democrats and Republicans Increasingly Divided Over Global Warming

A study published in Sociological Quarterly found that the gap between Democrats and Republicans who believe global warming is happening increased 30 percent between 2001 and 2010, despite the growing scientific consensus that global warming is real. "Instead of a public debate about different policies to deal with global warming, a significant percentage of the American public is still debating the science. As a result, we're failing to significantly address one of the most serious problems of our time,” said Aaron McCright, primary investigator on the study. McCright and his colleague analyzed 10 years of data from Gallup’s environmental poll, an annual nationally representative telephone survey of at least 1,000 people. In 2001, about 49 percent of Republicans said they believed global warming has already begun, compared to 29 percent in 2010. The percentage of Democrats that believed global warming has already begun, however, rose from 60 percent in 2001 to 70 percent in 2010. According to McCright, the political polarization on climate change is not likely to go away anytime soon, hampering a “civil, science-based discussion on this very serious environmental problem.”

For additional information see: Science Daily, Report

Study Looks Beyond 2030 to Find China’s Carbon Emissions Will Level Out

A new report from the China Energy Group at the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab found that, contrary to popular suspicion, China’s carbon emissions will likely plateau after 2030. Researchers contended that the demand for energy intensive appliances like refrigerators and air conditioners will flatten as the market for them saturates while the products themselves become more energy efficient. In addition, roads and infrastructure build out will follow the same leveled path. Mark Levine, director of the China Energy Group, noted that China will begin to focus its energy development on nuclear and renewable energy, in addition to energy efficiency, as it implements the energy intensity and carbon reduction goals contained in its 12th Five Year Plan-adopted in March 2011.

For additional information see: Reuters, NY Times, Abstract, Report

Imported Goods Cancel Out Carbon Cuts in Developed Countries

A new study found that cuts in carbon emissions by developed countries since 1990 have been cancelled out many times over by increases in imported goods from developing countries. Under the Kyoto Protocol, emissions released during the production of goods are assigned to the country where production takes place, rather than where goods are consumed. Data suggest that developed countries can claim to have reduced their carbon emissions by two percent from 1990 to 2008, but once the carbon emissions from imported goods are taken into account, their actual emissions increased seven percent. China exports more carbon-intensive goods than it imports and is seen as the world’s largest carbon emitter, but its footprint drops by almost one-fifth when its imports and exports are taken into account, putting it behind the United States in carbon emissions. China accounts for 75 percent of the developed world's offshore emissions, according to the study.

For additional information see: Guardian, Science Daily, Study

First Carbon Capture and Sequestration Project Underway in Canada

On April 26, the Saskatchewan provincial government has approved a $1.2 billion clean-coal project at SaskPower's Boundary Dam generating station, which will be the first carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) project of its kind in the world. The project has used $180 million of the $240 million granted to it by the federal government several years ago, but the project has been up in the air due to the absence of federal regulations affecting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from coal-fired generating stations. The carbon-capture system is expected to reduce carbon emissions at Boundary Dam by one million tons per year, equivalent to the annual emissions of 200,000 vehicles or approximately one-quarter of the vehicles in the province.

For additional information see: Leader-Post, Business Green

Young Climate Activists Sue U.S. Government Over Atmospheric Pollution

On May 4, lawyers representing children and young adults filed a series of lawsuits against the U.S. government, claiming that its agencies have neglected their duty to protect the Earth's atmosphere for future generations. Lawsuits are to be filed in every state and Washington, D.C., according to the plaintiffs, a coalition called Our Children's Trust. The goal of the lawsuits is to protect the atmosphere by declaring it a public trust, a concept previously used to clean up polluted rivers and coastlines. Judges will need to decide whether or not the Environmental Protection Agency’s existing regulations on greenhouse gas emissions are stringent enough. Although the cases will likely take years to be resolved, if successful they could significantly impact carbon intensive businesses by effectively forcing the government to impose more stringent emissions regulations.

For additional information see: Business Green, AP

Vatican Science Panel Addresses Threat of Glacial Melt

On May 5, a report commissioned by the Vatican's Pontifical Academy of Sciences addressed the widespread loss of snow and ice in mountain glaciers due to climate change. The report listed numerous examples of glacial decline around the world and the evidence linking that decline to human-caused changes in climate and air pollution. According to researchers, the threat to populations dependent on glaciers and snow packs requires immediate attention to mitigate the current and future effects of climate change. The report recommended three measures, including the immediate reduction of worldwide carbon dioxide emissions, reduction of concentrations of warming air pollutants such as soot, ozone, methane and hydroflurocarbons by up to 50 percent, and preparation to adapt to climate changes that society will not be able to mitigate.

For additional information see: Scripps, Study

Climate Change Slowing Production of Food Crops

A study published in Science found that the world's rising temperature is slowing production of major food crops, and will eventually disrupt the economies of many countries and impair the health of their people. Farmers will need to change the types of crops they grow, and many crops, particularly corn and wheat, will need to be grown in new regions, according to researchers. To conduct the study, researchers used computer modeling from widely available crop and climate data to examine the past 30 years of production for corn, wheat, rice and soybeans, four of the world's major food crops. The results found rice and soybeans to be unaffected by climate change. Corn production was four percent lower than normal and wheat was 5.5 percent lower than normal, which possibly caused the six percent rise in global prices for those two crops during the past 30 years. The report stated that millions of people will be forced to consume less food as crop prices get higher, leading to more malnutrition and illness for those least able to pay for the food. However, crops in Mexico, the United States, and Canada remain unaffected, due in large part to the fact that overall temperatures in these areas have not risen significantly in the past 30 years.

For additional information see: Washington Post, SF Chronicle, Canadian Press, Abstract

New Report Emphasizes Need for Action Against Climate Change

On May 12, the National Research Council released a report warning Americans that not only is global warming real, but the effects are already becoming serious and the need for a strong national policy to limit emissions of heat-trapping gases has become urgent. The report America’s Climate Choices recommended the Federal government take immediate action to reduce carbon emissions and research new technologies to deal with the effects of climate change. The group of authors stated that it did not endorse any specific legislative approach, but that adding a price to carbon dioxide emissions would be essential to any plan. The report was requested by Congress in 2008, to provide information on how the nation should react to the potential consequences of global warming.

For additional information see: Bloomberg, NY Times, Report

IPCC Says Renewables Can Supply 80 Percent of World’s Energy by 2050

On May 9, a report issued by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, could supply up to 80 percent of the world's energy needs by 2050 and play a significant role in reducing climate change. To achieve this, governments must spend significantly more money and introduce policies that integrate renewable energy into existing power grids and promote their benefits in terms of reducing air pollution and improving public health, according to the IPCC. Authors of the report agreed that renewable sources are on the rise and their costs are decreasing, allowing them not to only combat climate change, but help poor nations develop their economies sustainably. The report reviewed bioenergy, solar energy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean energy and wind.  In related news, on May 10 the independent Committee on Climate Change (CCC) released a report arguing that the United Kingdom should be able to deliver at least 30 percent of its energy from renewable sources by 2030, in an effort to reduce carbon emissions. The report called for a significant increase in the implementation of UK renewable energy sources, including wind and marine energy, air and ground source heat pumps, and the use of bioenergy for heat generation, allowing the country to meet its target of generating 15 percent of energy from renewables by 2020 and 30 percent by 2030. The report also included a series of demand management and smart grid technologies that would allow the grid to support high levels of intermittent renewable power.

For additional information see: AP, AFP, Business Green

Increased Ocean Acidification Dissolves Shells

A study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found that coccoliths, very small shells of calcium carbonate that encapsulate a number of species of alga, dissolve when seawater acidifies. Algae plays an important role in our ecosystem by regulating the global carbon-oxygen cycle, which can be significantly disrupted if greenhouse gas emissions continue to raise the acidification of the oceans, according to scientists. The shells completely fell apart during experiments in water with pH levels that many scientists believe oceans will have by 2100. "These findings underscore that the acidification of the oceans is a serious problem. The acidification has enormous consequences not only for coccoliths, but also for many other marine organisms as well as the global carbon cycle," explains Katherine Richardson, professor of biological oceanography at the University of Copenhagen.

For additional information see: Science Daily, Study

Climate Disasters Affect Children in Poor Countries

Two studies study published by Unicef, Plan International, and Save the Children, found that there has been a steady increase in reported disasters linked to climate change over the past 10 to 20 years. The study warns that although frequent low-level climate disasters, such as floods and droughts, are not classified as humanitarian emergencies, they still have a significant impact on children. Researchers examined eight countries which experienced these events regularly, and found a correlation between an increase in disasters and diarrhea, disease, low birth weight and malnutrition in children. They also found that in the majority of the countries, the children’s education also suffered because disaster damage and illness kept them from attending school. The study called for investments to help children deal with disasters caused by climate change, such as building schools that are strong enough to withstand cyclones and floods so their education is not halted by extreme weather. "We must invest in preparing children for climate-related disasters so that more children do not die needlessly and are able to grow up, go to school and help to develop their countries,” said David Bull, executive director of Unicef UK.

For additional information see: The Independent, Study

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Thanks,
Chad A. Tolman

chadtolman@verizon.net
Coalition for Climate Change Study and Action

CLIMATE CHANGE NEWS FOR APRIL 2011

2011-04-20T17:22:00.000-07:00

CC NEWS FOR APRIL 2011

Lester Brown of the Earth Policy Institute posted a Plan B Update on March 23 titled, CAN THE UNITED STATES FEED CHINA? In it he pointed out some disturbing trends in China that will have a major impact on U.S. food prices. While China has worked hard to remain self sufficient in food production, it imports 80% of its soybeans. Over-pumping of ground water for irrigation and plowing dry soils in Northwestern China - coupled with climate change – is leading to expanding deserts and dust storms reminiscent of the American dust bowl described in John Steinbeck’s Grapes of Wrath. There is also a rising demand for grains as meat consumption increases, and a conversion of farmland into roads and parking lots as the number of cars sold rapidly expands. The only country with the capacity to supply the projected increasing grain shortage in China is the U.S. Esta una problema. At:

www.earth-policy.org/plan_b_updates/2011/update93

Paul Gipe on March 25 posted an article in RenewableEnergyWorld.com titled, New Record for German Renewable Energy in 2010. He reported that Germany set a new world record of installing 7,400 MW of solar PV in one year. In 2010 it produced 30% of its electricity from renewable energy sources. After the recent nuclear accident and radiation leaks in Japan, Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel closed two nuclear reactors permanently, and another five temporarily. She also called on her government to revisit its controversial decision to extend the life of its aging reactors. At: http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2011/03/new-record-for-german-renewable-energy-in-2010

The on-line peer reviewed journal, Sustainability, has a special issue on the subject of environmental laws and sustainability, at: http://www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability/special_issues/env-laws

Eric Niller wrote an article in the Washington Post for March 20 titled, King crabs invade Antarctica. It used to be too cold for king crabs in the shallow waters off the Antarctic Peninsula, but now they are arriving in large numbers. The impacts of these invasive crabs on the ecosystem are unknown, for the sea creatures there have not been exposed to crabs for millions of years. At: http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/king-crabs-invade-antarctica/2011/03/01/ABCyN52_story.html

The 90-minute film Plan B – Mobilizing to Save Civilization, with Lester Brown and Matt Damon is available online during April at: http://video.pbs.org/video/1864227276/

Earthjustice.org has a couple of great short videos about fracking (hydraulic fracturing for natural gas – now growing rapidly with little or no control). At: http://earthjustice.org/our_work/campaigns/fracking-gone-wrong-finding-a-better-way

The Center for American Progress released an excellent brief by Tom Kenworthy, Daniel J. Weiss, Lisbeth Kaufman, and Christina C. DiPasquale on March 21 titled, Drilling Down on Fracking Concerns - The Potential and Peril of Hydraulic Fracturing to Drill for Natural Gas. In it they reported that there are many questions about fracking for natural gas from shale that need to be addressed, including: What toxic materials are added to the fracking fluid to release the gas, and where to they go?; How much radioactivity is flushed out of the ground and is it dangerous?; and How much methane, CO2 and other gases are emitted to the atmosphere? A complete life-cycle analysis is clearly needed. At: http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/03/fracking_concerns.html

The American Solar Industries Association has released the Executive Summary of its report, U.S. Solar Market Insight – 2010 Year in Review. It covers Solar photovoltaics (PV), Concentrated Solar Power (CSP), and Solar Heating and Cooling (SHC). The total value of these technologies increased in 2010 from $3.6B to $6B – let by solar PV. It’s growth rate has averaged nearly 70% a year for the past decade – though it still represents only a small fraction of U.S. electricity consumption. At: http://www.seia.org/galleries/pdf/SMI-YIR-2010-ES.pdf

Eliot Caroom of the Star Ledger wrote an article March 27 titled, Google backs power cable for N.J. offshore wind. The power cable would be capable of carrying 6,600 GW of electrical power along the sea floor, about 10-12 miles off shore – initially from Egg Harbor Township in Atlantic County, NJ to Indian River, DE. Eventually it would cost about $5 billion and stretch for 350 miles, linking offshore wind farms along a heavily populated stretch of coast and capable of supplying power to 6 million homes. The laying of cable needs to proceed in tandem with building the wind farms along it so that the transmission line is available when they start up. At: http://www.nj.com/business/index.ssf/2011/03/google_backs_huge_power_cord_f.html

One advantage of an extended system like this is that connecting wind turbines over a large area reduces the problem of intermittency, since the wind is very likely to be blowing somewhere along the line. This reduces the need for backup power, e.g., from gas-fired generators.

Elizabeth Kolbert has an article in the April 2011 issue of National Geographic titled, The Acid Sea. In it she points out that, since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, humans have released more than 500 billion tons (Gt) of CO2 into Earth’s atmosphere – by burning fossil fuels and forests - increasing the acidity or concentration of hydrogen ions (H+) in the oceans by about 30% and decreasing pH (a logarithmic scale like the Richter scale for earth quakes) by about 0.1 unit. If present emissions trends continue, we could increase acidity by 150% above what it was decreasing pH by another 0.4 unit. All of the effects of this large increase are not known, but it could kill coral reefs, clams and oysters, destroy habitat for many fish species, and adversely affect phytoplankton (small floating plants with calcium carbonate skeletons) at the base of the oceanic food chain. Something like what humans are doing happened 55 million years ago at the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), when a large increase in CO2 concentration raised global average temperatures by several degrees and resulted in the extinction of many species of sea life.

Judi Greenwald of the Pew Center on Global Climate Change posted a blog on March 28 titled, All Energy Sources Entail Risk, Efficiency a No-Brainer. In it she gave a nice summary of the risks we assume in the production and use of our many sources of energy: nuclear, coal, oil, natural gas, and renewable energy sources. All have positive and negative features – some more than others. Reducing energy waste and using energy more efficiently is a no-brainer – something we can all do to save both money and the environment. At: http://www.pewclimate.org/blog/greenwaldj/all-energy-sources-entail-risk-efficiency-no-brainer

ABC World News for March 29 had an article by Jim Sciutto titled, Oklahoma Town Fears Cancer, Asthma May Be Linked to Dump Site. The town of Brokoshe, OK has a pile of fly ash from coal burning power plants six stories high that gets an additional 80 truckloads of fly ash each day. Of the 20 homes close to the dump, 14 have one or more people with cancer. It appears that toxic heavy metals are leached out of the pile by rainwater and blown into the air by wind. At:

http://abcnews.go.com/US/oklahoma-town-fears-cancer-asthma-linked-dump-site/story?id=13240312&page=1

Beth Buczynski reported on April 5 in Crisp Green that Vestas – anticipating large growth in the North Sea offshore wind turbine market - has announced the production of the V164-7.0 MW turbine, designed for harsh marine environments. With a blade length of 80 m (over 260 feet), the new turbine is the largest in the world. At:

http://crispgreen.com/2011/04/new-offshore-wind-turbine-can-withstand-rough-seas/

Matthew Wald wrote an article for the NY Times on April 11 titled, Physicist Reviews Nuclear Meltdowns. In it he reported that the three partial recent meltdowns bring the total worldwide to a dozen since 1957 – meaning that experience shows that these incidents have happened about 8X as frequently as the U.S. safety goal. Based on the global fleet of 439 reactors and past experience, we can expect serious damage to a reactor core somewhere every three years. At: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/12/science/12nuclear.html

It’s no wonder that private insurance companies won’t issue policies for nuclear power plants. See: http://www.portlandtribune.com/opinion/story.php?story_id=130092786058118600

Wendy Koch of USA Today wrote an article on April 12 titled, California sets highest green power goal. She reported that Governor Brown has now signed legislation, requiring utilities to get 33% of their energy from renewable energy sources by 2020 – the highest green power goal in the country. Colorado is second with 30% by 2020. At: http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/states/maps/renewable_portfolio_states.cfm

A good explanation of Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), with a listing by state, can be found at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_portfolio_standard#United_States

Things are changing so rapidly that it’s hard to keep such lists up to date. Delaware is listed as 20% by 2019, but a new law passed in 2010 makes it 25% by 2025, with 3.5% of that solar.

On April 14 the NY Times published an article by Anne Mulkern of Greenwire titled, EPA Supporters Work to Snag Women With Focus on Family Health. Since many in Congress seem to doubt climate science, those who oppose having the EPA stripped of its authority to control emissions dangerous to human health and welfare are turning the focus to health issues and women, who support EPA authority by large margins. At: http://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2011/04/14/14greenwire-epa-supporters-work-to-snag-women-with-focus-o-22088.html

Dr. Rajendra K. Pachauri, Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), spoke recently at the University of Delaware. An article about his talk appeared in the UDaily on April 15. His entire presentation can be viewed as a podcast. At: http://www.udel.edu/udaily/2011/apr/climate-pachauri-041511.html

GENewscenter.com issued a news release on April 19 titled, Google, Itochu And Sumitomo Join GE And Developer Caithness Energy As Owners Of World’s Largest Wind Farm, In Oregon. It announced a joint effort to build the 845 MW capacity Shepherds Flat wind farm near Arlington, Oregon. It will be the world’s largest. The $2 B project will supply enough power for more than 235,000 American homes. At: http://genewscenter.com/Press-Releases/Google-Itochu-And-Sumitomo-Join-GE-And-Developer-Caithness-Energy-As-Owners-Of-World-s-Largest-Wind-Farm-In-Oregon-3008.aspx

EESI’s newsletter is intended for all interested parties, particularly the policymaker community.

China to Revise Strategy for Meeting New Emissions Targets

On March 6, the chairman of China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), Zhang Ping, announced that China will not repeat the mistakes it made in 2010 as it strives to meet its strict new emissions and energy savings targets for 2011-2015. China’s industrial sector was deeply affected by last-minute efforts to meet the mandatory 2006-2010 target to improve energy efficiency by 20 percent. Some regions took measures as extreme as restricting power supplies to meet the targets, which Zhang noted was “not appropriate.” Zhang said China “basically” met the 2006-2010 target, with energy intensity, or the amount of energy required per unit of GDP growth, dropping by 19.1 percent. To meet its goal of reducing 2005 levels of carbon by 40-45 percent by 2020, China aims to reduce energy intensity by an additional 16 percent before the end of 2015, and carbon intensity by 17 percent, Premier Wen Jiabao said. Beijing is encouraging provinces to rely on market mechanisms, such as cap and trade systems rather than relying on direct administrative orders to meet the new targets.

For additional information see: Reuters

Climate Change Affecting Coffee Supply, Commodity Prices

On March 9, The Seattle Times and the New York Times reported on the vulnerability of coffee crops to climate change, and what implications the lower crop yield has for coffee drinkers and companies like Starbucks. Planters in Costa Rica now cultivate arabica coffee beans at nearly 7,000 feet, roughly 2,000 feet higher than usual, once they noticed that weather patterns were shifting. Average temperatures in Colombia’s coffee regions have risen nearly one degree, and in some mountain areas the increase has been double that. At higher temperatures, the plants’ buds do not ripen at the appropriate time; and devastating fungi that could not previously survive the cooler mountain weather can now wreak havoc on coffee crops. Yields have dropped significantly in the last decade, and almost all tropical species are more sensitive to climate change since they can only withstand a narrow band of temperatures. Farmers in Costa Rica and Colombia have coped with droughts, mudslides, erratic rains, and changes in temperature over the past few years. Researchers and experts are trying to help coffee farmers adapt to the climate changes by developing hardier varieties of coffee or recommending strategies to protect the environment and grow better coffee by planting shade trees and planting in curved terraced rows to prevent massive water runoff. Heavy rains last fall drove coffee prices to record levels, which were reflected in the increased price on some drinks at coffee retailers in the United States.

For additional information see: The Seattle Times, New York Times

Researchers Map Human Vulnerability to Climate Change

On March 7, a study published in the journal Global Ecology and Biogeography found that climate change will have the greatest impact on populations least responsible for causing it. Researchers at McGill University mapped human vulnerability to climate change by combining climate change data with censuses covering roughly 97 percent of the world’s population in order to project potential changes in local populations by 2050. The map showed that those likely to be most vulnerable to climate change inhabit low-latitude hot regions, such as central South America, the Arabian Peninsula, and much of Africa. The researchers explained that these populations already experience difficulty adapting to hot conditions, and an increase in temperature over the next few decades will make living increasingly difficult. Scientists predict that human populations living in high-latitude temperate zones will be less affected by warming temperatures. The study showed inequities in the causes and consequences of climate change, as countries that have contributed most to climate change based on their average per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are predicted to be the least vulnerable to its impacts.

For additional information see: The Times of India, USA Today, Map

Report Outlines New Challenges for U.S. Navy as Climate Change Progresses

On March 10, the National Research Council published a report that found the U.S. Navy should prepare now for the effects of climate change. Conducted at the request of the Navy, the report recommended the Navy strengthen its capabilities in the Arctic as new sea lanes begin to open up, creating a new geopolitical situation in which multiple countries vie for oil and gas previously covered by sea ice. In addition, the report recommended the Navy prepare for more humanitarian missions, which could represent the biggest change to naval operations, and analyze potential vulnerabilities of seaside bases and facilities. “Even the most moderate predicted trends in climate change will present new national security challenges for the U.S. Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard,” said Frank L. Bowman, co-chair of the committee that wrote the report and a retired U.S. navy admiral. “Naval forces need to monitor more closely and start preparing now for projected challenges climate change will present in the future.”

For additional information see: New York Times, Press Release, Report

New York, Others Prepare for Supreme Court to Hear GHG Public Nuisance Lawsuit

On March 14, New York State Attorney General Eric Schneiderman filed a brief with the U.S. Supreme Court on behalf of six states and New York City in a public nuisance lawsuit against five utilities over their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Filed in 2004, the lawsuit considers whether states and other entities have the right to sue major utilities because their power stations are causing a public nuisance with their GHG emissions. The states named in the lawsuit are New York, California, Connecticut, Iowa, Rhode Island, Vermont, plus New York City. The U.S. Second Circuit Court of Appeals upheld the states’ right to bring the suit, American Electric Power Co. Inc. v. Connecticut in 2009. However, the electric companies, American Electric Power, the Southern Company, Xcel Energy, the Cinergy Corporation and the Tennessee Valley Authority, appealed and the U.S. Supreme Court is scheduled to hear arguments next month and decide on the case in July.  In related news, on March 11, New Jersey Attorney General Paula Dow informed the U.S. Supreme Court that her state will withdraw from the public nuisance lawsuit. In a statement to the Associated Press, Dow’s spokesperson said, “Considering the Supreme Court's ruling and the Obama Administration's subsequent position that the EPA must determine an appropriate plan of action, it does not make sense to incur further taxpayer expense on an unnecessary lawsuit." Wisconsin withdrew from the lawsuit in February.

For additional information see: Business Green, Environmental Leader, NY Attorney General’s Brief, NJ.com

Vermont Governor Takes Stance Against Emissions

Vermont Governor Peter Shumlin announced last week that Vermont will join in filing motions in support of the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions. He also stated that Vermont had taken legal action to defend the state’s right to address the harm caused by climate change and air pollution from coal-fired power plants. Vermont, eight other states, and New York City filed two lawsuits in support of the federal government’s decision to approve mandatory greenhouse gas reporting requirements for emissions from petroleum and natural gas systems. “I am committed to aggressively fighting interstate air pollution and climate change. . . Climate impacts in Vermont include the loss of our hardwood trees, including sugar maples, the spread of insect pests impacting our forests, waters and public health and increased soil erosion,” said Shumlin.

For additional information see: Brattleboro Reformer

Climate Change Will Reduce Joshua Tree Habitat

A new study led by the U.S. Geological Survey has found that climate change in the Southwest will likely eliminate Joshua trees from 90 percent of their current habitat within 60 to 90 years. The study included models of future climate, an analysis of the climatic tolerances of the species in its current range, and the fossil record to project the future survival and distribution of Joshua trees. The research team was able to reconstruct how the Joshua tree responded to a similar climate warming 12,000 years ago, and concluded that the trees’ ability to spread into suitable habitats after the sudden climate change was limited by the extinction of large mammals that previously dispersed its seeds over long distances. Today, Joshua tree seeds are spread by small rodents such as squirrels and pack rats, which are not able to travel as far. This limited ability of rodents to disperse seeds, along with many other factors, will likely slow Joshua tree migration to about six feet per year, which is not enough to keep up with the rising temperatures according to researchers.

For additional information see: UPI, USGS

Ocean Currents Trap Much More Carbon Relative to Organisms

On March 21, research published in the Journal of Geophysical Research found that ocean currents sequestered much more carbon than biological mechanisms than previously thought. According to researchers, oceans absorb approximately 30 percent of the carbon dioxide emitted by humans into the atmosphere. The ocean traps, or sequesters, the carbon in two ways: one through a biological process whereby carbon is used for the photosynthesis of microscopic phytoplankton, and moves up the food chain, and the other through the physical movement of ocean currents whereby ocean circulation pulls down carbon-saturated surface water toward the bottom of the ocean. Researchers used data from a specific region in the North Atlantic to implement high resolution numerical simulations to quantify how much carbon each process sequesters. They found that currents made up the vast majority of carbon sequestration, compared to the biological process, by a factor of 100 to 1. Authors noted that there are still several areas in need of research on ocean sequestration of carbon, such as the length of time currents keep carbon deep underwater before it returns to the surface, whether the proportionality between the physical and biological processes are similar in other areas of the ocean, and how climate change will affect these mechanisms.

For additional information see: Science Daily, Study

China Announces New Goals to Lower Carbon Footprint

On March 28, China announced its new 2011 targets for energy and water efficiency and for carbon emission reductions. The goals include a reduction of carbon emissions by 4 percent below 2010 levels, and a reduction in water usage by 7 percent. These cuts are part of a wider plan to reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions 18 percent by 2015, as well as to achieve a 30 percent reduction in water consumption. By 2020, China hopes to reach a 40-45 percent reduction in energy consumption from 2005 levels. China will explore the use of “market mechanisms” to lower its emissions, with the majority of the burden being placed on large industrial enterprises.

For additional information see: Reuters, Xinhua

New Study Simulated Warmer Climate Effects on Wheat

In a recent study published in Global Change Biology, scientists used heaters to simulate a temperature rise of 2-6 degrees Fahrenheit to study the predicted climate change effects on wheat fields in Arizona and found that the heaters accelerated growth, increased soil temperatures, reduced soil moisture, induced mild water stress on the crops and had a nominal effect on photosynthesis. The heaters were used from December through early January, on wheat that was planted in September. Bruce Kimball, the study’s author, found that although rising temperatures could be beneficial to farmers in northern latitudes, the agricultural losses in tropical and southern countries are projected to far outweigh the benefits in the north. According to a 2010 study conducted by Christopher Muller of The World Bank, wheat-growing areas of northern India, Australia and the American Midwest are projected to see 20 to 50 percent drops in yields by 2050, and although areas in some northern regions may see increases up to 100 percent, they are much less expansive. Muller’s study concluded that better breeding and engineering technology would be needed to increase overall yields. (emphasis added)

For additional information see: NY Times, Kimball Study, Muller Study

Study Contends Rise in Wind Speeds Over Oceans

A study in the journal Science indicated that over the past 25 years, average wind speeds over the oceans have risen significantly, as have wave heights. Researchers stated that these changes are not necessarily a result of climate change. However, the higher wind speeds could lead to greater evaporation, adding to the increase from global warming, which in turn could increase precipitation worldwide. The average wind speed has increased about 0.25 percent every year for the past two decades, whereas the increase in wave heights was not as significant.

For additional information see: ABC News, SMH, Study

Study Contends Over One Billion People Will Face Water Shortages by 2050

A new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences estimated that over one billion people will face water shortages by 2050 as climate change worsens the negative effects of urbanization. The study assumed the minimum amount of water needed per person per day for cooking, cleaning, drinking, bathing, and toilet use, was 100 liters (on average, Americans use 376 liters per day). The biggest shortages will be seen in developing countries like India and China, which are undergoing an unprecedented urban shift as people flock to cities from rural areas. Along with creating sanitation problems in the affected cities, the shortage could also harm wildlife if the cities are forced to pump in water from outside sources. India’s Western Ghats region, a potential source of outside water, is home to over 300 species of fish, 29 percent of which are unique to that area. Lead author of the study Rob McDonald stated, “If cities are essentially drinking rivers dry, that has really bad effects on the fish and the reptiles and everything else in the river.” The study suggested that increased water-use efficiency in the agricultural and residential sectors could potentially solve this problem.

For additional information see: AFP, Study

Scientists Calculate Melt Rate of Patagonian Glaciers

In a study published in Nature, scientists found that the recent melt rate of glaciers in Patagonia has increased by a factor of ten compared to the melt rate since the 19th century. By observing distinct landscape markings, scientists were able to determine the maximum advance of the Patagonian glaciers during what is known as the “Little Ice Age” which ran from the 16th to 19th centuries. They compared ice lost since the Little Ice Age to the amount lost in recent decades to determine the increased melt rate. This increase, authors noted, is contributing to rising sea levels at an alarming rate. Neil F. Glasser, lead scientist of the study, stated that the trends in glacial melting, “mirrors the significant rise in global temperatures detected over the past 30 years. . . providing support for the assertion that glacier recession can be attributed to recent warming.” (emphasis added)

For additional information see: NY Times, BBC, Study

Climate Change Leads to Spread of Malaria in Africa

As the climate warms in East Africa, infected mosquitoes are expanding their range and spreading malaria, according to new research by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society. Temperatures have increased significantly since the 1980s in the Kenyan Highlands, and residents of the Highlands, who normally do not get malaria, are especially susceptible to the disease since they have no built up immunity for it, according to Dr. Maria Neira, director of public health and environment for the World Health Organization. “As temperatures have been increasing, the mosquitoes that are transmitting the disease have better conditions to breed, reproduce, and transmit the disease. Vector-borne diseases are expanding their reach and death tolls," she stated.

For additional information see: ABC News, Scientific American, Book

Antarctic Penguins Suffering from Effects of Climate Change

A study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science found that climate change is affecting both chinstrap penguin and Adelie penguin populations through reductions in their food supply. Krill, the penguins’ main food source, requires sea ice to reproduce. The reduction in sea ice from climate change has led to an 80 percent decrease in krill populations since 1970. Over the past decade, chinstrap penguin populations have fallen by 4.3 percent a year, and Adelie penguin populations have fallen 2.9 percent a year. According to the study, fewer fledgling penguins are surviving to adulthood, causing some penguin colonies to fall by half. The penguins face more danger as krill fisheries in the Southern Ocean expand.

For additional information see: Mongabay, Reuters, NY Times, Study

Ancient Fossil Record Informs Future Climate Patterns

In a study published in Earth and Planetary Science Letters, UCLA geoscientists constructed an ancient climate record by analyzing fossilized mollusk shells . The study used two geochemical techniques to determine the summertime Arctic temperatures during the early Pliocene epoch (3.5 million to 4 million years ago), in which the shells were formed, and found that temperatures may have been 18 to 28 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than today. Carbon dioxide (CO2) levels from the Pliocene epoch remained near the current value of 400 parts per million (ppm) for thousands of years, possibly indicating how warm the planet may get if CO2 levels are stabilized at modern levels. The results of the study supported previous climate models which predicted summertime sea ice will be eliminated in the next 50 to 100 years. By evaluating the isotopic content of oxygen from both fossilized mollusk and plant samples, scientists were able to determine the temperature at which the specimens originally formed, eliminating the need for ice cores which only provided climate information up to 800,000 years ago, during which CO2 levels were never above 280 to 300 ppm. Scientists created an additional method that determined how much of the rarest isotopes of carbon and oxygen are present in just the mollusk sample, which yielded results consistent with the original method. Data from these methods were in sync with three entirely different approaches, proving them to be reliable.

For additional information see: Science Daily, Study

Cornell Study on GHG Impact of Fracking Released

A Cornell University study published in Climate Change Letters concluded natural gas produced by a drilling method called “hydraulic fracturing,” or “fracking,” could contribute more to global warming than previously thought. The findings are controversial due to previous estimations that natural gas had a fraction of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of coal, and “shale gas” has been widely credited in many circles for keeping energy prices low during the recession. According to the study, however, the production of gas from shale produces much higher methane emissions, a GHG many times more potent than carbon dioxide, which is enough to negate the carbon advantage that it has over coal and oil when they’re burned for energy. “The [greenhouse gas] footprint for shale gas is greater than that for conventional gas or oil when viewed on any time horizon, but particularly so over 20 years. Compared to coal, the footprint of shale gas is at least 20 percent greater and perhaps more than twice as great on the 20-year horizon and is comparable when compared over 100 years,” stated Robert Howarth, one of the authors of the study.

For additional information see: Time, NY Times, Study

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Thanks,
Chad A. Tolman

chadtolman@verizon.net
Coalition for Climate Change Study and Action

CLIMATE CHANGE NEWS FOR MARCH 2011

2011-03-24T14:29:00.000-07:00

CC NEWS FOR MARCH 2011

On Feb. 17 Paul Epstein and 10 co-authors published an important paper in the Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences titled, Full cost accounting for the life cycle of coal. The abstract says, “Each stage in the life cycle of coal—extraction, transport, processing, and combustion—generates a waste stream and carries multiple hazards for health and the environment. These costs are external to the coal industry and are thus often considered “externalities.” We estimate that the life cycle effects of coal and the waste stream generated are costing the U.S. public a third to over one-half of a trillion dollars annually. (emphasis added) Many of these so-called externalities are, moreover, cumulative. Accounting for the damages conservatively doubles to triples the price of electricity from coal per kWh generated, making wind, solar, and other forms of nonfossil fuel power generation, along with investments in efficiency and electricity conservation methods, economically competitive.” The authors estimate that these “external” costs, which are borne by the public but don’t show up in your electric bill, may be 18¢/kWh or more. At:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1749-6632.2010.05890.x/abstract

Todd Woddy has an article in the Feb. 23 NY Times titled, Solar Energy Faces Tests On Greenness. He writes, “Just weeks after regulators approved the last of nine multibillion-dollar solar thermal power plants to be built in the Southern California desert, a storm of lawsuits and the resurgence of an older solar technology are clouding the future of the nascent industry.” The problem is that these large renewable energy plants are to be built on environmentally sensitive lands, and are being legally challenged by conservation, labor and American Indian groups – making it difficult to get financing. My view is that any new large-scale renewable energy projects should be carefully reviewed and environmental impacts minimized – keeping in mind that alternative fossil fuel power is likely to have serious environmental consequences itself. At: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/24/business/energy-environment/24solar.html

The Philadelphia Inquirer for Feb. 16 has an article titled, NJ wind project still blowing forward. Fishermen’s Energy of New Jersey is hoping to build the first U.S. offshore wind farm in state waters off Atlantic City. It will be small – 6 turbines with a combined capacity in strong wind of 25 MW – but could be first, since the permitting process is simpler in state waters close to shore. One thing that will help the financing is Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) whose price has yet to be determined but which were established in principle by the NJ Board of Public Utilities. RECS provide a way to reimburse the generator on the basis of the number of MWh (megawatt-hours) generated. A REC worth $100 per MWh would pay the generator 10¢/kWh. At: http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/greenliving/Wind_projects_still_blowing_forward.html

PennEnergy has a February 18 article titled, Vestas, WindPlus enter floating offshore wind turbine project agreement. Vestas, a global leader in wind technology, has signed an agreement with WindPlus, a joint venture company, to test the combination of a Vestas 2 MW turbine and a WindFloat semi submersible floating platform (presumably tethered to the ocean floor). If successful, this will open up large areas of the ocean deeper than available to current offshore wind turbines, which are mounted on a monopole driven into the sea floor at depths of 50 m or less. At:
http://www.pennenergy.com/index/power/display/3623685421/articles/pennenergy/power/renewable/2011/february/vestas_-windplus_enter.html

On Feb. 28 Andrew Restuccia in E2 Wire posted an article titled, Report: Regional cap-and-trade program improved state economies. He wrote that, contrary to the claims of some, that the 10-state Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative has provided a number of economic benefits to the states involved. Eighty percent of the proceeds raised by the states by the sale of CO2 emission allowances has been used to improve energy efficiency and promote renewable energy – resulting in $3-4 in cost savings for every $1 invested – while promoting green jobs. It has been a win-win for the environment and the economy. At: http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/677-e2-wire/146475-report-regional-cap-and-trade-program-improved-state-economies

Brian Vastag has an article in the March 6 Washington Post titled, Shifting spring: Arctic plankton blooming up to 50 days earlier now. Satellite photos show both the earlier retreat of Arctic sea ice in the summer and the earlier blooming of plankton – tiny floating plants and animals at the base of the food chain. The blooms, which appear green because of the chlorophyll in the phytoplankton and last for a week or two, are appearing 50 days earlier than they were just 14 years ago. This could be a real problem for other species. “Ecologists worry that the early blooms could unravel the region's ecosystem and "lead to crashes of the food web".” At: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/03/06/AR2011030602931.html

On March 6 the Sierra Club issued a report by Jennifer Perrone and Mark Kresowik titled, A Clean Northeast – Moving the Northeast Beyond Coal and Toward a Clean Energy Future. It said that the U.S. Northeast (from Maine west and south to New York and Washington DC) spends more than a billion dollars a year to import coal for electricity and has some of the oldest (some 70 years old) and dirtiest power plants in the country – many not far from population centers, which suffer the consequences of the pollution they emit – with the largest number of fatalities in Pennsylvania. The report urges that these coal plants be phased out and replaced by a combination of better energy efficiency and clean renewable energy sources like solar and wind power. At:
http://www.sierraclub.org/coal/resources/downloads/BeyondCoal_NEReport.pdf

On March 8 the EPA announced an update of its eGRID (Emissions and Generated Integrated Resource Database), a user-friendly tool that allows Americans to understand who provides their electrical power and the health and environmental impacts of that electricity generation. eGRID contains emission information for nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2), carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). NOx and SO2 contribute to unhealthy air quality and acid rain, while CO2, CH4 and N2O are greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change. Get information about eGRID at: http://www.epa.gov/egrid
Power Profiler is another, related tool. By entering a Zip code and selecting a utility you can learn about where your electricity comes from and what it does to air quality and the environment. At: http://www.epa.gov/powerprofiler

I recently finished reading World on the Edge: How to Prevent Environmental and Economic Collapse by Lester Brown. It's a great read and is available free online at:
http://www.earth-policy.org/images/uploads/book_files/wotebook.pdf

On March 9 Lester Brown in an Earth Policy Institute Plan B Update titled, Why World Food Prices May Keep Climbing, announced that the cost of grain on the world markets in February was the highest on record – about twice what it was in 2006 – as a result of demand outpacing supply. Consumption was greater than production last year by 60 million tons – made possible by dipping into strategic reserves. Yields suffered last year as a result of droughts in some areas (Russia and the U.S.) and floods in others (Pakistan and Australia). The increase in global oil prices because of fighting in Libya is not helping. At: www.earth-policy.org/plan_b_updates/2011/update92

The March 9 Washington Post had an article by Brian Vastag titled, Ice sheets melting faster than earlier estimates.
(http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/03/09/AR2011030904803.html)
It was based on a paper by E. Rignot and others in Geophysical Research Letters titled, Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise. (http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2011GL046583.shtml) The latter reported that in 2006 the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets lost a combined ice mass of about 465 Gt (billion tons), causing a global sea level rise (SLR) of about 1.3 mm per year. Even more important is that the combined ice mass loss is accelerating at a rate of about 36 Gt/yr2. This means that the rate of loss is increasing by 36 Gt/yr each year. If this acceleration continues, loss of polar ice will be the dominant source of SLR by century’s end.

On March 10 the American Nurses Association (ANA) posted a press release titled, ANA SPEAKS OUT ON HEALTH IMPACT OF PROPOSED CUTS TO EPA BUDGET AT CAPITOL HILL EVENT. The event at the Dirkson Senate Office Building, led by Senator Barbara Boxer of California, included six senators and speakers from a number of professional health care societies. Sarah Bucic, a nurse and founder of the Delaware City Environmental Coalition, spoke eloquently on behalf of the ANA against the efforts of some members of Congress to reduce funding for the EPA, thereby reducing its ability to protect public health. At: http://www.nursingworld.org/FunctionalMenuCategories/MediaResources/PressReleases/2011-PR/Proposed-Cuts-to-EPA-Budget.aspx

Have you lost confidence in the U.S. Congress? The March 13 Washington Post has an article by Darryl Fears titled, EPA chief Lisa Jackson perpetually on Capitol Hill hot seat. The inane questioning of EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson by some Republican members of the House – who want to cut the budget of EPA by 30% so that it won’t have the resources to regulate emissions under the Clean Air Act – beggars belief. Read it for yourself at: http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/epa-chief-lisa-jackson-perpetually-on-capitol-hill-hot-seat/2011/03/08/ABOKT7T_story.html

The University of Delaware’s Professor Willett Kempton - in the College of Earth, Ocean and the Environment - gave a lecture on March 18 in which he said that by 2030 the U.S. could generate 54 GW (gigawatts) of electrical power with offshore wind at a cost of 7 cents/kWh – less than what many electricity suppliers like Delmarva Power and Light are now paying for energy that comes mostly from fossil fuels. Offshore wind power will not only be less expensive, but will come without the huge negative health, climate and national security impacts of failing to phase out fossil fuels. At:
http://www.udel.edu/udaily/2011/mar/wind-energy-kempton-031811.html

In a NY Times article of March 20 titled, Tweety Was Right: Cats are a Bird’s No. 1 Enemy, Elisabeth Rosenthal reported a recent study in the Journal of Ornithology showing that cats kill about 500 million birds each year – about 1000 times the number killed by wind turbines. While that ratio is expected to decrease as wind power becomes a major supplier of electricity, cats will still be a major killer – second only to collisions with buildings, windows, and towers. At: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/21/science/21birds.html?_r=2&hpw
One benefit of offshore wind power is that transmission lines connecting wind farms to each other and to the grid can be under water.

The following items are from the Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI), Carol Werner, Executive Director. Past issues of its newsletter are posted on its website under "publications"  at http://www.eesi.org/publications/Newsletters/CCNews/ccnews.htm
EESI’s newsletter is intended for all interested parties, particularly the policymaker community.

UN Official Warns that Climate Change Could Lead to Global Instability

On February 15, in a speech to Spanish lawmakers, Christiana Figueres, head of the UN climate office, warned that unless countries took firm action to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the impact of climate change on water supplies, weather patterns, and sea levels could cause widespread domestic and international conflict. Specifically, Figueres mentioned how climate-related drought, falling crop yields, and competition for water were fueling mass conflict in the Middle East and North Africa, and she urged defense chiefs to invest larger sums of their military budgets in climate change mitigation measures instead of increasing budgets for weaponry. She referred to the January riots in Tunisia over rising food prices, along with government repression and high unemployment, that unseated the country’s longtime president. She noted that a third of all Africans live in drought-prone regions, and that by 2050 as many as 600 million Africans would face difficulty obtaining water. According to military leaders around the world, detrimental effects of climate change can act as “threat multipliers,” which can add stress to nations that already face the burdens of poverty and social instability.
For additional information see: The New York Times, Business Green, AP

Climate Change Impacts Could Cause Massive Food Disruptions

In a Bloomberg television interview on February 15, Olam International Ltd. predicted that global food prices will face “massive disruption” from the impacts of climate change. Diminishing food supplies around the globe have pushed the UN Food & Agriculture Organization’s (UNFAO’s) World Food Price Index to a record for a second month in January. Corn futures rose 90 percent in the past year, while wheat rose 80 percent and soybeans jumped 49 percent due to extreme weather events that ruined harvests in Russia, Australia, Canada, and parts of Europe. Shrinking food supplies around the globe have made food less available and more expensive, which has prompted governments to increase their purchasing of food commodities such as corn and wheat. While food prices have become too high for some developing countries to buy agricultural products, which raises the risk of food riots, other countries that have intensified their food hoarding have seen little impact on prices because supplies are sufficient. Stockpiles of corn and wheat are dwindling while demand is rising. According to analysts, globally, farmers will need two perfect harvests during 2012 to bring stockpiles back to acceptable levels. Olam officials expressed that the world currently is experiencing disruptions with grains, cotton, and coffee, which will keep food prices high.
For additional information see: Bloomberg

Climate and Energy-Related Shareholder Resolutions Increase for Oil, Coal, Power Companies

On February 17, investors announced the filing of 66 climate and energy-related shareholder resolutions with 41 coal, electric power, and oil companies in the 2011 proxy season, which makes 2011 a record year for shareholder participation in the energy sector. This marked a 50 percent increase in resolutions over the 44 resolutions filed last year. Thus far, a total of 96 resolutions concerning energy and climate have been filed with U.S. companies, which includes businesses with a more indirect exposure to climate-related trends such as real estate, building, financial services, and food firms. Ceres, a green investor group, helped coordinate the filings. An official explained that challenges facing the energy sector are more complicated than before, so investors are worried that companies are placing too much emphasis on higher-risk carbon-intensive strategies rather than exploring viable clean energy opportunities.
For additional information see: CNBC, PR Newswire, Ceres Press Release

Climate Change Poses Risk to Investors

On February 16, the global investment consultancy Mercer released a report which found that institutional investors could lose trillions of dollars in future decades as a result of climate change. Mercer described climate change as a systemic risk because it challenges the conventional allocation of assets and requires new ways of assessing change risks and climate policy, such as global warming policy raising the cost of carbon emissions from power companies, aluminum smelters, and transportation. Some of the risks related to climate change include more extreme weather, continued delay in climate policy by national governments, and uncertainty over a new global climate pact. while the report found renewable energy, agriculture, and infrastructure as opportunities. The report, written as an investment guide, examined four climate policy scenarios, which ranged from regional divergence on climate change policy action to a total breakdown in efforts to fight climate change. The study found that the costs of impacts on the environment, health, and food security, mostly related to adaptation spending, could exceed $4 trillion by 2030. Needed investment in low-carbon technologies could exceed $5 trillion by 2030. The authors also estimated a $110 per ton cost on carbon emissions in the most likely scenario, but added that continued delayed action on climate change could result in $220 per ton cost on carbon by 2030. They concluded that taking action earlier on climate policy was the least disruptive course of action and the best scenario for investors.
For additional information see: Reuters, Asset International for Institutional Chief Investment Officers, Sustainable Business

Major Precipitation Events Linked to Human Climate Change Activity

On February 16, a study published in Nature found that the increase in heavy precipitation in many countries is partially due to human influence on atmospheric patterns, mainly through releasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) by burning fossil fuels. The researchers used computer models to analyze trends from 1951-1999 to find out whether the increase in severe weather events could be explained by natural variability in the atmosphere, and concluded that it could not. The key finding of the study was that the likelihood of an extreme precipitation event occurring on any given day had risen by 7 percent since the 1950s, a percentage “well outside the bounds of natural variability,” according to researchers. A rise in the frequency of weather extremes related to precipitation has been an underlying prediction of climate scientists for decades, but this study was the first of its kind to attribute heavy precipitation events to global warming.
For additional information see: The New York Times, NPR, Nature, Time , Sydney Morning Herald

Earth Could Get Warmer Even with Zero Emissions Scenario

On February 15, a study published by researchers at the University of Washington in Geophysical Research Letters found that global warming will continue even if all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions stopped, since GHG levels already emitted are likely to persist in the atmosphere for thousands of years. The authors said this is because aerosols, tiny particles in the atmosphere that reflect solar energy back into space and counteract global warming, would only stay in the atmosphere a few weeks once emissions stopped, while GHGs would continue to trap heat in the atmosphere. The current global temperature is already about 1.5°F higher than pre-Industrial Revolution levels, and in the best-case scenario, the global temperature would decline, but remain 0.5°F more than pre-Industrial Revolution levels. It is also possible that temperatures would rise to 3.5°F higher than pre-Industrial levels, which climate scientists say is a threshold temperature for climate-related damage to occur. The study’s authors noted that the overall effect of aerosols is the largest uncertainty in climate research, but they were confident that some warming would occur even if all emissions stopped now.
For additional information see: Science Daily, Study Abstract

Study Estimates 190 Billion Tons of Carbon Released from Permafrost by 2200

On February 16, a study by University of Colorado Boulder researchers published in the journal Tellus found that up to 190 billion tons of carbon could be released into the atmosphere from thawing permafrost due to climate change, which is the equivalent of half the amount of carbon that has been released into the atmosphere since the Industrial era began. If the planet warms at a faster pace, up to 60 percent of Earth’s permanently frozen ground will disappear by 2200 as a result of warming temperatures, emitting massive quantities of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere and further speeding up climate change. Previous studies have shown that carbon has begun to leak out of permafrost in Alaska and Siberia, but this is the first study to make estimates of future carbon release from thawing permafrost. According to scientists, carbon that would be released from melting permafrost must be incorporated into global warming strategies and models because if the released carbon from permafrost is not accounted for, we will overshoot the desired atmospheric CO2 concentration and end up with a warmer climate than intended. The authors of the study noted that humans can slow down the thaw rate by cutting emissions now, staving off the worst-case scenario of rapidly melting permafrost releasing huge amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere.
For additional information see: Science Daily, AFP, The Canadian Press, Study Abstract

Denmark and Britain Call for Bigger EU Emissions Cuts

On February 24, Denmark and Britain called on fellow European Union (EU) members to adopt more ambitious targets for cutting carbon emissions, while Denmark presented its own vision for energy supplies in 2050, showing how it could become independent of coal, oil, and natural gas by mid-century. In a joint statement, Danish Minister for Climate and Energy Lykke Friis and British Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change Chris Huhne, said the EU’s forthcoming 2050 road map needs to offer a “cost-effective, credible and ambitious pathway” to enable member states to take Europe beyond the “cul-de-sac” of the current 20 percent cut target. The EU’s current goal is a 20 percent cut in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2020, compared to 1990 levels. Proponents of a more aggressive goal argue that the EU should move to a 30 percent emissions cut, which they say will give Europe the chance to dominate the global market in clean technology. Meanwhile, a report for the German government found that the current target is too weak to mobilize innovation, and that raising the target level would increase European GDP by up to $842 billion and create 6 million additional jobs. The European Commission likewise found that moving the target higher could be “cost-effective.”
For additional information see: The Guardian, Reuters

Climate Change Could Lead to Greater Exposure to Toxic Chemicals

On February 21, a UN-commissioned report warned that rising global temperatures that cause extreme weather could significantly increase the risk of toxic spills, making it difficult to meet the targets set by the 2004 Stockholm Convention that were designed to reduce exposure to 21 dangerous chemicals. The report said that risks of exposure could increase if more stockpiles and landfills leak due to flooding, or other extreme weather, since chemicals stored in stockpiles or waste dumps could wash away, become more volatile, or escape through gas emissions before they are incinerated or safely removed. These chemicals pose a proven risk to human and environmental health, as they persist in human bodies and can damage reproductive systems, lead to mental health problems, cause cancer, or impede growth. The report also said that climate change could lead to greater use of some pesticides, such as DDT, which is used to control malaria. Warmer temperatures could also make the chemicals more volatile because vapor pressure increases exponentially with temperature, and added heat will make them more volatile.
For additional information see: Business Green, AP

Frequent, Extensive Fires Turns Alaskan Forests From Carbon Stores to Generators

On February 20, a study published in the journal Nature Geoscience found that climate change is causing wildfires to burn larger areas of Alaskan trees and char the groundcover more severely, turning black spruce forests from carbon sinks into carbon sources. Scientists said that Alaskan soils have acted as huge carbon sinks since the proliferation of black spruce forests, but with more frequent and extensive burning in recent decades, the forests have lost more carbon in fire events than they have historically been able to take up between fires. A significant portion of forest carbon is stored in moss, peat, and leaf litter layers that cover the ground, which are most likely to burn in a fire. In addition to releasing carbon emissions, burning the ground layer affects the regulation of soil climate, maintenance of permafrost, and the types of tree that can grow back. New forests likely to grow back after repeated fires would likely be weaker carbon sinks than black spruce forests.
For additional information see: Science Daily, Study Abstract

Warming Leads to Prolonged Allergy Season in North America

On February 21, a study published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found that increased warming, particularly in the northern portion of North America, correlates to the prolonged fall pollen season. The research found that from 1995 to 2009, ragweed pollen season has increased by 16 days in Minneapolis; 13 days in LaCrosse, WI; 25 days in Winnipeg, Canada; and 27 days in Saskatoon, Canada. Upper latitudes have been warming faster than lower latitudes, and scientists and health officials found no appreciable warming in Texas, Arkansas, or Oklahoma. According to the Asthma and Allergy Foundation of America, about 50 million Americans have allergies. In many cases, allergies can trigger more severe problems like asthma, and one of the dangers with the lengthening season is pollen’s potential to overwhelm immune systems. The findings support a 2010 study by the National Wildlife Federation that found ragweed growth rates and pollen counts increased with global warming.
For additional information see: The Daily Climate, Science Daily, Study Abstract

Upton and Inhofe File Bill to Permanently Block EPA from Regulating GHGs

On March 3, Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK) and Rep. Fred Upton (R-MI) introduced legislation intended to block the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) from regulating greenhouse gases (GHGs) from power plants, factories, and refineries. Named the “Energy Tax Prevention Act”, the companion bills, H.R. 910 and S. 482, have 9 co-sponsors in the House, including Democrats Nick Rahall (D-WV), Dan Boren (D-OK), and Collin Peterson (D-MN), and, in the Senate, 42 Republican co-sponsors as well as Joe Manchin (D-WV). The bill would allow many of the Clean Air Act programs to continue, but prevent the EPA from using its authority regulate carbon dioxide. A deal brokered with the automobile industry to limit GHGs from cars and light trucks would be allowed to continue until 2016, but not further. State-adopted GHG regulations would be allowed to continue. Rep. Upton is Chair of the House Energy and Commerce Committee. Sen. Inhofe is the ranking member of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee.
For additional information see: New York Times , Politico, AP, Bill Information

RGGI Member States Invest $404 Million In Efficiency

On February 28, member states of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), a greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction program, announced in a report that they have invested more than half their carbon permit auction proceeds, roughly $404 million, into energy efficiency. To meet its goal of a 10 percent reduction in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2018, the RGGI holds quarterly auctions of CO2 permits, which have raised nearly $780 million since 2008 despite a recent dip in auction prices to $2 a short ton. About 80 percent of the proceeds have gone to programs that cut energy demand, foster the growth of alternative energy, and help the poor pay energy bills, while 52 percent of the proceeds have gone specifically to programs to improve energy efficiency, such as replacing boilers and caulking windows in businesses and homes. The RGGI called the energy efficiency programs the most cost-effective tool for reducing GHG emissions.
For additional information see: Reuters, RGGI Report Press Release

China’s Environmental Minister Issues Warning on Economic Development and Climate

On February 28, China’s Environment Minister Zhou Shengxian issued a warning about the effects of unrestrained development on China’s air, water, and soil quality, saying that the nation’s current path could stifle long-term economic growth and fuel social instability. China has become the leading emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs), due to its growth in energy consumption, its dependence on coal for 70 percent of its energy needs, and its increasing demand for oil. Mr. Zhou said the government will take a more aggressive role in determining whether development initiatives contribute to climate change through a new risk assessment system. Mr. Zhou’s comments were echoed by Prime Minister Wen Jiabao on the same day, who suggested that the nation would seek to embrace tighter environmental regulations this week. “We must not any longer sacrifice the environment for the sake of rapid growth and reckless roll-outs,” said Mr. Wen, who lowered China’s target for average GDP growth, from 7.5 percent to 7 percent, in a move that suggested China would reconsider emphasizing economic growth above all else.
For additional information see: The New York Times, Reuters, BBC

Climate Change Threatening Survival of Lodgepole Pine in Pacific Northwest

On February 28, a study published in the journal Climatic Change found that the range of the lodgepole pine tree is shrinking as a result of climate change, and could disappear from most of the Pacific Northwest by 2080. Warming temperatures, less winter precipitation, earlier loss of snowpack, and more summer drought appear to be affecting the range of the lodgepole pine, while simultaneously attracting bark beetles that attack the tree species. The lodgepole pine thrives in cold temperatures and plays a key role in many ecosystems in western North America, but scientists predict that the tree will only be able to survive in 17 percent of its current habitable range. The pine can occupy vast areas following major fires where extreme cold temperatures, poor soils, and branch-breaking snows make it difficult for other tree species to compete or survive. According to the study, climate change forces will have decreased the Pacific Northwest range of lodgepole pine by 8 percent by 2020, and by 2080, scientists predict that it will be almost absent from Oregon, Washington, and Idaho.
For additional information see: EurekAlert, The New York Times, Science Daily, Oregon State University Press Release, Study Abstract

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Coalition for Climate Change Study and Action